[rohan22no]

Mate - this is A1 analysis - awesome work! I'd been working on my own excel models on this for ages but just never had the time to finish them due to work commitments, I'd always suspected that large underdogs were +EV to "blind bet", and as mentioned I saw someone do the same analysis for NFL once as well.

Like you alluded to, the scenarios I'd be very interested in are basically "week after" scenarios. A few in particular:

- A Top 8 team that gets beaten by more than 10 points (8 points? 6 points? Have to find the "sweet spot"), and their ATS result the next week. I don't blind bet this but it's my immediate filter when looking at the weeks games. Top teams rebounding combined with lines inflated/deflated by betting public only looking at their last results.
- A Bottom 8 team that causes an upset and their ATS result the next week. I bet a profitabe "system" in tennis like this, pretty much blind betting any player that has an unexpected "huge upset". This was a cash cow at the recent Wimbledon for example. Classic let down angle ...
- A home underdog of 4+ points, 6+ points ... which leads me to thinking what do the $3+ underdog results look like home vs away? Is there a more profitable angle with this filter or not?

I've worked a fair bit with Excel and have access to guys here at work who live and breath the stuff all day, so I could help crack any problem pretty quickly I'd say. Let's talk.

Mate would love a copy of that. Unfortunately I'm in one of those jobs that forces to be an excel guru. Maybe we can put our heads together and work on this

Will PM you guys

S2230011 - I cant PM you for some reason...

[minathomas88]

Yokohama vs man united tonight double result Man U- Man U paying $1.80

Anyone know much about Yokohama? I think that's a nice bet

[shevabets]

All Sports Record

NBA +51.47 units

Total units won/lost in 9 months of posting plays @ SBR = +113.97 units

That's impressive on so many levels. Obviously, with 1-2 more seasons under your belt, e.g. 'posted on the forum', the numbers would look that much more credible, but none of the paid services I pay attention to (only a couple, including the 'best handicapper in the industry you mentioned earlier) have ever had a season this good. Not after they 'went tout'. If you did that tomorrow, hundreds of people would be very pi**ed off - but I would pay you in a split second.

Don't get me wrong. It's that much better when it's free! Thanks for sharing the love!

[rohan22no]

- A home underdog of 4+ points, 6+ points ... which leads me to thinking what do the $3+ underdog results look like home vs away? Is there a more profitable angle with this filter or not?

Here we go Benrama (and others)

Betting on HOME TEAMS ONLY. Same sample size as before (2004 - 2013 rd 17)

Betsize $100

Odds greater than 2
no of games 1882
no of bets 751
no of wins 304
Strikerate 40.48%
Outlay 75100
P/L 8356
ROI 0.11

Odds greater than 3
no of games 1882
no of bets 181
no of wins 58
Strikerate 32.04%
Outlay 18100
P/L 5295
ROI 0.29

Odds greater than 3.5
no of games 1882
no of bets 111
no of wins 32
Strikerate 28.83%
Outlay 11100
P/L 3934
ROI 0.35

Odds greater than 4
no of games 1882
no of bets 74
no of wins 22
Strikerate 29.73%
Outlay 7400
P/L 3876
ROI 0.52

I could keep going if it not for sample size issues, but I dont think I need to. A clear trend.

[rohan22no]

It looks as though around 2.5+ is optimal...

Odds greater than 2.5
no of games 1882
no of bets 424
no of wins 161
Strikerate 37.97%
Outlay 42400
P/L 9193
ROI 0.22

[benrama]

Here we go Benrama (and others)

Betting on HOME TEAMS ONLY. Same sample size as before (2004 - 2013 rd 17)

Betsize $100

Odds greater than 2
no of games 1882
no of bets 751
no of wins 304
Strikerate 40.48%
Outlay 75100
P/L 8356
ROI 0.11

Odds greater than 3
no of games 1882
no of bets 181
no of wins 58
Strikerate 32.04%
Outlay 18100
P/L 5295
ROI 0.29

Odds greater than 3.5
no of games 1882
no of bets 111
no of wins 32
Strikerate 28.83%
Outlay 11100
P/L 3934
ROI 0.35

Odds greater than 4
no of games 1882
no of bets 74
no of wins 22
Strikerate 29.73%
Outlay 7400
P/L 3876
ROI 0.52

I could keep going if it not for sample size issues, but I dont think I need to. A clear trend.

Wow - that's an amazing set of stats. It says you need simply back every single home dog, year in and year out and you'll end up long term profitable. You are getting about 75 bets per year too, so you won't be waiting months and months to ride out the variance.

I feel this is more long term "sustainable" as well, as I don't feel home advantage is quite factored into NRL lines like it should be - at least I don't think the betting public adjusts for it accurately, particularly for teams like Newcastle, Saints, Penrith, Tigers - places where you have outright hostile, more suburban/regional crowds - i.e. clear home grounds.

BTW, just saw your PM, will get to it now.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Wow - that's an amazing set of stats. It says you need simply back every single home dog, year in and year out and you'll end up long term profitable. You are getting about 75 bets per year too, so you won't be waiting months and months to ride out the variance.

I feel this is more long term "sustainable" as well, as I don't feel home advantage is quite factored into NRL lines like it should be - at least I don't think the betting public adjusts for it accurately, particularly for teams like Newcastle, Saints, Penrith, Tigers - places where you have outright hostile, more suburban/regional crowds - i.e. clear home grounds.

BTW, just saw your PM, will get to it now.

I agree regarding suburban/regional crowds, not all home ground advantages are the same but it is also circumstantial depending upon the opposition. North Queensland will find it much tougher against Sydney Roosters at the SFS than South Sydney would. I'm of the opinion that home teams are actually given too much credit on neutral venues. Officials need to be considered as well, some are more blatantly biased towards the home side than others.

[rohan22no]

Ive done studies on HGA such as sydney teams playing out of state vs playing other sydney teams, and also taken that account when doing the betting models.

I've found that over my sample (large), travel seems to have had almost no effect on teams, and a HGA of a sydney team vs another sydney team is as much as 2 non sydney teams playing each other in a different state....very weird!

[Dr.Gonzo]

Ive done studies on HGA such as sydney teams playing out of state vs playing other sydney teams, and also taken that account when doing the betting models.

I've found that over my sample (large), travel seems to have had almost no effect on teams, and a HGA of a sydney team vs another sydney team is as much as 2 non sydney teams playing each other in a different state....very weird!

Market must be doing a better job accounting for these circumstances or it just defies logic and doesn't matter, I'd imagine it'd be the former.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Ive done studies on HGA such as sydney teams playing out of state vs playing other sydney teams, and also taken that account when doing the betting models.

I've found that over my sample (large), travel seems to have had almost no effect on teams, and a HGA of a sydney team vs another sydney team is as much as 2 non sydney teams playing each other in a different state....very weird!

I use a method whereby at the start of the season, each HG is worth a set amount of points advantage.
As the season progresses, I then start adjusting the HGA and AGD (Away Ground Disadvantage) for each team depending on whether or not they cover the spread or not.
For example, let's say take Warriors v Panthers at Mt Smart Stadium.
The teams have the same power rating, so that cancels out, meaning the game would be a pick (evens) at a neutral venue.
Playing at home, the Warriors get a 2 point advantage, so the game handicap is Warriors -2/ Panthers +2.
If the final result falls in the range of + or - 6 (meaning Warriors win by 8 or Panthers win by 4, then there is no change to the HGA/AGD.
If the result falls outside this range, then adjust the HGA/AGD up or down, depending on the result.
If the Warriors win by more than 8, adjust their HGA up and the AGD for the Panthers down, and vice versa for a Panthers win of more than 4.

This method gives you a better feel for how a team is playing at home/away for the current season.
Instead of blindly saying that the Tigers are specials at Leichhardt, that particular season they may be struggling at that venue.
This season, some examples are Raiders, Roosters and Knights very strong at home, while the Eels are terrible away from home.

Then for each game, you take the average of the HGA and AGD for each team.

[rohan22no]

Hey guys,
Have done some analysis on the HGA of Sydney teams when playing each other vs Other games (any game which does not involve 2 Sydney teams).

Sydney Teams = Roosters, Bulldogs, Tigers, Eels, Rabbitohs, Panthers, Sharks, Sea Eagles

Others = Dragons, Cowboys, Storm, Warriors, Knights, Raiders, Titans, Broncos

Games between Sydney Teams
Total Games 469
Avg Home Score 23.8
Avg Away Score 20.7
Difference 3.1
% homewin 55.9%
Median Home Odds $1.74
Median Away Odds $2.22


Games including at least 1 non Sydney Team

Total Games 1412
Avg Home Score 23.4
Avg Away Score 18.7
Difference 4.7
% homewin 58.8%
Median Home Odds $1.63
Median Away Odds $2.43

Conclusion - Pretty much in line with logic here, there is still a HGA between sydney teams, but its very small - the home team only scores on average 3 points more than the away team, whereas in games with at least 1-non sydney team, the HGA is closer to 5 points. The odds at first glance seem to adequately adjust for this.

[RedDevil89]

Hey guys I've got my eye on two games for tomorrow's MLB!

Ive had a pretty full on night with soccer training and coming to find my wife and mother in tears after getting a visit from the cops to question me for investigation! Seems like a distant family member of my wife who had a phone shop and from whom I purchased my phone plan a few years ago to help him out as they get paid on commission for each sale etc! Long story short the cops had a license, and other I.d in my name with my details but this persons picture! They also said they had CCTV footage and asked my wife pictures of me to for confirmation that it wasn't indeed myself on these copies of my I.Ds! Going through mixed emotions so I'm not in the best state of mind to be capping! I had these games before so ill post them! I probably won't bother looking into any more!

2 x Units - St Louis Cardials ML ($1.45) v PHI Phillies

ST Louis are the home favourites and rightly so they are in better form! The pitching, lineup, form all favouring the home team and are the play here!

2 x Units - Chicago Cubs VS Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 8 runs ($1.95 centrebet) WOOD / CORBIN MUST PITCH

We missed out on this one due to pitcher change after posting! It still came through, both teams are struggling with the bat and are making the pitchers look good! CHI replacement pitcher had an ERA of 8.0runs and the game still finished under! I like the pitching lineup tomorrow and it looks like its going to be another low scoring affair and the books know it! TAB, sportsbet and bet365 hasn't even released the lines yet so get on quilck! Once released I think it will get pounded!

[rohan22no]

I use a method whereby at the start of the season, each HG is worth a set amount of points advantage.
As the season progresses, I then start adjusting the HGA and AGD (Away Ground Disadvantage) for each team depending on whether or not they cover the spread or not.
For example, let's say take Warriors v Panthers at Mt Smart Stadium.
The teams have the same power rating, so that cancels out, meaning the game would be a pick (evens) at a neutral venue.
Playing at home, the Warriors get a 2 point advantage, so the game handicap is Warriors -2/ Panthers +2.
If the final result falls in the range of + or - 6 (meaning Warriors win by 8 or Panthers win by 4, then there is no change to the HGA/AGD.
If the result falls outside this range, then adjust the HGA/AGD up or down, depending on the result.
If the Warriors win by more than 8, adjust their HGA up and the AGD for the Panthers down, and vice versa for a Panthers win of more than 4.

This method gives you a better feel for how a team is playing at home/away for the current season.
Instead of blindly saying that the Tigers are specials at Leichhardt, that particular season they may be struggling at that venue.
This season, some examples are Raiders, Roosters and Knights very strong at home, while the Eels are terrible away from home.

Then for each game, you take the average of the HGA and AGD for each team.

Hey TGM,
Interesting thoughts. I think your model is very similar to mine, we're probably just using different words for what is essentially the same thing.

In your Warriors v Panthers example, the Warriors have a 2 point HGA. Thats fine, but why change the "HGA" for them based on one result?

HGA, in its purest sense, basically never changes, at most, a fraction of a point season to season.

HGA is defined as a home teams "natural" advantage over a visiting team and is based on 3 variables that are always present and are applicable to all sports.

1. Ground familiarity - things such being aware of the surface characteristics (an extreme example would be India's cricket pitches), being familiar with the climate, knowing where the dressing rooms are, NOT having to travel, and generally the feeling of familiarity of being at home.

2. Crowd Support - The old saying of the crowd being like an extra player for the home team. This also includes referee bias towards the home team.

3. Travel fatigue/ground unfamiliarity by the away team - self explanatory. Most prevalent in sports where teams have to travel internationally to play and in different climates (super 15 rugby).

Credit to a journal by Prof. Stephen Clarke for the above info (Professor of sports statistics at RMIT university and a sports modeller specializing in AFL since the early 80's).

Applying this all to NRL - most teams have an *almost* constant HGA.

TGM, where you say "it gives you a feel of how a team are performing at home/away for the current season", I think its more a feel of just how a team is playing generally. If the warriors (or any other team) are playing well at home, their probably playing well away too. Yes, there are exceptions to the rule - but its just variance.

For eg - Raiders have always had a stronger than average HGA, yet last year they hardly won a game at home. Was there a change in HGA? No. They just happened to play shit in those handful of games. This year we have seen a return to the norm where Raiders play far better at home than they do away.

So TGM, you've obviously got a very successful model happening there, I'm thinking instead of using the terms HGA/AGD in the sense that you do, simply call them the team ratings (which definitely can change from week to week!) and leave the true HGA/AGD as a long term based of several seasons of evidence.

[sando]

Ive had a pretty full on night with soccer training and coming to find my wife and mother in tears after getting a visit from the cops to question me for investigation!

Congratulations on becoming a father. Women always get more emotional when they're pregnant, just make her a pot of tea and a foot massage and she will be fine.

[sando]

Concacaf Gold Cup
USA v Honduras
2* USA -1 & -1.5 ($1.85 Pinnacle)
The Americans are in fabulous form and playing at home against an under strength Honduras list,missing 5 key players (Bernadez, Garrido, Figueroa, Garcia, Bengston) for this encounter. If the Yanks win this match then World Cup qualification is assured, so suffice to say no shortage of motivation, plus the USA’s last relevant loss was to Honduras (in Honduras), so again some probable added motivation.Otherwise the Americans have had 1 loss, (a friendly to Belgium) and have since then been on a 9 match winning streak, averaging 3.45 goals per game and with a crazy 31/7 goal differential. In the QF’s against El Salvador, American talisman Landon Donovan burst back onto the scene with an outstanding 90 minute effort all across the park. Super sub Johnson scored after being on the pitch for 14 seconds and defensive rock Besler was impressive all night in a 5-1 beat down of the Central Americans. Such is the depth of American soccer at the moment that they could probably field 2 competitive national teams and even the great Donovan is not guaranteed a spot in the world cup squad. Honduras under strength and on the road playing against a red hot team who is playing the best football they have produced in years. USA 3-1.

[Rugby21]

Concacaf Gold Cup
USA v Honduras
2* USA -1 & -1.5 ($1.85 Pinnacle)
The Americans are in fabulous form and playing at home against an under strength Honduras list,missing 5 key players (Bernadez, Garrido, Figueroa, Garcia, Bengston) for this encounter. If the Yanks win this match then World Cup qualification is assured, so suffice to say no shortage of motivation, plus the USA’s last relevant loss was to Honduras (in Honduras), so again some probable added motivation.Otherwise the Americans have had 1 loss, (a friendly to Belgium) and have since then been on a 9 match winning streak, averaging 3.45 goals per game and with a crazy 31/7 goal differential. In the QF’s against El Salvador, American talisman Landon Donovan burst back onto the scene with an outstanding 90 minute effort all across the park. Super sub Johnson scored after being on the pitch for 14 seconds and defensive rock Besler was impressive all night in a 5-1 beat down of the Central Americans. Such is the depth of American soccer at the moment that they could probably field 2 competitive national teams and even the great Donovan is not guaranteed a spot in the world cup squad. Honduras under strength and on the road playing against a red hot team who is playing the best football they have produced in years. USA 3-1.

Does jozy altidore still get in for USA? Recently signed for Sunderland used to play for my team hull city.

[trigga50]

Was on the wrong side of the picks today, dropping 4 units. Having said this Im loving todays WNBA schedule. Don't have much time for in-depth write ups but here is a quick rundown.

Minnesota -5 @$1.91 X 2 UNITS
UNDER 171.5 @1.90 X 1 UNIT
Minnesota match up extremely well to Phoenix, and they have ripped them apart in 3 other meetings this season. A line of -5 seems too easy here, especially if Griner is out again. Griner is set to miss her 4th straight game with a sprained knee. I also like the under here, Phoenix have adjusted their defence in the absence of Griner and have been playing a pretty solid zone defence, this may slow the pace of Minnesota a bit, and keep the game total below.

Atlanta Dream -6 @$1.91 X 2 UNITS
Atlanta Dream have found some form without super star Lyttle. Having made the appropriate adjustments, I think they should easily cover here against the woeful Tulsa. -6 points seems to easy in this position.

I also like Indiana +5.5 or Washington between 1-10 but haven't put down any bets yet. Washington 1-10 pays $2.75 at Centrebet which would be worth a small play. I think Washington may have a very very slight edge at home, and with the best coach in the business they should be able to learn from their 77-70 point loss a couple of days ago.

WNBA +10.46

Should have taken my gut instinct on Indiana. Minnesota won by 5 so was a push, Under covered easy and lost out on Atlanta who wer'nt even competitive. Although this is my 1st season capping WNBA and I am 10 units up, I have struggled to find consistency. Ive taken my foot off the pedal a bit so Im only taking on my strong leans in hope to hit 20+ units by seasons end. Can't wait for NBA season to start, Ive already booked a couple of weeks annual leave from work to take advantage of the early season lines from the bookies.

Tomorrow around 830AEST NY visit Indiana. Love Indiana in this spot but Im still sweating on Tamika Catchings status for the game. At this stage she is probable to play, she will be key if Indiana are to cover the -7.5 line. NY have been horrible lately going 1-6 of their last 7 games. Indiana recently blew them out when they visited NY, outscoring them 31-6 in the 3rd quarter. Indiana have done the exact opposite going 6-1 climbing their way back into playoff contention. Ill post a play in the morning if I can confirm Tamika is playing.

[Vinnie Paz]

I can't find sandos soccer match??

[Cobra Kai]

I can't find sandos soccer match??

It doesn't start for 30 odd hours

[Grunch]

It's on pinnacle, bet365, ladbrokes. Many books don't have it.

[Vinnie Paz]

Where do I look under bet365? Swear I couldn't find it sorry guys

[Grunch]

Go on soccer and below internationals it says concacaf gold cup. Or under main lists click on international list.

[OZnBa Fan]

Does jozy altidore still get in for USA? Recently signed for Sunderland used to play for my team hull city.

I haven't seen him or Dempsey feature in this tournament so far I don't know why... But when they had the World Cup qualifiers he was scoring flat out just recently, good player..

[swordsandtequila]

Altidore, Dempsey, Tim Howard, etc. aren't playing in this tournament. Their WC spots are assured (Donovan's place on the team also a lock). Klinsmann using Gold Cup to round out the roster, mix of young players and MLS vets fighting it out for last spots on the national team.

[RedDevil89]

Congratulations on becoming a father. Women always get more emotional when they're pregnant, just make her a pot of tea and a foot massage and she will be fine.

Thanks Sando, my wife's due to give birth next Monday! It will be my 2nd god willing! Nothing quite like fatherhood! Mate I've lost count of the number of foot massages and back runs I've had to give haha!

[RedDevil89]

Early soccer pick for tomorrow mornings UEFA Champions league qualifiers.

2 x Units - Nomme Kalju (Est) - HJK Helsinki (Fin) - Under 2.5 goals ($1.90 bet365)

Adding another play on the WTA tennis first round match at BAKU

2 x Units - O.Kalashnikova v T.Martincova - O.Kalashnikova win ($1.71 sportsbet)

Kalashnikova is the more experienced of the two ladies, she has a much better serve and is playing on her favorite surface (hard court). I think her experience, age, height, service, gives her a big mental and physical advantage over her opponent. The tournament being played in Azerbaijan is some very humid conditions and i cant see past Kalashnikova tonight.

Sorry about the two plays yesterday, I got a reminder why i usually choose to steer away from WTA tennis, so inconsistent, Kalashnikova got 80% of her first serves in opposed to Martincova around 45% in the first set and Martincova takes the first set 6-3....go figure.

The soccer was a big upset, Kalju scored two unanswered goals early in the first half, and took the game 2-1. They were actually paying about $5.50 for the win.

Soccer - 0W - 1L
Profit: -2units

Tennis: 0W - 1L
Profit: -2units

[RedDevil89]

Hey guys I've got my eye on two games for tomorrow's MLB!

Ive had a pretty full on night with soccer training and coming to find my wife and mother in tears after getting a visit from the cops to question me for investigation! Seems like a distant family member of my wife who had a phone shop and from whom I purchased my phone plan a few years ago to help him out as they get paid on commission for each sale etc! Long story short the cops had a license, and other I.d in my name with my details but this persons picture! They also said they had CCTV footage and asked my wife pictures of me to for confirmation that it wasn't indeed myself on these copies of my I.Ds! Going through mixed emotions so I'm not in the best state of mind to be capping! I had these games before so ill post them! I probably won't bother looking into any more!

2 x Units - St Louis Cardials ML ($1.45) v PHI Phillies

ST Louis are the home favourites and rightly so they are in better form! The pitching, lineup, form all favouring the home team and are the play here!

2 x Units - Chicago Cubs VS Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 8 runs ($1.95 centrebet) WOOD / CORBIN MUST PITCH

We missed out on this one due to pitcher change after posting! It still came through, both teams are struggling with the bat and are making the pitchers look good! CHI replacement pitcher had an ERA of 8.0runs and the game still finished under! I like the pitching lineup tomorrow and it looks like its going to be another low scoring affair and the books know it! TAB, sportsbet and bet365 hasn't even released the lines yet so get on quilck! Once released I think it will get pounded!

Adding a couple more plays..

1 x Unit - Oakland Athletics ML ($1.59 bet365)

1 x Unit - Chicago cubs v Arizona Dbacks - 1st 5 Innings under 4.0 runs ($1.86 bet365)

[Lilfatbum]

Balfours first blown save since 27/4/12, 44 saves ago, Oakland crap their pants, bad beat Trigga

[RedDevil89]

Hey guys I've got my eye on two games for tomorrow's MLB!

Ive had a pretty full on night with soccer training and coming to find my wife and mother in tears after getting a visit from the cops to question me for investigation! Seems like a distant family member of my wife who had a phone shop and from whom I purchased my phone plan a few years ago to help him out as they get paid on commission for each sale etc! Long story short the cops had a license, and other I.d in my name with my details but this persons picture! They also said they had CCTV footage and asked my wife pictures of me to for confirmation that it wasn't indeed myself on these copies of my I.Ds! Going through mixed emotions so I'm not in the best state of mind to be capping! I had these games before so ill post them! I probably won't bother looking into any more!

2 x Units - St Louis Cardials ML ($1.45) v PHI Phillies WIN

ST Louis are the home favourites and rightly so they are in better form! The pitching, lineup, form all favouring the home team and are the play here!

2 x Units - Chicago Cubs VS Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 8 runs ($1.95 centrebet) WOOD / CORBIN MUST PITCH LOSS

We missed out on this one due to pitcher change after posting! It still came through, both teams are struggling with the bat and are making the pitchers look good! CHI replacement pitcher had an ERA of 8.0runs and the game still finished under! I like the pitching lineup tomorrow and it looks like its going to be another low scoring affair and the books know it! TAB, sportsbet and bet365 hasn't even released the lines yet so get on quilck! Once released I think it will get pounded!

Adding a couple more plays..

1 x Unit - Oakland Athletics ML ($1.59 bet365) LOSS

1 x Unit - Chicago cubs v Arizona Dbacks - 1st 5 Innings under 4.0 runs ($1.86 bet365) WIN

WOW...Oakland go into bottom of the 9th leading 4-2 and lose 5-4!! Talk about a bad beat!! Would have been a profitable day if not for that!!

MLB for the day: 2W - 2L
Profit: -1.24 Units

MLB TOTAL: 6W - 4L
Profit: +1.32 Units

[s2230011]

Let's hope not, above 120 metres I think it stops being an auto play. He's a very versatile player and goes looking for the ball, I'm actually surprised St George didn't use him more last night. Maybe I was more conscious of it because of the player prop bet but I was surprised how many times he wasn't being used on his side of the field, or he would move towards taking the one-out and it would be passed to someone else.

What site are you using for player stats? (If any)

I use a couple but the best one is foxsports, although not easy to find this view but there is a player stats page then the game log tab

eg. http://www.foxsports.com.au/league/p...ale&team=55012

rohan22no .. thanks mate, something is wrong with my inbox looks like I cant send either, I am trying to get it fixed. Thanks, I will let you know once its up and running

[davopnz]

paddypower got an option time of last goal upto and including 79th minute in the man city game, the match is only 80 minutes because of heavy rain....

[Cobra Kai]

I'm liking the OVER 155 in the Chicago Sky/Washington game later on tonight.

Trig if your around or anyone else for that matter, thoughts?

[RedDevil89]

MLB picks for tomorrow!!

2 x Units - Miami Marlins v Colorado Rockies Under 9.5 runs ($1.80 Bet365)

2 x Units - Detroit Tigers ML v Chicago White sox ($1.80 Centrebet)
Detroit are in hot form as of late and the white sox are playing some uninspired ball with alot of mistakes! I'm all over the Tigers here!

1 x Unit - Seattle Mariners ML v Cleveland Indians ($1.97 Bet365)
Seattle are on fire. They are really hitting the ball - average of 6 from their past 6 ... Saunders is very solid at home however Kazmir is no slouch. @ $1.88 this average team has just enough value.

Goodluck!!

[MrXYZ]

I'm liking the OVER 155 in the Chicago Sky/Washington game later on tonight.

Trig if your around or anyone else for that matter, thoughts?

I'm on it for 1 unit, line is pretty sharp though. Sky will get plenty of second chances off the boards and we'll need Mystics to bounce back after their worst game of the season.

[trigga50]

I'm liking the OVER 155 in the Chicago Sky/Washington game later on tonight.

Trig if your around or anyone else for that matter, thoughts?

Yeah this is my favourite look for tomorrow, Im not too concerned about Washington's last game against Indiana, their defence is the best in the league and it doesn't take much for their opposition to post low totals. The last game these two teams played went well over the current total. Both teams have good pace and will match up well on the floor.

Im still in the process of crunching numbers on Chicagos shooting % on the road VS Washington, but the over looks like the play

Im also intrigued at Phoenix and Minnesota. Phoenix will have a rough night with even more injuries to their depleted squad. Its likely only 8 players will take the court tomorrow, They have even signed a new player for a 7 day contract to help get through the next few games. New players midway through the season on a 7 day contract is normally bad news. -15 is a massive line, but if Minny have enough motivation at home, they should easily put away this Phoenix team.