[davopnz]

do you really think luxbet are going to keep letting you make accounts?

[Hawke]

They're always one step ahead.

[Domestic]

Obviously you can't keep making accounts at books, especially Australian ones but on the topic of luxbet they often email out $100 free bets on $25 deposit offers. I'd say I get about 5 or 6 of them per year, pretty nifty.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

S2230011 & Benny. Fox Sports have Tamou 94m & Myles 90m. The books go off official NRL match stats, however obviously they are wrong on this one as Luxbet have already paid out on Tamou (as anyone who tailed can also confirm). The rest were all clear winners or losers. That one prop was the only one in dispute.

On a side note imagine how much money you could make on props if you simply were part of the coaching staff or close to one of the players. For example if you knew that team A was going to hammer team B's fullback under the high ball all night, well then you would be very interested in prop markets available on team B's fullback. Simply knowing (or correctly deducing) a team's game plan allow's you to beat the markets set by the books, irrelevant of the inherent value in said markets that may or may not be present? Of course how long you could pump such small betting markets without drawing attention from your books is another concept entirely.

Just ask Ryan Tandy

[Rugby21]

Have a big super league play for this Friday! Widnes -8 at home to London. London are resting all their big players for the semi final the following week against a Wigan. They will have no soward and Witt their two half backs, their captain clubb is also being rested along with a couple of backs. Widnes have being strong at home and score a lot of points there. I'd expect the line to go off at 10-12. Get on ASAP!

[rohan22no]

What book rugby21? Cant see it available to bet on yet..

[Rugby21]

What book rugby21? Cant see it available to bet on yet..

Bet365 mate, only one showing a line yet

[Rugby21]

Bet365 mate, only one showing a line yet

Just moved to -10 already!

[rohan22no]

nice, i got on -8 @ 1.83

[Shazzadude]

Do you think 13+ will be easy cash?

[Rugby21]

Do you think 13+ will be easy cash?

I'd deffo recommend 13+!

[sando]

NRL

Gold Coast @ Manly

The Titans are the most out of form side in the comp with heavy defeats by 30 to the Knights and then 22 to the Panthers in their last two games.

The Sea Eagles are the hottest team in the comp post origin, backing up their 40 point demolition job of the Eels with a 20 point beat-down on the Cowboys.

Manly are 5-3 at home with an average winning margin of 22.3 points (All games at fortress Brookvale bar one @ BS). The losses being to competition heavyweights the Bunnies & the Roosters and a 2 point loss to the 'doggies in a high scoring affair. The Titans are 2-5 on the road with an average loosing margin of 13 points.

Forwards - Like the Cowboys last week, the Titans lose their 2 main men for this one, being Myles & Bird, which also drops their pack from being a V8 down to a 4 cylinder. The Sea Eagles regain Watmough in the 2nd row (Sao dropping out) and yet despite having lost Galuvao, King, the promising young Symonds from their forward line and also with an injury cloud hovering over big Georgie Rose, they still have one of the best packs getting around. Ominously Glenn Stewart has come out this week and and vowed publicly he will improve after an ordinary performance against the Cowboys. Stewart is the heart & soul of Manly and at his best is still one of the games best all round forwards.

Backs - Manly with the hottest 3/4 line in the comp. Tafua, Wolfman, Snake and Matai just smashing teams at the moment. Combined with their halves the Manly back line is the most start studded in the comp, with current or former representative players at every position from 1-7 and all being on the right side of 30 other than Jamie Lyon, who at 31 is still so good he would probably captian NSW if he wasn't retired from rep football. Matai in brilliant form, as is future NSW origin star Jorge Tafua, who as I predicted ran for another lazy 208 metres on the w/e. Snake starting to show glimpses of his best form, and there are no injuries to speak of. The Titans on the other hand have lost their most damaging back in giant Jamal Idris for the season, Zillman still out with a groin injury (although may return this round). Basically a no frills back line with the only really good thing going on being Kevin Gordon's form.

Halves - DCF returns from a triumphant 1st origin series to partner Kiwi international Foran in the halves, against young halves pairing Kelly and Sezer for the Titans. Sezer is a great young talent and a fabulous goal kicker however the reality of this match up is like a Ferrari racing a Commodore with many people rating DCF & Foran the games best halves combo (personally I prefer Reynolds/Sutton from Souths) and their is no denying their class and the way they bounce of each other in game.

Manly are hot, the Titans are not. Manly are healthy, the Titans are not. Manly are at home at "fortress" Brookvale. Titans are poor on the road. The massive loss of Myles and Bird cannot be overcome. Sea Eagles to kill 'em.

3* Manly -13.5 ($1.80 Sportsbet)
1* Manly -17.5 ($2.20 Sportsbet)

[OZnBa Fan]

North Melbourne vs Carlton

North Melbourne 1st half ML 5* $1.80 Bet 365

Well lets start off by saying bloody north melbourne!! They have probably been the big dissappointment of the season so far. I still rate north a lot higher then where they stand on the ladder right now.

North play there best football at ethihad and i believe that they play under the roof better then any club in the league and on there day they can take it up to anyone. North start games better then just about any other team. if you look at there first halves this is what you wll see

- Round 1 North trail collingwood by 2pts @ ETIHAD
- Round 2 North lead geelong by 35pts @ ETIHAD
- Round 3 North lead sydney by 14pts
- Round 4 North lead brisbane by 32pts @ ETIHAD
- Round 5 North trail hawks by 5pts
- Round 6 North lead port by 15pts
- Round 7 North lead bulldogs by 14pts @ ETIHAD
- Round 8 North lead west coast by 13pts
- Round 9 North lead Adelaide by 10pts @ ETIHAD
- Round 10 North lead St. Kilda by 61pts @ ETIHAD
- Round 11 North trail gold coast by 4pts
- Round 13 North trail freo by 27pts
- Round 14 North lead giants by 45pts @ ETIHAD
- Round 15 North lead tigers by 53pts @ ETIHAD
- Round 16 North lead Brisbane by 26pts

So as you can see North's biggest margin they have trailed at half time at Etihad is only 2 pts and that was way back in round 1 against Collingwood and there clearly has to be give and take in that. There avg lead at half time at Etihad is 28.2pts
You might argue the fact there not against strong teams but there next highest margin that they have trailed by at half time is only 5 pts, north clearly show that they match it with most teams for at least a half.

To the game itself...

I actually do believe that north will win this game but I just purely don't trust them to take them ATS. North have to much fwd stock that will trouble Carlton. The likes of drew petrie, Lindsay Thomas, aaron black and Robbie Tarrant will hold significant advantages over the opponents as carlton do not have great match ups for either fwds..

Its quiet evident that when north are up an about they can just about go with any team hence why I am taking them at half time ML

Carlton have really disappointed me since they put in respectable performances against Essendon, hawthorn and Sydney. They were shocking against Collingwood and I didn't think they were that impressive against st Kilda who have only got 3 wins for the year. Etihad is not a ground that carlton are to fond of as they have a pretty avg record there. North have been absolutely belted in the media this week down in Melbourne and im expecting a response in a big way

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Loving the Manly play Sando, i'm on it myself.

[Rugby21]

Just moved to -10 already!

Moved to -12 on bet365 now! Hope everyone got on early

[davopnz]

warriors tomorrow night anybody?

[sando]

Brilliant write-up Oz, no need for me to add anything. As I mentioned earlier in the week I am also very keen on the Roos's this week. The Roo-boys have tested the limits of my capacity to handicap their games without emotional involvement after being let down by them constantly this season and then having to front up and subjectively break down their game the following week whilst trying to keep my own history and feelings at bay. It's been a great lesson and a test of my own mental capacity. I'm taking the bait again this week and glad to see Benny and Oz are also seeing what I see on this play.

AFL

Carlton @ North Melbourne
2.5* Kangaroos 1st Half -1.5 ($1.90 Bet365)

*On a side note. From here on with AFL & NRL I will try to post my m/l and ATS plays as soon as I have settled on them (rarely before Thursdays), however I will not be posting any total's until a lot closer to game day's. Too many recent weather forecasts that have not been accurate on game day for my liking.

[sando]

warriors tomorrow night anybody?

I think so mate, yes. The Warriors have been our cash cow over the last month, however still trying to contemplate the potential negative (or positive) influence the "Benji factor" will have on the Tigers and in particular this game?

Also quite keen on Port, western Bulldogs, Richmond and Brisbane in AFL and Penrith and the Roosters in NRL. More than happy to hear others opinions if they wish to share

*Significant money is coming in on both Adelaide and West Coast at the m/l as big dog's this w/e. West Coast I can definitely understand, however if you take a look at Gellong's in's and Adelaide's out's then the Crows m/l bets are dumbfounding for mine?

[Swan4brownlow]

Can't comment on the NRL games as my knowledge is very limited but with the AFL:

- Port I love, already have 4 units on them -2.5. They get Westhoff back which is huge for them structurally. The Saints have won 3 games for the year and even against a side they've traditionally done well against they still lost by 6 goals last week. The Saints are very much looking to the future trying to get games into youngsters and experimenting with structure (Stanley down back for example) while Port are fighting for a top 8 spot. They need this win after dropping the last 2 and only standing 1 game in the 8. They've also played pretty well at the dome this year so the ground should hold no fears. Port just have too much riding on the game to let it slip IMO.

- Western Bulldogs I'm not so sure about, they put up a great fight vs the Bombers last week, but to me they're one of those sides who can be very brave and competitive one week yet hopeless the next. The Hawks smacked Port last week at AAMI and playing at their home away from home I can easily see this being a 10+ goal win so the line is pretty spot on IMO. Even bad weather in terms of wind and some rain may not save the Dogs, because their disposal can be woeful and the Hawks will make them pay for their turnovers. Remember this same Doggies side just lost to Melbourne and only scraped home against GWS. If anything I'm leaning Hawks.

- Richmond I have as slight favourites due to Ballantyne being out. He's arguably been their most important forward this year ( I know Mayne and Walters have also been exceptional, but his improved consistency is a big reason for Freo's impressive form). Tigers have the midfield to match it with Freo in terms of leg speed, although I'm not sure they have as many class hard ball winners (Foley Cotchin vs Mundy Fyfe Barlow). Despite Freo kicking a big score last week, they also leaked quite a lot of points for a Freo side and if the Tigers can move the ball quickly then Riewoldt, Vickery and Edwards could expose Freo's tall backs if they can get 1v1 contests or even numbered contests.

- Brisbane should be far too good for Melbourne class wise although being at TIO stadium humidity and dew will have a big bearing on the game and will impact the skills. The ball spending a lot of time on the ground will impact scoring and efficiency which might help Melbourne keep it closer (or they could be gassed after having to defend for the entirety of their match last week). From memory and without checking stats, games at TIO stadium are generally low scoring and there's more behinds than goals kicked.

- The other game I'm interested in is Essendon v GWS. The Swans absolutely annihilated the Giants last week whos younger players may be feeling the pinch. The Bombers have rested a few but the new guys will be desperate to come in and perform so they can potentially hold their spot for a finals assault. GWS making huge changes which i think supports the idea that their youngsters are getting tired.

[trigga50]

I think so mate, yes. The Warriors have been our cash cow over the last month, however still trying to contemplate the potential negative (or positive) influence the "Benji factor" will have on the Tigers and in particular this game?

Also quite keen on Port, western Bulldogs, Richmond and Brisbane in AFL and Penrith and the Roosters in NRL. More than happy to hear others opinions if they wish to share

*Significant money is coming in on both Adelaide and West Coast at the m/l as big dog's this w/e. West Coast I can definitely understand, however if you take a look at Gellong's in's and Adelaide's out's then the Crows m/l bets are dumbfounding for mine?

Sando which site do you use for public % for AFL?

[MrXYZ]

TAB generally sucks but the anonymity plus instant payouts is one advantage. I've seen punters at Star City Casino plonk down some huge cash bets without any problems.

[Rugby21]

Moved to -12 on bet365 now! Hope everyone got on early

Now at -14 and 16 with the odd book. Ridiculous movement from -8 only a few hours ago

[Lilfatbum]

Know nothing about NRL, but I do follow my AFL week by week. first actual writeup putting it on the line. lol. On Port that they almost have their aggets on the line for finals (Blues/Eagles a game away)whilst Saints have only win 3 games. Spread is minimal, Port haven't kicked 100 points all year, bar smashing he hapless Dees in rd 1. We all know that Saints cant kick big scores, cant see anything differnet this game, they only managed to 70ish against Blues which had their swingman Hendo play forward to kick 4. Total at 180.5 although seems about right. Port were smashed last game and Hinkley should put a rocket up their a$$. Westoff is a good in IMO, he does kick goals and can clunk the pill. Books more inclined to think this is closer, as Saints playing well at Etihad. Looking forward Port have Lions at home and then the showdown, which is always a cracker. They should capitalize now. If Port are half serious about finals they really should get it done.

[kts]

How about tonight match kangaroos-blues total at 195 it seem too high

[OZnBa Fan]

Drew Petrie over 2.5 goals 1.5* $2.00 luxbet

Get on lads

[benrama]

Great write ups everyone, sorry i don't have time to contribute at the moment. Sando and Oz - right with you tonight, I have money on North at the half time line, full time line, team total and North/North half time / full time at $2.40, for 4 units all up. Don't usually go this hard on one game but backing my read on this having watched these two teams play so much recently. Keep in mind this is a home game for North too despite being at ES and they are still a mathematical chance of making finals. As anyone who's played team sports knows while you are still a chance the motivation level still remains high, so not worried about mental drop off like some others are.

Strong lean to the over in the Tigers v Warriors, I think we see attacking flair from the Tigers tonight who have nothing to lose. I think we are getting a good number as recent Warrior games have stayed low against the best defenses in the comp - Souths, Roosters and Manly.

[benrama]

Drew Petrie over 2.5 goals 1.5* $2.00 luxbet

Get on lads

Mate pump that prop - over 3 goals is $1.38 at Sportsbet (!!)

[s2230011]

Player props, I was interested to see what Aaron Wood's Meters numbers were because he came back firing after his first origin game and I think he will be getting plenty of ball tonight. He is not offered on my bookie and I am not gonna stuff around with Supercoach markets.

The only play I like is big Manu O115.5, back from a short injury, he was heading towards a comfortable over before injuring himself against the broncos, he is also ) in 3 of the 4 games before that, with the Eagles being that team that kept him under, Tigers are not a great defensive side. He is up against a pretty inexperienced winger so the old fox may see plenty of ball.

[OZnBa Fan]

In the last 2 weeks I have been trying my luck with some alternative handicap parlay's and I have gone 3/3 so I thought I would share 1 have put on

north Melbourne +19.5 - $1.22
Geelong -11.5 - $1.41
West coast +32.5 - $1.30

= $2.24 @ centrebet

[minathomas88]

Have a feeling Carlton will win Carlton 1-24 @3.85

I think Roos have mentally lost this game before they've come on the field.
Roos deff have better side on paper but potential injuries to swallow zieball mullet- will hit them late in game.
Micks a better coach than Scott and that's where the difference will be. Carlton also have a lot to play for - probably more so than kangas
Will be good game but we will see what happens but I strongly feeling Carlton

[Lakey]

No bets on your Warriors lean Sando?

[OZnBa Fan]

North are OFFICAILLY scratched for me. Won't b betting on them again.. Apolgies for people that tailed

[minathomas88]

Best team to fade by far!

[Swan4brownlow]

15 scoring shots to 11 and 4 out on the fulls plus countless brain fades going forward. hopeless

[OZnBa Fan]

They will probably win now