[thelittlebirdy]

Any love for smith to win motm at $7?

[s2230011]

I hate MOM but if you want to bet on it ... dont think who you think will be MOM but who you think channel nine will pick as mom.

There are a few players that only need a decent game in a winning side to get the award.

[OZnBa Fan]

Luxbet have a special on tonights game for man of the match

[Dr.Gonzo]

Who trusts Farah?
He's prone to making a clanger at crucial times.
I can't believe he's the fav for MOTM.

I trust him.

He's favorite because if NSW win he's clearly the most likely player to get it given he's more dominant than his halves and captain.

[davopnz]

anyone betting on the residents game?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I just hope Fifita scores so he can do that lawnmower try celebration.... How good was that?

[benrama]

Your absolutely right mate, this is purely about supplementing my current income, I do have a job. Sounds like the biggest difference between you and me is that you have a really nice corporate job, where as I’m just a boring old security guard. I got lucky however and landed at a company that actually pays pretty well, and I also receive a fortnightly pension from the army, so money’s not really an issue. For me gambling is a way to make some extra cash. I have zero debt and don’t want any, so when I want something nice, like for example at the moment I’m saving up for a new sportsbike, it is a slow process, actually saving the money instead of just hitting the bank up for a loan. It has taken me a very very long time to get where I am today, i.e into that proverbial 5%

I’ve had years of losing, gambling the rent money, having people tell me I have a gambling problem, even hitting up pawn-brokers for cash – you name it, I did it.I have been doing this for 17 years and even that is a conservative estimate, as I’m 35 now and was playing 5 card draw for big money when I was 14 (I worked as a golf caddy in NY and used to win or lose $150+ sometimes in a day. Might not sound like much but this is $US and back in 1992). I have tried almost everything, pouring thousands into a single pokie machine, buying entire rolls of scratch lotto tickets, and for years betting big on the nag’s and dish lickers. I have bought many many systems for racing, the worst being a $9000 horse racing system called Technology 21. Nothing worked of course, however in the background I had always dabbled on sports betting and occasionally did pretty well, despite having zero knowledge of BR management, unit sizing, etc, etc. As I got older I started getting very interested in finance and the stock market and started off by buying another stupid system for $4.5K called Star Trader – another failure. It took me a long time and a lot of wasted money to learn that 99% of these systems are crap. However I continued studying finance and forcing myself to read the financial review everyday (painful) and building up my knowledge, whilst at the same time I discovered the poker craze. I used to travel around the country playing in Chess tournaments for absolute peanuts and then I heard a story about a guy who won $10K in a poker tournament… This was 8 years ago, well before NL ‘holdem and PLO became mainstream. Back then the games were weak and for 18 months I made a comfortable living travelling back and forth between Adelaide and Melbourne and beating up on guys at 2/3 and 3/5, just low limit stuff.

Like my good buddy and fellow Raiders man Rohan22no I discovered that gambling for a living is a soul depriving and truly degenerate business. I was making money no worries, I used to think I was the “king of the Adelaide Poker Zone”. My g/f worked at the cas, I was tight with all the security, I used to go to the dealers home games, one of my best mates was a boss in the poker zone, etc. I truly walked around like I owned the place. But I discovered that I don’t want to just gamble for a living. Unlike many poker players, money is not my god, I actually don’t even care about it that much, I’m a simple guy with simple tastes and in situations like when I would talk to my mum, I could tell she was embarrassed that her son played poker for a living. When people asked me what I did for work, I would make up some shit like “I trade on financial markets”, as I was also embarrassed to say yeah I’m a “professional” gambler.

Long story short I ended up losing hundreds of thousands of dollars on some very speculative decisions in the ASX. I was actually doing really well, making nearly $50K in my 1^st 6 months in the market but that turned out to be a disaster as I began thinking of myself as the next Warren Buffett and onceI started messing around with the penny stocks, especially in super speculative mining and defence markets it all went to shit. How did I have hundreds of thousands of $$ to lose in the 1^st place? I had a really bad accident in the army, it was the end of my career and I got a very large payout and a pension for life. After my stock market disaster and a long lay-off from all forms of gambling I started messing around on Betfair with trading (the object being to achieve a “green book” i.e no lose position) and eventually after months of hard work I developed my own trading system’s for NBA and tennis, and also a variation of the old classic “lay the draw” strategy for soccer. Again everything went really well and I was owning Betfair, despite being at a dis-advantage to the rest of the god damn world because of Australia’s horrible live betting laws. I seriuosly contemplated moving to NZ as I was convinced I could make $10K+ every week if only I could trade on a level playing field with the rest of the world. What happens next? Same story as my stock market trading - got too big for my boots and everything went to shit. Lost so much money so quickly I actually went on a long term tilt to the point where I would lose 2-4K on a single tennis match and the actual monetary impact of this would not even register on my psyche.

It has taken me very long hard painful road to get to where I am now. I have learnt many lessons. I have read probably 30-35 books on the combined subjects of finance, poker, sports-betting and gambling in general. Now after losing hundreds of thousands of dollars over a lifetime of gambling I do win. Finally. I am fanatical about sports. No doubt there are people at SBR just waiting for my collapse, because no-one can handicap multiple sports successfully, right? Well I just do my own thing. I don’t care what others pre-conceived notions are. I actually only bet on sports I know. Do I really follow 10+ sports that closely? Absolutely. When I say I am obsessed with sports I mean that literally. My idea of watching relaxing TV is fox sports news, ESPN sports center, AFL360, etc. When I am driving I listen to podcasts (AFL – mondayitis, NRL – nrl unleashed, etc). When I was 15 I could name the starting 5 of every NBA team and most of the benches too. I was playing blackjack with Shane Warne and Brett Lee once at the casino and was all ready to take Warnie on in a debate on the state of Australian Cricket - I actuall thought I knew more than he did haha. I think nothing of flying down to Sydney and then straight back to Adelaide to watch 1 game of league, a $600 trip. Enough examples, you get the point…

Wow - epic post! Thanks for taking the time to write that mate, you should write a book - seriously. Great story.

A lot of what you wrote sounds familiar, I've also bought into a few stupid systems and cappers, spent nearly $3K one capper called "Toutbuster" that hadn't lost in 3 yearsm was up $100K's etc, etc - sure enough from literally the day I joined the capper went on a $40K downswing (his "units" were $500-$1,500) over 12 months, with some hilarious excuses along the way for what was going wrong. He turned out to be a scammer and has fled the internet, not before I found out his name and threatened and go and throttle him mind you - but sober light of day prevailed.

I've seen that same thing play out a few times. It's why I'll never pay for a system or capper or anything again in my life - like you I had to learn the hard way that 99% are crap, and the 1% that aren't you probably are not going to hear much about them. It's an age old truism but if a system is that good then the person using it would be keeping it a secret and using it themself to make money.

The only tried and tested way to make money sports betting is to live and breath the sport, watch and read as much as you can, know the players, know the coaches, know the rivalries. The guy I mentioned previously Haralabos Voulgaris had 3-4 NBA teams that he had watched every minute of every game of, he almost knew the soul of the coaches of these teams and what they would do in certain circumstances, when they would take stars out, when they would play up or down tempo. He also happened to have mathematics geniuses working for him too, Billy Walters style, but this was not the "secret sauce."

So for someone who clearly lives and breathes this stuff like you, has the right bankroll management, the right attitude, I think you can be successful at it - and honestly I wish you all the best with it, because you are a class guy and give a lot back to SBR. I would just caution anyone thinking of taking sports investing seriously to realise how fkin hard it really is, and that unless you love sports - and I mean LOVE sports - you simply won't succeed. Same is true of all career choices, like the old saying, do what you love and you'll never work a day in your life.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Wow - epic post! Thanks for taking the time to write that mate, you should write a book - seriously. Great story.

A lot of what you wrote sounds familiar, I've also bought into a few stupid systems and cappers, spent nearly $3K one capper called "Toutbuster" that hadn't lost in 3 yearsm was up $100K's etc, etc - sure enough from literally the day I joined the capper went on a $40K downswing (his "units" were $500-$1,500) over 12 months, with some hilarious excuses along the way for what was going wrong. He turned out to be a scammer and has fled the internet, not before I found out his name and threatened and go and throttle him mind you - but sober light of day prevailed.

I've seen that same thing play out a few times. It's why I'll never pay for a system or capper or anything again in my life - like you I had to learn the hard way that 99% are crap, and the 1% that aren't you probably are not going to hear much about them. It's an age old truism but if a system is that good then the person using it would be keeping it a secret and using it themself to make money.

The only tried and tested way to make money sports betting is to live and breath the sport, watch and read as much as you can, know the players, know the coaches, know the rivalries. The guy I mentioned previously Haralabos Voulgaris had 3-4 NBA teams that he had watched every minute of every game of, he almost knew the soul of the coaches of these teams and what they would do in certain circumstances, when they would take stars out, when they would play up or down tempo. He also happened to have mathematics geniuses working for him too, Billy Walters style, but this was not the "secret sauce."

So for someone who clearly lives and breathes this stuff like you, has the right bankroll management, the right attitude, I think you can be successful at it - and honestly I wish you all the best with it, because you are a class guy and give a lot back to SBR. I would just caution anyone thinking of taking sports investing seriously to realise how fkin hard it really is, and that unless you love sports - and I mean LOVE sports - you simply won't succeed. Same is true of all career choices, like the old saying, do what you love and you'll never work a day in your life.

If you've got the bank balance to justify it don't rule out paying for statistical/form analysis. I use Vince Accardi's sectional work for horse racing. Other than RightAngleSports most tipping services are garbage, I've never heard of one based in Australia that was legit.

[davopnz]

Yeah btw thanks sando and rohan, epic stories/advice.

There are two sports that I live and breath, Rugby and NFL. Particularly Rugby.

I know both games inside out, I follow rugby in New Zealand from a school boy level(went to one of the best rugby schools in the country) I honestly feel like my knowledge in these two sports are the only skills I have but I haven't been able to put it into serious money.

I mean I have the basic school qualifications, nothing great(finished last year) I'm currently on a small wage and I don't know what to do with myself, I really want to pursue betting, I don't want to work a 9-5.(I'd rather be broke) but I need to start getting serious about it.

[benrama]

If you've got the bank balance to justify it don't rule out paying for statistical/form analysis. I use Vince Accardi's sectional work for horse racing. Other than RightAngleSports most tipping services are garbage, I've never heard of one based in Australia that was legit.

Stats services are different, that's just a way of saving yourself time with data. I've had RAS before and they are OK but unless you place your bets within seconds - literally - most of their lines are unattainable. They still are a bit scummy with how they act behind the scenes, I wouldn't be surprised if the books also subscribed to them or they had their own thing going on the side.

But I'll grant they are - borderline - one of the 1%.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Yeah btw thanks sando and rohan, epic stories/advice.

There are two sports that I live and breath, Rugby and NFL. Particularly Rugby.

I know both games inside out, I follow rugby in New Zealand from a school boy level(went to one of the best rugby schools in the country) I honestly feel like my knowledge in these two sports are the only skills I have but I haven't been able to put it into serious money.

I mean I have the basic school qualifications, nothing great(finished last year) I'm currently on a small wage and I don't know what to do with myself, I really want to pursue betting, I don't want to work a 9-5.(I'd rather be broke) but I need to start getting serious about it.

Either get a job or go to TAFE and get on benefits, you need to turnover a lot of capital to make a small profit, being broke isn't going to cut it. If you can do something in statistic or computer programming you'll be doing yourself a favor and will have a better chance at landing a job with a sportsbook, that might be a job you could suffer through.

[gohabsgo]

So what's the play here NSW +4.5? ML? or Queensland?
Based on what i've been reading Queensland is a lock for many.
4.5 seems low considering the injuries.
Just because the line seems not to make any sense, my lean is NSW +4.5

[Dr.Gonzo]

I like NSW +4.5

NSW have a strong record on this ground and the officials are usually biased towards the home side. I think the QLD forward pack is too small around the center of the park, it worked out to their advantage in game 2 because they had all the ball, but I suspect NSW will get the rub of the green so I see them winning the go forward battle. NSW have 4 props, and no wasted man(utility) on the bench. I'd expect Maloney to get a little bit more help from his forwards in defense, they left him stranded in game 2.

[benrama]

Duplicate post

[OZnBa Fan]

So sportsbet now will only let me bet $5 on a single bet.. What a joke

[aussieH]

That is a disgrace. How much have you been winning.

[Dr.Gonzo]

So sportsbet now will only let me bet $5 on a single bet.. What a joke

Sportsbet are the softest of all aus books. IAS have the same lines, same company (Paddy Power) as far as I'm aware, yet you can last a little longer there.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Sportsbet

2* Matt Scott Over 125.5 Metres ($1.75) - 94m at HT
1* Corey Parker Over Metres 135.5 ($1.88) - 67m at HT
1* Chris McQueen Under 70.5 Metres ($1.88) - 40m at HT
0.5* Johnathon Thurston Over 12.5 Tackles ($1.88) - 11 at HT

Luxbet

1.5* Tamou (v Woods) Most Supercoach points ($1.87)
1.5* Farrah (v Smith) Most Supercoach points ($1.73)
1.5* Bird (v Thaiday) - most run metres ($1.87) - 60m v 30m
1.5* Pearce (v Cronk) - most tackles ($1.87) - 11 v 8
1* Tamou (v Myles) - most run metres ($1.87) - 31 v 39
1* Aaron Woods Under 110.5 metres ($1.87) - 18m at HT
1* James McManus Over 4.5 tackles ($1.87) - 0 at HT
1* Michael Jennings Under 19.5 tackles ($1.80) - 12 at HT
0.5* Chris McQueen Over 20.5 tackles ($1.87) - 11 at HT
0.5* Greg Bird Over 1 Offloads ($2.00) - 0 at HT
0.5* Corey Parker Over 2.5 Offloads ($1.87) - 0 at HT
0.5* Brett Morris Over 5.5 Tackles ($1.87) - 2 at HT
0.5* Greg Bird Over 90.5 Metres ($1.87) - 60m at HT
0.5* Greg Inglis Over 53.5 Supercoach points ($1.87)

Looking good so far Sando

[MrXYZ]

Sportsbet are a joke, they deserve to get hammered for their soft lines. How much did you win to set them off?

[OZnBa Fan]

In all honesty guys I didn't win much, this has just come out of no where. I went to put a 1* bet on and they said the max was $5 so I ring the pricks up and they the "traders" have put a restriction on my account due to risk management so I then ask them why and they tell me that they don't have to give reasons... My sportsbet days are over.

Ias bet is run by sportsbet it's exactly the same I have an account with them to but same situation

[OZnBa Fan]

If any1 knows why this might happen I'd love to know??

[Dr.Gonzo]

If any1 knows why this might happen I'd love to know??

Either hire competent linesman or just ban winning players. They hate people picking off their off lines and small winners.

[Rabbitbrew]

If any1 knows why this might happen I'd love to know??

Same thing happened to me. Had a great run on tennis and I didn't lose a netball bet all year with them.

Risk management was the same reason they gave me.

They want mug punters only at Sportsbet.

A disgrace.

[Lilfatbum]

Sportsbet also pay out slower than others... I had Manly 13+ margin and it took them almost 2 hours after to pay out... Disgrace indeed

[davopnz]

Ahhh of course I got silly and took NSW ML, frustrating.

[davopnz]

also i made a withdrawal from iasbet last week and still havent got the money, yet i withdrew there awhile ago no hassles. been in contact with my bank, they haven't received the payment yet iasbet is claiming they sent it last wednesday...

[RedDevil89]

A very good night for me! Had a unit on QLD ML with sportsbet ($1.60) which I knew I would atleast get my money back! And had 2units on the under 34.5 with TAB ($1.88)! Queenslander!!!

Give Mitchell Pierce the man of the match and make him and immortal haha! Biggest origin dud! They cant win while he's there unless they wait a few years until the QLD veterans retire! Sack Pierce and sack the selectors!

[shevabets]

Washington -6.5 @$1.91 X2.7 UNITS to win 2.5 UNITS

Ive got on board this one early while the line has dipped to 6.5, Im praying that there will be no outs tomorrow like there was yesterday.

Good stuff. I heard of a syndicate betting on Under 1H (and possibly full game) in this one. But totals were razor sharp in this game; unlike the spread. You clearly picked the best way to bet this one. Thibault magic, baby!

[trigga50]

So sportsbet now will only let me bet $5 on a single bet.. What a joke

Hey Oz, thought Id chip in on this one. Sportsbet did something similar to me going back 2 years ago, I was having a crazy run in the NBA, I spoke to their customer service team and the answer they game me was "your account is being evaluated" so I basically withdrew my entire bankroll (which took 4 weeks) and been using Centrebet as my main book. Recently Ive also been using bet365 which gives heaps of markets for WNBA. Funny part is sportsbet rang me earlier this year and asked why I was no longer using my account, and what they could do in order for me to come back to sportsbet. I was given a $200 free bet, which Ive used to build a small bankroll. I find sportsbet average for US sports but god for some of the AFL markets, especialy 1-39 markets. I haven't had any other problems with any other books since. One of my theories in bankroll management is you want to look like an eager / novice gambler. When I build my bank roll up I withdraw the whole lot, and a week later make a couple of deposits back into the account as a sufficient starting point to go again.

[davopnz]

also i made a withdrawal from iasbet last week and still havent got the money, yet i withdrew there awhile ago no hassles. been in contact with my bank, they haven't received the payment yet iasbet is claiming they sent it last wednesday...

anyone know what i should do about this? after hearing these stories i'm thinking they've done this on purpose...

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Sportsbet

2* Matt Scott Over 125.5 Metres ($1.75) - CASH
1* Corey Parker Over Metres 135.5 ($1.88) - CASH
1* Chris McQueen Under 70.5 Metres ($1.88) - LOSS
0.5* Johnathon Thurston Over 12.5 Tackles ($1.88) - CASH

Luxbet

1.5* Tamou (v Woods) Most Supercoach points ($1.87) - Should Cash
1.5* Farrah (v Smith) Most Supercoach points ($1.73) - Too close to call
1.5* Bird (v Thaiday) - most run metres ($1.87) - CASH
1.5* Pearce (v Cronk) - most tackles ($1.87) - CASH
1* Tamou (v Myles) - most run metres ($1.87) - LOSS
1* Aaron Woods Under 110.5 metres ($1.87) - CASH
1* James McManus Over 4.5 tackles ($1.87) - LOSS
1* Michael Jennings Under 19.5 tackles ($1.80) - LOSS
0.5* Chris McQueen Over 20.5 tackles ($1.87) - CASH
0.5* Greg Bird Over 1 Offloads ($2.00) - LOSS
0.5* Corey Parker Over 2.5 Offloads ($1.87) - LOSS
0.5* Brett Morris Over 5.5 Tackles ($1.87) - LOSS
0.5* Greg Bird Over 90.5 Metres ($1.87) - CASH
0.5* Greg Inglis Over 53.5 Supercoach points ($1.87) - probably LOSS

[hawley]

also i made a withdrawal from iasbet last week and still havent got the money, yet i withdrew there awhile ago no hassles. been in contact with my bank, they haven't received the payment yet iasbet is claiming they sent it last wednesday...

Interesting. Same thing happening to me at hte moment.

[Cobra Kai]

Farrah (v Smith) looks like a loss from what I can gather. Unfortunate as that was my biggest play tonight. Any chance he'll get up? Doesn't look like he's won any stat apart from meters gained.

[Coopertrooper]

Sportsbet/IAS definitely slower over the past few weeks than what I remember (although they're at least paying after 3 working days for me, they used to be super quick though). I haven't had any trouble with either, and they are my main book, which I have won a bit off this year, especially with my AFL plays. I think if you put in the occasional degen play or put in quite a few multiples they overlook the straight up winners a bit more. They usually seem to hate the smaller winners, because from their view they aren't going to change lines (so they aren't really 'buying' information of their smaller clients) yet are still eating into their profits. Very frustrating for the average punter who is trying to make a little bit here and there when they do that, they're basically saying they won't let you win with them, only lose. The more books that do it, the harder it becomes to ever having a fair chance (and exchanges like Betfair must love that, they are happy to have winners with them when they aren't winning off them).
　
Only other thing I would suggest with Sportsbet/IAS is to change who you bet with the most from time to time. I tend to spend 2-3 months betting on one a lot more than the other, then switching back. Unless they are super effective at cross-matching, they may let you slip through the gaps, although I have no doubt that they are mostly on to people trying that. But if some people are having some big problems with IAS not paying at the moment that is certainly a concern.

[trigga50]

Whilst we wait for Sandos Origin play, Ive got a strong lean for WNBA tomorrow. Could be a good chance to get a couple of units up before tomorrow nights origin match.

WNBA +13.7

San Antonio VS Washington
As i mentioned earlier San Antonio have now lost their second leading scorer on top of their number 1 scorer earlier this year. The game total of this game has had a lot of early movement, Ill be leaving it alone due to the fact San Antonio are still in an adjustment phase after loosing Becky Hammon. Washington have been on a pretty good run lately, one of the keys to their success has been coach Mike Thibault. He is the best coach going around this year and has an impressive record. He has shown in several games this year that he can make the correct adjustments during games to give his team the best chance of winning. Its no secret that Washington play better at home, shooting at 42%. Washington also has one of the best benches in the WNBA, with 31 points being scored from their bench players in their last game at San Antonio on Friday. When Washington visited San Antonio last friday the end score line was 83-73 with washington coming away with a 10 point win. During that game Washington smashed San Antonio is 1st, 2nd and 4th quarters, but allowed San Antonio to get off to a fast start in the 3rd quarter outscoring Washington 23-12. Im not expecting any lapses tomorrow at home, and they should have a big advantage at home.

Washington -6.5 @$1.91 X2.7 UNITS to win 2.5 UNITS

Ive got on board this one early while the line has dipped to 6.5, Im praying that there will be no outs tomorrow like there was yesterday.

WNBA +16.16

Great day with Washington cashing big, I was almost going to play half a unit at 13+ points but talked myself out of it before the game. Washington blew SA out of the water after half time and pulled out a large win.

I dont really like the games tomorrow, lines are very sharp and totals seem unpredictable. I wouldn't be surprised if LA come away 20 point winners over an undermanned Atlanta team, but Atlanta may make the necessary adjustments to keep it closish. Tulsa vs Seattle is intriguing me but Tulsa has screwed me over so many times on either side of the bet. Tulsa will have 2 key players out this game, have lost by an Average of 14.4 points over their last 5 games and shoot a woefull 38%. Seattle tend to win at home, but only by small margins as they lack offence. If anyone is interested taking a couple of teasers in a parlay tomorrow. These alternate spreads are available at Bet365.

PARLAY
Seattle -2.5
(Tulsa V Seattle) Game total UNDER 152.5
LA -5.5
@$2.79 X 0.6 UNITS to Win 1.07 UNITS