[RedDevil89]

i like GC points as well they are playing some really good football and they can now contest with just about with any 1 in the middle.. personnally i like the under the bombers have only conceeded 81 points per game this season and they are ranked the 6th best in the competition

What total are they giving for the bombers game? They haven't released it yet on sportsbet

[Coopertrooper]

Since there is plenty of discussion about this game, I thought I would post it here too. Some food for thought for the Richmond/Adelaide match:

Adelaide have defeated 5 sides this year - and they currently sit in the bottom 6 sides (they haven’t played the 6^th side Melbourne yet), with 6 losses. They sit 10^th, with 1 loss to a side below them (Port). Their form looked promising after they came close to 5^th placed Fremantle, but were put back into place with a thrashing from the Swans last year.

Richmond have defeated 6 sides this year - 1 in the top 8 (Carlton), the other 5 below them (but evenly spread in the bottom 8). Their 4 losses came against good sides.

However, both sides have had some close matches. The tigers best win, against Carlton, was by less than a goal. By the same token, they fell 1 point (and only about 5 meters) short of Fremantle, and did it away from home. Adelaide meanwhile had an extremely lucky come from behind win by 1 point against North Melbourne, but lost to Fremantle and Hawthorn by less than 2 goals (but with both games at home).

I feel that since these sides are 9^th and 10^th, this raw form probably leans just slightly in the tigers favour. However, the fact that the crows are putting their best performances in at home suggests that they are not travelling well. In my mind it means Richmond should be about a 3 goal better side at the MCG, so I think the line has been very sharp. 1-39 is the play

[Rugby21]

Hi guys,

I've been reading this forum for a while now and have followed a lot of selections with good success. I am from England and follow the super league rugby very closely and go to every hull fc game home and away and will start posting my selections. I obviously don't back any games involving my team due to bias. I also follow the English league football closely and will be posting my selections when the season starts in August. Hopefully the tigers (hull city) can go well next year!

[trigga50]

i have a complete diffrent look to the richmond adelaide game mate, the crows come to the mcg after playing possibly the worst game under sanderson the tigers did play there best game of the year against the eagles but something you have to take into consideration here with the tigers, they have played there best footy when they have come up against sides where the pressure on them to perform hasnt been intense eg : frematle, they go over to subi to play the hot dockers at subi were no1 would have picked the tigers to keep it within a goal, port adelaide, at the time the power were up n about, the west coast game they were in the same predicament were there would have been 1 put of 20 people that would have picked the tigers to win, the tigers agaisnt freo and west coast would have been game that most people that would have had them down for a loss which plays into the tigers hands because they dont like the pressure of them winning being on them and im gonna back that up with 2 games from last year where they were in exactly in the same position and that was against the hawks and the swans who they beat both teams by 40+. So you then look at the tigers when the heat has really been on them to perfrom this year being 3-0 and coming up agianst the pies at the g, cats at the g then the bombers at the g, these were games were the "public" thought it was richmonds time and they didnt didnt come to the party, have the tigers turned the corner to become that side that every1 expects? Not yet. this is a big danger game for the tigers the crows are gonna come out fireing no doubt, they wont have an answer for dangerfield who wont play off the half back line, tahlia IMO is a gun and is a great match up for roo, personally i would tag deliedo instead of cotchin and the danger for the crows is like of martin and big ivan in the ruck. Im taking the crows at +20.5 for 2 units best of luck and sorry for my rant haha

Completely respect you opinion and I see your points. I just can't see the crows getting it done, Richmond is equally under pressure to perform and Hardwick has them more than aware of the dangers against the Crows this week. I think that 3 and a bit goals isn't much to ask for from Richmond at home against a short and almost experimental Crows side. Im a big Adelaide fan and hope that I'm wrong in a way... Best of luck anyway mate.

Also was gona add, looking forward to more AFL insights from you as you seem to have good knowledge and previous match info.

[Mase of Base]

Sri Lanka cruise it in!

[gimps_77]

Surely a play on patty mills basket and spurs win is good value.
If Parker is sore/out surely mills gets a few more minutes and I think spurs are good enough to win without him paying $9.5

[RedDevil89]

No picks on the NBA sando?

[Grunch]

Surely a play on patty mills basket and spurs win is good value.
If Parker is sore/out surely mills gets a few more minutes and I think spurs are good enough to win without him paying $9.5

Patty Mills has only gotten minutes in garbage time in the entire playoffs. The only way that bet hits is if the spurs win in a blowout like last game. And he still needs to score in the few minutes he gets at the end. Parker has already guaranteed he will play and even if he didn't I doubt very much Mills would play.

[RedDevil89]

Im going to take Spurs -1.5/Under 187.5 double at sportsbet ($3.50).

[ExodusNZ]

im going to take spurs -1.5/under 187.5 double at sportsbet ($3.50).

....foster.................

[sando]

NBA

No play for me today boys, with doubt over Spurs MVP Parker, this line has moved from Spurs -2 into a pk em and now into Heat -1.5 and in my humble opinion is pretty accurate, that's how important Parker is to the Spurs, he keeps Lebron so busy and of course Chalmers and at times Wade, and although he will play I am sure he can't be at 100% Anyway it seems that the public and the "experts" (touts) are all over Miami's dick tonight, however I must say that will a healthy Parker I would not only have been playing the Spurs I was planning on playing them fairly big (2-3 units), as great as Lebron is he cannot do it without help that he is getting sporadically and when the most consistent contributions are coming from Birdman and Miller, you are probably in trouble, although it should be mentioned that Lebrons effort in this corresponding "must win" game against the C's last year was downright scary.

Anyway I still think the Spurs win today to be honest and I also have a pretty good feeling about the under 187 as well. Good luck with your plays. Might have a H/T play?

[OZnBa Fan]

NBA

No play for me today boys, with doubt over Spurs MVP Parker, this line has moved from Spurs -2 into a pk em and now into Heat -1.5 and in my humble opinion is pretty accurate, that's how important Parker is to the Spurs, he keeps Lebron so busy and of course Chalmers and at times Wade, and although he will play I am sure he can't be at 100% Anyway it seems that the public and the "experts" (touts) are all over Miami's dick tonight, however I must say that will a healthy Parker I would not only have been playing the Spurs I was planning on playing them fairly big (2-3 units), as great as Lebron is he cannot do it without help that he is getting sporadically and when the most consistent contributions are coming from Birdman and Miller, you are probably in trouble, although it should be mentioned that Lebrons effort in this corresponding "must win" game against the C's last year was downright scary.

Anyway I still think the Spurs win today to be honest and I also have a pretty good feeling about the under 187 as well. Good luck with your plays. Might have a H/T play?

Yer I took you advice in the half time play and also took a unit on the under, every game has gone under so far except for game 3 which had no reason to over with all those 3's been nailed by the spurs and the game only went over by 3 GL all

[sando]

Absolutely loving the direction this thread is heading in as far as Aus sports. Some fantastic analysis on this w/e's AFL and NRL games, I'd say the crew we've got in here at the moment is as sharp as any going around. Cooper thanks for dropping in mate (plenty of solid AFL analysis in his thread as well).

Hi guys,

I've been reading this forum for a while now and have followed a lot of selections with good success. I am from England and follow the super league rugby very closely and go to every hull fc game home and away and will start posting my selections. I obviously don't back any games involving my team due to bias. I also follow the English league football closely and will be posting my selections when the season starts in August. Hopefully the tigers (hull city) can go well next year!

Please do, I look forward to them, love Super league.

[ExodusNZ]

Haha. Hate you guys..taking the under now

[Bdolan33]

Parker has been confirmed as healthy and playing since this afternoon

[sando]

Parker has been confirmed as healthy and playing since this afternoon

Yeah I know but...

Grade 1 Hamstring strain

With a grade 1 hamstring strain the athlete may have tightness in back of the thigh but will be able to walk normally. They will be aware of some discomfort and unable to operate at full speed. There will be little swelling and trying to bend the knee against resistance is unlikely to reproduce much pain.

[JM92]

I got Lebron over 27 @ +100 which was great value in my mind. He just needs to come with a different mindset just like game 6 against Boston last year. Also took the under and no, I'm not scared of the Heat's small lineup they've used million times, just with Battier instead of Miller and they have still been a slow paced team all year long.

I don't see how the Heat lose this one, but since I have 3 units already tied up on Heat futures bets, I'll let this one pass.

[trigga50]

Im on Heat today, and also Lebron 27pts + . Heats back to back record is just too strong coming off a big loss, and Lebron held himself personally responsible after game 3, so his effort levels should be high tonight.

Also small play on Miller +9 points (caught the whisper of him starting in place of Haslem)

[sando]

NBA 2nd Half Play

1* Spurs 2nd half m/l (+112 Pinnacle)

(This is basically a full game m/l play seeing as the scores are tied)

Miami playing great basketball, full of intensity and yet the scores are tied at H/T, when other than Parker the Spurs have not been at their best.

[Speedy88]

NBA 2nd Half Play

1* Spurs 2nd half m/l (+112 Pinnacle)

(This is basically a full game m/l play seeing as the scores are tied)

Miami playing great basketball, full of intensity and yet the scores are tied at H/T, when other than Parker the Spurs have not been at their best.

I'm on Spurs +1 and I'm thinking the exact same thing. Miami played great ball for the 1H and the game is tied. Something in the back of my head still thinks the Heat will win, but definitely a great sign for the Spurs that they played pretty awful and are tied at halftime.

[RedDevil89]

When are you going to post your write up for this weekends games Sando?

[rohan22no]

When are you going to post your write up for this weekends games Sando?

this. No Sando write ups for about 48 hours...suffering withdrawals...

P.S - nice hit for the people that backed SL v ENG last night..

[Gee]

Crows +20.5 and GC +34.5 for me this weekend.

I love the value on the Crows. Horribly undervalued here. Yes, they were embarrassed last week, but the Swans were playing some amazing footy. They would have done the same to the Tigers. Other than that, I've been impressed with where the Crows are at without Tippett and Walker. Apart from that anomaly last weekend, they have been decent all season.

Tigers are overvalued IMO - decent side, but has struggled when under pressure and hasn't beaten a good side this season (I don't rate Carlton and it was r1 anyway...). Everyone is on them after last week, but they were flattered by the score line in the end. Eagles had 22 scoring shots to Richmond's 23. Eagles had plenty of chances (more inside 50s than the Tigers) to at least keep it close and hit the post 5 times.

As for Suns/Bombers - write up is simple - Suns been great recently and I think the ASADA issues are starting to weigh the Bombers down... there are a plethora of examples of them playing flat footy over the last month. If they switch off for a quarter, Suns will cover. Since the Freo game, they've played fantastic footy.

[trigga50]

Cashed on Miami and Lebron. Lebron made me sweat when he was benched with 9mins left to go on 24 points with heat up by 7. Tony Parker ran out of legs in the last half and the 3 pointers dried up. Im liking Spurs for game 5 if line will be similar. Zig Zag effect is in motion still.

[trigga50]

Just an FYI for the aussie guys, Centrebet are paying $8 for Buddy and Waite to kick 8 goals combined tonight as one of their weekend specials.

[gimps_77]

I'm thinking of playing that $8 special, should rain goals tonight I fancy
Is anyone else on it? What about weather?

[Cobra Kai]

Nice hit on the Sri Lankans yesterday, finally got their batting in order albeit on a track that gave them no excuses.

Tonight I'm very keen on the south Africans with Steyn looking like he'll be in the lineup. In a must win game for both teams I'm expecting the dangerous south African attack to pose more problems for the Windies batsmen than vice versa.

Gayle is due a big score though and look for him to take responsibility.

I'll most likely wait for the game to start before betting especially if West indies go in to bat first, hopefully they can get a decent start and some what even up the odds.

Thoughts and opinions appreciated as always.

Good luck to all over the weekend.

[trigga50]

I'm thinking of playing that $8 special, should rain goals tonight I fancy
Is anyone else on it? What about weather?

Weather is a possible shower, but it wont turn into a pond or anything. This bet really relies on Buddy not getting doubled, and Carlton getting enough inside 50's. Waite had a great game last week had a lot of solid leads and marks keeping Carlton in the game against Essendon.

[Gee]

You could say that Gayle has been due for a big score almost every time he's gone out to bat for the last 12 months. Sure, he's still a threat, but so what. Why do you think he "takes responsibility" today of all times given his form? Had a few good IPL games, but they aren't internationals...

You probably don't want to be betting on a ODI where it is basically guaranteed to be interrupted by rain.

West Indies have been crunched in from $2.52 to $2.25. I think that is because it will be a shortened match. Forecast is for clear weather for only 3 hours... so you might get 20-23 overs each if that is right.

Stay away I reckon.

[Cobra Kai]

Ok thanks for the weather info, hadn't looked into that yet.

Gayle had a great ipl I don't think the standard of a typical ipl game is much below a lot of internationals, the top ipl teams are far better than the national west indies team for example. I don't think Gayle feels the need to perform tonight given the strength of the south African bowlers, I think he'll for sure take it on his shoulders to try and carry the innings weather he actually does though who knows, but he won't be lacking in motivation and he is due

[MatI]

Weather is a possible shower, but it wont turn into a pond or anything. This bet really relies on Buddy not getting doubled, and Carlton getting enough inside 50's. Waite had a great game last week had a lot of solid leads and marks keeping Carlton in the game against Essendon.

I'm pretty sure the roof will be closed at Etihad tonight for Carlton vs Hawthorn.

[KierenRaj]

No need to worry about weather for the Hawks vs Carlton game. Its at etihad so the roof should be closed

[sando]

Won't be playing many games this w/e in AFL & NRL, most of the games I like are actually tonight and with a BIG Monday night football play to come...

AFL

Hawks @ Blues

2* Hawks HT/FT ($1.54 Sportingbet)


NRL - dog day

Cowboys @ Dragons
1.5* Cowboys +6 ($1.94 Luxbet)
0.5* Cowboys m/l ($2.93 Pinnacle)
0.25* Cowboys 1-12 ($4.00 Luxbet)
Should be a low scoring game. Was contemplating playing the under as well. Most signs point to a Dragons win... but not tonight.

Bulldogs @ Sea Eagles
2* Under 34 ($1.90 Sportingbet)
1* Bulldogs m/l ($2.34 Pinnacle)

Manly has played an amazing 10 (of 12) games under this season. Battle of two big hard arse forward packs. Inu back from suspension reignites the best centre pairing in the NRL (Inu/J-moz) and the doggies are fielding a very strong team tonight. Manly rarely lose at Brookvale & rarely lose 2 in a row, however the 'doggies will still get up.

Rugby Union - Internationals

Wales @ Japan

4* Wales -9.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet)

Wales without the majority of their 1st 15, who are off on Lions duty are effectively fielding their 2nd 15 in this match in Japan and yet the depth of Wales rugby is such that they should still crush the "brave blossoms" who recenty lost to @ home to Tonga by 10 and backed that up with a touch up from Fiji 2 weeks ago .

Tonga @ USA (PNC)

1* USA m/l ($2.20 Sportingbet)

The Eagles and US rugby are on the rise as evidenced by a recent 3 point loss against Ireland in what was the biggest crowd ever to attend a Rugby match in the US (20,000) and they managed to keep the tier 1 Irish side try less for the full 80 minutes (albeit an Irish side missing their Lions players). The US backed this up with a solid 9-16 defeat in Canada against the in-form Canucks. The Tongans also recently lossed to Canada and now pay the price for their ill disciplined performance with 3 key players un-available for this match.

[davopnz]

just wondering if you saw the game last week where wales beat japan by 4 points(outscored 2 tries to 1)

[gimps_77]

yeah sando be aware
I bet on the wales - in my threat last week and got burnt