[sando]

LOL - Did you sign up to him ?

Nah of course not, no interest in paying $$ for plays, I can generate plenty of my own. Saw what he is playing today "across the street".

No chance that WNBA game is going over so there go my precious betpoints hahahah

[Vinnie Paz]

Cmon man even if you hate roxxy you gotta know better than to fade his womens ball

[OZnBa Fan]

Yeah was just going to play the Under originally. Silly me. He's done now mentally. After the loss to Ward and now this = mental midget.

i just missed the fight and caught the post match commentry and they said dawson went in to cocky and didnt pay enough respect to the big hitter in stevenson..

On your west coast bet i think this is a dangerous game for the eagles but surely with sam fisher, lenny hayes and hopefully the eagles can lock down riewoldt they should win easy, im expecting a big game from nic nat today and dean cox if thats the case they should cover.

[sando]

Cmon man even if you hate roxxy you gotta know better than to fade his womens ball

Yeah your right, I don't know what I was thinking? He's just been on a bit of a losing streak lately. Don't hate Roxxy at all, used to post a lot in his threads, I guess I'm just jealous cos he's mr "big time" now.

[Rabbitbrew]

Also contemplating Fever +5.5 @ home against the Firebirds? The Fever have been really good to me @ home this season. (Game starts in 2 hours).

Rabittbrew - check in buddy??

Sorry, night shift has meant that I've only been able to read this now. I had Firebirds winning by 6 so after some research it was a no play for me. Hope you kept your dollars in your pocket.

Two sports betting books that are worthwhile reading:
Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong.
Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao.

They are older books but much of the content is relevant.

One for the statistically minded:
Mathletics: How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and Football by Wayne Winston.

I've applied a lot of the content in this book into my Netball models.

[Crowing Capers]

Geez some great stuff going on in this thread at moment
Sando , Mr.XYZ and Rabbitbrew cheers for your insights
Plenty learnt from this thread
Lets cash the Eagles boys

[OZnBa Fan]

josh kennedy late with drawel with no glass and lecras, im worried about this

[onthefence]

As an eagles fan I'm doubtful about us winning, let alone covering the line.

[ExodusNZ]

And the warriors do it! Helped a bit by the refs but well done!

One of the happiest parts of the game - Commentator - "Friend doesn't have a contract next year" !!!!!!!!! Now just need to get rid of Mannering

[sando]

Play added.

The "Miami Cavaliers" cannot win the title. Heat wins and D Wade steps up today.

[ExodusNZ]

You like the Broncos ?

Dont have the full stats but teams coming off a huge humiliating win always seem to bounce back the next week.

[sando]

You like the Broncos ?

Dont have the full stats but teams coming off a huge humiliating win always seem to bounce back the next week.

Yes there is a strong trend for that.

Teams giving up more than 40 points last start are 23-36 outright and 32-27 ATS.

The Broncos have won & covered ATS both games when coming off beat downs (24+ points) last start, however incongruously they are also only 4-5 ATS when coming off a loss of 13+ last start.

Having said all that, I will be playing the Raiders tonight. I am just finalising my play/s right now and will have a write up and a ton of stats to back it up.

[nicholaswdy]

Nice pick NBA tonight! Many thanks!!!!!!

[ExodusNZ]

Wade on the bench the whole second ??

[sando]

Monday Night Football (NRL)

After hitting 12 of my last 13 NRL plays, had a very poor end to the round losing all 4 plays on the Panthers and Sharks.

Monday Night Football is traditionally the bogey game of every round. Being in the spotlight of MNF can do strange things to NRL teams however I've been hot in MNF over the last month and I remain full of confidence heading into tonight's game.

Raiders have been untouchable at home this year and at this time of the year playing at night time in Canberra is a very unique experience to most teams as the weather can get down to 0 degrees, and is easily the coldest place to play in the comp. Not good news for a warm weather team like Brisbane.

Broncos in poor form, (as we saw last week when we were on the Warriors). Last round the "baby Broncos" were completely annihilated by the bad arse Warriors, although they were missing a bunch of origin stars, and while they regain 3 of their key forwards, their most important player and genuine game breaker Justin Hodges is in doubt, with some reports he will play and some reports he won't (he is traditionally injury prone and the Broncos tread carefully with him as he's so precious) which otherwise leaves FB Corey Norman as the only real game breaker for the Broncos.

The Raiders however are fielding one of their strongest teams of the season, with all the key players (other than Leahroy-Lars) available, and more importantly the Raiders possess 4 genuine game breakers in Robinson, Ferguson, Campese and Pappali.

Stats

-Raiders won 5 of the last 6 against the Broncos @ Canberra Stadium.
-Raiders 4-0 @ home this season with an average winning margin of 14.75 points. (8 game winning streak @ home)
-Last time these team met (Round 22 - 2012) the Raiders won 28-12 @ Canberra stadium.
-Broncos 3-3 on the road this season with 2 of their 3 wins coming against "bottom dwellers" (Tigers & Dragons)
-Raiders averaging 29.5 ppg @ home this season
-Broncos averaging 17.7 ppg on the road this season.
-Raiders only 2-3 in their last 5 games, however their record is deceptive as the 2 wins have been over competition heavyweights (Melbourne & Newcastle) and 2 of their 3 losses have been competitive losses against strong teams (Manly & Cronulla) with one touch up by the Cowboys (30-12) in NQ, which is always a tough game. All 3 losses were on the road.
-Broncos 1-4 in their last 5 games.
-The Broncos have not won in more than 3 years when they are getting more than 6 points start ATS.
-Both teams with terrible ATS stats across the board from a variety of angles, however the Broncos are slightly more impressive.
-The Broncos are 3-5 playing MNF over the last 4 and a half seasons and the Raiders are the undisputed kings of MNF with a sterling 10-5 record.

The one stat that really bothers me is that the Raiders are only 1-7 ATS coming off the bye, however I feel slightly more comfortable with Campese in the team as his on field IQ and calming influence on his team cannot be underestimated. Also with the emotionally explosive Dugan gone the entire team is more stable and more importantly his strong influence over arguably the Raiders most important player (Blake Ferguson) is nullified. NRL players are treated like superstars in (rugby league mad) Canberra and the Raiders have been a very young and super talented team, with a poor culture and too many undisciplined players for the last few years, however the Furner brothers (Coach & CEO) along with highly respected captain Campese have done an admiral job at slowly adding discipline and structure to this unit and the results ARE starting to show.

Long story short - The Raiders are the better team this season, both on paper and current form and should be too strong at home with an outside chance that they destroy the Broncos if they get on an early roll in what should be a high scoring game.



Notes -

*On the 1st try scorer, you can get Under 8 minutes @ Sportingbet, Centrebet, Sportsbet, IAS, Luxbet
**Playing it safe with the -7.5, however Americans are in luck because at 5Dimes you can get the -7.5 @ -110 and for the Aussies - Luxbet just moved to $1.92 @ the -7.5. Otherwise for those that can only get -8, that's fine too, however there is a chance that late money for the Broncos (traditionally a heavily bet team) will bring most lines into -7.5 anyway?

[Guinser]

Any lean on the collingwood spread?

[MrXYZ]

Nice work on the Heat Sando. Easy money to start the week

I hope you fellow Aussies are enjoying the long weekend!

[sando]

Any lean on the collingwood spread?

Melbourne giving up 133+ ppg against worse clubs than Collingwood, so I really like the Pies team total over 129.5 (Sportsbet) but I should point out that I'm ice cold in AFL at the moment. The spread seems to low to me, the Demons average losing margin is around 77 ppg, and the Pies are only asked to cover 70, but I can tell you why? The Queens birthday game is the Demons biggest game of the year, like their GF, so the books are expecting more of a fight from the D's than usual. So many injuries for the poor bastards (Demons) now Frawley out as well, watch Cloke kick 6 now.

Steel sidebottom Over 26.5 disposals a nice bet too (Luxbet). He's been hot lately and he'll see a lot of the pill today.

[Guinser]

Alright thx sando just trying to get into AFL and at very least fun to sweat on the afl site

[gimps_77]

is there a reason why sportsbet have taken tonights NRL off the board?

Canberra are into -7.5 like you said but am interested if anyone knows team changes ??

[gimps_77]

it has just come back
I wouldn't be suprised by some late withdrawals from the broncs in particular their origin stars and this is why the books are nervous

[OZnBa Fan]

God bless your soul sando

[rohan22no]

Tips on the Raiders game looking very sexy once again Sando!

[ExodusNZ]

Great write up, great result!

I was going to stay away from this game (and had Broncos tipped on my fantasy league)

But after reading that....the rest is history

[Crowing Capers]

Give the man a Slab of beer
Sando slamming NRL
As said already great write up ,awesome results today.
Cheers

[sonofben]

Had a damn good long weekend Sando, many thanks to you! Cheers!

[Cobra Kai]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the ICC Champions Trophy going on right now?

Being a short tournament brings a lot of unpredictability and I could see a few teams quite easily winning it.

That being said India at $4 seems to be the standout play to take out the tournament. With so many of their batsman in such good form from the IPL I'd rate their batting lineup as being the best by quite a margin. Also with a win from their opening game I find it very hard seeing them missing out on a semi final spot.

[Lilfatbum]

Cheers to the Sando, what awesome weekend, may there be many more to come!

[odog11]

Was on the Raiders after reading up a little myself, one article mentioned that the chilly weather would probably be tough for the Broncos. Great write up, need to remember to check in on your thread.

[sando]

Rugby Union

Brittish & Irish Lions continuing their build up to the 1st test against the Wallabies with another hit out against a combined NSW & QLD country team. The Lions will of course win this match, however 76.5 points is a hell of a lot to be giving up to a team that will be half stocked with Super Rugby players. For most of the NSW/QLD players this is a once in a career opportunity to play against the best team in world rugby and they will play their hearts out, for what they lack in skill, talent and pedigree against the mighty Lions they will surely make up in motivation and intensity. The Lions know they will win this match so they will be using it as opportunity to trial set piece plays, get game time into more of their players and most importantly stay injury free as the 1st test against the Aussies is only 11 days away. They will be more concerned with having a clean injury free hit out and testing their depth than they will be about running up a big score. Also the Lions will not be fielding their "first 15" and will be resting plenty of key players in this match. The Lions will win and probably by a large margin, but 76.5 points is a such a hefty line to cover in an hour and a bit of Rugby, against a team not named Namibia, Kenya, etc. Would not be surprised if the margin is less than 20 points at the end of the 1st half...?



Note - For the US boys, this is rugby union, different sport to rugby league (NRL). Most people when they say "Rugby" are referring to rugby union, whereas rugby league is usually known simply as "league" or "rugby league" but just the word "rugby" by itself only ever means rugby union (I know it can get confusing).

Edit - Wow I stuffed up, +76.5 available @ Pinny for +110/$2.10

[davopnz]

Have a huge play on Lions -74.5, most of the nsw/qld players are amateurs, there is only two super rugby players that have actually played a super game.

the set piece and breakdown will get absolutely hammered, expect a few cards.

[RedDevil89]

Hmm i would be leaning towards taking the points like Sando....i'd be interested in gimps opinion, union seems to be his strongest sport.

These special games are always so hard to pick, so many different factors, like lineups, motivation, and teams approach for the games.

[sando]

Have a huge play on Lions -74.5, most of the nsw/qld players are amateurs, there is only two super rugby players that have actually played a super game.

the set piece and breakdown will get absolutely hammered, expect a few cards.

Thers a few Super Rugby boys mate, although I must say I respect your rugby knowledge highly and a tad worried that your so keen on the Lions

Tim Davidson
Josh Mann-Rea
Phoenix Battye
Michael Snowden
Blake Enever (rookie)
Jarrad Butler
Angus Roberts

All capped super15 players

Also Tommy Cox is on the Brumbies playing list

Its in the centres where I think the real danger lies, with amateurs Tareta-Junior Siakisini and Lewie Catt, battling what has been labelled "the greatest lions centre pairing ever" in O'Driscoll & Roberts. Talk about a mismatch...

The Reds game was a bruising affair and their were plenty of knocks to come out of it for the Lions, I don't really think they'll get much out of 2nd gear for this one, I mean they know ther are going to win, this is just a full contact training run for them, why push the envelope with the 1st test so close and risk more injuries?

Best of luck tonight anyway mate...

[davopnz]

Yeah but I mean the only credible super players there are Roberts and Battye. I just don't see how those cowboys are gonna get any ball with Tipuric, O'Brien and Richie Gray cleaning them out all night. We'll see I guess, it will come down to whether the lions want to put up a score for the record books or not.

BOD to get a double @ 2.29 and a hattrick @ 5.50 appeals

and Faletau to score @ 2.20, should come off the bench early in the 2nd half, the man is a beast with ball in hand.

[gimps_77]

Cheers for the props RedDevil

There are in fact 2 games tonight and I'm more interested in the first, Blues v France

France have 1 starter left from their game against NZ. The blues also have a raft of changes but still have regular players from their super side aswell as young plays wanting to succeed. The difference between say a force v lions match last week and this one is that the blues are treating this seriously.

http://www.rugby365.com/article/5448...blues-v-france

Im on the blues +11.5

In regards to the lions v country.....last time they met it was 48-3 --> granted this was 12 years ago. As much as it is a great honour to represent country and in fact play the lions, no amount of this will change the fact that the difference in talent on the park will be huggggeee. This will go one of two ways, lions blast them early and go cruise control or its lackluster first half and lions stretch away in the 2nd

Country have had only 5 days of training, the lions have a backline playing out of position particular hogg at 5/8 and maitland at fullback.

If it is closish half time I'd get on the half time handicap for the lions but I'm not playing the -76.5. I think you will get something in play that is much much less i.e. -55/60. The reason i am not playing the +76.5 is because this could easily be a blow out of epic proportions with no scoring plays for country

I believe the best play is the unders (92.5) however I am not making this a play. I might if the blues get up but at this stage no