[Bazz27]

Yer bad beats do happen like that crows missed late goal was only a 1pt behind cost me $925 but you move on to find the next winner otherwise your a beaten mug & just always remember peoples that (scared money looses) !!

[Cobra Kai]

176.5? you lost by .5?

I got on late it was 178.5. Forgot the original post was 176.5, bugger.

[Aussiefalconfan]

This suns game is ridiculas if suns lead at half all my action is neary dead ffs

Sure enough once i start tailing sando hard after his streak we can't win one bet ffs

[Lakey]

Bloody North are finding a way to screw us every week.

[KierenRaj]

Looks like a bad night so far with NRL and AFL. But keep hope alive..

[Degenerate]

Damn Gold Coast!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Aussiefalconfan]

im done tailing for good no matter who is it no offence sando im just bad luck like that

[bill2102]

Here's one.

Bulldogs / Eels OVER earlier in the season.

Needed like 2 points in the second half.

Didn't score a single point in a blowout game.

How often does a NRL game go without a single point?

Was on the same bet. Thought it was easy money at ht. Could do nothing but laugh.

[RedDevil89]

HERES MY PICKS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAYS GAMES:

Parramatta Eels v Sydney Rossters - Roosters 13+
The roosters smashed the Eels earlier this year, and are already looking like a solid top 4 team. The eels again seem to be wooden spoon contenders. I dont expect this game to be 50-0 again because the Ricky Stuart (eels coach) has just informed half his squad they wont be needed for next year so expect the boys staying on for 2014 to step up and maybe abit of fire from those who are being let go to impress future employers. Roosters are too good in defence, and Eels have nothing other then Hayne going forward. Easy victory for Roosters 13+

NQ Cowboys vs Canterbury Bulldogs - Canterbury bulldogs Win

The cowboys have had a poor season after what some thought they would be top 4 contenders. They have Matt scott and Thurston backing up from origin and are up against a fresh bulldogs outfit who have had all week to prepare. Thurstons wife is due to give birth anytime so he could be sitting in the maternity ward for this one. The bulldogs who were the form team last year losing to a disciplined melbourne storm side in the grand final, had a slow start to the year with a quite a few players being suspended or injured, but they are back to almost full strength and have hit form with 4wins from their last 5. There is no question that the Bulldogs should have this game in the bag, i cant think of any excuses to not tip them.

Essendon Bombers v Carlton Blue - Essendon -3.5
Carlton despite their victory last week have failed to step up in the big games so far this season. Essendon may have had a loss last week to Sydney but i expect them to come back strong this week. For better odds i'd probably take the Essendon under 39.5

GWS v Geelong - GWS +87.5

GWS have been the easy beats this year, and boy have they taken a hammering. I think they have enough point in them to cover the 87.5 though.

Good luck all

Winner winner chicken dinner! 5/5 this weekend

[ender749]

nice one Devil always love a

[Jago2008]

So the North Melbourne Kangaroos take a 25 point lead after the first quarter, are favored by something like 18 for the match and manage to lose - this team should be on fade for the rest of the year...

[sonofben]

Again with the Bulldogs Sando! Machine! Will be on todays picks for sure! Enjoy the long weekend!

[sando]

WBC light heavyweight.

Dawson the by far superior "boxer" with victories over Tarver (2) Johnson (2) and Hopkins but he is coming off a recent loss to Ward, although everybody loses to Ward. His last few victories have all been via decision however he has totally fallen out of favour with the public and has been labelled a boring fighter by the media. This is as much a death sentence in big time boxing as losing fights as the public wont pay to watch boring fighters, and without PPV sales their is little cash to "get paid". Stevenson a big time KTFO artist (80%), so the under 8.5 rounds is also a small hedge on Stevenson actually winning, but probably as he pushes forward early with his aggression and leaves himself wide open with his power punches from the waist he will get busted up on the counter as Dawson's power punches are in his lead hand (right handler fighting southpaw) and his counter punches are nasty and movement is 1st class. Dawson is a "decision" fighter these days but he needs something exciting to get his career back on track and shake the boring label (which can be very hard to do). Probably Stevenson with an early (lucky) KO or Dawson with a stoppage after the 5th/6th round as the older and more inexperienced Stevenson tires, but to be honest Dawson a class above Stevenson here so -188 relatively generous.

[sando]

Netball



Steel scoring @ 61.3ppg and are allowing 58.7 ppg (against)

Tactix are scoring 53.7ppg and are allowing 66.8ppg (against)

Tactix average losing margin - 17.1ppg
Tactix average losing margin against NZ teams - 19.8
Tactix average losing margin on the road - 20 points

Steel average home winning margin - 9 points

The Steel were looking great for a finals berth at 5-3 but after two hard fought losses to the Vixens and Magic on the road in the last 2 weeks they are now facing an uphill battle to make the finals, however they have 3 winnable games to close out the regular season and fight for a finals berth, however they are battling the Magic, Firebirds and the Pulse for the final spot in the top 4. Just winning all three games won't be enough, they need a big % boost to catch the Magic & Firebirds (who both have at least one tough game to come) and today's game against the Tactix presents just that opportunity (like playing GWS or the D's in AFL) so it's unlikely the Steel will take their foot off the gas at any point during the game.

(-13.5 available @ Sportsbet, IAS, Bet365)

Edit - I entered the wrong book on the spreadsheet, Bet365 offering $1.90/-110, Sportsbet only offering $1.88

[OZnBa Fan]

Hey sando sportsbet are over ring $2.10 under 10.5 rounds that not interest you?

[OZnBa Fan]

Hey sando sportsbet are offering $2.10 under 10.5 rounds that not interest you?

[sando]

AFL

Swans @ Crows
The Swans game was a beautiful thing to watch live (as a member and a rabid Swans fan) however to watch that Crows point dribble across the line as I knew the siren was about to sound, and therefore lose the Under by the hook was very very frustrating.

Roos/Suns
No comment. Bad call (especially adding an extra unit to the play). Sorry lads...

Netball

Also contemplating Fever +5.5 @ home against the Firebirds? The Fever have been really good to me @ home this season. (Game starts in 2 hours).

Rabittbrew - check in buddy??

[sando]

Hey sando sportsbet are offering $2.10 under 10.5 rounds that not interest you?

Yeah that's definitely a safer bet, they must have put that market up late, wasn't up earlier when I was browsing the markets. (Says 8 markets available now - was only 6 earlier today).

[sando]

Hey sando when you get back I have a question..

Being a professional bettor how did you apply for a house/unit when you first started doing it full time?

Also what advice would you give to someone whos about 1 year into his adventure of being a full time capper?

Im not a pro mate, I like to think of myself as semi-pro but even that's debatable?

Don't own a house, I rent my sister's house in a shitty area of Adelaide to be honest. I did own a house outright (no home loan) 4 years ago, but I sold the house and put the entire amount into the stock market, as the markets started rebounding from the GFC on what appeared to be a sharp V pattern. Long story short I did really well for the first 6 months and then lost a massive sum of money on Metal Storm (AUS defence technology company), which was the beginning of the end for me.

I used to trade on Soccer, Tennis and NBA on Betfair and would regularly have anything up to 4K in play on a single event, however I am nowhere near that these days and am slowly "rebuilding" my bankroll.

Oh and I have a job like most people, work anywhere from 20-60 hours a week, but have tons of free time at work which is where I do the bulk of my research, and I don't really sleep much either so that helps too.

As far as advice, I've got two books you should read, I've just got to find them and I'll pm you the titles. I've read about a dozen books on poker, 9 or 10 on finance and 4 on sports betting and there are two that really stand out, just can't remember the names at the moment?

People who tell you that "you can't win at sports betting" are simply ignorant. Of course you can, but you have to put in work. Lots of work! its actually like a job, there are no easy winners - old army saying "the seven P's" sums it up perectly - Prior Preparation and Planning, Prevents Piss Poor Perormance.

Also you need two things.
1. You need a high level knowledge of your sport/s of choice
2. You need to understand sports betting (which many think they do and very few actually do). It's a very complex subject and if you find the right book you (the average sports bettor) will realise how much you actually don't know.

Oh and money helps too. You need money to make money - so true...

[ender749]

Sando, would be great if you could share the two books on the thread. I play semi-professional poker and have always wanted to read more on sports betting. I enjoyed Taleb's books (Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan).

Netball: Fever are +5.5 on bet365 but +4.5 on unibet. And since you liked it, I went for it!

[nlin]

Im not a pro mate, I like to think of myself as semi-pro but even that's debatable?

Don't own a house, I rent my sister's house in a shitty area of Adelaide to be honest. I did own a house outright (no home loan) 4 years ago, but I sold the house and put the entire amount into the stock market, as the markets started rebounding from the GFC on what appeared to be a sharp V pattern. Long story short I did really well for the first 6 months and then lost a massive sum of money on Metal Storm (AUS defence technology company), which was the beginning of the end for me.

I used to trade on Soccer, Tennis and NBA on Betfair and would regularly have anything up to 4K in play on a single event, however I am nowhere near that these days and am slowly "rebuilding" my bankroll.

Oh and I have a job like most people, work anywhere from 20-60 hours a week, but have tons of free time at work which is where I do the bulk of my research, and I don't really sleep much either so that helps too.

As far as advice, I've got two books you should read, I've just got to find them and I'll pm you the titles. I've read about a dozen books on poker, 9 or 10 on finance and 4 on sports betting and there are two that really stand out, just can't remember the names at the moment?

People who tell you that "you can't win at sports betting" are simply ignorant. Of course you can, but you have to put in work. Lots of work! its actually like a job, there are no easy winners - old army saying "the seven P's" sums it up perectly - Prior Preparation and Planning, Prevents Piss Poor Perormance.

Also you need two things.
1. You need a high level knowledge of your sport/s of choice
2. You need to understand sports betting (which many think they do and very few actually do). It's a very complex subject and if you find the right book you (the average sports bettor) will realise how much you actually don't know.

Oh and money helps too. You need money to make money - so true...

Good insight Sando.

Mind posting or PMing me the title of those two books you recommend when you remember them?

[sando]

Got 550 betpoints on Tulsa/LA Over 167.5 (WNBA). I'm fading Roxxyfish's Under 167.5 play, I'm so mean haha.

[ExodusNZ]

Got 550 betpoints on Tulsa/LA Over 167.5 (WNBA). I'm fading Roxxyfish's Under 167.5 play, I'm so mean haha.

LOL - Did you sign up to him ?

[sonofben]

Yeah that's definitely a safer bet, they must have put that market up late, wasn't up earlier when I was browsing the markets. (Says 8 markets available now - was only 6 earlier today).

I just bet that the fight wouldn't go the distance @ 1.97

[JM92]

I've just placed a bet on Ferrer to win Roland Garros. This odds are bad as hell in theory but penetrate theory I don't care. I still think Nadal is done for tennis (at least top tier tennis/consistently) and Djokovic basically lost that match the other day, not the other way around. If Nadal gets in trouble early, he might be in a spot he has never been in his career, facing a guy who is more fit than him and will return more shots. Plus rain today will affect the height that the balls gain tommorow on the court, meaning Nadal's top spin shouldn't be as effective. If I wasn't loving is backhand so much right now I would bet a full unit on ferrer, this way its just some change, but still I thought I should mention it.

[Aussiefalconfan]

Cheers for the response mate really appreciate it can't wait to read them books

[MrXYZ]

My 2 cents on being a pro - agree with Sando that you definitively can make a living doing this. But it's hard work and at one point you have to ask yourself tough questions. I got into sports betting to supplement my income while I was studying. Mostly NBA & rugby league. The best part was the lifestyle. Free time when I needed it, being able to focus on my grades and rewarding myself with overseas holidays. Sure beat waiting tables or delivering pizzas.

After my degree ended I took time off to go for it full time. Got into a groove & at one point & I was betting thousands $$$ a week across several books. It was a hell of a ride. Some incredible moments. I've seen it all: huge payouts, burials, half point losses, miracle covers, you name it. But I lost control. With every massive win I almost got buried the next time & after cashing one particular close call (that would've wiped out) I was so sick I had to lie in bed for a couple of weeks. Literally was too exhausted to leave the house. From then I began to cut back, got my mind & body straightened out and only bet on sports as a hobby these days. Still have a lapse every now and then, gotta admit.

The downside when you gamble for a living is the stress. It never ends once the season starts because there's always the next game & you can't get complacent. It can send your life out of balance & one day you end up at a party where you realise you're out of touch with everyone. While they're talking about real life stuff, all you have to show for yourself is spreads, totals and isolation. Nurses, accountants, even the guy at the supermarket, contribute to society in some way. Gamblers don't.

The best advice I can give anyone is: You have to learn to control your own greed. The books win in the end because the house edge is structured in their favour to and most guys will chase losses into oblivion. The sample size in sports in small compared to other forms of gambling but if you project the results after thousands of bets at -110 (or $1.90 for Aussie punters) you inevitably get killed. No disrespect to any of the top cappers here, but always remember the real skill & talent is displayed by players on the court, not by someone betting money on them.

[Aussiefalconfan]

No doubt you need self control I think I could do it I really want to give it go. But yeh the isolation is what would drive me metal

[OZnBa Fan]

any1 know a stream where i can follow this dawson fight?

[RedDevil89]

vipbox.tv usually streams for most sports

[swordsandtequila]

As far as advice, I've got two books you should read, I've just got to find them and I'll pm you the titles. I've read about a dozen books on poker, 9 or 10 on finance and 4 on sports betting and there are two that really stand out, just can't remember the names at the moment?

Would be interested in the two books also.

[sonofben]

1min 16 sec fight! HAHA!

[OZnBa Fan]

dawson knocked out in 76 seconds

[sando]

No worries boys I'll raid my bookshelf when I get home and report back.

Some last minute big out's named for both Warriors and Panthers are making me a bit nervous for those plays, Tim Grant out for the Panthers is very dissapointing.

AFL

2.5* West Coast -17.5 ($1.90 sportingbet)

Been contemplating this game all w/e after watching the Eagles dismal performance against the Tigers last week, however before that game the Eagles have been in great form over the last month going 4-0 albeit against inferior opposition. Long story short, the Eagles are a 5-6 goal better team than the Saints who are in horrible form, and the Eagles have a great record at Etihad winning 4 of their last 5 there. Eagles with arguably the most potent forward line in the comp against Saints out of form and injury hit and inexperienced backline should be the difference. Saints should lift today but so will the Eagles, after both sides woeful efforts last week, so no advantage either way.

[sando]

dawson knocked out in 76 seconds

Yeah was just going to play the Under originally. Silly me. He's done now mentally. After the loss to Ward and now this = mental midget.