[davopnz]

Collison doesn't get more minutes because he's one of the dirtiest players in the game, practically a walking foul

[sando]

Running late today...

NBA

SA @ GS

1.5* Warriors m/l (+121 Pinnacle)

I know this is going to sound eerily similar to what I said yesterday about OKC/MEM, however we can't let one bad read spook us. I have been on the Spurs all series and I do believe they will win the series but after the blow out in SA, the Warriors now present great value as a home dog. No time for a write up.

[sando]

Adding...

Indiana @ NY
1* Knicks 1st Quarter -2 (-105 Pinnacle)

Knicks won both 1st quarters in games 1 & 2 (home games) by 5 and 9 points, and now today more than ever with their backs against the wall they will understand the importance of a fast start, after Indiana improved impossible to catch when jumping out to an early lead in games 3 and 4. I'm not convinced the Knicks will necesarily win/cover in this game but I have reasons to believe they will put max effort into the start of the game as they are also a great front running team. Looks like the Knicks will move Prigioni back into the starting line up after their failed attemp to play big against Indiana (like anyone other than Memphis could do that), which sounds good to me as JR Smith and J Kidd are stone cold at the moment and Prigioni is another legit perimeter threat (at least more so of one than Kidd or Smith ATM). The other thing I like is the 1st quarter will hopefully see no or very little Smith action, as he is a bigger culprit to the Knicks black hole; the ball stops with me iso BS than Carmello and in my opinion the primary reason the Knicks are failing so badly (not to take anything away from the fantastic team play of the Pacers).

*This series reminds me of Lakers-Pistons 2004 NBA finals, the truest example ever of a "superstar team" vs. a "team full of superstars".

[sando]

Indiana @ NY
1* Knicks 1st Quarter -2 (-105 Pinnacle)

Amazing that this cashed. The god damn Knicks missed 3 point-blank lay up's in the 1st quarter. Thank god I'm not on these clowns for the whole game, although good luck to anyone who is.

[Crowing Capers]

We take it and move on Sando... Start of long punting weekend
Took the pacers +6.5 unders 173.5 live
Disagree on your Warriors pick.
Think Spurs close it out
What's your thoughts on the unders that game?

[sando]

We take it and move on Sando... Start of long punting weekend
Took the pacers +6.5 unders 173.5 live
Disagree on your Warriors pick.
Think Spurs close it out
What's your thoughts on the unders that game?

Well your under bet looks rock solid at the moment. Good luck on the Spurs mate. I have no opinion on the Spurs over/under sorry.

Just working on my UFC and AFL plays for this w/e at the moment.

[sando]

Boxing
Thursday May 16th - IBO Super featherweight title

5* Will Tomlinson v Malcolm Klassen ($1.20, -500 Sportingbet/Centrebet) - Cash It.

Tomlinson controlling the fight from start to finish and earning a deserved UD victory. He was cut again which is a concern as he now prepares to travel to the USA in his attempt to crack the big time. No suprise how opposition trainers are going to "game plan" against him moving forward.

MMA/Boxing


12-13 +13.74 units


UFC on FX 8

1.5* Vitor Belfort (+108 Pinnacle) v Luke Rockhold
0.25* Belfort via Submission (+1150 Sportsbet)
Vitor the superior BJJ practioner. Odds are ridiculous. Worth a sprinkle.

1.25* Ronaldo Souza via Submission (-128 Sportsbet) v Chris Camozzi
BJJ/Judo master with 13 (of 17) wins via submission, against a guy who has 3 (of 5) losses via submission.

0.5* Michel Richard Dos Prazeres (+140 Pinnacle) v Paulo Thiago
Not much known about BJJ boy Prazeres, but he is undefeated (16-0) fighting in low to mid range level MMA and Vale Tudo events. This wager is more of a Thiago fade.

Parlay

1* Rafael Natal & Gleison Tibau (-101 Pinnacle)

[sando]

NRL

Gold Coast @ Brisbane
1.5* Under 36.5 ($1.97 Pinnacle)
0.5* Titans m/l ($2.15 Pinnacle)


AFL

Keenly following the weather in Perth. Have a play a really like but going to wait until closer to the game for a more accurate weather update.

[king_danilo92]

what happend to your tennis plays?

[sando]

NBA

1-1 for -0.55 units.

For the second day in a row I jumped off the team I had been riding through the series and paid the price. Really forward to the Western conference finals, both as a fan and as a sports bettor.

For now my focus moves to footy, fighting and netball. Hoping for a big w/e.

what happend to your tennis plays?

I had a horrible run over the AUS open where I sucked and was probably the worst tennis capper in the world. Im not posting tennis plays anymore. Is that what you wanted to hear? Happy now?

[burkestar]

ooft tough call on the titans, the broncos could quite easily take that game, but i do like the under

[aussieH]

No rain on the radar in perth

[Rabbitbrew]

My netball play:

Magic @ Southern Steel (+5.5)

Another important game in regards to both teams finals prospects. While they won last week the Magic were terrible for the majority of the game. They are also on a short turn around having played on Monday and now playing on Saturday. The Steel employ pretty much the same zone defense as the Pulse but with a much stronger offense. I have the Steel rated to win by 1 goal but I'll take the line of 5.5 here.

More to follow later...

[the tross]

cheers rabs, i'm on it.

[davopnz]

love the steel, purely based on the fact that the magic don't deserve to be laying points imo. their turnovers are painful to watch

[CaptainOmar111]

Cheers Sir

[sando]

AFL

Western Bulldogs @ Gold Coast
2* Over 180.5 ($1.88 Sportsbet)
1* Bulldogs +10.5 ($1.93 Bet365)
0.5* Bulldogs m/l ($2.40 Pinnacle)
Beautiful weather for footy on the Gold Coast (22c). Both teams looked great offensively last week, the doggies just strolling through the corridor against the Roos, and moving the ball fast and efficiently into the forward line (at least in the 1st half). An argument could be made that Robert Murphy is actually the most important individual player on any one team, such is the importance of his link play and run out of defence and his ability to hit targets in stride.

Freemantle @ Sydney
1.5* Swans 1-39 ($2.10 Sportsbet)

Geelong @ Collingwood
1.5* Magpies 1st Half +11.5 ($1.91 Sportingbet)
1* Magpies 1st Half m/l ($3.00 Bet365)

Brisbane @ Essendon
2.5* Bombers -49.5 ($1.95 Pinnacle)
1* Stewart Crameri Over 2 Goals ($1.87 Luxbet)

[Rabbitbrew]

I'm am missing four games but here are some stats that stand out from the netball this year:

Totals
50-22 over/under
Southern Steel: 7 over - 0 under
Queensland Firebirds: 6 over - 1 under
Northern Mystics: 7 over - 1 under

ATS
Northern Mystics: 1-7 (Home 1-4, Away 0-3)
Adelaide Thunderbirds: 5-2 (Home 3-0)
Waikato Magic: Away 0-3
West Coast Fever: Home 4-1 , Away 0-3
Southern Steel: Away 3-0

[sando]

1* Stewart Crameri Over 2 Goals ($1.87 Luxbet)

I usually place my wagers first. Today I posted first and then started going through the list and placing my wagers. As I got to the bottom and went to place the above bet (less than 10 minutes after I posted) it had already moved into $1.72 - Hilarious.

[sando]

NRL

Gold Coast @ Brisbane
1.5* Under 36.5 ($1.97 Pinnacle) - Loser
0.5* Titans m/l ($2.15 Pinnacle) - Loser

Had a chance to get the Under 38 @ $1.88 but got greedy and went for the juicy odds on Pinnacle as I expected this match to easily stay under. Payed the price as the game ended on exactly 38. Should have just played the Bunnies ATS as was the plan all week (and somehow I talked myself out of it as the line climbed a couple of points).

No matter. Will be posting a pound it play in a little bit (got some more research to do).

[Rabbitbrew]

Added Netball play:

Adelaide Thunderbirds/NSW Swifts UNDER 98.5

Last week the Swifts matched it with the Vixens up until half time. Then the coach benched their best defender for the 3rd quarter, where the Vixens set up the 8 goal victory by out scoring the Swifts by 7 goals. It was also the Vixens highest scoring quarter. Talk out of the Swifts this week has been all about this 3rd quarter and limiting the speed at which the Thunderbirds feed their shooters at the top of the circle. I can't see the Swifts coach making the same mistake again this week. For me, this all points to the game total going under. Game rated to be 89 goals.

Bet365 and Centrebet currently have this total at 96.5 goals. Sportsbet have it at 98.5 goals

Not an 'official' play, but I am having a small wager on Steel to win by 1-10 goals.

Not sure if I like anything else. I will post if I do!

[davopnz]

essendon looking pretty pathetic, is there any hope for this bet?(dont watch afl a lot)

[sando]

NRL

NZ @ Penrith
2* Over 41.5 ($1.91 Bet365)
1* Panthers -2 ($1.92 Sportsbet)
0.25* Panthers (to win by) 13+ ($4.00 Bet365)


Parramatta @ St George
1* Dragons (to win by) 1-12 ($3.10 Bet365)

[sando]

essendon looking pretty pathetic, is there any hope for this bet?(dont watch afl a lot)

Actually mate it's more the Lions playing a blinder, although the loss of star forward Hurley after 5 minutes was a big blow. The main problem is the Lions simply playing with a higher intensity than the Don's The bet is definitely in trouble but not out of the question. The Bombers are the best offensive team in the competition statistically and are capable of putting on a lot of points in a hurry. I would say 30/70 (%) at the moment. The h/t line of -33 looks temping for 1x

[davopnz]

you still working on your pound it play?

[sando]

AFL

Half Time play (79-32 Hawthorn)

GWS @ Hawthorn

1.5* Hawks -98.5 ($1.90 Bet365)

It's less than a goal from the starting line. The Hawks haven't really played that great yet are still up by 47 at HT and the young Giants are are a terrible 2nd half team. Thinking the Hawks will run away with this one.

You can also get -98.5 ($1.88 @ Luxbet) or -100 ($1.90 @ Sportingbet/Centrebet)

[sando]

you still working on your pound it play?

Sorry mate I should have clarified. It was going to be 3x on the Panthers/Warriors Over but I decided to spread the risk with the other bets on the Panthers ATS & 13+ It's bizarre because on paper the Warriors are close to the most talented team in the NRL, however since their GF appearance couple of years ago the Warriors have just been heading downhill, and although they have been pretty good at home this year, they remain woeful on the road and the Panthers (despite having the least talented list in the league) have been fabulous at home this year in 4 of their 5 matches and especially the last two. Big Tim Grant arguably the best prop in the world at the moment and have a cheeky prop bet on him today (over 32 tackles) as I expect him to lead from the front against the formidable Warriors pack and also to cement his position as NSW's #1 big man (yes Grant not Tamou).

[davopnz]

cheers for the insight.

darned essendon, spineless stuff

[Rabbitbrew]

Steel win by 7.

I love netball

[davopnz]

sadly had that parlayed with spineless essendon for my afternoon fix grr

[the tross]

thanks Rabs

[aussieH]

Well done rabs

[kts]

fremantle dockers +20.5

[Rabbitbrew]

Bet365 and Centrebet currently have this total at 96.5 goals. Sportsbet have it at 98.5 goals

Hope you got on early. Sportsbet total now at 95.5 goals.

Who told?

[fitguy67]

Big congrats and thanks on the Panthers rout...perfect NRL night only thwarted by under-estimating the extent of the Dragons win...well played.

Also to Rabbitbrew for the nice netball winner.