[aussieH]

Weather update in Adelaide. I like a weather bet.

[sando]

Weather update in Adelaide. I like a weather bet.

Horrible. It's relentlessly pouring down where I am.

Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
2* Under 176.5 ($1.90 Luxbet)

[sando]

NBA Playoffs

2.5* Clippers -5 (-108 Sportsbet) - Cash It
1.5* Warriors @ Nuggets Under 211 (-105 Pinnacle) - Cash It
1* Bulls @ Nets Under 182 (-111 Pinnacle) - Loser

Another great day in the NBA and a nice start to the playoffs, going 2-1 and hitting the two big plays to be up almost 3 units on the day.


16-2 Run over the last week on my NBA plays.

[aussieH]

I pounded the under and under 150 points in the. Crows game. Can't believe the line did not come down in the hours leading into the game. Thanks for the weather info.

Would have cleaned up this weekend if not for the swans and eagles giving up good early leads.

[cheven]

Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
2* Under 176.5 ($1.90 Luxbet)

Adelaide Crows	12.8 (80)
Western Bulldogs	4.4 (28)

Nice one, seems so obvious in retrospect

[elPkay]

Any plays today?

[sando]

Any plays today?

Sorry mate I fell asleep before I could post my plays today, shame as I had another 2-0 day although I won't obviously be counting those plays (Lakers/Spurs Under 189 and OKC -10) on my SBR record. Anyway the plan is to be playing a lot of totals and in particular unders throughout the playoffs, at least until the books adjust the totals according to "playoff tempo" which I am not convinced has happened yet. For example there has been 5 under's and 3 overs cashed and All 3 of the overs went way over and 3 of the 5 under's went way under!

[sando]

NBA

1.5* Nets -5 (-107 Pinnacle)
The public are slightly favouring the Nets and the "experts" are strongly favouring the Bulls ATS in the one. Well the Nets are hot and the Bulls are most definitely not. Still question marks lingering over Noah's health (foot) and the Nets clearly have the two best players on the court in D-Will and Lopez. I'm riding with the sheep on this one.

[sando]

Adding...

NBA

1* Bulls/Nets 1st Quarter Under 47 (-111 Pinnacle)


MLB

Milwaukee @ San Diego

2* Under 7 (-113 Pinnacle)
1* Brewers (-118 Pinnacle)

Texas @ LA Angels

1* Rangers (+101 Pinnacle)

MLB Record - 9-6

[therealdealau]

Gl mate. In NYC currently, my concierge scored me decent seats to the Knicks game 2.
Will be cheering your boys

[ExodusNZ]

Wow just logged in to watch, only 2-2 still!

[Crowing Capers]

Great call unders 1Q Sando

[sando]

Adding...

NBA

1* Bulls/Nets 1st Quarter Under 47 (-111 Pinnacle)

37 Point 1st Quarter! Cash that bitch.

Now 17-2 in the NBA over the last week.

What a surprise an Austrialian trying to cap the NBA and failing miserably.

[ExodusNZ]

Great call Now lets go nets!

[sando]

NBA

Just working on my plays now. These are my early leans...

Celtics +6.5/Over 186

Heat -14/Under 197

Nuggets -8/Over 207.5

[JM92]

On the Celtics + 7 and the Warriors over sando!

Not sure about the over on the Knicks game though, both teams will have to be with the hot hand, we'll probably have another slow paced game! good luck whatever you play

[sando]

JM thanks for the input mate.

Yes I have an opinion on every game today. Why not? I have been doing great (17-3) the last week heading into the playoffs and I have spent a lot of time thinking about the 1st round match-ups, the individual player match-ups, and reviewing game 1's looking for clues to the way the various series will play out.

1-1 Yesterday for -0.61 units. 3-2 for the play-offs and up about 2.5 units so far. Still on a great run overall.

NBA

2* Celtics +7 (-116)
Bought half a point as 7 is a key number in the NBA. I will only buy the hook to reach +/- 5 and 7, the two absolute key numbers in NBA ATS betting.
1.5* Andre Iguodala Over 13.5 points (-113)
With Gallinari out, Iggy simply has to step up and shoulder more of the offensive load. As much as he is known as an elite perimeter defender, he has proven he can be a go to guy offensively and now (the playoffs) is the time to deliver.
1* Nuggets -8 (-109)
Lee out for the Warriors and Farried back for the Nug's. Big swing.
1* Miami/Milwaukee Under 197 (-105)

[JM92]

I think the same about you on those key numbers, I think LTA once even showed me a great stat about them and I got fixed on them ever since. glad I could get the 7 earlier. Will tail you on the Nuggets bet if the Celtics don't fail me!

[sando]

Forgot to mention, all bets placed at Pinnacle (as per usual).

MLB

2-1 yesterday. +1.75 units. 11-7 overall record. Up about 10 units but can't be bothered working it out at the moment. Been hitting the bigger plays and losing the smaller ones, which is always good.


1* Rangers (-105)
Rolling with the Rangers again. Not sold on Vargas or the Angels under-achieving list of big hitting, no run getting, super stars.

1* Tigers -1.5 (+118)

[MacVPTgod]

Iggy bet is money. Which book did you get that bet at?

[sando]

Well Boston's 2nd Half was just horrible, however the good news for anyone who tailed is Iggy (over 13.5 points) leads all scores with 12 points after the 1st Q!

Iggy bet is money. Which book did you get that bet at?

Pinnacle. They have started doing NBA prop bets now. Half hour after I posted it the bet was crunched into -128.

[grim259]

Iggy bet is money. Which book did you get that bet at?

Bovada has props on anything and everything. Got it at 14 for -125. Cashing it soon.

[davopnz]

dam nuggets disgrace >.<

[sando]

NBA

2-2 yesterday in the NBA for -0.74 units. Pretty much breaking even the last couple of days however still on a 19-5 run since I've started posting plays again (last week or so).

Ok so today I'm feeling good about a high scoring game in OKC, and am tossing up whether to play the total (212) or individual team totals, (OKC - 111.5) (Houston - 101.5). Also maybe Harden under 26.5 as he just always seems to struggle against his former team.

Anyway the Rockets put on 91 points in game 1 shooting a woeful 36.3% fg and 22.2% 3pt, so you would expect their team total to go up today? OKC put on 120 points in game 1 and shot a phenomenal 53% fg and 41.7% 3pt so you would expect their total to go down?

Any input is welcome...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFL

Killed last w/e in the AFL with my only loser being the Swans and my 10,000 word write up haha. Otherwise a great w/e and for me two in a row (although I didn't post plays the previous w/e) as I cleaned up on the Blues at both the m/l and ATS over in Perth against a depleted eagles team.

Will be posting a play or two for the blockbuster Anzac Day clashes (lest we forget) and probably the rest of my AFL card as well. Got a couple of dogs I really like this w/e...

[sando]

NBA

LA Lakers @ San Antonio
2* Spurs -8.5 (-112)
1* Over 188 (-108)
Spurs were horrible in game 1 and yet still won by 12 points. No doubt they were a tad nervous after their playoff capitulations the last 2 years, however with a game under their belts you would expect them to relax and play better. Lakers were horrible as well and they are just really banged up, Nash, Artest and now perhaps Meek are not at 100% and this could spell trouble as with a game now under his belt I expect Ginobli to just dominate the Lakers tonight (in limited minutes) as they just have no-one who can match up on him (oh how they miss Kobe). Apart from Manu and the red rocket, Parker was the only other Spur who had a solid game 1, look for Green and/or Neal to step up and the Spurs backcourt will probably destroy the Lakers. The total is set at least 4-5 points lower than would be normal due to the offensive calamity that was game 1. Definite value in the over today.

Houston @ OKC
Cant decide on the right play concerning the total so just going to let it go. Would not be surprised to see OKC win by 20+ and Harden to have another poor game. I expect Parsons to pick up some of the offensive slack today regardless of how Harden plays. I like the way he plays, kid has a high IQ and will be playing a prop bet on Parsons (over 15).

Atlanta @ Indiana
1* Under 187 (-107)


NBA Prop bet special.

Ok I've spent 2 hours pouring over stats and analysing match-up's and this is what I've come up with.

1.5* Paul George Over 19 points (-113)
The NBA's most improved player, this is George's team now. Big game players step up in the playoffs and I expect him to deliver another solid game in front of the adoring Indiana faithful. Who's going to stop him? Korver? Stevenson? Please...

1* Chandler Parsons Over 15 points (-111)
Guy can put up 20+ on any given night. Clear #2 option behind Harden who always seems to struggle against his former team.

1* Kevin Durant Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120)

0.5* Omer Asik Over 10.5 Rebounds (-105)
It's what he does. Boards were down in game #1 because OKC just didn't miss.

0.5* Tim Duncan Under 17.5 points. (-102)
Coach Pop should look to exploit his massive advantage in the back court. Not expecting Timmy to get as many touches as usual.

[sando]

MLB

0-1 for -1 unit as yesterday as the Rangers went down 4-5 in the 11th. Tigers game was postponed and am going to stick with my bet from yesterday at the same odds.

Tigers -1.5 (+118) Scherzer/Davis

MLB Record 11-8

[JM92]

We sharin the same totals mate! good luck

[sando]

AFL

Essendon v Collingwood @ the G

1.5* Either team (to win by) Under 25 points ($1.77 Sportingbet)

1.5* 2nd Half total Over 101.5 ($1.85 Bet 365)

2nd Half's 2013
Round 1. Pies - 49 Don's 70 (total - 119)
Round 2. Pies - 82 Don's 100 (total - 180)
Round 3. Pies - 42 Don's 60 (total - 102)
Round 4. Pies - 65 Don's 61 (total - 126)

Obviously there are a hundred + other relevant variables, however the gist of this is that both teams have been very good in the 2nd Half's this year, and more importantly both teams have sacrificed their defencive structures slightly at the gain of their respective high powered offences. The only negative is that it is ANZAC day which in itself means more of an intense, rough, physical in and under stoppage type game than would normally be the case, however they way these two offences are purring at the moment I think I can factor in the "ANZAC spirit" variable and still come out a winner. Weather should be slightly cloudy with zero chance of precipitation, which therefore won't affect the game.

1* Travis Cloke most goals ($2.75 Sportingbet)
Big Fella is in sensational form and Essendon's biggest goal scoring threat (Hurley) is out.

0.5* Bombers 1st Half m/l ($2.15 Bet 365)



AFL YTD 13-8 +3.31 Units

[gopolks]

What about the game in wellington? That stadinum can have pretty bad swirling winds, not sure who that would favour?

[grim259]

AFL

Essendon v Collingwood @ the G

1.5* Either team (to win by) Under 25 points ($1.77 Sportingbet)

1.5* 2nd Half total Over 101.5 ($1.85 Bet 365)

2nd Half's 2013
Round 1. Pies - 49 Don's 70 (total - 119)
Round 2. Pies - 82 Don's 100 (total - 180)
Round 3. Pies - 42 Don's 60 (total - 102)
Round 4. Pies - 65 Don's 61 (total - 126)

Obviously there are a hundred + other relevant variables, however the gist of this is that both teams have been very good in the 2nd Half's this year, and more importantly both teams have sacrificed their defencive structures slightly at the gain of their respective high powered offences. The only negative is that it is ANZAC day which in itself means more of an intense, rough, physical in and under stoppage type game than would normally be the case, however they way these two offences are purring at the moment I think I can factor in the "ANZAC spirit" variable and still come out a winner. Weather should be slightly cloudy with zero chance of precipitation, which therefore won't affect the game.

1* Travis Cloke most goals ($2.75 Sportingbet)
Big Fella is in sensational form and Essendon's biggest goal scoring threat (Hurley) is out.

0.5* Bombers 1st Half m/l ($2.15 Bet 365)



AFL YTD 13-8 +3.31 Units

So take the magpies at -7.5? or Bombers at +7.5?

[davopnz]

either team by under 25 is gold

[sando]

What about the game in wellington? That stadinum can have pretty bad swirling winds, not sure who that would favour?

Well the match is at Westpac stadium, a rugby ground about the same size as the SCG but apparently 17m thinner, meaning lots of tight congested footy.

Key facts - The Swannies lead the AFL in clearances, hit outs and contested possessions, whilst the Saints are ranked 17th in clearances and 15th in hit-outs.

What does this mean? Bad news for the Saints. After last weeks extremely un-Sydney like effort in the 2nd half against the Cats combined with the significance of playing on ANZAC day and in NZ, you can expect a fired up Sydney team who should be too big, strong and physical for a relatively young Saints list missing key hard-nut Milne and key-forward Maister. Although the Saints still have some solid veterans (Hayes, Montagna, Riewold and Del Santo) the Swans have twice as many. Two players on the park for the Saints today (Dempster and Dennis-Lane) couldn't even get a game for the Swans...

The Swans have the advantage both forward, back and in the middle. The question is simply how much will the Swans win by?

[ACoochy]

Good luck with the footy tips this season Sando. Hope you hit alot of winners

[brumbies]

sando, are you registered in any tipping competitions?

[sando]

Another great day. Rolling...

NBA

LA Lakers @ San Antonio
2* Spurs -8.5 (-112) - Cash It
1* Over 188 (-108) - Cash It

Atlanta @ Indiana
1* Under 187 (-107) - Loser

1.5* Paul George Over 19 points (-113) - Cash It

1* Chandler Parsons Over 15 points (-111) - Cash It

1* Kevin Durant Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120) - Loser

0.5* Omer Asik Over 10.5 Rebounds (-105) - Cash It

0.5* Tim Duncan Under 17.5 points. (-102) - Cash It

MLB
Tigers -1.5 (+118) Scherzer/Davis - Cash It