[sando]

NBA

Raptors +5 (-104) 2*
Raptors m/l (+197) 0.5*

*Hawks lost 2 of their last three at home with the win being by 5 over the Bucks. Raptors have won 5 of their last 6. No Horford should open things up in the paint for Johnson and Valunciunas.

[sando]

NBA

2-0 today
5-0 yesterday

Hoping for a solid day tomorrow to take some much needed momentum into the playoffs...

[gopolks]

Kiwis any chance against the Kangaroos?

[Sport_Fish]

NBA

2-0 today
5-1 yesterday

Hoping for a solid day tomorrow to take some much needed momentum into the playoffs...

fixed

[sando]

Kiwis any chance against the Kangaroos?

Absolutely they are ATS although it's highly unlikely they will win outright. IMO the line is too high (16.5). So much power up front for the kiwis, although no SBW sucks, however with Warea-Hargraves, Pritchard, Mannering, Taylor and Isaac Luke, I'd say the Kiwi's can almost break even up front with the 'Roos pack and although they are clearly outmatched in the backs against the likes of Thurston, Inglis, Slater and Morris, they do posses a few game breakers of their own, in Johnson and Kenny-Dowell, although the losses of Matai and Marshall are rather significant. Kiwi's +16.5 for a unit or two looks like a solid play but personally am going to wait until Friday before considering any wagers.

[MrXYZ]

Nice work Sando, great to see you back cashing winners in the NBA! Good luck with the playoffs.

[gopolks]

Absolutely they are ATS although it's highly unlikely they will win outright. IMO the line is too high (16.5). So much power up front for the kiwis, although no SBW sucks, however with Warea-Hargraves, Pritchard, Mannering, Taylor and Isaac Luke, I'd say the Kiwi's can almost break even up front with the 'Roos pack and although they are clearly outmatched in the backs against the likes of Thurston, Inglis, Slater and Morris, they do posses a few game breakers of their own, in Johnson and Kenny-Dowell, although the losses of Matai and Marshall are rather significant. Kiwi's +16.5 for a unit or two looks like a solid play but personally am going to wait until Friday before considering any wagers.

Thanks for replying to my message!

I like the fact that Johnson is fit, I think its going to be much closer than people think, (only if the kangaroos dont score early) I think its worth a bet.

[sando]

NBA

Philly +3 (-112) 2*
*Sixers looking to send coach Collins out on a winning note. Also no Hill, Hibbert or George.
Lakers -2.5 (+102) 2*
Pistons +5 (-103) 1.5*
Raptors -5.5 (-108) 1*
Cavs/Bobcats Over 202 (-110) 1*

All bets placed at Pinnacle.

[sando]

MLB

Mariners (+101) 1*
*King Felix/Scherzer

[sando]

NBA

2nd Half

Knicks +0.5 (-116) 1*
Heat -2 (-111) 1*

[sando]

Philly +3 (-112) 2* - Cash It
Lakers -2.5 (+102) 2* - Cash It
Pistons +5 (-103) 1.5* - Cash It
Raptors -5.5 (-108) 1* - Cash It
Cavs/Bobcats Over 202 (-110) 1* - Cash It

2nd Half Plays

Knicks +0.5 (-116) 1* - Cash It
Heat -2 (-111) 1* - Cash It

Insane run over the last week (although have only posted my plays on SBR for the last 3 days going 14-1)

[sando]

NBA

April 3
2-6
2-5 ATS
0-1 Totals
-6.05 units

April 4
0-1
0-1 ATS
-2 units

April 5
1-6-1
0-5-1 ATS
1-1 Totals
-6.55 units

April 15
5-1
3-1 ATS
2-0 Totals
+7.08 units

April 16
2-0
2-0 ATS/ML
+2.9 units

April 17
7-0
6-0 ATS
1-0 Totals
+8.77 units

Final NBA Regular Season Record

238-207-14 (+30.42 Units) 53.5%

NBA ATS/ML
171-158-11 52%

NBA Totals
67-49-3 57.8%

So a great start to the season and a great end to the (regular) season and a horrible horrible middle. Considering I was up around 50 units at one point, to finish 30 units up is dissapointing, however on the other hand I have been doing this long enough to know that any winning season is a good season. Unlucky to the guys that jumped on in the middle when I was hot and then everything went to shit, sorry about that but was out of my control. Anyway after an amazing week (28-10 on my NBA plays all up however 14-1 on my posted NBA plays at SBR) I'm ready for the play-offs...

[sando]

MLB

Boston/Cleveland Over 8 (-105) 1.5*
(Lester/Mcallister)

Yankees (-112) 1*
(Hughes)
*Jeter out til after all-star break

White Sox (+104) 1*
(Sale)

All bets placed at Pinnacle

MLB Record 8-4

[sando]

AFL

Friday Night Footy - Sydney v Geelong @ the SCG

Key In's & Out's

Sydney - Shaw out.
Geelong - Varcoe out. Kelly in?

Defence -
Maybe the slightest of edges to Sydney, although they are missing two of their permanents from the AFL's best defensive unit in Johnson and Shaw. Johnson has been covered to some extent with LRT moving down back to fill his role, but it's hard to cover the run out of HB and the precision kicking of Shaw who is usually the key link between defence and the midfield. Mattner often filled this role for Adelaide and may need to step up for this game, although Malceski is also a great kick and has been in very nice form so there are definitely options available. The spine of the Swans defensive unit in Richards and Grundy will probably cover the Cats two behemoths in Hawkins and the J-Pod and while man-child tomahawk is an unenviable match-up for 95% of defenders in the comp, All-Australian Teddy can shut anyone down on his day although the Swans may opt to play the bigger body of Grundy on the Tomahawk. The Cats have their own defensive linchpin in Harry Taylor and are also one of the best defences in the comp with rock solid Joel Corey & Corey Enright and the run out of HB from Taylor Hunt and Mackie. In fact over the last 9 years of the comp the Swans and the Cats have between them played in 7 of the 9 GF's and won 5 of the 9 flags and throughout that time have clearly been the best two defences in the competition. Due to the loss of Johnson and Shaw for the Swannies you can barely split the two defences.
Conclusion - Pretty much even.

Midfield -
Clear advantage to the Swans. When people talk best midfields in the comp, it is pretty much just the Pies, Tigers and maybe the Hawks that get mentioned, however if you examine the Swans midfield core of Jack, O'Keefe, Jetta and Parker you will find a midfield as good as any in the AFL.

O'Keefe speaks for himself, All-Australian, Norm Smith Medalist, best & fairest winner, represented VIC and AUS. He is big, strong, super fit and he kick's goals and most importantly he is a big game player.

Jack - Captain of the premiership winning Swans at 25. Has evolved from a strong tagger to an emerging superstar of the comp. Last week played on The great man himself (Ablett) and didn't just break even with Gazza, he owned him. He has also done this to Chris Judd and other greats of the game. Super fit, will run a game out always.

Lewis Jetta - X-factor. His run and carry is second to only Patty Dangerfield in the entire comp and he is easily one of the quickest players in the entire AFL. Bizarrely after starting his career with 19 consecutive behinds, he is now one of the most accurate kicks in the comp, and is a threat from anywhere inside 60m kicking amazing goals on the run.

Parker - Jude Bolton clone. Young hard nut who doesn't miss tackles and will get in and under in any contest regardless of the circumstances. Only 20 but already an emerging star as he enters his third season.

Throw in appearances in the midfield by the comp's #1 contested possession winner in Joey Kennedy, Adam Goodes (I don't think anything needs to be said about Goodes), NAB rising star winner and proven big game player Hannebery and hard nuts Bolton and McVeigh and you have IMO not just a midfield equal to Richmonds and Collingwoods but the best midfield in the AFL. Of course because they hail from the Rugby League dominated city of Sydney the Swans as always fly under the radar despite being the current premiers.

Most important of all - Every single Sydney midfielder kicks goals, usually when they rotate through the forward line for a rest they pinch a goal or two while they are up there, or when they run their vaunted slingshot attack out of their defensive end of the ground and you have almost an entire team of gut-runners streaming towards their forward 50.

Geelong with the likes of Joel Selwood (sensational hard ball get player - second only to Joey Kennedy), the always classy Jimmy Bartel, the freak that is Stevie J and their up and coming guns in Christenson, Motlop, Smedts, etc also have a fabulous midfield and actually they are probably the most similar side to Sydney in the entire comp, they feature a multitude of in and under types and gut runners, they like to move the ball quickly out of defence on the counter attack (Varcoe will be sorely missed here) and they love to play 1 on 1 contested footy as do the Swans. They are also probably the only team in the comp that can match the Swans as far as hard bodied, hard tackling, in and under contested dog fights - for example Sydney and Geelong are the only two teams in the AFL that actually gain an advantage over their opposition when it starts raining (regardless of the opposition) and things get messy.

Having said all that there is just a little more speed, a little more size and significantly more depth in the Swannes midfield.
Conclusion - Advantage Swans.

Forward Line -
IMO Geelong have close to the best forward line in the comp with the man-child-beast Tommy Hawkins, the always reliable big J-Pod, a legend of the modern game in Stevie J and the hard as nails Chapman, who although past his peak, was so good that he still remains one of the elite small forwards in the game. Throw in the speedy and dangerous Motlop and the reliable West and you have a really really good forward line, second only to probably Hawthorn and a healthy West Coast list. The Swans have a very versatile forward line with no key forward target until Tippett arrives in round 13+ otherwise the legendary Adam Goodes (although significantly past his peak) and the potentially great Sam Reid provide the tall targets with a bunch of dangerous crumbers and goal sneaks in McGlynn, Bolton, McVeigh (beautiful kick) and Hannebery and the surprisingly reliable kick (and excellent mark) in Canadian giant Mike Pyke. The Swans strength is that they don't have to rely on any one player to get their goals as literally everybody on the team forward of their defensive 50 chips in, whereas the Cats have a more traditional forward setup with the two big targets surrounded by a dangerous mix of crumbers and SF's.
Conclusion - Advantage Cats.

Ruck -
The Cat's picked up the talented but often injured Hamish Mcintosh from the 'Roos to help solve their massive deficit in the Ruck and surprise surprise he is out injured leaving inexperienced rookie Blicavs battling the hardened premiership winning duo of Mumford and Pike who both are significantly larger. Geelong stupidly gave Mumford to the Swans for virtually nothing, handing the swans a complete gift in the wake of Darren Jolly's departure for Collingwood. Mumford has grown into one of the best ruck man in the comp and now has a very solid back-up in Pyke giving the Swannies one of the better 1-2 ruck duos in the AFL. The Cats on the other hand, I don't even know who they will use as their back-up, often Stevie-J (who can literally do anything) otherwise maybe Lonergan? Regardless the Cats are currently one of the weakest clubs in the AFL in the ruck department (although I should mention young Blicavs does look very talented) and will probably get little "first use" ball at stoppages. There is also talk that Blicavs could be rested this week, further weakening the Cats ruck department.
Conclusion - Significant advantage Swans


Summary
Both the Swans and the Cats are undefeated to start the season, the Cats with three very immpressive come from behind wins in a row and the Swans with a couple of wins over easy-beats GWS & GC to start the season, where they did not look overly impressive and simply did enough to win, followed by an emphatic win against North last w/e, where they trailed by 14 at H/T before blitzing the 'Roos in the 3rd with an 11 goal quarter sending a message to the entire comp in the process as they ran out easy 39 point winners in a game most people had the 'Roos getting up in. The game is at the SCG where the Swans are often close to unbeatable, although the Cats have played well there in the past and do enjoy a good record at the SCG; again it is worth mentioning how similar both these sides are when they both enjoy playing on the smaller confines of the SCG (smallest ground in footy) where it comes down to hard ball gets, first use and winning the contested possession counts. Expect Geelong to get dominated in the centre bounce and stoppages with the Mummy/Pyke duo just two much for rookie Blicavs and some part timer, and whilst Geelong have plenty of players capable of winning their own ball at stoppages regardless of the tap (Selwood, Bartel, etc), Sydney has just as many (Kennedy, O'Keefe, Jack & co). Considering the Mummy/Pike duo monstered North's last week in the 2nd Half allowing the Swans midfielders to win the 2nd Half clearances 20-10, not a good sign for the Cats who have struggled with winning contested possession counts this year and are already 65 contested possessions behind the Swans after a mere three games. Sydney is No.1 in the league for contested possessions and No.3 for clearances; Geelong 10th and 18th respectively.

The Cats will have less space than they’d like on the tight SCG and are coming off their third consecutive six-day break. Sydney have cruised through the opening couple of rounds before dispatching the 'Roos in a blitzkrieg 3rd Q last week that had 16 other teams taking notes. Despite their history of playing close matches (especially at the SCG) this is a vastly different Swans team to the one we have seen over the last decade and the scary thing is they are continuing to get better whereas Geelong is simply trying to maintain at a high level they have been at for a long time and are probably plateau-ing. The Cats have given up early leads in all three of their matches so far and I am not convinced if they give up a significant lead to the Swans they will be able to reel them back in this week, especially at the SCG where the Swannies are the master of shutting the game down (if they so choose to). Sydney's dominance in the ruck and contested possessions should allow them significantly more first use ball and I expect them to establish an early lead which Geelong will once again work at reigning in after HT. Ultimately I think they will fall short and the Swans will win by 2-3 goals.
Note - Of course the Cats will probably have been focusing on their slow starts all week, however on the flip side so will the Swans have been preparing for perhaps a quicker starting Geelong.

Swans 1st Quarter m/l ($1.73 Sportsbet) 1.5*
Swans 1st Half -4.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet) 1*
Swans -7.5 ($1.93 Bet 365) 2*

[Crowing Capers]

Fair ol write up on tonights game that Sando !!!!

flip of coin for me , so taking OVER 176.5. think that total set too low
also taking Norwood 1-39 SANFL think thats a solid play tonight

good to see you have hit back NBA going into the playoffs with some momentum.

letrs slam the books !!!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

This looks like an either team under 15.5 bet

I like the kiwis at the spread in the test match and think Firan is a better player than Marshall these days anyway.

I think tries will be at a premium at a very cold Canberra stadium tonight and 16.5 is a massive amount of points.

Luke at hooker gives the kiwis plenty of spark from dummy half and their forwards will keep it tight.

[Rabbitbrew]

Nice.
Hit the Swans quarter time leader with 9 secs to go.

[Rabbitbrew]

And the half time line by half point.
Money!!!

[Rabbitbrew]

Big loss LRT.

Structures all out now.

Bloods have to dig deep now.

[sando]

Swannies no good after HT. 2-1 on the night to break even.

AFL Saturday

Richmond v Collingwood

Was leaning towards Richmond as a dog with the points, however due to a massive betting plunge on the Tiger's in the last 24 hours they have now firmed into favourites and I am inclined to play them at the m/l. What makes this massive plunge from $2.35 dogs into $1.78 favourites all the more extraordinary is that the 'pies are heavily backed week in and week out due to having the largest supporter base in football and for their record over the last 3-4 seasons. So the pure weight of money for the Tiger's over the last 24 hours leads me to one conclusion only.

Follow the money.

Richmond m/l ($1.85 Pinnacle) 2*

*Added another 0.5 for a total of 2 units.

SBR AFL Record

6-5 -0.82 units

[sando]

NRL

City v Country

Despite the withdrawal of some big names for City in Hayne, Farrah and co, I fail to see how Country have firmed into $1.45 favourites for this match.

Backs - City posses 3 game breakers in the back line in Merritt, Tafua and Jennings compared to two in the Country line up in Uate and Idris, overall City's back line is easily as good as Country's with highly touted James Tedesco and also Joel Reddy completing the City back line.

Halves - Easily the best half on the park and the future Australian half back is Adam Reynolds from City. The biggest rising star in the NRL and also the #1 reason the bunnies are a force this year (yes Reynolds, not Inglis, Merritt or S. Burgess). 19 year old unproven Sironen partners Reynolds in the halves against a very solid pairing of Maloney and McCrone for Country.

Forwards - City boasting the likes of Tim Grant, Tim Mannah, Feleti Mateo Nathan Peats and T-Rex is without doubt a superior forward pack to Country's Tolman, Jackson, Merrin, Ennis (Idiot. Over-rated. Past his best) and big Willie!

Bench - Probably a slight edge to Country on the pine, I do like Sims to come on and do damage as an impact player, however how the fcuk Sam Williams gets a start over Beau Ryan (18th man) I have no idea?

Coaches - Fitler (city) v. Daley (country). Just like the old days when they used to battle it out for both the NSW and AUS 5/8 position.

I'm all over City in this one. Give me the points and the m/l.

City +6 (-101, $1.99 Pinnacle) 2*
City m/l (+173, $2.73 Pinnacle) 1*

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Play the dog every time in city/country

[gopolks]

I wished I had of read this before I put my money on country.

[s2230011]

Pretty sure Daley isn't the coach anymore. Think Barrett is the man atm

[Tommy_de1st]

Sando, good to see you back on the winning track

[sando]

It's a bit late however found another I like.

Hawthorn v Freemantle

Hawks-Hawks-Hawks-Hawks (Lead every quarter)
$1.77 Luxbet 1.5* (It's only around $1.65 at most books - great value)

[Tim Gerry Mander]

It's a bit late however found another I like.

Hawthorn v Freemantle

Hawks-Hawks-Hawks-Hawks (Lead every quarter)
$1.77 Luxbet 1.5* (It's only around $1.65 at most books - great value)

Looking good now - Freo have no Pav.

[sando]

State of Origin Under 20's

Unlike their big brothers the baby blues are the defending U20 origin champs. QLD can't dominate origin forever, the new wave of young talent coming through for NSW looks promising for the future. NSW possess more game breakers/match winners and they are bigger and stronger especially in the forwards. Look for the big NSW pack to smash their way up the middle in the 1st half and potentially tire in the second half as the smaller more mobile QLD forwards look to run out the entire game. A 1st half play on the baby blues is the safe choice IMO.

NSW -2.5 1st Half ($1.90 Luxbet) 1*

[aussieH]

When is the state of origin on. Under 20 match.


Tigrs were terrible today. Cooling wood shut them down

[sando]

State of Origin Under 20's

Unlike their big brothers the baby blues are the defending U20 origin champs. QLD can't dominate origin forever, the new wave of young talent coming through for NSW looks promising for the future. NSW possess more game breakers/match winners and they are bigger and stronger especially in the forwards. Look for the big NSW pack to smash their way up the middle in the 1st half and potentially tire in the second half as the smaller more mobile QLD forwards look to run out the entire game. A 1st half play on the baby blues is the safe choice IMO.

NSW -2.5 1st Half ($1.90 Luxbet) 1*

Well I was right about one thing, NSW did indeed smash QLD, however I got it the wrong way around, as after NSW scored the first two tries of the match and led 8-0 after 30 mins, QLD hit back to lead 12-8 at HT before getting demolished in the 2nd half as the baby Blues ran away with it 36-12. Arggggh.

Anyway onto City v Country today, as well as the NBA playoffs and I have a massive AFL play for later today. I will post all my plays soon. Fade/Tail/Ignore....

[sando]

NBA Playoffs

2.5* Clippers -5 (-108 Sportsbet)
1.5* Warriors @ Nuggets Under 211 (-105 Pinnacle)
1* Bulls @ Nets Under 182 (-111 Pinnacle)

[Crowing Capers]

Crows/ bulldogs under 174.5 available on bet365
Only book with market open
Line was 190.5 last night kicking myself not lumping that...
Taking the unders on that cannot see it going over that. Been pissing down with rain all morning and expected most day apparently.
Liking kangaroos to cover -23 v lions also

[JM92]

NBA Playoffs

2.5* Clippers -5 (-108 Sportsbet)
1.5* Warriors @ Nuggets Under 211 (-105 Pinnacle)
1* Bulls @ Nets Under 182 (-111 Pinnacle)

Hey Sando nice to see you back here. on both the clipps and the under in the bulls/nets.as well. Also hope you win the Warriros Nuggets cause after seeing the beggining of this game I think im going to bet the over on the remaining of the games. unbelievably fast!

[sando]

UFC

3* Benson Henderson (Melendez) (-270 Pinnacle)
1.5* Cormier via KO (Mir) (-128 Sportsbet)

AFL

GWS @ Melbourne
2.5* Demons -14.5 (-109, $1.91Pinnacle)
1* Demons by 25+ (+140, $2.40 Sportsbet)

Brisbane @ North Melbourne
1.5* Over 205.5 (-109, $1.91 Bet 365)
1* Kangaroos -23.5 (Evens Pinnacle)


2 team Parlay

2.5*
Kangaroos M/L
Crows HT/FT
(-154, $1.65 Luxbet)

*My massive AFL play as mentioned earlier was going to be in the Adelaide/Western Bulldogs game, however it is raining non stop here in Adelaide and that has thrown a spanner in the works, so will be rethinking that one and evaluate the conditions later on today. Under 175 a great option if it keeps raining like this, however match is still 7 hours away and most O/U markets are temporarily suspended anyway.

NRL
(pending from yesterday - write up in above post)

2* City +6 (-101, $1.99 Pinnacle)
1* City m/l (+173, $2.73 Pinnacle)

[sando]

Old man Miller saved what should have been an easy under cash on the Nuggets game with a sweet last second lay up. Great start to the day.