1. 01-21-13 08:00 PM #4306
    Emerson
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    Quote Originally Posted by sando View Post
    First match is in 6.5 hours (Karlovic) and the other matches are a fair few hours after that one.
    Sando the Karlovic game i beleive is tomorrow 1800 not in 6.5 hours
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  2. 01-21-13 09:19 PM #4307
    pipita17
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    you are great capper and tipster and you have amazing prematch analysis but you struggle to choose your big plays. you see big markets and so many games and you decide to take 6 or 7 of them. thats wrong. choose 1 or 2 max and analyze it to the tiniest details.. sometime you will realise that 1 of 1 is better then 3 of 5. best of luck.
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  3. 01-21-13 09:25 PM #4308
    Catchn_Picks
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    Quote Originally Posted by pipita17 View Post
    you are great capper and tipster and you have amazing prematch analysis but you struggle to choose your big plays. you see big markets and so many games and you decide to take 6 or 7 of them. thats wrong. choose 1 or 2 max and analyze it to the tiniest details.. sometime you will realise that 1 of 1 is better then 3 of 5. best of luck.
    Fascinating post pipi...but so hard to do
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  4. 01-21-13 11:16 PM #4309
    thorny
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    Yeh we're human after all...sometimes it works for you (your big play fails and your smaller plays cover your backside), sometimes vice versa, sometimes all and sometimes none...

    At the end of the day, it's all a gamble. As long as you play percentage plays and keep probability on your side, you should do ok in the long run.
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  5. 01-21-13 11:42 PM #4310
    sando
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    4-2 today yet the two losses were larger bets so minimal profit. Disappointed in the ending to the Spurs/76'ers game. All credit to Philly for a great fight back however multiple missed f/t's by the Spurs down the stretch left the ATS cover 1 point short.

    Long season. Stay focused. Keep grinding.

    4-2 Tuesday in the NBA     +0.55 Units

    NBA 186-149-12     (+42.11 Units) 55.5%

    (NBA ATS/ML 132-111-9 YTD) 54.3%

    (NBA Totals 54-38-3 YTD) 58.7%

    YTD 46-44-1

    NBA prop bets YTD 5-4

    NBA Parlays YTD 1-1

    NBA Teaser's YTD 0-3

    NBA 2nd Half Bets YTD 0-1


    All time SBR Picks

    MMA/Boxing 8-10 (+12.86 Units)
    Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
    Rugby Sevens 28-24-1 (+2.27 Units)
    MLB 4-1 (+9.49 Units)
    Tennis - to be calculated (Down on the year, but still up units on overall record)

    **Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum

    ________________________________________ ________________________________________ _

    NBA Tuesday

    Orlando @ Detroit
    Pistons -4.5 (-108, $1.92 Sportsbet) 1x
    *I'm confident this line will move to -5 by closing.

    Philly @ Milwaukee
    Bucks -7 (-108, $1.92 Sportsbet) 1x
    *May add another unit later depending on injuries (mainly J-Rich) line movement and further analysis.


    NBA m/l Parlay

    Pistons m/l (-188)
    Bucks m/l (-294)
    +105, $2.05 Sportsbet 2x
    Points Awarded:

    thewhiteguy gave sando 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    humble gave sando 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  6. 01-22-13 12:02 AM #4311
    sando
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    Adding Tennis...

    Men

    Djokovic v Berdych
    Berdych +6 (-107, $1.93 Pinnacle) 2x
    *Feel very confident about this bet, don't have time for a write up, have to get ready for work. The only reason I'm only playing 2 units is because I am running fairly cold at the moment and therefore like to tighten up my bet/unit sizing. I do expect Djokovic to win but do not think it will be easy by any means. Berdych's big serve and accurate/booming forehand should be good for a set and/or at the very least a t/b or two. The big Czech is probably the best player in the world outside the big 4 (Ferrer the only challenger, currently better than JMDP).
    Points Awarded:

    humble gave sando 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  7. 01-22-13 12:11 AM #4312
    No coincidences
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    Good luck sando.
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  8. 01-22-13 12:23 AM #4313
    thewhiteguy
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    Going HUGE this play gl
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  9. 01-22-13 01:06 AM #4314
    GirlCanCapToo
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    Please, do not go big on this bet!!! Sando is a great capper, but sometimes you need to step out of the stats. Tennis, especially when it comes to the big guns early in tournaments, is largely psychological!! When playing against inferior opponents, the match is always in Federer/Djokovic/Murray/Nadal's hands. ESPN, SBR, random commentators all think that Djokovic is vulnerable after his scare. Most importantly though, Djokovic knows this as well. That was a HUGE wake up call for him.

    Look, I know that Berdman has a big game. I, too, wanted to go big on Berdman to win a set IF, and only IF, Djokovic had beat Wawrinka handily. After the way he played the last match, I expect Djokovic to come out with high intensity from point 1 in order to make a statement.

    Will Djokovic be tired?

    No!!!!! Don't even let this influence you for a second!! He has played 4 hr matches and beaten better opponents the very next day (see: clay court tournament vs Andy Murray). He's had a full day of rest. He will be fine physically!

    I don't want to convince you to not bet it entirely, but please don't go huge on it! The fact that Djokovic played poorly last match is not an advantage for Berdych bettors at all. I like the bet of "Yes" to a tiebreak in the match. It's too hard to protect against a 6-2 third set, if he is down 2 sets.
    Last edited by GirlCanCapToo; 01-22-13 at 01:13 AM.
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  10. 01-22-13 01:26 AM #4315
    thorny
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    Just a note, when Sando posts up a play it is locked in. He has already made the bet. So I guess you would only be convincing others.
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  11. 01-22-13 01:43 AM #4316
    Sacky
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    Quote Originally Posted by GirlCanCapToo View Post
    .....
    Cheers for the write up. Still deciding if I should take total sets over 3.5 units @ 1.93?

    Decision time
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  12. 01-22-13 02:27 AM #4317
    davopnz
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    i think joker smokes that fool birdshit here
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  13. 01-22-13 05:35 AM #4318
    pipita17
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    Quote Originally Posted by thorny View Post
    Yeh we're human after all...sometimes it works for you (your big play fails and your smaller plays cover your backside), sometimes vice versa, sometimes all and sometimes none...

    At the end of the day, it's all a gamble. As long as you play percentage plays and keep probability on your side, you should do ok in the long run.
    anybody who's in this for real and pays bills by betting will never tell you that its a gamble.
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  14. 01-22-13 07:13 AM #4319
    JM92
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    WOw... against you on Philly last night and will be against you again today. Don't you think 7 is just too much? I do, the Sixers know that this game could make or break their season, literally like this. I aint taking them on the ML but will certainly take 7 points. I hope Jrue and Turner do a good job on that backcourt.
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  15. 01-22-13 08:43 AM #4320
    Vinnie Paz
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    Did that last tennis pick win or lose?
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  16. 01-22-13 08:48 AM #4321
    Catchn_Picks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vinnie Paz View Post
    Did that last tennis pick win or lose?
    Berdych was +6 and lost by 10, I believe. He won the second set, but his losing sets were of the 6-1 variety...Joker just broke Berdych's serve too many times.
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  17. 01-22-13 11:12 AM #4322
    king_danilo92
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    what do you know? another loss by the wonderful Sando =)

    and thanks for banning me for a day! virginn
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  18. 01-22-13 11:28 AM #4323
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by thorny View Post
    Just a note, when Sando posts up a play it is locked in. He has already made the bet. So I guess you would only be convincing others.
    I thought that was pretty obvious since Sando was only paying 2 units and GirlCanCap was telling people not to go HUGE on this one.

    Thats just something I noted.
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  19. 01-22-13 11:49 AM #4324
    thewhiteguy
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    I wimped out and only went 1 extra unit thankfully.
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  20. 01-22-13 12:31 PM #4325
    sando
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    Quote Originally Posted by sando View Post
    NBA Tuesday

    Orlando @ Detroit
    Pistons -4.5 (-108, $1.92 Sportsbet) 1x
    *I'm confident this line will move to -5 by closing.

    Philly @ Milwaukee
    Bucks -7 (-108, $1.92 Sportsbet) 1x
    *May add another unit later depending on injuries (mainly J-Rich) line movement and further analysis.


    NBA m/l Parlay

    Pistons m/l (-188)
    Bucks m/l (-294)
    +105, $2.05 Sportsbet 2x





    Adding...

    Philly @ Milwaukee
    Under 196 (-109, $1.91 Pinnacle) 1x

    Bucks -7 (-108, $1.92 Sportsbet) 1x
    Bucks -6.5 (-108, $1.92 Pinnacle) 1x
    **Adding another 1 Unit to Bucks -6.5 (-108 Pinnacle) for a total of 2 units in play on the Bucks ATS.

    Orlando @ Detroit
    Pistons 1st Half -3 (+102, $2.02 Pinnacle) 1x
    Last edited by sando; 01-22-13 at 03:30 PM.
    Points Awarded:

    Crowing Capers gave sando 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    ak57 gave sando 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  21. 01-22-13 01:08 PM #4326
    selte
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    Marchenko v Phau
    Marchenko m/l (-112, $1.89 Sportsbet) 1x

    Phau retired 1 set and 0-3 down. Sucks I placed the bet with bet365...
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  22. 01-22-13 03:33 PM #4327
    sando
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    Quote Originally Posted by selte View Post
    Marchenko v Phau
    Marchenko m/l (-112, $1.89 Sportsbet) 1x

    Phau retired 1 set and 0-3 down. Sucks I placed the bet with bet365...
    Yeah that does suck, Marchenko was slaughtering him. Here is a list of books that will pay the m/l win if the 1st set is complete.

    http://www.tennisform.com/default.as...ournament=none
    Points Awarded:

    selte gave sando 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  23. 01-22-13 04:04 PM #4328
    mvanja
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    Quote Originally Posted by sando View Post
    Yeah that does suck, Marchenko was slaughtering him. Here is a list of books that will pay the m/l win if the 1st set is complete.

    http://www.tennisform.com/default.as...ournament=none
    I assume it goes both ways. Then if they pay a bet for a player that goes on to the next round, does it means that there is no push if ur bet is on the player that retires ?
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  24. 01-22-13 04:31 PM #4329
    Dmoneytx
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    Good luck tonight Sando!!! Might side a few of the nba picks and see what happens I gotta go teach, I'll ck in with ya later tonight. Adios.
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  25. 01-22-13 04:34 PM #4330
    Catchn_Picks
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    5 Dimes paid although they didn't have Germany point spread or totals lines available last night...maybe they did in the morning.

    Weird rule in Tennis tho...if you bet a prop total in a football game the player only has to appear in one play even if he doesn't touch the ball at all. If he goes out or gets hurt and you have the over...it is your loss.

    If you bet a player in a Tennis match and one point is complete you should be able to win or lose. The books make money by accepting bets, not returning money.

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  26. 01-22-13 05:08 PM #4331
    NYCWinner
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    Delete
    Last edited by NYCWinner; 01-22-13 at 05:43 PM.
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  27. 01-22-13 05:12 PM #4332
    Bostongambler
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    gl Sal Bando
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  28. 01-22-13 05:24 PM #4333
    mvanja
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYCWinner View Post
    Detroit Pistons are at -2.5 now. What's up? Someone got hurt ? Ppl really pounding Magic that hard?
    PINNY Detroit -4,5 @ -105
    maybe it was a HT line
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  29. 01-22-13 05:28 PM #4334
    Bostongambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYCWinner View Post
    Detroit Pistons are at -2.5 now. What's up? Someone got hurt ? Ppl really pounding Magic that hard?
    Where? Never, halftime wasn't/isn't even that low.
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  30. 01-22-13 05:29 PM #4335
    NYCWinner
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvanja View Post
    PINNY Detroit -4,5 @ -105
    maybe it was a HT line
    My mistake, was looking at H1 page. I apologize
    Last edited by NYCWinner; 01-22-13 at 05:42 PM.
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  31. 01-22-13 07:27 PM #4336
    The Cat 1979
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    Hey Sando. Ive been watching you and your work for sometime now. Just want to say thanks for the effort you put into this thread. Keep the dream alive aussie and keep hitting the winners. BOL!
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  32. 01-22-13 07:31 PM #4337
    SlickRick1382
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    Looks like we're on the same side and total on the Bucks / 76ers game. Good Luck Bud.

    Just didn't like the Pistons pick as I originally leaned Orlando but decided to leave it alone all together....

    Good Luck tonight
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  33. 01-22-13 09:20 PM #4338
    thewhiteguy
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    Cash it baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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  34. 01-22-13 09:31 PM #4339
    sando
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    Tennis

    AO (QF)

    Men

    Murray v Chardy
    Murray -2.5 Sets [or 3-0] (-164, $1.61 Pinnacle) 2x
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  35. 01-22-13 09:48 PM #4340
    Catchn_Picks
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    Damn...Serena injury may kill the Serena future bet.
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