[Sam_Hawkins]

bulls -6 @1.95 atm @bet365 ...just sayin'

[Jea]

William Hill has her at +100

[JayDelight729]

Agree with you on Serena and just made this play myself.

Kvitova's form is awful... could be an early exit from her.

Which brings down to Li Na and Azarenka as the only players who could beat Serena Williams if playing at top level. Hopefully, they are on the same side of the draw and knock each other out.

PS: 5Dimes has SW at +102 still.

[RatMAn2787]

Agree with you on the Bulls. How do you feel about Toronto -4.5 at home vs Sixers? Sixers ona B2b after playing an atrocious game at home vs Brooklyn last night. Now traveling to Tornoto. Really like Toronto in this spot.

[steveq]

although i only got into the tennis last night im plus 150 tyvm,looking forward to todays impressive to say the least

[steveq]

tailing good play

[tr4sh]

a question @sando. For future bets on one player to win, instead of risking 3x on the future bet, do you possibly see better value in simply risking 3x and units won on every Serena moneyline throughout the open? Maybe the value might not be slightly less than +100 of the future bet or so but it always gives an out in case of injuries/etc.

[sheps88]

Hit a parlay of 3 gms last night thanks Sando

[imzdeals]

a question @sando. For future bets on one player to win, instead of risking 3x on the future bet, do you possibly see better value in simply risking 3x and units won on every Serena moneyline throughout the open? Maybe the value might not be slightly less than +100 of the future bet or so but it always gives an out in case of injuries/etc.

I got the same question...I'm thinking serena ml on an open parlay in every round, or just risking same amount every round, may result in better than +100

[BigL28]

I got the same question...I'm thinking serena ml on an open parlay in every round, or just risking same amount every round, may result in better than +100

Let's do a little maths then. In decimal odds, for my brain's sake.
Serena has to play 7 games to win the tournament. She will typically play against 3 or 4 much weaker opponents that stands no chance except if she gets injured, 1 or 2 that can pull a miracle but are not very consistent (at AO, I'd say maybe Radwanska, Kvitova and a few others) and 1 or 2 more serious contenders (Azarenka, Na Li, Sharapova) that have a real chance but are still underdogs.

She will gets 1.1 (-1000) odds against the weak, 1.2 against the average (-500) and 1.4 against the elite (-250). Be aware I am generous with the odds, it is usually a bit lower on my book (bet365 UK).
If she plays 4 weaklings, 1 average and 2 elites, odds are 1.1^4 * 1.2 * 1.4^2 = 3.44 (+244).

Conclusion : IMHO you get a better payoff by playing game after game on Serena if you have decent odds in your book. If she barely finishes a game after getting injured, you can play it safely and keep your winning or edge on the opponent.

[ShotgunRua]

Let's do a little maths then. In decimal odds, for my brain's sake.
Serena has to play 7 games to win the tournament. She will typically play against 3 or 4 much weaker opponents that stands no chance except if she gets injured, 1 or 2 that can pull a miracle but are not very consistent (at AO, I'd say maybe Radwanska, Kvitova and a few others) and 1 or 2 more serious contenders (Azarenka, Na Li, Sharapova) that have a real chance but are still underdogs.

She will gets 1.1 (-1000) odds against the weak, 1.2 against the average (-500) and 1.4 against the elite (-250). Be aware I am generous with the odds, it is usually a bit lower on my book (bet365 UK).
If she plays 4 weaklings, 1 average and 2 elites, odds are 1.1^4 * 1.2 * 1.4^2 = 3.44 (+244).

Conclusion : IMHO you get a better payoff by playing game after game on Serena if you have decent odds in your book. If she barely finishes a game after getting injured, you can play it safely and keep your winning or edge on the opponent.

Excellent post, food for thought. As long as you keep a tally on how much money you have outstanding on Serena at all times, this is surely the way to go. Good thing with this is by the time of the final you can decide if you want to lump everything you won so far in or just play enough to come out at roughly +100 overall.

[SlickRick1382]

If anyone doesn't have the time to do the above (bet every match) and wants to make the same bet as Sando, 5 Dimes has the odds at +102

[BigL28]

Excellent post, food for thought. As long as you keep a tally on how much money you have outstanding on Serena at all times, this is surely the way to go. Good thing with this is by the time of the final you can decide if you want to lump everything you won so far in or just play enough to come out at roughly +100 overall.

For me, to maximize the value you would have to bet Serena 2-0 or the spread in the first 3 rounds (if she had a bad first tournament to begin the year I would wait the 2nd round to bet the spread, but since she seemed really sharp so far that shouldn't be a problem) and then play the ML till the end of the tournament. Maybe stopping before the final if she had to face an elite Sharapova or Azarenka. This way you can get a much better payoff, and it is not much more risky to bet Serena ATS vs Wickmayer/Kanepi/whoever than ML!

[blanco]

my book has serena at +175 to win. can that be right?

[sando]

I got the same question...I'm thinking serena ml on an open parlay in every round, or just risking same amount every round, may result in better than +100

a question @sando. For future bets on one player to win, instead of risking 3x on the future bet, do you possibly see better value in simply risking 3x and units won on every Serena moneyline throughout the open? Maybe the value might not be slightly less than +100 of the future bet or so but it always gives an out in case of injuries/etc.

Actually you would be surprised.

Here is the break down from the 2012 US Open (closest slam to the AO).

...Using $1000 stake and decimal odds (actual odds from Serena's matches)

Round 1. Defeats Vandeweghe $1000 x 1.017 = $1017
Round 2. Defeats Martinez Sanchez $1017 x $1.017 = $1034
Round 3. Defeats Makarova $1034 x 1.077 = $1114
Round 4. Defeats Havakchlova $1114 x $1.02 = $1136
Round 5 Defeats Ivanovic $1136 x $1.07 = $1215
Semi Final Defeats Errani $1215 x $1.07 = $1301
Final Defeats Azarenka $1301 x $1.23 = $1605 - equivalent to $1.60/-166 pre tournament future price.

It's a nice idea but does not work in reality. You don't get $1.10 on Serena in the early rounds, that would be the equivalent of free money, you will get $1.02 - $1.03 and there is no chance an all in m/l stake every round will out perform a pre tournament futures bet.

[Vinnie Paz]

Still working on NBA?

[ShotgunRua]

Actually you would be surprised.

Here is the break down from the 2012 US Open (closest slam to the AO).

...Using $1000 stake and decimal odds (actual odds from Serena's matches)

Round 1. Defeats Vandeweghe $1000 x 1.017 = $1017
Round 2. Defeats Martinez Sanchez $1017 x $1.017 = $1034
Round 3. Defeats Makarova $1034 x 1.077 = $1114
Round 4. Defeats Havakchlova $1114 x $1.02 = $1136
Round 5 Defeats Ivanovic $1136 x $1.07 = $1215
Semi Final Defeats Errani $1215 x $1.07 = $1301
Final Defeats Azarenka $1301 x $1.23 = $1605 - equivalent to $1.60/-166 pre tournament future price.

It's a nice idea but does not work in reality. You don't get $1.10 on Serena in the early rounds, that would be the equivalent of free money, you will get $1.02 - $1.03 and there is no chance an all in stake every round will out perform a pre tournament futures bet.

Ha ha glad I tailed the original bet you posted.

[sando]

Still working on NBA?

Yeah mate be another 1 - 1.5 hours. Only thing I can say for sure is there will be a play on Toronto ATS (the regulars won't be surprised at this one).

[BigL28]

Haha yeah I might have overestimated the odds. I didn't think Ivanovic or Errani would be priced at 1.07... She is a beast

[killersweet]

Yeah mate be another 1 - 1.5 hours. Only thing I can say for sure is there will be a play on Toronto ATS (the regulars won't be surprised at this one).

I like Toronto's Chances tonight.

[sando]

Just finishing work.

NBA - 1 hour away.

Tennis - 2-3 hours away.

[steveq]

when is serenamatches begin she has bye or 2 correct??

[steveq]

well then why not double triple whatever wager on the weaker of the players and ease up on the more elite??

[kilrathi]

Just finishing work.

NBA - 1 hour away.

Tennis - 2-3 hours away.

hopefully i can follow ur bets but if u stay in ur predicted timerange .. all will be good

[Sharp Snake]

well then why not double triple whatever wager on the weaker of the players and ease up on the more elite??

ive seen serena as high as -10000 in early rounds against the walkovers. are you willing to risk $20,000 to win $200 early on?

[thewhiteguy]

Just finishing work.

NBA - 1 hour away.

Tennis - 2-3 hours away.

Hey Sando, I just want to thank you for giving a general time frame for your picks. It really helps so much to not have to keep hitting the refresh button every 30 mins. I follow you religiously, so this is greatly appreciated. Once again, thanks for every thing you do, win or lose.

[tblues2005]

I will check back here soon. I am sure that there will be some more plays.

[steveq]

no good point

[sando]

NBA Wednesday

Milwaukee @ Chicago
Bulls -6 (-105, $1.95 Pinnacle) 2x
*Just another game? Think again. On Nov 26th 2012 the Bucks visited the United Centre and proceeded to get crushed on the back of an old school Rip Hamilton performance. With 14 and a bit minutes left in the game, Kirk Hinrich hit a 3 pointer to put the Bulls up by 27 before the entire team proceeded to go to sleep and the unsung trio of Illyasova, Udoh and Udrih dragged the Bucks back into the game and stole it by a point, without a doubt the low point of the Bulls season. Not only will the Bulls be ready for this game, but even if they are up by 20 with 6 minutes left, I can almost guarantee you Noah and Boozer will not be leaving the game. The Bulls are playing their best basketball of the season at the moment behind the ever productive and energetic Noah and a surprising (career) revival from Carlos Boozer, who like David West and David Lee is having a great season when perhaps people though his best was behind him. I like the well rested Bulls and their 3 game winning streak to crush the Bucks on the back 2 back. Unfinished business...

Philly @ Toronto
Raptors - 4 (-108, $1.92 IAS/Sportsbet) 2x
*Been waiting patiently for the -4. Also available at 5 Dimes, Bet 365 and Pinny. Otherwise recommend buy the hook or PYOL.

Atlanta @ Cleveland
Hawks -4 (-105, $1.95 Pinnacle) 1x
Hawks 1st Half -2 (-104, $1.96 Pinnacle) 0.5x
*Hawks lost three in a row. No taking this game lightly. Varejao will be sorely missed against the potent Hawks front court.

Phoenix @ Boston
Celtics -9 (-105, $1.95 Pinnacle) 1x
*Celtics finally at full strength. Stronger at every position than Phoenix (other than PF) and with Avery Bradley back in the team suddenly their D looks formidable again (coincidence)? Phoenix's jump shooters struggle to get open looks today and Rondo/Bradley make life hell for Dragic. Celtics won three in a row and the Suns have lost three in a row.

Dallas @ LA Clippers
Clippers -10 (-107, $1.93 Pinnacle) 1x
*Clippers average home winning margin = 19 points. Clippers 10-1 ATS last 11 games. Dallas

Bump

[Vinnie Paz]

Much respect!

[Raskal]

Really like the NBA picks mate looking forward to your tennis picks

[sando]

Much respect!

Really like the NBA picks mate looking forward to your tennis picks

Thanks boys.

Got some leans on a bunch of totals but not sure if I'm going to lock anything in, might just post my leans for now and see how they hold up.

Houston/NO Over 200.5
Denver/Orlando Over 204.5
LA/SA Over 214.5
Philly/Toronto Over 189
Utah/Charlotte Under 198
Clippers/Dallas Under 201

5 point NBA Teaser (that I'm playing tonight)

Celtics -4
Bulls -0.5
Raptors +0.5

+160 @ Pinnacle. Risking 1.5 units to win 2.4

NBA Totals Teaser (7 points)

Jazz/Bobcats Under 205.5 (Edit - 205.5, not 202.5)
Magic/Nuggets Over 197
Mavericks/Clippers Under 208.5

+150 @ Pinnacle. Risking 1unit to win 1.5.

[ShotgunRua]

Cheers Sando, legend.

[dsaewra]

5 point NBA Teaser (that I'm playing tonight)

Celtics -4
Bulls -0.5
Raptors +0.5

+160 @ Pinnacle. Risking 1.5 units to win 2.4

I think parlaying the moneyline gives you roughly the same payout.

5Dimes currently:

1/9/2013 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 704 Toronto Raptors* -190 vs Philadelphia 76ers 1/9/2013 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 708 Boston Celtics* -485 vs Phoenix Suns 1/9/2013 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 716 Chicago Bulls* -230 vs Milwaukee Bucks

Risking $1.50 To Win $2.46

[kilrathi]

thx sando for the picks... what are do u think of lakers +13.5?
i know they suck right now but i dont think they will lose that high again?

and even tho i know that u are in nba mode right now, are there some tennis tips available soon?

bol dude