[Bostongambler]

Ok found it. Making contact with official and failing to cooperate with nba investigation

[mvanja]

2

sando

31-17-3

64.58 %

L 1

187.0

+36.90

3 pending

WOOOW

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Guys, what are your thoughts on:

Spurs -8
Kings +3.5

[sando]

Tennis

*Boys if you wish to follow on some tennis plays and your book does not offer games lines, then you need a new account. If you live outside America and you are serious about sportsbetting then there is no excuse for not opening an account at Pinnacle. If you are American then your best option is probably 5 Dimes.

Pending Bets...

Soeda v Giraldo
Soeda m/l (+118, $2.18 Pinnacle) 1x - Loser (no-Go Soeda)

Paire v Lu
Paire m/l (+127, $2.27 Pinnacle) 1.5x - Pending


WTA Sydney

Errani v Kirilenko
Errani -3 (-115, $1.87 Sportingbet/Centrbet) 2x - Cash it. (6-1 6-1)!
*Love Errani in this spot. She is the female version of Ferrer. A hustler, a grinder, all court game, great temperament (yet she's Italian). If we had of been able to get on better odds I would have gone larger, but sadly I am not the only one who like Sara here and she has been crunched (-117 into -181).

Sara Errani has won 10 of last 11 when priced as Favourite (-200 to -101).

Sara Errani leads series 3-1

Keys v Zheng
Keys m/l (+105, $2.05 Luxbet) 2x
*Let's keep rolling with the golden girl. Beating Stosur (Zheng) is not that big a deal at the moment, besides you could say that Stosur actually beat herself. Keys being young and hence unpredicatble stops me from getting overexcited against a seasoned tour vet, however she is in the better form I would say and appears to be starting to live up to her potential.

WTA Hobart
Stevens v Halep
Stevens 2-0 (or -1.5 sets) (+125, $2.25 IAS/Sportsbet/Luxbet) 1x

ATP Auckland

Haase v Sjisling
Sjisling -3 (+102, $2.02 Pinnacle) 2x - Loser. (Won the match but lost the cover by 1 game, losing the first set killed us).

The battle for Amsterdam...

Robin Haase has lost 9 of last 10 overall.
Robin Haase has lost 4 of last 5 on Hard Court.
Robin Haase has lost 6 of last 7 at ATP level.
Robin Haase has lost 4 of last 5 when Opponent is a Fellow Countymen.
Robin Haase has lost 13 of last 14 when priced as Underdog (+100 to +200).
Igor Sijsling has won 5 of last 6 in Oceania.
Igor Sijsling has won 5 of last 6 when Opponent is a Fellow Countymen.


Monfils v Becker
Becker +2.5 (Evens, $2.00 Bet 365) 1x
*Becker playing great, underrated as a player. Monfils appears rusty from long injury layoff. Over looks ok if you can't play games lines.

Rochus v Querry
Querry 2-0 (or -1.5 sets) (-109, $1.91 IAS/Sportsbet) 1x
*David v Goliath match up. Fail to see how Rochus can challenge Sam on serve. Should be comfortable straight sets for Sam IMO, even if it is his first match of the season.

Falla v Zmelja
Over 22 (-104, $1.96 Pinnacle) 1.5x - Cancelled.
*Zmelja was favorite but he is recovering from fever and massive late steam crunched Falla into favoritism. Falla lost 4 in a row against big servers and 4 of last 5 as a favorite, yet he has a bunch of nice wins lately as a dog, hmmm...? Spent so much time on this game, I'm not sure why I am so interested in it, but to me the match could go either way, yet I can't really see either guy winning in straight sets. Should be tight and at the worst 1 tiebreak in straight sets match should cash/push.


ATP Sydney

Robrero v Millman
Millman +3 (-111, $1.89 Pinnacle) 1x - Cash it. (He actually won in straight sets)

[thorny]

Shotgun, if the fight draws out then I would have to agree that Bisping is in with a chance. I think Belfort will resort to grappling using Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Bisping hasn't won through submission in yonks. Apart from Evans he hasn't fought a big name. compared to Franklin, Couture, Liddell, Ortiz, Jones and Silva. He almost became the first fighter to get Jones to submit...that extra experience of fighting under pressure will prevail.

Like you said we'll see in 12 days. Been really trying to see your perspective but i still think Belfort has what it takes for a long fight.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Guys if anyone is looking to place bets on ATP/WTA Sydney for today's games, it is going to reach around 45 degrees here, so look to play someone who has proven stamina and endurance.

I wouldn't be surprised if the day games get cancelled because of he heat.

[mvanja]

Tennis

*Boys if you wish to follow on some tennis plays and your book does not offer games lines, then you need a new account. If you live outside America and you are serious about sportsbetting then there is no excuse for not opening an account at Pinnacle. If you are American then your best option is probably 5 Dimes.

WTA Sydney

Errani v Kirilenko
Errani -3 (-115, $1.87 Sportingbet/Centrbet) 2x
*Love Errani in this spot. She is the female version of Ferrer. A hustler, a grinder, all court game, great temperament (yet she's Italian). If we had of been able to get on better odds I would have gone larger, but sadly I am not the only one who like Sara here and she has been crunched (-117 into -181).

At bet365 U can find Errani -2,5 at 1,8

[Joab101]

ATP Auckland

Haase v Sjisling
Sjisling -3 (+102, $2.02 Pinnacle) 2x

The battle for Amsterdam...

Two fellow dutchmen play eachother at the Heinken Open..... love it!

[Byrone09]

Sando always keeping everyone hitting the refresh button. Can't tell you how many times I keep checking this thread for updates. The best part about his winning picks(asides from the money coming in) is that the s*it talkers stop posting.

5D currently has Errani at -3 -125 and Sijsling at -2.5 -135.

[JayDelight729]

Great thread.

I regularly cap tennis. Sitting at 27-20 on the season thus far... happy to see Sando on very similar plays regularly. He's a very good capper from what I've seen thus far.

I'm on Sijsling -1.5 games (-112) and have Errani in a parlay with S. Stephens for +158. Garrigues -1.5 games, Keys +3 and +150 ML. Also, Falla ML +100.

Key to tennis is jumping on lines early as they do move significantly from when posted (usually 24 to 36 hours prior to start time).

Good luck with your plays.

[horja1]

The best part about his winning picks(asides from the money coming in) is that the s*it talkers stop posting.

ignoring them and their posts always works great

[mvanja]

Guys, what are your thoughts on:

Spurs -8
Kings +3.5

Man I was thinking about SAS -8 but I've decided to let Sando do the "math" and wait for his picks. I don't know if U saw my post earlier, guy is 2nd in basketball capers contest with 31-17-3

[mvanja]

Sando a question if u have some time, lets say that we play Utah - 4, after 5 mins Utah is kicking ass and line moves to Dallas +8, do U buy D right away or wait... Do U usually hedge ur plays at all?

[Pacu]

Sando, sorry again for asking this kind of question. Are you goind to add some plays? I don't know if i can go to sleep. Damn, i'm addicted to this thread guys.

Ok, i see another one added.

[ShotgunRua]

Shotgun, if the fight draws out then I would have to agree that Bisping is in with a chance. I think Belfort will resort to grappling using Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Bisping hasn't won through submission in yonks. Apart from Evans he hasn't fought a big name. compared to Franklin, Couture, Liddell, Ortiz, Jones and Silva. He almost became the first fighter to get Jones to submit...that extra experience of fighting under pressure will prevail.

Like you said we'll see in 12 days. Been really trying to see your perspective but i still think Belfort has what it takes for a long fight.

Hey I had an absolutely terrible night last event so I'm certainly no authority, but I really can't see why Belfort is the favourite here at all.

My take is this;

MMA has 3 main areas of proficiency, standup, wrestling, and ground game.

Standup- Belfort has more power, however he is not anywhere near as fast as he used to be and even if he does catch Bisping there is a good chance he attempts to swarm and ends up gassing horribly like a middleweight Carwin. Of course, Vitor won't be as tentative as he was against Jones, however this crazy explosiveness and legendary handspeed is a memory in my opinion. Bisping will use his footwork and reach advantage to at least stay out of danger until Belfort slows down. Thing is, Bisping will be exactly the same fighter in round 4 as he is in round 1, Belfort really HAS to finish him in a 5 round fight or he's going to get outworked.

Wrestling- his is the most important aspect is it allows the superior wrestler to determine where they would like to fight. Even Chael Sonnen couldn't hold Bisping down, I see Bisping neutralising any attempts Vitor makes to get this to the ground, and Ithink he can scramble well enough on the ground to get to his feet easily enough. As I said earlier, the Jones armbar was a result of Jones wanting that top, dominant position, Bisping will not want to be on the ground with a Carlson Gracie Black Belt any longer than he needs to be. I also think Bisping may well press Belfort against the cage and make the first couple of rounds very boring at times, this is a very good strategy for the fighter with the superior cardio to wear his opponent down.

Ground- I simply don't think Bisping will allow it to go there, his footwork will keep him out of danger and he'll scramble away if he does end up on the ground. If Belfort gasses, Bisping may then shoot in for takedown etc but I think he'll lay it safe.


I think Belfort is stuck between a rock and a hard place here. He can blow his load and stand a chance of finishing Bisping early, or he can fight very conservatively, allowing Bisping to outpoint him and control the fight. All Bisping has to do early is survive, and personally I think he'll be able to do that comfortably.

Regarding age, Sando rightly mentioned the 2 guys are similar in age- however so are Shogun and Teixeira, in fact Tex is older. However most people are calling for Shogun to retire whilst Glover is being heralded as a young up and comer. Fighters have so long before they seriously decline, Randy Couture started late and was able to continue fighting past the age most guys retire, Belfort was fighting in 1997 as a kid- and the sad truth is if you watch a Belfort highlight that's where most of this exciting, explosive etc stuff comes from.

[Byrone09]

Anyone on the Spurs -8 tonight? Worried the Hornets will keep it closer with EG in the lineup. I might just go with Parker over20.5 -105. Any thoughts?

btw Sando has added a 3rd tennis play in case anyone missed it

Keys v Zheng
Keys m/l (+105, $2.05 Luxbet) 2x

(4 hours away)

correction. I believe that is the 5th pending play for today.

[sando]

NBA


OKC @ Washington
OKC -10 (-108, $1.92 IAS/Sportsbet) 1.5x

Dallas @ Utah
Jazz -4.5 (-108, $1.92 IAS/Sportsbet) 1.5x

Adding

Memphis @ Sacramento
Kings +4 (-105, $1.95 Pinnacle) 1x
*Kings are 10-7 at home and have won 4 in a row at home over solid teams in the Knicks, Warriors, Celtic's and Blazers. Evans is back tonight but I am not worried it will effect the team chemistry they (finally) appear to have developed as they have discovered what works - feed the post and play inside out through Cousins and I don't see them going away from that despite Memphis intimidating post players. Conley is a great perimeter defender but I think he'll have his hands full tonight against mighty mouse Thomas.

NBA Totals

Cleveland @ Chicago
Over 186 (Evens, $2.00 Pinacle) 1x

NBA Card complete

[Bostongambler]

gl Sal Bando

[ShotgunRua]

Cheers Sando, good luck all

[elPkay]

Thanks again for the NBA and Tennis picks.
Unfortunately I just came home, checked in the first two bets but the 3rd one just started and the only line I get is on Sportingbet
Sijsling ML -175. I guess it's not worth it anymore with these odds

[OZnBa Fan]

Centrebet ate offering $2.05 for Knicks at -7.5 or you can get -6.5 for $1.92 which I rekon is good value any 1 else think Knicks win quite easy today?

[davopnz]

dam haase smoking

[elPkay]

Rondo is out and the Celtics aren't playing very well this season. Don't think they can step up enough to keep it close.
I put 2u on Knicks -7 and will watch the live lines during the game to maybe hedge depending on the performance and the given odds

[Byrone09]

Man bad news for Laker fans. The Lakers have all 3 bigs injured (Howard-torn labrum, Gasol-concussion, Hill-hip injury) with the Rockets and Spurs back to back on the road starting tomorrow. Not looking good...

[davopnz]

i tail your tennis pick for the first time and get buried by haase lol(not blaming you) thats just my luck

[thorny]

Shotgun, fair call. You make good points there. Sounds like your bet is based on fading Belfort more than it is backing Bisping. I just don't rate Belfort as highly...oh well.

Looks like Soeda is struggling to get into this game.

[thorny]

i tail your tennis pick for the first time and get buried by haase lol(not blaming you) thats just my luck

Game isn't over yet, seen signs late in 1st set that the game can still swing...finger's crossed

[Byrone09]

We still have a shot with Sijsling. Soeda though, that is likely over...

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Shotgun, fair call. You make good points there. Sounds like your bet is based on fading Belfort more than it is backing Bisping. I just don't rate Belfort as highly...oh well.

Looks like Soeda is struggling to get into this game.

Soeda just got Teppanyakied!

[sando]

Horrible start to the day with no-Go Soeda. He goes straight in the fade book. A gutless performance.

Added...

ATP Sydney

Robrero v Millman
Millman +3 (-111, $1.89 Pinnacle) 1x

ATP Aukland

Monfils v Becker
Becker +2.5 (Evens, $2.00 Bet 365) 1x
*Becker playing great, underrated as a player. Monfils appears rusty from long injury layoff. Over looks ok if you can't play games lines.

Rochus v Querry
Querry 2-0 (or -1.5 sets) (-109, $1.91 IAS/Sportsbet) 1x
*David v Goliath match up. Fail to see how Rochus can challenge Sam on serve. Should be comfortable straight sets for Sam IMO, even if it is his first match of the season.

Falla v Zmelja
Over 22 (-104, $1.96 Pinnacle) 1.5x
*Zmelja was favorite but he is recovering from fever and massive late steam crunched Falla into favoritism. Falla lost 4 in a row against big servers and 4 of last 5 as a favorite, yet he has a bunch of nice wins lately as a dog, hmmm...? Spent so much time on this game, I'm not sure why I am so interested in it, but to me the match could go either way, yet I can't really see either guy winning in straight sets. Should be tight and at the worst 1 tiebreak in straight sets match should cash/push.

WTA Hobart

Stevens v Halep
Stevens 2-0 (or -1.5 sets) (+125, $2.25 IAS/Sportsbet/Luxbet) 1x

[mvanja]

Sijsling showing some life

[pellumb341]

Sijsling showing some life

that mothefuka can't shoot with his back hand

[Byrone09]

dang we need 4 straight games from Sijsling...

3 straight...

damn.

[Byrone09]

Rondo is out and the Celtics aren't playing very well this season. Don't think they can step up enough to keep it close.
I put 2u on Knicks -7 and will watch the live lines during the game to maybe hedge depending on the performance and the given odds

Like it! I'm in for a unit. Wish I could hedge. Damn US books!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Kuznetsova +4.5 worth a hit?

I liked Date-krumm +6 too but didn't pull the trigger - she's looking good at the moment.