[tblues2005]

Looks like a 2-0 night tonight take that diamo!! Good job Sando!!

[gopolks]

Well done, cause of your picks, i took the grizz and the thunder in a multi, half full time double. Thanks!

[thorny]

Following you on the Thunder game, I think Ibaka will shut down Duncan.

I'm gonna pass on the Bulls game, just have a sneaky feeling on that one, plus Bulls are playing reasonably well.

I went Rockets +10 last night for 2 units, seems to be a big spread. Knicks should win but don't think they will by over 7 points.

Good work Sando! Should have got on the Bulls, but at least the Rockets came good for me!

[sando]

Well I wont say we didn't need a day like this, my confidence has been taking a hit lately, so hopefully we can go on a nice run now...


Long season. Stay focused. Keep grinding.


2-0 Today in the NBA +3.76 Units

NBA YTD 115-85-8 (+39.59 Units) 57.5%

(NBA ATS/ML 86-60-5 YTD) 58.9%

(NBA totals 29-25-3 YTD) 53.7%

Unofficial NBA prop bets YTD 2-2

All time SBR Picks

Tennis 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units)
Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
Rugby Sevens 28-24-1 (+2.27 Units)
MMA 5-0 (+22.21 Units)
MLB 4-1 (+9.49 Units) *See spreadsheet

**Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

NBA Monday

Chicago @ Memphis

Grizzlies -6 (-105 Pinnacle) 2x WINNER

SA @ OKC

Thunder -5 (-107 Pinnacle) 2x WINNER
Spurs without Ginobli, Leonard and Jakson for this game, OKC with a full list available. No lack of motivation for the Thunder against their main WCF rival whom they have already lost to this year by 2 points in SA.

2-0 and +4 units.. thanks for the fades!!!

Sando you beast!!!

[thorny]

Guys even though it was a very good day for us, please don't get too carried away....

Please feel for daimoshokage, who had a bad day today with 0-2 and -4.0 units.

HA!

[Celtics08]

Nice Sandoo!! Thanks man

[No coincidences]

sando's the fvcking man.

[thewhiteguy]

Very nice sando!!! You da man !

[sando]

No coin
TRD (Sick call Rockets m/l)
TGM!
Celtics08
Thorny
gopolks
Joab101
BrewersMKE
Maggi (Welcome. Denmark - beautiful country)
tblues2005
Xfranchise
Catchn_Picks
fitguy67
USfunca
Schoomakie
mvanja
Mr XYZ
TBsp75
GrubyBob
ShotgunRua!
AK57
chekdeeznutz (great handle haha)
Byrone09
Crowing Capers
dmitean
rentongfb
...and anyone else I missed (Sorry)



Thanks everyone for the continued support. Sorry if I haven't responded to some questions. TBH - when I have a bad or an average day I wont read any posts other than to update my record as I don't wont to see the negativity and have it affect my thinking as I move on to the next day's card. Anyway I am a big confidence guy, when I started the thread I was doing really well in Tennis and then NBA and no suprise my confidence was sky high at the time. One 2-0 day doesn't mean much, however if we can have another great day tomorrow then hopefully it will be the start of another great run...?

[matt#1]

Cashed your Grizzlies pick. Cheers Sando

[TBsp75]

you doing great sando. keep it up!
sports betting is similar to mlb hitters playing through entire season. sometimes you're on a hitting streak, sometimes in a slump. most important thing to be a great hitter is to forget the past (no matter doing good or not), be physically prepared, adjust the small things, concentrate on your next at-bat and believe in all the work you put in will pay off eventually.

[tblues2005]

2-0 for Sando here. Poor Daimo and he is crying big tears for fading Sando on tonight's games.

Let's see if he will fade him tomorrow also!! LOL. Where are you at now Daimo??? That's right you went 0-2 tonight by fading!

[SlickRick1382]

Congrats bro ... continue with a positive outlook and I'm sure you'll return to those winning ways ...

[usfunca]

Awesome day. Hope it's a pivot point. Keep up the solid work, sando!

[dioforce]

I'll be honest Sando I liked you more when I believed you to be more stoic. Good luck. I'm playing the averages at this point so I'll stick around, probably. (Thank you to the two people who get my entendre; life sucks up here amirite?)

[easysaid]

GSW -7.5 looks like a gift tommorow, what you reckon sando?

[h3da]

Love Hawks against Washington -6!

[ShotgunRua]

Result Sando!! Keep up the hard work mate!

[ender749]

YESSSSS

[sando]

Love Hawks against Washington -6!

GSW -7.5 looks like a gift tommorow, what you reckon sando?

Boys I've just started working on tomorrow's card, as of yet don't have an opinion on either of those games as I am totally focused on 1 particular game. Looking like possibly my biggest play of the year tomorrow. I'm just going through the routine and covering some angles, trying to talk myself out of it, etc, otherwise will have a big play posted within an hour so we can get the early line before it moves (which it will). As soon as I can have a look at those games, I will give an opinion, in the meantime will get back to everyone ASAP with my play.

[davopnz]

[Bbr]

Sand with the BIG play!!! Look forward to seeing it.
Was all over thunder today. Easy winner. Nice day btw sando.

[thorny]

Looking like possibly my biggest play of the year tomorrow.

OOO can't wait.

[sando]

NBA Tuesday

Toronto @ Cleveland
Cav's -4.5 (-104 Pinnacle) 3x

Unofficial play - Cav's 1st half -2.5 (-107 Pinnacle) 1x (Unofficial plays are not counted on my record)*Was leaning towards a 3.5x play, but after much deliberation I cannot pull the trigger. Been going back and forth for half an hour trying to judge the value in this pick and I think 3x is correct in this situation.

Analysis

Toronto - The Raptors have been playing great basketball the last 2 games AT HOME without 2 of their "big 3" in Lowry and Bargnani, no doubt in response to the supposed comments in the Italian media from Bargnani calling them "the worst team in the NBA". Also there is the bizzare angle of teams raising their level of play when the big guns go down. This is usually attributed to the 2nd and 3rd string players getting a temporary increase in minutes and hence they have the chance to show the coaches what they can offer as they battle each other for minutes in the future. The direct result of this is increased intensity and hustle which combined with the all too common (albeit subtle) psychological let down of the opposition team (who focus their game plans around and scrutinize the scouting reports of the opponents stars) can catch them totally off guard. Add in the build up of pressure from getting hammered in the media, social networks and on message boards like SBR and it is not actually that suprising in hindsight that Toronto has performed so well the last 2 games (although we found out the hard way with the Dallas & Houston picks). This type of situation where a weak team is playing well above their expected median level rarely lasts as with each game, the guys that are getting minutes become more comfortable and whatever 'edge' they were playing with tends to regress in a snowball type effect over time (the possible exceptions being strong teams who are well drilled/well coached of which the Raptors are not). Regardless their recent 2 game winning streak has come at home and the fact remains that Toronto is a terrible 1-14 on the road, with the sole win coming over a month ago by 2 points against an Indiana team that was so dismal they still lost the game despite the Raptors only scoring 5 points in the 4th quarter! Before Toronto's recent 3 game home stand (2 wins and a loss to the Nets) they came off a 5 game road trip where they went 0-5 with an average losing margin of 15.8 points and they got absolutely crushed the last 3 games before heading home. Overall Toronto is on an 11 game road losing streak.

Cleveland - The Cav's get a massive boost in this game with Dion Waiters returning from injury for the first time he will partner Irving in the back court since Nov 18. This potentially adds 15.2 ppg for the Cav's and combined with Irving and his 22.5 ppg creates a young, athletic and dangerous back court for the Cav's, although it is highly likely Waiters will come off the bench as in his absence CJ Miles has been tearing it up averaging 22.5 points and 17 of 33 from 3-point range since being inserted into the starting lineup four games ago. It is unlikely coach Scott will want to mess around with Miles confidence ATM and that leaves Waiters (who will be on limited minutes anyway) to bolster a bench which will probably be Cleveland's biggest advantage over an injury hit Raptors list that is not overly deep to begin with. While Derozan will no doubt move to the back court to partner Calderon (who is currently Toronto's biggest asset) creating a great 1-2 punch with the ability to almost match the Cav's (Irving & Miles) offensively, but doing so will further stretch the Raptor's depth in the forwards as he is their starting SF. It is in the back court however where I expect Cleveland to thoroughly dominate the the Raptors, with Waiters coming off the bench alongside "Booby" Gibson who is always reliable for a handful of points and assists when given minutes, and either Pargo (who is capable of exploding for 20+) and/or Sloan who has proven that he can both score and dish the ball when given minutes. I expect a full 48 minutes relentless attack from the Cav's guards especially with Waiters coming off the bench, Miles red hot and bombing 3's and well Calderon has been playing great offensively but defensively he has about as much chance of troubling Irving as I do of getting decapitated by a frisbee when I take my Rottweiler to the park.

Clevelands record both at home and overall are nothing to get excited about, but let's just briefly look at their games over the last week - they had an emphatic home win over the Lakers and then went on the road and dominated the Pacers @ Indiana for a half before collapsing in the third quarter. They then went home to face the Bucks who raced out to a big early lead with Ellis just flat out balling and yet the Cav's fought back to take the lead in the third and were in the game right up to the end against a Bucks team riding a three game win streak, before eventually going down by 4. Last game they travelled to MSG and Irving went ballistic in the big apple and they completely stuck it to the red hot Knicks for 4 quarters before again going down by 1 point and that was only because Varejao missed a f/t at the death.

So to recap in the last week the Cav's have faced the Lakers, Bucks, Pacers and Knicks, all playoff teams and they have been there or there-about in every game right up to the death. You will not find a lack of effort in a Byron Scott coached team, that is a guarantee. Regardless of all the effort and hard work they are still on a 3 game losing streak and now they are back home, no doubt angry, angry over the Knicks loss and they have an injury hit Raptors team coming to town off the emotional high of their last two HOME games. The Cav's are basically at full strength with their only injury concern being Casspi and even he is a chance to suit up for this game. Most importantly they have their dynamic duo of Irving and Waiters both playing and a legitimate X-factor in Miles who has been redhot. Did I mention he has sunk 17 of 33 3-pointers in the last 4 games? Could this be a let down spot for the Raptors? Maybe? They could be looking ahead to the next night when they will head back home and play the back 2 back against Detroit in a game which is of course very winnable for them, however I dont care if it is or isnt, because the Cav's should win this and win it convincingly. Do not be suprised with a double digit final margin (despite the Raptor's ability to keep games close at the death this season).

Oh yeah lastly Anderson Varejao is having a career year leading the league in rebounds by a rediculous 2 whole boards over Zack Randolph at 14.6 rpg. This fluffy headed energiser bunny is scoring, rebounding, dishing the ball like a god damn p/g, I can see him causing some serious problems for young Valanciunas with his hustle and intensity. Seriously if he had of played like this when Lebron was in town, then maybe...


Utah @ Brooklyn
Nets -4.5 (-108 IAS/Sportsbet) 1.5x

Boston @ Chicago
Celtics +1.5 (-108 IAS/Sportsbet) 1.5x

Atlanta @ Atlanta
Hawks -7 (-105 Pinnacle) 1x

The Hawks coming off an embarassing belting at home from the hot Warriors will be unlikely to overlook this game. The Wizzards on the other hand are hit hard by injuries at the moment and lost their last game to the "real" Miami Heat by 30 points. This is a list already lacking in talent/depth and with Wall still out and Nene (who has looked sharp in recent games) likely to sit this one out again, it's hard to see how they can keep pace with a Hawks team who is 6-3 on the road with an average winning margin of 9.8 points and their smallest margin in a road win being 6 points. The Wizards are 2-8 at home and despite being banged up it is unlikely the Hawks will take them lightly after being pushed to OT in Atlanta earlier in the season followed by a 9 point win the next time they visited Philip's arena. Unfortunately due to my procrastination have missed the earlier -6.5, but still like the -7 for a unit.

12/16/12	Nene	C	Foot	Questionable for Dec. 18 vs. Atlanta
12/12/12	A.J. Price	PG	Hand	Out until at least late December
12/10/12	John Wall	PG	Knee	Out until at least late December
12/05/12	Trevor Ariza	SG	Calf	Out until at least late December
12/15/12	Trevor Booker	PF	Knee	Out until at least late December

Atlanta has a far superior ATS record on the road (6-3) as opposed to at home (3-8-1), whilst Washington has a worse ATS record at home (4-5-1) than they do on the road (6-4-1), despite consistently being given plenty of points as a home dog. From a betting point of view this game is better for us that Hawks are travelling to Washington.

NBA Total of the day

Indiana @ Milwaukee
Over 186.5 (-107 Pinnacle) 1x

*New rules. Obviously I have been struggling with my totals lately (after such a great start to the season) so from now on I will play 1 total per day max, if and only if I can actually find something that looks solid.

[davopnz]

cavs and biggest play of the year doesn't work for me, those kunts always choke when i bet on them. might take first half line

[hawley]

Gl boss.

Looking forward to Calderon trying to guard Irving.

[MakinItHappen]

Good work Sando.

I will be creating an Australian Open 2013 contest fairly soon, I hope you join bro.

[jrom]

Will Lowry and Bargnani be playing against the cavs, if not I would expect Irving to have a big game.

[pipita17]

played nets and cavs + spurs over...can you please provide any info regarding pacers game? they are in very good form at the moment.

[aussieH]

Already moved to 1.80 at tab. Can still get 1.92 at sports bet


Tab has also switched of their old site and it is killing me. Anyone else experiencing this. God knows how much they spent to develop such a crap website

[hawley]

Will Lowry and Bargnani be playing against the cavs, if not I would expect Irving to have a big game.

neither will play.

[thorny]

Will Lowry and Bargnani be playing against the cavs, if not I would expect Irving to have a big game.

arent they both out? i really like cavs -4.5.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Already moved to 1.80 at tab. Can still get 1.92 at sports bet


Tab has also switched of their old site and it is killing me. Anyone else experiencing this. God knows how much they spent to develop such a crap website

Their new site is absolutely rubbish - chews way too much processor power - my fan goes up a click every time I open their site.

[kenz]

				W/L	Div
12/03	Denver	L 110-113	Away	4-14	0-4
12/05	Sacramento	L 100-107	Away	4-15	0-4
12/07	Utah	L 99-131	Away	4-16	0-4
12/09	LA Clippers	L 83-102	Away	4-17	0-4
12/10	Portland	L 74-92	Away	4-18	0-4

Above is Toronto's last road trip. After that they beat Dallas and Houston at home.

Cavs has 3 wins at home this season Washington, Philadelphia and Lakers.

Lets wait for the write-up.