1. 12-10-12 07:23 PM #1751
    Celtics08
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    Bad start with over Houston, good tempo but bad %


    Nice tempo so far, cmon cmon!
    Last edited by Celtics08; 12-10-12 at 07:45 PM.
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  2. 12-10-12 07:54 PM #1752
    That Guy
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    Great to check in and see you killing it mate!
    GL
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  3. 12-10-12 08:06 PM #1753
    sando
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    Quote Originally Posted by That Guy View Post
    Great to check in and see you killing it mate!
    GL
    Mr. Gold, how bizzare. I was just thinking about you today and wondering how you are doing, hope all is well? We're gonna have a great crew once NRL comes around with yourself, TGM, TRD and me. I can't wait...
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  4. 12-10-12 08:18 PM #1754
    Celtics08
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    Tomorrow I hope BIG over 201 in Detroit-Denver
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  5. 12-10-12 08:25 PM #1755
    Byrone09
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    Unbelievably bad 4th quarter...
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  6. 12-10-12 08:26 PM #1756
    Romerowned
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    Bad beat on your warriors/bobcats over total. After scoring 93 points in the first 3 quarters, the warriors put up 11 points in the fourth. lol.
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  7. 12-10-12 08:30 PM #1757
    sando
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    A 61 point quarter and a 69 point quarter and yet can't hit a game total of 202.
    Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 08-08-14 at 11:25 AM.
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  8. 12-10-12 08:32 PM #1758
    mikmik
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    Man that was tough this game was rigged
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  9. 12-10-12 08:37 PM #1759
    RetardStrength
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    This is why I despise the NBA sometimes. Unlucky sando.

    Keep hammering away
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  10. 12-10-12 10:10 PM #1760
    sando
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    Quote Originally Posted by sando View Post
    Un-official NBA prop bet

    Lamarcus Aldridge -7.5 pts and rbs v. Andrea Bargnani

    Sportingbet/Centrebet -140, $1.71 I'm risking 2x to win approximately 1.4 Units

    Just a simple spot bet looking to take advantage of the fact that Batum (16.4 pts, 5.8 rbs) is out, and Matthews (16 pts, 3.2 rbs) is most likely out as well. That is a lot of points and rebounds to cover and I have no doubt "the real Lamarcus Aldridge" will show up today. I actually think Toronto might win this game S/U, but regardless I expect LMA to put the team on his back as he has done constantly over the last 18 months and really put in work today.

    *If you find similar LMA props at your book, for example LMA over ____ points, then I would play the over for no more than over 23 points max at -115 ish.
    Well anyone who followed on this, I'd say we're looking pretty good as even though I would NEVER wish an injury on another for the sake of making money, it has regardless happened and Bargnani has left the game with an elbow injury. Regardless of whether he returns, he will have a lot of scoring/rebounding to do to cover the differential which already sits at 14. (LMA pts/rbs - 18) (Bargnani pts/rbs - 4).

    Points Awarded:

    Tim Gerry Mander gave sando 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  11. 12-10-12 10:12 PM #1761
    thorny
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    i wanted to get on Aldridge bet, but they didnt offer it on Sportsbet nor Bet365...so annoying
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  12. 12-10-12 10:22 PM #1762
    amarius87
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    thanks sando for the heat n spurs over picks today!
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  13. 12-10-12 11:11 PM #1763
    thorny
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    The Bargnani injury must have affected the Raptors...
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  14. 12-10-12 11:19 PM #1764
    Tim Gerry Mander
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    Nice picks again today Sando.

    Unlicky with GSW total - that should have sailed wayyyyy over.

    Looks like TOR are gone - did the injuries affect them that much?
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  15. 12-10-12 11:31 PM #1765
    thorny
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    Well done for the day Sando...a positive day!

    GSW total should have gone over. I thought 2nd Quarter was bad, the 4th was worse!
    Ah well, that's betting for you.
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  16. 12-10-12 11:48 PM #1766
    tblues2005
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    Sando once in a while you have some bad luck and it just happens somehow. A flat out ugly 4th quarter too. I know you will get them back later this week.
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  17. 12-11-12 12:07 AM #1767
    sando
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    Stay focused. Long season. Keep grinding.

    2-2 Today in the NBA +1.05 Units

    NBA YTD 100-69-8 (+39.87 Units) 59.2%


    (NBA ATS/ML 74-50-5 YTD) 59.7%

    (NBA totals 26-19-3 YTD) 57.8%

    1-0 on the Lamarcus Aldridge prop bet. (-7.5 pts/rbs v Bargnani)     +1.42 Units
    Unofficial prop bets YTD 2-1


    All time SBR Picks

    Tennis 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units)
    Rugby Union 7-7(+2.97 Units)
    Rugby Sevens 28-24-1 (+2.27 Units)
    MMA 3-0     (+20.23 Units)
    MLB 4-1 (+9.49 Units) *See spreadsheet

    **    Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum.
    Points Awarded:

    Pacu gave sando 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  18. 12-11-12 02:07 AM #1768
    Bbr
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    I was on the under in charlotte lol. Whacky game. The game after getting dominated, bobcats often play out unders....
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  19. 12-11-12 04:14 AM #1769
    radostin.dimi
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    Good call on the Miami
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  20. 12-11-12 04:50 AM #1770
    pipita17
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    followed miami..great call.tonight on lakers -4.5 ? or its a "sucidal" bet..
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  21. 12-11-12 07:03 AM #1771
    elPkay
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    Quote Originally Posted by sando View Post
    My unit range is 1-5. So far this season from memory we haven't had any picks over 3x and only 4-5 of those. As the season progresses we will no doubt start finding some 4x and possibly even 5x picks as more data is gathered and trends appear, and spot betting opportunities arise, etc. I assign units to each pick based on the percieved value they represent from a betting point of view. Not on the percieved strength of the pick. This difference is very important. We are talking someone who wants to win over the course of an NBA season (percieved value) vs. someone who just wants to win today (percieved strength). I do not care about winning or losing today, I care about finding +EV picks, knowing that to do so means I will have a very profitable season. Someone who randomly tails picks here and there and has lost more than they have won, I'm sorry, however it's not my problem. I'm in this for the long haul. Who knows, I may end up going 0-4 today. That doesn't mean the picks were bad or I don't have a clue about the NBA (as Daimoshokage loves to tell everyone), as it's all part of a far larger picture.

    If you want anymore info regarding my style and methods, then go back a few pages where I did a MASSIVE write-up explaining step by step exactly how I make my selections.

    Thanks alot for the detailed answer.
    I played Online Poker for a long time (actual winning player up to NL$100) so I know about long term winnings/expectations and EV but I just started betting this NBA season and I gotta learn alot.
    Not easy since I don't have that much time to donate but I'm mostly tailing you and GM to build a bankroll.
    I'm thankful for all the high quality information everyone in here gets (for free!) and even if I didn't start tailing you from day 1, I'm up 16 units this season.

    /edit:

    Of course I'm looking forward to roll with all of your bets to make sure I don't miss any value
    Last edited by elPkay; 12-11-12 at 07:08 AM.
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  22. 12-11-12 08:05 AM #1772
    Catchn_Picks
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    Quote Originally Posted by elPkay View Post
    Thanks alot for the detailed answer.
    I played Online Poker for a long time (actual winning player up to NL$100) so I know about long term winnings/expectations and EV but I just started betting this NBA season and I gotta learn alot.
    Not easy since I don't have that much time to donate but I'm mostly tailing you and GM to build a bankroll.
    I'm thankful for all the high quality information everyone in here gets (for free!) and even if I didn't start tailing you from day 1, I'm up 16 units this season.

    /edit:

    Of course I'm looking forward to roll with all of your bets to make sure I don't miss any value
    Yea, elPkay, poker is a good learning experience for sports betting. Poker players get very good at percentage analysis and making a decision and then letting the game play out. Coming back to sports betting has been much easier because you recognize probability and bad beats as just a part of the game.
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  23. 12-11-12 08:05 AM #1773
    Catchn_Picks
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    Good luck tonight sando and all.
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  24. 12-11-12 10:31 AM #1774
    Celtics08
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    Detroit - Denver Over 201

    Nets - Knicks Knicks -2

    what do you think about this picks Sando?
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  25. 12-11-12 04:07 PM #1775
    shimeon40
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    no good..nets going to win.
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  26. 12-11-12 04:08 PM #1776
    sando
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    NBA


    Denver @ Detroit
    Pistons +5 (-102 Pinnacle) 2x


    LA Clippers @ Chicago
    Clippers -2.5 (-110 Pinnacle) 1.5x


    NBA Total of the Day


    NY @ Brooklyn
    Under 195 (-103 Pinnacle) 1.5x

    No More Plays Today.
    Last edited by sando; 12-11-12 at 04:28 PM.
    Points Awarded:

    GrubyBob gave sando 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Celtics08 gave sando 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Crowing Capers gave sando 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    ak57 gave sando 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  27. 12-11-12 04:13 PM #1777
    sando
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    Quote Originally Posted by Celtics08 View Post
    Detroit - Denver Over 201

    Nets - Knicks Knicks -2

    what do you think about this picks Sando?
    Yeah I like them both, Knicks out to -3.5 and the Pistons are always scoring over 100+ at home.
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  28. 12-11-12 04:14 PM #1778
    TiredPro
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    Do you have an opinion of RLM and is it something you consider in your handicapping ?? Been watching your plays from afar. Thanks for your efforts.
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  29. 12-11-12 04:16 PM #1779
    Byrone09
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    Nuggets line is 204 already
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  30. 12-11-12 04:16 PM #1780
    h3da
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    Damn u took piston and i took nuggets! GL
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  31. 12-11-12 04:33 PM #1781
    davopnz
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    any thoughts on hornets? was leaning towards a hornets/nugs ml parlay
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  32. 12-11-12 04:41 PM #1782
    usfunca
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    GL tonight sando.
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  33. 12-11-12 08:19 PM #1783
    yankeefan1024
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    Sando, bet -3?
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  34. 12-11-12 08:46 PM #1784
    vasilli07
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    Quote Originally Posted by yankeefan1024 View Post
    Sando, bet -3?
    Is there really any big difference between -2.5 or -3? If you are taking at -3, you will just push if Clippers win by 3.
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  35. 12-11-12 09:10 PM #1785
    wguan2
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    Quote Originally Posted by vasilli07 View Post
    Is there really any big difference between -2.5 or -3? If you are taking at -3, you will just push if Clippers win by 3.
    Clearly you haven't gambled enough if you don't think a half point is a big difference. Go ask the guys who took Knicks -3 and the ones who managed to get Knicks -2.5
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