[SlickRick1382]

Love the Utah / Denver total myself and just checked, line moved 1.5 points in our favor there.

[SlickRick1382]

I would look at buying when the cap is on a 0.5, like the examples below:

Buying 0.5 up on the fave at the spread (say from -2.5 to -2)
Buying 0.5 up on the dog at the spread (say from +3.5 to +4)

I'd rather get a push than a loss

I would only do so around key numbers. If you look at the amount of times you would of won / lost a game due to that and compare it to the extra vig you're paying you'll find that it's going to dip into your bankroll and not a winning proposition.

[MCOZONE]

I would only do so around key numbers. If you look at the amount of times you would of won / lost a game due to that and compare it to the extra vig you're paying you'll find that it's going to dip into your bankroll and not a winning proposition.

Key numbers being 2, 3 and 4 in basketball, yes?

[usfunca]

sando, once again the amount of quality information you put out in this thread is unbelievable. Thanks for the picks. I'm tailing like a slave. Keep up the great work.

[davopnz]

i really like the look of a simple bulls/spurs parlay...i also think that nets game goes over, those teams will want to put on a crowd pleaser

[SlickRick1382]

Key numbers being 2, 3 and 4 in basketball, yes?

2 and 7 are the most prominent in the NBA with 7 being one of the most frequent.

The 6-8 range gets a lot of play on push frequencies.

[sando]

NBA

Lots of games I like today, but nothing that I really like so gonna keep the units down on today's picks. Really liked the Clippers at -11 (opening line) to do the same thing to the Hornets that the Nug's did last night, however no longer interested at the current line of -12.5 as could see the Hornets bench possibly hustling late in the 4th against a big lead and stealing the back door cover. Was very tempted to play the Under in the Nets/Knicks game as we have two surprisingly good defences (Nets arguably leagues best) battling it out for NY supremacy but seeing as they have never played hard to get a gauge on the tempo this game will be played at. Also quite interested in Bucks and Wizards with the points but have missed the best lines on both games and don't normally like to play a side and total in the same game.

NY @ Brooklyn

Nets +1.5 (-105 Pinnacle) 1.5x
Without doubt "the game" of the year so far. Was meant to be the season opener but has probably worked out better as now we are in a position to see that both teams are quite good and at a similar level talent wise. For me this pick is all about match ups. I love scrutinising individual match ups in handicapping NBA and I quite like how the Nets match up with the Knickerbockers in this one.
As Schoomakie mentions home court advantage to the Nets is in doubt as the Knicks faithful will have no problems travelling to Brooklyn, however Nets 6-1 home record cannot be completely discounted. Their is always some value in the familiarity of your home dressing rooms, and knowing the building and the court and the subsequent positive mental state it tends to create in players. Their is no doubt that the Nets are aware that they are the underdogs in this one regardless of their being little actually separating them at the books, and I like this Nets team playing with that underdog mentality against their high profile neighbours. Ok matchups - Wallace could be the key here, he is an excellent defensive player and the ideal man to harras Carmello an make life difficult for him, they are roughly the same size and Wallace is no doubt every bit as physical and as strong as Carmello. Also Lopez's impressive mid range game should drag Chandler away from the Post possible creating more space for D-Will's penetration, of course if Chandler chooses to stay home on Lopez and patrol the Post then the big fella will probably be getting plenty of wide open looks from 15-18'. Felton will have his hands full with the bigger, stronger and equally as quick D-Will on both ends of the floor and Prigioni would likely be even worse off and Johnson will abuse Kidd in Iso-Joe mode if the Knicks allow that to happen, far more likely Brewer or JR Smith spending time on Johnson. Knicks with the deeper bench but it's more from 1-3 especially with Brooks not delivering off the bench for the Nets this year, however I would see a clear advantage to the Nets at 4-5, with Carmello playing 4 and some older guys on the bench, the Nets big men can definitely do some damage , and if it wasn't for Chandlers outstanding post defence I would generally expect the Knicks to get abused by the combo of Lopez, Humphries, Blatche and Evans. Reggie in particular loves the physical stuff and can bang with Chandler or Wallace and generally make life difficult for them (as is his style) if either starts heating up. Of course 'Sheed will no doubt try and bring Reggie to the perimeter to take away his ferocious offensive rebounding but I'm inclined to think the nets will just rotate and Reggie will stay I. The post doing what he does best. Knicks love to bomb threes and obviously have a clear advantage their however the Nets have plenty of capable three shooters themselves and unlike the Knicks will not struggle as much if their three's aren't dropping. Nets an excellent defensive team this year and I see them as a great match up against the Knicks high powered offence. For me Crash Wallace is the key and if he can keep Carmello quiet and cause his general disruption to the smooth NY offence I can see a nice victory to the Nets here in what is the beginning of a (hopefully) great rivalry.

Milwaukee @ Chicago

Bucks +4.5 (-108 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Decided to run with this anyway even though we missed the +5, mainly because Bulls only 3-3 at home this year with the winning margins being 6,6 and 7 points. Bulls playing low scoring grinding games (as usual). Bucks just lost at home to the Bulls recently in a game they were until late in the 4th so I expect them to be prepared today.


Portland @ Detroit

Pistons +1.5 (-113 Pinnacle) 1x
*Line opened at Pistons -1 and Blazers love has moved the line in our favor. Recommended buying the hook if you have to in case Detroit loses in a tight one although I expect them to win straight up here. Aussies that can't "buy hooks", you lads need to be opening Sportingbet accounts, they now have "pick your own line" for NBA and are the best of all Aussie books for NBA (I know I have accounts at every Australian book)

**Pistons play better Defence, they are tough at home, Portland with the worst bench in the NBA, LMA not 100% and whilst he is expected to play he clearly has a sore back and if he has to spend any time on Monroe tonight it will not be fun for him. Pistons to dominate in the post tonight.




NBA Totals

Chicago @ Milwaukee

Under 191.5 (-109 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Denver @ Utah

Under 200 (-107 Pinnacle) 1x

Denver will look to push the pace and Utah will look to slow the game, yet the Nug's are coming off the back2back and being a Utah home game I expect the Jazz to control the pace. These two traditional rivals always play each other hard. Have this total at 195-196.

THATS IT FOR TODAY

Good luck everyone.

(May add some further analysis depending on time)

[Chief Wahoo]

Was hoping Memphis would be one of his plays and want to unload on them as Cavs have to be demoralized w last two losses and I believe third game in four nights (haven't had time to look up), but really know nothing about Memphis.

[sando]

Was hoping Memphis would be one of his plays and want to unload on them as Cavs have to be demoralized w last two losses and I believe third game in four nights (haven't had time to look up), but really know nothing about Memphis.

Actually was very keen on the Griz tonight, I just hate double digit lines and if you look at Cav's last three games (without Irving) they all have been Very close with a win over Philly and then two away losses by 4 to Orlando and then only 2 to the Heat. Could have/Should have won both those away games as well. Avoid.

[therealdealau]

Let's collect some cash today mate!

[Byrone09]

Nuggets/Jazz o/u is down to 197.5 now

[Byrone09]

Does the Bucks pick factor in that Jennings might not play because of his ankle?

[SlickRick1382]

Does the Bucks pick factor in that Jennings might not play because of his ankle?

Jennings was confirmed a starter although i doubt hes anywhere near 100%

[sando]

Does the Bucks pick factor in that Jennings might not play because of his ankle?

Jennings participated in the most recent Bucks shoot-a-round and pulled up fine. He says he is playing today 100% so no I have not factored that into the pick as I expect him to play.

[therealdealau]

Jennings is playing pal.

[Byrone09]

cool! good luck on the picks tonight!

Anyone know if there is a limit on giving points? It seems I can only give 2 points?

[TC Woods]

NCAAB

I know very little about college basketball, however a friend of mine specialises in it and he assures me that Notre Dame will destroy Chicago State by 40 points tonight at home. The line is currently Notre Dame -31.5 at Pinny and Sportingbet and while the line seems massive for a basketball game I trust his judgement and I'm going to chuck 1 unit on the play. Just thought I'd share the info incase anyone else is interested, but please be aware this is not an official pick of mine, just sharing the love from someone who definitely knows the game.

Time for ND to get their foot off the brake and onto the GAS

[head4thehills]

Time for ND to get their foot off the brake and onto the GAS

brake is off...up to 33 now....hopefully Sando will share future college bb picks from his college picking friend

[Byrone09]

And Notre Dame comes up short of the spread. Damn. It was looking so good at the half...

Wow the Bobcats are getting absolutely smoked early by the Thunder!

[grim259]

Good call on the pistons. I would've tailed you on that, but I couldn't bring myself to bet on my own team. Tough luck on the ND call, but it was only a bet for fun.

Looking forward to the other picks, though I missed the bucks +4 before heading out. Wish I would've taken that.

[ak57]

and tonight's gonna be a good night

[sando]

I'm gonna go ahead and call the Jazz/Nuggets Under a loss already, but regardless we still went 4-1 today for a great day. (about f****ng time). Will do a post game analysis for every game later.

3 dogs today All winners S/U. Thanks Vegas but you can keep your damn points...

[usfunca]

I'm gonna go ahead and call the Jazz/Nuggets Under a loss already, but regardless we still went 4-1 today for a great day. (about f****ng time). Will do a post game analysis for every game later.

3 dogs today All winners S/U. Thanks Vegas but you can keep your damn points...

Great night. The only one I didn't sprinkle the ML was Milwaukee. Oh well, can't win em all! Thanks for the winners.

[sando]

Oh yeah sorry for the crappy Notre Dame pick boys. Won't be doing that again.

[usfunca]

Oh yeah sorry for the crappy Notre Dame pick boys. Won't be doing that again.

FWIW, they almost had it covered. They were covering really late in the game.

[fitguy67]

I'd rather get a push than a loss

That's the rule of thumb i always follow when tailing a quote and wondering about how to handle the half-point difference between the line and what u want...

and, as u point out so well, having other books to shop at can be golden. I personally find WilliamHill and SportsInteraction to always be good for a few "stale" or "shaded" line life-savers a week...
(Canbet less often, but still worth having in the stable for the odd "sore thumb"). WillHill and SIA both have quik moneybooker turnarounds and no charges ever so u don't have to keep them funded...just blast enough money in for the play u want and u can withdraw it if it hits/redeposit next time u want a play there.

[therealdealau]

sando, what a day...the god

[Catchn_Picks]

You are Da man

[sando]

4-1 today in the NBA +4.05 Units

NBA YTD 68-40-6 (+34.66 Units) 63%

(NBA ATS/ML 51-29-4 YTD) 63.75%

(NBA totals 17-11-2 YTD) 60.7%


All time SBR Picks
Tennis 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units)
Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
MLB 4-1
MMA 2-0

*Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum.


BIG PLAY COMING OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...

[shimeon40]

So your an aussie sando..you must be scaring the crap out of IAS/Centrebet etc..your pretty good..they might start limiting your bet size soon at this rate..hilarious your an aussie and teaching a few americans how to cap NBA..where the hec is IWYM..evaporated?

[shimeon40]

I still think your LTA..you pick better than LTA but crave the following like LTA..your a bit of a drama queen and love your parasites to defend you.

[Untied]

[TC Woods]

I still think your LTA..you pick better than LTA but crave the following like LTA..your a bit of a drama queen and love your parasites to defend you.

\

and yer a jerk off.. surprised you haven't made it to the biggest losers list

but you will

[brumbies]

lol clippers lost as dd favs! Was chris paul back with the hornets?

[shimeon40]

TCWoods you bum not surprised to see you here tailing...your the jerk giving out dud locks..your a disgrace and have no credibility to be defaming anyone..what u should be doing TCWoods is something donating to charity as penalty for the shit tips you've given on this forum....TCWoods paying out on people..what a joke...