[Eagles27]

Early release NBA Play...

NY @ San Antonio

Over 192 (-116 Pinnacle) 1.5x
*This line is already moving against us and will probably settle around 194.5 by game time IMO. Do not reccomend taking any worse than O193 at -110 but personally am going to pay a tad more juice for the O192 @ Pinnacle.


Two dynamic offenses stacked with three point bombers could lead to a shoot out. No obvious match-up to stop Carmello (there hardly ever is), although I expect Leonard to put in an honest effort. Felton is an under-rated defender but probably not quick enough to stop Parker's penetration. Chandler a solid P&R defender but coach Pop smart enough to adjust to any teams strengths and game plan accordingly. Plenty of X-factor types who can light up the score board, specifically JR Smith and Manu Ginboli but also Green, Novak, Captain Jack, and even Patty Mills (if they ever play him). All those guys are capable of "going off".

**Further Analysis to be added later

I think you are forgetting that the Spurs have one of the best defenses in the league and the Knicks (statistically right now) have one of the best D's in the league. What do you invision the final score being? Just curious and looking for some additional insight. I'll probably stay away from the total on this one and will pick a side, but still want to hear your input on how you factored the stellar D in this match-up.

[tr4sh]

Great pick, line is now 196.5. Win or lose, great pick

[sando]

Ok well normally on the average 7-8 game nba card, I would rarely find more than 3-4 games I like ATS and usually no more than a couple of total plays, yet today I actually have a leans on avery game and every total, first I'll share my leans and then we'll get to the plays

Leans:
Nets -4.5 (Assuming Rondo doesn't suit up, although once the news drops you would want to be quick with your trigger finger to avoid the line possibly moving further against you. No Rondo or Bradley to guard D-Will could mean bad news for the C's, although on the flip side, no Wallace to guard the stretch men in Bass and Green is also a problem for the Nets. I consider Rondo so important to the the Celtic's that if he was playing I would instantly be leaning C's +4.5)

Nuggets -3 (Massive line movement in this game, the Nug's actually opened at +2 at those brave sportsbooks that threw a line up straight after the Clips game (Betfair, PartyBets and a couple of others), however have now stabilised at -3. I had been eyeing off this game for a day or two and was dissapointed that the Heat lost to the Clip's as it potentially affects this game. Will save further analysis for my pick.

Spurs -5 I am a massive fan of what they are doing in NY and have been riding the knicker-bocker wagon however Spurs at home is just about the toughest cover in basketball and even those optimistic types that are expecting NY to win 55-60 games this year must then realise that means losing 22-27 games. If their not losing to a healthy and in form San Antonio team who only lost 5 games at home last year then when exactly do you see them loosing? (Many might say the day A'mare puts his uniform back on...) NY's bench is quite nice, but San Antonio's bench is just flat out rediculous, I mean some of their 3rd string guys are starting on weaker teams (Mills?). Most importantly and pleasantly surprising as a fan (of Duncan - I hate the Spurs) is old man Duncan is flat out balling this season and making some of the young studs that have been guarding him look ridiculous with his vast aresenal of head fakes and post moves; so many easy buckets for him this year, he seems to have told father time to get ******.

Totals - I must be crazy to be leaning on the over in every game today considering what appears to be a significant under trend this early in the season (as often happens while teams adjust to new players, coaches, offesnsive systems, blah, blah)

NY/SA Over 192 -( See above)

Denver/Miami - Over 202 (See write-up)

Boston/Nets - Over 191

These are just leans, working on the plays now (1 more total and 1 ats pick) - half hour...

[sando]

I think you are forgetting that the Spurs have one of the best defenses in the league and the Knicks (statistically right now) have one of the best D's in the league. What do you invision the final score being? Just curious and looking for some additional insight. I'll probably stay away from the total on this one and will pick a side, but still want to hear your input on how you factored the stellar D in this match-up.

No I did not forget, I have watched every Knicks game this season and have been amazed at their defensive intensity, and while I admit SA is a solid defensive unit, I am not overly impressed by SA's actual defenders, but more by their strict adherence to Pop's defensive schemes and their ability to switch rotations freely and cover on help D as needed. They are a smart defensive team but I would not go as far as to say they are elite. Anyway all of this is moot, I will add to the write-up mate and try and answer your questions, however first I want to get my picks out so people can grab best available lines. Also have you noticed that the line has jumped from 192 to 196?

[Eagles27]

Ok well normally on the average 7-8 game nba card, I would rarely find more than 3-4 games I like ATS and usually no more than a couple of total plays, yet today I actually have a leans on avery game and every total, first I'll share my leans and then we'll get to the plays

Leans:
Nets -4.5 (Assuming Rondo doesn't suit up, although once the news drops you would want to be quick with your trigger finger to avoid the line possibly moving further against you. No Rondo or Bradley to guard D-Will could mean bad news for the C's, although on the flip side, no Wallace to guard the stretch men in Bass and Green is also a problem for the Nets. I consider Rondo so important to the the Celtic's that if he was playing I would instantly be leaning C's +4.5)

Nuggets -3 (Massive line movement in this game, the Nug's actually opened at +2 at those brave sportsbooks that threw a line up straight after the Clips game (Betfair, PartyBets and a couple of others), however have now stabilised at -3. I had been eyeing off this game for a day or two and was dissapointed that the Heat lost to the Clip's as it potentially affects this game. Will save further analysis for my pick.

Spurs -5 I am a massive fan of what they are doing in NY and have been riding the knicker-bocker wagon however Spurs at home is just about the toughest cover in basketball and even those optimistic types that are expecting NY to win 55-60 games this year must then realise that means losing 22-27 games. If their not losing to a healthy and in form San Antonio team who only lost 5 games at home last year then when exactly do you see them loosing? (Many might say the day A'mare puts his uniform back on...) NY's bench is quite nice, but San Antonio's bench is just flat out rediculous, I mean some of their 3rd string guys are starting on weaker teams (Mills?). Most importantly and pleasantly surprising as a fan (of Duncan - I hate the Spurs) is old man Duncan is flat out balling this season and making some of the young studs that have been guarding him look ridiculous with his vast aresenal of head fakes and post moves; so many easy buckets for him this year, he seems to have told father time to get ******.

Totals - I must be crazy to be leaning on the over in every game today considering what appears to be a significant under trend this early in the season (as often happens while teams adjust to new players, coaches, offesnsive systems, blah, blah)

NY/SA Over 192 -( See above)

Denver/Miami - Over 202 (See write-up)

Boston/Nets - Over 191

These are just leans, working on the plays now (1 more total and 1 ats pick) - half hour...

Dang, man you are leaning on all three favs covering tonight? how often does that happen, trends would indicate that at least one of the favs doesn't cover tonight. I think Nuggs cover easy, and Boston im having a hard time buying into, so im thinking knicks in a close game? One thing worth mentioning about Boston, Rondo (even if out, will be replaced by Barbosa who was very impressive last night and is essentially the reason the Celts were able to come away with a win).

[sando]

Dang, man you are leaning on all three favs covering tonight? how often does that happen, trends would indicate that at least one of the favs doesn't cover tonight. I think Nuggs cover easy, and Boston im having a hard time buying into, so im thinking knicks in a close game? One thing worth mentioning about Boston, Rondo (even if out, will be replaced by Barbosa who was very impressive last night and is essentially the reason the Celts were able to come away with a win).

Agree 100% mate, the Brazillian blur was great lass night, but that was 1 game, how do you replace a walking triple double? And yes I am leaning on all three favorites tonight, but if you look through some of my NBA plays you will see that is a rarity, I love a good dog both ATS and even the m/l, it is just the way it works out tonight, and as you were saying "trends would indicate that at least one of the favs doesn't cover tonight", well hypothetically if I played all 3 picks and went 2-1 would have to be happy with that right?

[Eagles27]

No I did not forget, I have watched every Knicks game this season and have been amazed at their defensive intensity, and while I admit SA is a solid defensive unit, I am not overly impressed by SA's actual defenders, but more by their strict adherence to Pop's defensive schemes and their ability to switch rotations freely and cover on help D as needed. They are a smart defensive team but I would not go as far as to say they are elite. Anyway all of this is moot, I will add to the write-up mate and try and answer your questions, however first I want to get my picks out so people can grab best available lines. Also have you noticed that the line has jumped from 192 to 196?

I did, up to 196.5 with my local now, funny how much 4.5 points makes a difference. At 192 I would have leaned towards the over, however at 196+ im thinking under. I just cant see both teams having a defensive let down tonight. But nonetheless, i think I am just going to pick a side and stay away from the O/U. Im thinking Knicks at +6 losing a close game

[Eagles27]

Agree 100% mate, the Brazillian blur was great lass night, but that was 1 game, how do you replace a walking triple double? And yes I am leaning on all three favorites tonight, but if you look through some of my NBA plays you will see that is a rarity, I love a good dog both ATS and even the m/l, it is just the way it works out tonight, and as you were saying "trends would indicate that at least one of the favs doesn't cover tonight", well hypothetically if I played all 3 picks and went 2-1 would have to be happy with that right?

That is very good logic, Im probably going to go Nets (-4), Knicks (+6), and Denver (-3) for my picks tonight. If the nets get blown out again, I am adding them to my do not bet or fade list lol (I already have the Lakers, Pacers and Miami on that list).

Either way, thanks for the responses. Always nice to read additional outside input (whether you win or lose, im all for in depth analysis). Best of luck tonight.

[sando]

NBA

Miami @ Denver

Nuggets -3 (-114 Pinnacle) 1.5x
*You may have to buy the hook as most lines appear to be -3.5 but can still get -3 for -110 to -115 at Pinnacle, 5Dimes, Bodog, NordicBet, DafaBet, 12Bet, 188Bet

Over 202 (-108 Pinnacle) 1x

There are so many angles in this game it's hard to know where to start so going to begin by throwing some cold hard facts out there.

Home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games between the two
Nuggets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss
Nuggets are 30-10 ATS in their last 40 vs. Eastern Conference
Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. (Nuggets are a very tough cover at the Pepsi Centre - always have been)
Heat are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games.
Heat are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 games in Denver
Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 v Western Conference
Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games

The Heat are 2-3 on the road this year.
The Nuggets are 2-0 at home this year.

The Nuggets have won 5 straight at home to the Heat by average winning margin of 20.9 points

Nug's two home games have been beat downs over The Jazz and the Pistons, Miami on the other hand have been average over their last three road games (lucky to get away with the win in Houston). Coming off a back to back and having already been on the road for a week I don't think they'll appreciate the 5200' elevation after playing at sea level last night. For those that think the whole elevation factor of playing in Denver is a fallacy, tell me why is there a large "Welcome to Denver" sign with the elevation prominently displayed right above the away teams entrance to the Pepsi centre (psychological warfare)? Also tell me why does Karl (especially against teams that are possibly fatigued, i.e coming off a back 2 back) stress at every time out, "run, run, run". They no doubt will try and wear Miami down tonight, but the Heat are also very dangerous in a run n' gun style shoot out with Lebron and D-wade the best 1-2 open court punch in the NBA. Of course D-Wade has been well below his lofty standards, because of foot injury or whatever, he is not playing anywhere his best and they will need him to guard the lightning quick Lawson. Also Iggy is just about the best guy in the NBA to guard Lebron and maybe slow him down? Nuggets match up really well against the heat, Bosh will have his hands full with the Manimals intensity and the Nug's seriously pushed the Heat in Miami leading the game with 14 seconds left. That game was a 135 point shoot-out and while I don't expect anywhere near that number, do you seriously think 1 of these teams won't get close to 110 points? Lets roll with the Nug's -3 and the over 202.

[jayec]

Bought the hook, -3@120. Good luck

[SiMON2g]

good luck today mate.

[ShotgunRua]

Thanks Sando, good luck!

[usfunca]

I was one of the sheep that hopped on Miami early. I'll probably end up eating it, but I'm tailing you on the Over plays. GL tonight!

[therealdealau]

good luck sando heres to hopefully another + money day

[Byrone09]

Small card tonight! I'm on board! Taking the Nets -5. No Rondo today.

I also parlay'ed $20 on the 3 favorites and 3 overs for the hell of it.

[dioforce]

Small card tonight! I'm on board! Taking the Nets -5. No Rondo today.

I also parlay'ed $20 on the 3 favorites and 3 overs for the hell of it.

Parlay? Good call! That's a great way to make money.

[Byrone09]

Parlay? Good call! That's a great way to make money.

Yeah I know. It was more for fun. If I lose it's $20 off my Nets win. If I win, its $900 more beer money.

[coogs08]

knicks are looking really good...huge comeback to get the win for themselves and for us! OVER 193 wins!!!

[kamikazekanesh]

great call on the over, saved me a burial today 0-5 small bets 1-0 big bet on the over

[sando]

Well we got off to a nice start in the Knicks game but un-fortunately the Nuggets game didn't pan out the way I expected by any means, i lost count of how many wide open shots Brewer missed, but I won't get started on that game, instead we'll move forward and get stuck into tomorrow's big NBA card. I will update my record a bit later boys, at work at the moment and studying the NBA card so we can get back into the thick of the action.

Shogun & Southmadejd - Guys sorry I haven't responded to your questions about the UFC 154 card, I am a massive boxing/MMA fan and usually reserve my largest wagers for the fights however since the NBA season had started I have had precious little spare time to focus on other sports, there is just so much work to be done early in the season. Definitely not the right person to be giving MMA advice ATM.

[sando]

NBA

Houston @ Portland

Blazers -2 (-108 Pinnacle) 2.5x

Utah @ Philly

Jazz m/l (+104 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Many people (myself included) are expecting the sixers to take the next step this year. Well after the debacle against Detroit where the whole team sucked (Lavoy Allen excluded) the only steps they took were backwards. With the departure of Iggy, Evan Turner was finally given the chance to be "the man" on this team, and yet if anything he has regressed. While he remains a solid defender and an excellent rebounder his jump shot is virtually non existent at the moment and his confidence appears way down. He has scored 8 or less in his last 3 games going 6-21 from the field. Jrue Holiday playing great for the Sixers as is Mo Williams has bee playing great since moving to the Jazz this season, however this game has one major area that stands out, and this is not about the guards. Utah is a big team, not height wise like the Lakers, just big, as in big boys. From 3 through 5 Marvin Williams, Favors, Jefferson and Milsap are all bigger stronger bodies than their Philly counter parts, and with the form Millsap and Jefferson are in it's no wonder Corbin has them feeding the post constantly. Bynum would of course help significantly in just this sort of game, however without him, you have Turner, Young, Wright, Hawes and Allen battling the bigger, stronger and highly skilled Utah big men. This is a significant mismatch and I expect the Jazz to constantly work to exploit it. If they manage to get the Philly "bigs" in early foul trouble then thing could get even worse.
Orlando @ Detroit

Pistons -5 (-105 Pinnacle) 1.5x
Over 184 (-119 Pinnacle) 1x
*Buy down half a point if possible from the 184.5 (just to be safe).
You have to ask yourself, why are the Pistons -5 in this spot. Joe public wil prob load up on Magic here, could be a burial coming up? Detroit is not playing well this season by any means, however their break-out win over Philly on the road was brutal. Big game's from Monroe, Maxiell, Prince and Knight and great to see Maggette getting some minutes. Pistons might be 1-8 but they have been far more competitive than their record suggests, in fact they could have taken their previous game against OKC losing by 2 at home. If you compare the two rosters, Detroit actually have decent young talent and solid role players surrounding Monroe, whereas the Orlando roster is just not a pretty sight. I predicted pre season that Orlando would fall big time this year. Affalo was a nice pick up and big baby is playing great, but at the end of the day they just don't have the talent to get the job done on a regular basis. Call me crazy but I actually like the Pistons to get up for their first home win and pound the Magic here possibly by double digits? Orlando has been playing some low scoring games however they do give up just over 90 points a game on the road and the Pistons are giving up 99 points a game at home. Neither one of these teams playing much D at the moment. I have this total at 188 and can imagine a scoreline of around 99-89 Pistons.

Phoenix @ LA Lakers

Lakers -9 (-105 Pinnacle) 1x
Lakers love playing against the Suns, it always seems to bring the best out of Kobe, in fact some of his career defining moments have come at the expense of the Suns. It's a shame Nash isn't playing, would have made this encounter very interesting, however from a Lakers point of view this is probably not a bad thing as Nash's prodigy Dragic, easily Phoenix's most dangerous player would run rings around Nash and also Blake defensively, the kid is deceptively fast, and Morris is a far better match-up defensively although doesn't bring much from an offensive stand point, but hey this is the Lakers, there is never a shortage of offensive options. Howard squares off against his old number two from their Magic days in Gortat, who has come along way since he broke out of Howard's shadow however the Suns are not a big team and the gameplan may be to get Howard plenty of touches early and deep and try and put some early fouls on Gortat leaving the Suns rather vulnerable in the post, although Scola is a very solid defender and his match-up with Pau will as always be interesting. Artest great match-up on Beasley defensively, if he's in one of those moods he could take Beasley right out of the game (doesn't take much). Shannon Brown been on fire lately and will be keen to stick it to te Lakers who stupidly didn't want to pay the kid more than 2.5M -wtf? Kobe may have to put in some work at the defensive end this game if Brown is on early. Surely the Lakers will be keen to welcome D'antoni with a big win over his former team although apparently Mike won't be coaching game time until Sunday v the Rockets.

[ShotgunRua]

Cheers for the picks sando

[ParlayBricker]

Had 3 of those 4 games highlighted already , locking them in after seeing your on them, great job so far this year buddy , love the in depth analysis really helps me out when im stuck on a side. BOL tonight

[H-Diesel503]

A bad blazers team beating Houston twice? They beat Houston @HOU in OT earlier. You dont think HOU will be on a mission to get that game back?

[AllLogicBets]

A bad blazers team beating Houston twice? They beat Houston @HOU in OT earlier. You dont think HOU will be on a mission to get that game back?

A 'bad' Blazers team? Aldridge, Batum, and Lillard are all absolute studs. The Blazers have more talent then Houston which is why he is taking them. However, the Blazers are not playing well on the defensive end so far which is not surprising with coach Stotts.

[AllLogicBets]

I will say though.....the thing that is scary about the Blazers is they live and die by the 3 and they have zero bench. Houston is definitely the deeper team, but I'd take the Blazers 5 over Houston's 5. Two very tough teams to predict with Houston relying on Harden being 'on' and the Blazers relying on their 3 ball being on. I am still contemplating this game.

[sando]

NBA YTD 41-22-4 (+23.93 Units) 65%


(NBA ATS/ML 31-16-2 YTD) 65.9%

(NBA totals 10-6-2 YTD) 62.5%


Tennis YTD 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units) 55.3%

[sando]

Great start to the day with a winner in the Argentina v Wales Rugby match. Hopefully this form carries over into the basketball.


More Rugby plays to come today (after the NBA)

[ShotgunRua]

Great start to the day with a winner in the Argentina v Wales Rugby match. Hopefully this form carries over into the basketball.



More Rugby plays to come today (after the NBA)

Yep, I haven't watched rugby in years, but tailed you on this anyway because you're a prophet. Cheers

[Catchn_Picks]

Great handicapping sir...thank you for sharing

[H-Diesel503]

A 'bad' Blazers team? Aldridge, Batum, and Lillard are all absolute studs. The Blazers have more talent then Houston which is why he is taking them. However, the Blazers are not playing well on the defensive end so far which is not surprising with coach Stotts.

Yes this is a horrible Blazers team. I am from Portland (ie. the 503 area code in my user name) and this is bottom of the barrel talent on this team.

LMA is a stud, but beyond that there isnt much. Yes Lilliard is a great talent but as you said the bench has nearly zero production.

I would lean HOU tonight....

[sando]

Boys I've found a great prop bet if anyone is interested.

Conley +2.5 points/assists v. Felton (-125 Sportingbet) 1.5x
(Will not officially be counted on the YTD)

I'm sure you can find this prop at many sportsbooks, you can even get +3.5 in the SBR sportsbook if you want to play for fun with your betpoints.

Statistically (2012/13) -

Felton ppg- 15.8
assists - 6.5
total - 22.3

Conley ppg - 13.9
assists - 6.9
total - 20.8

Statistically Felton has a 1.5 aggregate lead on Conley although that is slightly inflated by his recent strong performances of 21 and 25 points in his last 2 games. If not for those the stats would be about dead even. The main angle I have on this play is that I expect Conley to lock Felton down tonight. Hollins will be very aware how good Felton has been playing last 2 games and no doubt will make Conley's #1 mission to hound him and prevent space and especially wide open looks all night, and Mike is more than capable of playing that lock down roll. Plus the Griz as a whole are superior perimeter defenders, good luck to the J.R Smith and Felton and Co who think they will have wide open gimme J's tonight.

[sando]

NBA

Golden State @ Minnesota

Warriors m/l (-102 Pinnacle) 1x

Too many key injuries to the T-Wolves, it's starting to get rediculous. Warriors under-rated this year, playing well, 4-4 record, 2-2 on the road with nice wins over the Suns and the Clip's and a 2 point loss to the Kings.

Malcolm Lee	leg Malcolm Lee left Wednesday's game against the Bobcats with cramps. Day-to-day Nov 14	G	Sidelined	Nov 14	leg	Day-to-day
Nikola Pekovic	ankle The Timberwolves will be without Nikola Pekovic (ankle) and J.J. Barea (foot) again Friday. Day-to-day Nov 16	C	Sidelined	Nov 12	ankle	Day-to-day
Chase Budinger	knee Chase Budinger (left knee) will miss 3-4 months after having surgery to repair a lateral meniscus tear, a league source told Adrian Wojnarowski. Out three months Nov 13	G/F	Sidelined	Nov 10	knee	Out three months
Brandon Roy	knee Brandon Roy's bum knee will keep him out of the lineup against the Warriors on Friday. Day-to-day Nov 16	G/F	Sidelined	Nov 9	knee	Day-to-day
J.J. Barea	foot J.J. Barea (foot) will sit out Friday's game against the Warriors. Day-to-day Nov 16	G	Sidelined	Nov 8	foot	Day-to-day
Kevin Love	hand Kevin Love (broken hand) says he will get X-rays on Tuesday and hopes to begin strengthening and shooting after that. Targeting early Dec. return Nov 14	F/C	Sidelined	Oct 17	hand	Targeting early Dec. return
Ricky Rubio	knee surgery Coach Rick Adelman said that he's still expecting Ricky Rubio to return in December. Targeting December return Nov 8	G	Sidelined	Mar 9	knee surgery	Targeting December return

[SiMON2g]

Good luck today mate like the Portland play

[Byrone09]

My US book doesn't have much in the way of NBA props. Wish I had that one. Also have the Pistons/Magic o/u currently at 188! Should I still go with the over?