[sando]

Adding 1 last play

Sacramenton@ LA Lakers

Under 193 (-108 Pinnacle) 1x

I was already eyeing this play off this morning however had a busy day and haven't had time to crunch the numbers like usual however with Cousins out I think Kings will find it difficult to score, he is their #1 offensive threat and they will have to rely heavily on a perimeter game and hope Thorntonis on today. Lakers also scoring is down this season. The line hasn't adjusted in fact we have gained 1.5 points @ -110 from the initial line of 191.5

[sando]

Great start to the NBA card. Grizzlies crush the heat, it was a beautiful thing. Conley - wow - guy was just beasting on both ends of the court, Griz bench looking solid this year, great game from Ellington, in fact there were no bad players tonight for Memphis, everyone put in, although Gasoline was a bit quiet offensively (again).

2-0 so far, hopefully cash the Lakers plays and then another winning day despite the 3x loss on the tennis.

[therealdealau]

let's go LA

[Untied]

Adding 1 last play

Sacramenton@ LA Lakers

Under 193 (-108 Pinnacle) 1x

Here's my write-up: Every other game went under today, why not this one too.

[sando]

Tennis
0-1 last night -3 Units

Tennis YTD 31-24-4 (+18.66 Units)


NBA
3-0-1 today +3.93 Units

(NBA totals 7-1-2 YTD)


NBA YTD 32-12-4 (+25.99 Units)

[Goat Milk]

Tennis
NBA YTD 33-12-3 (+26.92 Units)

wow. amazing how a foreigner knows so much about the nba. amazing work thus far.

[Sharp Snake]

The lakers total actually pushed at 193. crazy ending with a shooting foul called with .7 seconds in a blowout. ridiculous.

[MCOZONE]

Total Garbage. Esp. for those of us who took it at 192.5

[Untied]

Jimmer Fredette with a 3 point play at the buzzer

[sando]

wow. amazing how a foreigner knows so much about the nba. amazing work thus far.

I'm like you you mate, I live and breathe NBA, played ball my whole life, including JV at New Rochelle High School in NY.

*My dad is American. I lived in NY and went to h/s for 2 years, that helps...

[sando]

Sorry guys I just edited YTD and everything else. I thought the game finished on 192 - penetrating Fridette - un-believable...

[MCOZONE]

Jimmer Fredette with a 3 point play at the buzzer

I lost all 3 Basketball games I played today due to pointless fouls called or commited at final seconds in the game. Arrgh.

[Sharp Snake]

such is betting the NBA.

Very impressed Sando. keep up the great picks.

[therealdealau]

keep it up sando our boys are starting to turn a corner it appears, hopefully we can notch a win vs an elite side next.

[sando]

keep it up sando our boys are starting to turn a corner it appears, hopefully we can notch a win vs an elite side next.

Yeah was most impressed with Pau's mid-range J today, finally found his range. We wont have to wait long for a test mate, got Spurs at Staples next.

[DAHOTCORNER29]

I just started following your posts because you've been making some nasty picks. But anyways I'm from Eastchester, NY. Small world/

When did you graduate NRHS?

I'm like you you mate, I live and breathe NBA, played ball my whole life, including JV at New Rochelle High School in NY.

*My dad is American. I lived in NY and went to h/s for 2 years, that helps...

[Byrone09]

I was pretty sure the game ended at 192. Did they make a correction? My book had it as a win and then it changed to a loss (I had it at 192.5).

[Untied]

I noticed the same thing. I think the telecast was off by a point. It had it at 103-89. But everyone else had the game at 103-90. Went from an easy win--to a push--to a loss. Only loss I had today, but still sucks.

[sando]

Byrone and Untied - Yeah i saw the game end at 192 as well, that's why I graded the play as a win. It wasn't until I check my Pinny account and saw they marked the wager as "cancelled" and then I came back to this thread and saw everyones comments saying I had graded the play wrong that I started wondering what was going on?

Dahotcorne - Nice one. I lived in Westchester. Didn't graduate was just there for Freshman/Sophomore years when I was 14/15 (I'm 33 now).

[sando]

ATP World Tour Finals

Djokovic v Federer

Federer to win the first set (+125 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Their final tomorrow will be a fitting end to 2012. Each has a major and two wins against the other. One is No. 1 and the other No. 2. The winner may just be the Player of the Year. They are 2-2 in their four matches this year and Federer has won the last two matches winning 5-1 in sets played and claiming both matches as a significant dog (+211 on grass at Wimbledon then +170 on Hard Courts in Cincinatti).

Fed knows that in order to win this match he'll need to win the 1st set. It's just asking too much to come back from a set down and win two in a row without momentum against the world's best player, and yet having said all that I can't see Fed going down in straight sets on Indoor Hard. That is the key I believe - the surface. Djokovic is the man, and Fed is past his peak, however he is still the king on indoor hard for the time being (although that may change tonight)? Last time they played on Indoor hard was at this tournament in 2010 when Fed crushed the Djoker in straight sets after beating him at Basel also in straights 2 weeks prior. Yes alot has changed in two years and that may not be as relevant but it is still worth noting. See the key fact below, Fed still wins on IH, his only recent losses being the other day to Delboy when he already had 1st spot in the group tied up (barring a straight sets loss which he avoided) and a week earlier also against Delboy at Basel. Otherwise Fed is 33-2 in his last 35 IH matches.

I expect Fed to come out fired up and Djokovic does have a knack for starting slow (both sets lost by Djokovic this week have been first sets)

Ket Stat - Roger Federer has won 13 of last 14 at World Tour Finals level.

**May add another play soon...?

[Sharp Snake]

quick recap for the latecomers. The Lakers and Kings were in the middle of a 20 point blowout (with the Lakers starters playing until about 2:30 left on the clock) and a total of 12 points were scored in the final 60 seconds. Plays like Jodie Meeks getting an inbounds pass and shooting only 8 seconds into the shot clock were happening. Fredette got an offensive rebound with the total at 190, threw up a jumper at the buzzer and someone got a foul call. The game was listed as over in the box-score and there was a couple seconds of confusion on the court because the refs tacked on .7 seconds on the clock and made Fredette shoot a free throw, which naturally, he made, to put the total at 193.

[Sharp Snake]

couldnt agree more Sando as i posted just about the identical thing in GOAT's thread earlier in the night. Glad to see we're on the same page.

[SiMON2g]

On it, thanks bro!

[sando]

NBA

Milwaukee @ Philli

76'ers -3.5 (-110 Pinnacle) 2.5x

Atlanta @ Portland

Blazers -2 (-110 Pinnale) 2x*This line will probably move to -3

Miami @ Houston

Heat -5 (-108 Pinnacle) 1.5x *This line will probably move to -5.5 or -6



Totals

Milwaukee @ Philli

Under 189 (-110 Pinnacle) 1x

Denver @ Phoenix

Over 203 (-103 Pinnacle) 1x

**Analysis to follow on every game

NOte - Boys we have been on an amazing run to start the NBA season but lets not get carried away. It is more important now than ever to maintain strict discipline in regards to money management as it is impossible that I can continue to hit at over 70% over an extended period of time. Sooner or later the ugly V word (Variance) will catch up with us, however that is fine also, as individual results on any one game are irrelevant. It's about finding an edge through whatever means possible that will have a positive EV over an extended period of time, i.e - the course of an NBA season. The results will sort themselves out in due course. You should (if you have not already) set a unit price and stick to it, win or lose, the season is a grind not a foot race, but we will come out on top.

[ShotgunRua]

Thanks for everything you do sando, you're a legend.

[FredMadison]

Sando, you're great. Your note just shows your professionalism. Hope you'll keep up the good work.

[sando]

Shogun -

Thanks for the points boys, got to get a bit of sleep in but will be up in 5 hours and will ad some analysis for the NBA picks then. Have a lean on the Suns +4.5 against Denver but the Nuggets are so dangerous offensively, might be best to leave that one alone. I do expect the points to flow in that match.

Tennis
Just going to stick with the first set bet on Federer in the tennis. It can be really hard to find value in the later rounds of tennis tournaments, the best spots are almost always found in the earlier rounds and I do like Fed's odds at +133 for the m/l, however it is a dangerous game backing against Djokovic, so I think I'll stay away.

[ShotgunRua]

I've been debating a straight play on Fed but I think i'll take ur advice and go for 1st set. Thanks again.

[Sam_Hawkins]

hey sando, thx for putting the nba picks up earlier, cos I'm like 6 hours ahead of US and I'm usually sleeping when you announce picks so I can't place 'em ))

[ShotgunRua]

hey sando, thx for putting the nba picks up earlier, cos I'm like 6 hours ahead of US and I'm usually sleeping when you announce picks so I can't place 'em ))

Same here, in England.... I have stayed up pretty late on occasion to check this thread!

[europe_baller]

I dont bet against djokovic like i said, with him or no bet..

$50 on djokovic for 1.67 to win 33

$50 teaser 5 points miami - 0.5, dallas -2 and boston +7.5

Lets go Nole!!!

[Byrone09]

We can thank Chris Duhon for that loss/push. Fouling with a 16 point lead at the buzzer! Guess we'll see higher totals for Laker games with D'Antoni coming to town.

Damn my book does not do tennis 1st set... Might just gamble and go with Federe m/l...

[sando]

Wow what a 1st set, one of the best I have seen this year. So painful to lose the Fed bet after his 3-0 start and then amazing come back when down 4-5 on Djokovics serve. Shame to finish up the tournament like this after such a great run but has still been a successful 3 weeks or so...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA

Philly -3.5 and under 189

Philly on a bit of a roll ATM, going for 4 in a row coming off a solid road trip. 76ers traditionally dominate Bucks at home, winning 8 of the last 9. Philly playing some serious D at the moment, Dougie Collins got this squad balling and things can only get better with big Bynum still to come. More relevant Is J Rich should be suiting up today, bringing some much needed offensive firepower to the line up. Nick Young is always dangerous and like JR Smith can just take over games with offensive explosions off the bench. Bucks rely heavily on the ultra talented but rather inconsistent back court pairing of Ellis and Jennings. If they are off then the bucks will seriously struggle to put up points against a dialled in Philly D. Philly has More than capable back court defenders and expect this match to be more of a grind than a free flowing affair.

Miami -5.5

Rockets will probably not have appreciated the demolition job the Griz dished out last night, knowing they have to deal with a fired up Heat team today. D-wade was almost non existent yesterday and as an under-rated on ball defender will surely rise to the challenge of guarding the rising force that is Harden. Lin has a great first step and can definitely get to the rim but Chalmers has proven to be a reliable and Pesky defender who is more than capable of slowing Lin down. There is no Iguodala or Artest type to slow Lebron down and as usual if Miami's army of 3 point bombers led by squadron leader Ray Allen are on then the inconsistent Rockets will be all sorts of trouble. Miami in a classic bounce back spot tonight.

Portland -2

Many people think the Blazers were crazy to throw all that money at Nick Batum but in his last game against a very solid defensive unit in the spurs he went all cold blooded in the 4th dragging Portland back into the game and showing glimpses of his true potential. Add into the mix super exciting ROY candidate Lillard and the always consistent lamarcus Aldridge and Portland has the building blocks of a really nice team around some solid if not spectacular role players. With the strength of the West this year and the hype surrounding teams like the Nuggets and Lakers, Portland has been completely overlooked as a possible play-off team. One thing is for sure, Portland at the Rose garden is always a tough out. Wasn't overly impressed with the Hawks yesterday (they are coming off a back2back - relevant?) and am not buying the better without Joe Johnson hype either. Aldridge and Horford should be a fascinating battle down low but I would not be surprised to see Portland pull away in the 2nd half and win this game comfortably.

Suns/Nuggets over 203

No time left for a write up but I have 1 quick thing to say. If you could pick any 2 teams in the NBA to play out an "over" match - which two teams would you pick?Hmmm...?

Edit - I must apologise for my Miami write up, Scola does indeed play for the Suns now (as Goat pointed out). I was watching the Fed/Djokovic match as I was doing the write ups for the NBA picks and it totally slipped my mind. How embarrassing.

[Frisco]

"If you could pick any 2 teams in the NBA to play out an "over" match - which two teams would you pick?Hmmm...?"

Probably take Spurs and Nugs but like it nonetheless. gl

[southmadejd]

Great job sando....I appreciate all of the pics and the hard work you put into them.