[cocknocker]

Okay what we have here is a failure to communicate. i don't like wagering on sub 500 teams, but the situtation calls for it because it is flawless so far this season, and i have to rid eit out as far as i can homies. I have a few more games than usual, but i couldn't turn any of them away because i liked them all equally, so they will all get wagered on equally.

I am taking the Thunder to keep the "Beat the Champs" hex alive. Every team outside of the lakers has gotten blown out in their next game, with the exception of the Lakers, who beat the Warriors who also had beaten the Celtics the previous nigt, when the Celtics loston two consecutive nights to the Lakers and the Warriors. I think that teams are 1-5 ats in games following wins over the Celtics. Throw in the fact that the Thunder got blown out in their last game, and you have the makings of an ats shocker. The Rockets are 1-4 ats in games that they are favored by 8 or more, and I have a feeling that they will be favored by 8 in the morning. If not, I will MAKE my spread:

Okahoma City+8.5


Styles has given this play the thumbs up and she has the Bobcats actually winning this game by 4 outright with her research. She points to the tendencies of the Sixers and how they have won two straight games outright as a dog, and 3 straight ats covers. Then she points to the Bobcats blowout loss to the Cavs. I think that she may be on to something.

Charlotte+6.5 or more (waiting it out)

Oh my, Miami is coming off of a nationally televised game loss, and the Sacramento Kings are laying their first home game after a 4 game east coast road trip. The Heat are already 4-1 ats in games in Sacramento. Oh my...

Miami-3.5 (point buy)


Now I am smoking on the Lakers, but I have to see the line. They are 5-0 straight up and ats in games against the Pacers in Tinseltown, but I have to see the line. We all know how inflated the Lakers lines have been this year. The spreads for their games in Los Angeles is usually 7 points on average, but we will never get that this year. Anything under double digts I will take homies. but that is a late game and I have oodles of time to wait on it.

Lakers- anything under 10*

*UPDATE WITH A SPREAD OF 14.5 FOR THE LAKERS THIS IS A NO PLAY FOR ME


Boston. That's all I have to say on the Cavs/Celtics game. Too much is being mde of the losing streak and also too much is being made of the Cavaliers blowout against the Bobcats. Thou shalt not wager against the Celtics in a big game.

Boston+4.5 maybe more


College basketball: Niagra-12.5 They are 8-1 ats on the road and 12-3 ats overall homies!

Alright little homies, What y'all like?

[MarkHammond]

Okay what we have here is a failure to communicate. i don't like wagering on sub 500 teams, but the situtation calls for it because it is flawless so far this season, and i have to rid eit out as far as i can homies. I have a few more games than usual, but i couldn't turn any of them away because i liked them all equally, so they will all get wagered on equally.

I am taking the Thunder to keep the "Beat the Champs" hex alive. Every team outside of the lakers has gotten blown out in their next game, with the exception of the Lakers, who beat the Warriors who also had beaten the Celtics the previous nigt, when the Celtics loston two consecutive nights to the Lakers and the Warriors. I think that teams are 1-5 ats in games following wins over the Celtics. Throw in the fact that the Thunder got blown out in their last game, and you have the makings of an ats shocker. The Rockets are 1-4 ats in games that they are favored by 8 or more, and I have a feeling that they will be favored by 8 in the morning. If not, I will MAKE my spread:

Okahoma City+8.5


Styles has given this play the thumbs up and she has the Bobcats actually winning this game by 4 outright with her research. She points to the tendencies of the Sixers and how they have won two straight games outright as a dog, and 3 straight ats covers. Then she points to the Bobcats blowout loss to the Cavs. I think that she may be on to something.

Charlotte+6.5 or more (waiting it out)

Oh my, Miami is coming off of a nationally televised game loss, and the Sacramento Kings are laying their first home game after a 4 game east coast road trip. The Heat are already 4-1 ats in games in Sacramento. Oh my...

Miami-3.5 (point buy)


Now I am smoking on the Lakers, but I have to see the line. They are 5-0 straight up and ats in games against the Pacers in Tinseltown, but I have to see the line. We all know how inflated the Lakers lines have been this year. The spreads for their games in Los Angeles is usually 7 points on average, but we will never get that this year. Anything under double digts I will take homies. but that is a late game and I have oodles of time to wait on it.

Lakers- anything under 10


Boston. That's all I have to say on the Cavs/Celtics game. Too much is being mde of the losing streak and also too much is being made of the Cavaliers blowout against the Bobcats. Thou shalt not wager against the Celtics in a big game.

Boston+4.5 maybe more

Alright little homies, What y'all like?

gotta see where the celtic line goes


explain the okla theory again

[shoebox]

CK thanks again, homes.
God bless

[shoebox]

Hammond,

Any team that plays Boston always has a huge let down

[nick2060]

the team that beats the celtics loses the next game or doesnt cover the spread all except for one time this season, and i believe two teams that beat boston faced each other, meaning one had to win....houston beat boston, im sure ck can explain it better though

[MarkHammond]

the team that beats the celtics loses the next game or doesnt cover the spread all except for one time this season, and i believe two teams that beat boston faced each other, meaning one had to win....houston beat boston, im sure ck can explain it better though

oh ok i get ya

[Wilforth]

Okc ml

[The_Kid]

Agree with the Lakers pick. I'm sure they'll want to avenge that heart breaking loss in Indiana as well. I'd also take a look at the second half line depending on the first half because the Pacers do fade in the second half (especially the 4th quarter).

I'm looking at the New Orleans game. Clippers will be on a back to back and without any of their main guys (Davis, Randolph, Kaman). Their starters have definitely logged a lot of minutes lately and a couple of them (Collins and Jones) probably haven't played this much in their whole careers compared to the past couple games. I know the spread will probably be like (-14 or -15) but I'll look more into it and see what's going on. If anything, I'd take a look at the second half of that game too because I just saw the Clippers melt in the second half tonight. To make it better, New Orleans is a second half team anyways.

[cocknocker]

I already wagered on

Oklahoma City+8.5
Boston+4.5
Miami-3.5 ( I think that this line will go up)
Charlotte+6.5

[darkenergy]

Hi CK,
I am a long time lurker and first time poster. First of all, thank you CK and many other posters that contribute to CK's threads daily. I am a newbie and slowly learning some of great tips from you guys here, hopefully someday I can contribute something to this forum.
I do like all of the picks that you listed.
Aside from those, what do you think about Atlanta? As I want to get back some money I lost yesterday on them. I waged very heavy on Cleveland (your pick) and Atlanta equally, so I want to get back the money that I lost on the Atlanta.
Atlanta +5.5.
Head to Head.

• Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
• ATL are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando.

Atlanta trend:

• Under is 6-2-1 in ATL last 9 games as an underdog.
• ATL are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.

Please share your thoughts.

Again, thank you CK for today picks, I am cashed the ticket on SA, NY, Gator.

[cocknocker]

Gonna wait on the Lakers until late in the day.

[djpremier36]

I like NO to mop up the Clips.

Clips on a B2B and NO is pissed after getting stomped by Utah.

[Broncos9798]

Mark,

Enough with the quotes.

CK,

What are your thoughts on the Pistons coming to Denver. No Carmelo and Iverson is going to want to go off on us. I dont have a line on this game on my site. I think I might fade the Nuggets but it depends on the line.

I fully with you on the Celtics game....I also cant wait to watch that.

Great job this bowl season.....I have people paying me right now that were on Oklahoma!

[danrman]

liking the celts Big!!!.. they have been pointing to this game for a while to start their winning streak.. remember when the lakes were on a losing streak and they were pointing towards the new orleans road game to get things started the right way again.. they won several in a row before losing to the same new orleans team the other night at home.. this is the same for boston... boston wins and the points are a gift

[danrman]

hey ck do you have any stats on teams that are playing their last home game before going on a long road trip... seems like they dont cover... orlando is in this position playing atlanta again before going on their big west road trip and they are about to play sa,sac,lal,denver all roady.. any info on that last game at home trend... thanks

[shoebox]

Agreed danram,
Boston will most likely get the outright win. This is a perfect set up for the ML also.
Also love the thunder with the divided rockets squad. I think these two will be my only plays as I will go heavy.

[stakagrp]

CK,
Nice picks once again today. I liked them, but was a little skeptical just because Covers were on them both. I rode with both and the Gators. Too bad New Mex. St. didn't come through. They had a strong 1st half and blew it in the second and ot. It was a great day however. Looking forward to tomorrow's card.

What are your thoughts on Orl/Atl game tomorrow? That first game between the two clubs costed me big the other day. I like the points with Atlanta. I thought that they should've had the game if they didn't miss all those free throws and Bibby's missed layup. I know that you don't mess with totals but do you have an opinion on it as well? Any input will be great.

[danrman]

det-den-the chauncy billups allen iverson bowl takes off tomorrow night... denver has conf. foes dallas and phoenix next and detroit continues their roady w/ utah next.. im likin detroit in this one.. they should win w/ denver looking ahead to dallas and phoenix and they better win if they want to salvage a gm from this short 3 gm road trip cause they aint gonna win in utah on saturday night...

boston-cleve-read notes already written in thread

atl-orlando-these 2 teams finish off their home at home before orlando hits the road for a tough tough road trip w/ games at sa,sac,lal,denver... atl is 8-3 ats in orlando and they could cover here as it seems tough for teams to cover in their last game before their road trip...

memphis-tor-everyone knows memphis is terrible on the road but if they get double digits they could be worth taking because toronto begins a home at home w/ the defending nba champs next

thats a couple of notes from the early look.. i dont feel the need to reinterate points ck has already made.. i do like the okc angle vs houston and want to add that a team from oklahoma always gets up for a team from texas... im glad we all ended the college fball season w/ a bang and my under hit also.. lets get em' fri night boyz!!!

[pho3nix32]

hi, newbie here from china. bumped into this forum by accident 2 weeks ago. ive been following ck's leans eversince. just wanted to say thank you to ck for all his tips and analysis. they have been very helpful. more power to ck and the ck mafia!

[NBA Hero]

lots on atl.

i like orl even if the free throw of howard is still unreliable. team is playing well coz everyone gets their share of the ball. no ego problem so far. defense maybe a bit questionable at times coz of the position of lewis but can give probs to defenders coz of his outside shooting.

il go for a small one on orl, they have a better record compared to atl. cant just rely on their past game stats. atl has bibby and joe who shoots well outside. but more often than not the threes wont go in. howard is more dominant compared to smith and horford.

if bogans still does not play, he might be missed coz joe should be covered coz he can get hot

[wangichu]

"

[africanroller]

Wang use Covers or sportsinsights

[jamesrg]

I like the Sixers on friday....They've quietly played pretty good the last 3 games and they're at home to a non playoff team...(home court is huge in the nba)..And they seem to be better without Brand and they're looking more and more like the dangerous team they were last year.

I'll take a look at the Lakers and Bucks lines as well when they come out.

[NBA Hero]

ck and mafia,

any insights on clips @ NO.

[lambogb]

ive only got a bankroll of 112
so im making my standard bet 12, goal is 300

unless you think i should do more, ive bet 12 on straight bets:

1) OKC +7.5
2) Charlotte +6
3) Boston +4.5

the sportsinteraction line for miami is -4.5 so i was thinking of throwing a bit more than 12 on the moneyline

looking forward toyour next post ck

[joanapoker]

Good morning everyone....well you guys from the US are still sleeping

yesterday I've made 4 picks for today and only one is the same as CK, that is CHA+6 so I've bought the hook and puted at +6.5

I already played Cavs-3.5(hook buy): I don't care if Boston will start doing better, I've stop trusting them....I'm gonna go against them and bet on King James!! The public is showing some love for the Celtics as a dog.....I guess the linesmaker knows that and will not move the line all day getting as much money on the celts as possible!

Also played MIA-3.5 (point buy) CK pick

And I'm waiting for the OKC to go up a point or two! 80% of the money on Houston and the line doesn't moves??? Ohhh boy....I'm gonna like to get my money cashing in on OKC!!

[Awesome Aussie]

Good morning everyone....well you guys from the US are still sleeping

yesterday I've made 4 picks for today and only one is the same as CK, that is CHA+6 so I've bought the hook and puted at +6.5

I already played Cavs-3.5(hook buy): I don't care if Boston will start doing better, I've stop trusting them....I'm gonna go against them and bet on King James!! The public is showing some love for the Celtics as a dog.....I guess the linesmaker knows that and will not move the line all day getting as much money on the celts as possible!

Also played MIA-3.5 (point buy) CK pick

And I'm waiting for the OKC to go up a point or two! 80% of the money on Houston and the line doesn't moves??? Ohhh boy....I'm gonna like to get my money cashing in on OKC!!

I like the Cavs, I mean LeBron James.

Good position.

Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston

Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston

Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston

Cleveland is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games at home


Boston are 4-15-1 ATS in its last 20 games against Clevland


In Cleveland on Friday, the atmosphere will reek of revenge.
"They got us up there," Cavs guard Mo Williams said. "It's our turn. It's payback time."

[zackattack]

ESPN bottom line update
went 8-3 yesterday
i knew that 2 of the plays were going to be shaky cause they were big road dogs in nhl.....i will still count them as losses, but may have to filter out huge hockey dogs.

[Dexter]

home and home between the magic/hawks - the hawks are in a nice spot getting pts (12-3 ats) and played well in orl earlier in the year (su win).

*hawks
____________________
revenge is on the minds for cleav from last years great series. they tried their best in boston earlier this year - but now they catch the ice cold celts on their home floor on a friday night. close game, but the cavs pull away late by 8-10.

*cavs
_________________________
letdown here for the rockets after the big win in boston - we all know how teams fair after beating the champs. thunder have been a solid ats team all year.

*thunder
________________________
hornets look to get that bad taste out of their mouth from the pounding in utah - what better team to have roll in than the clips (btb)

*hornets
________________________
the wizards are 3-0 ats their last 3 trips to chicago. i like jamison/butler to keep this one close, and even win this one outright.

*wizards
_________________________
lakers looking to avenge an early season loss at indiana - pacrers run-n-gun style will suit the lakers fine. they may drop 125 on indy tonight. indy lost last year by 16 at staples...

*lakers
_________________________
suns look to get back on track after a home loss to the pacers the other night - nice spot catching the mavs off a hard fought win last night.

*suns
_________________________

[darkenergy]

I found this interesting article for those who cares,
SportsInsights Article on NBA Research: Betting Against the Public, Dogs & Point Spreads
NBA Data from 2003-2008 (Past five seasons) - December 2008
Some of our Members asked us to revisit an NBA article we wrote several years ago for the NBA that focused on:

• "Betting against the Public" and
• Various point spreads.

In particular, that article looked at home underdogs that the Public hated. In this update, we'll look at these factors -- as well as visiting underdogs. The information on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or local laws is prohibited.
NBA Data
The research for this article is based on five seasons' worth of NBA data that SportsInsights collected, starting with the 2003-2004 season:

• Five seasons (2003-2008) worth of data.
• Includes regular season and playoff games
• Excludes pre-season and All-Star games.
• Almost 6,500 NBA games.

Betting Against the Public
Recently, we updated our annual NBA "Betting Against the Public" article. We saw that "betting against the public" -- especially around the 25% level -- can give sports bettors a slight edge against the sportsbooks. What if we bet on home underdogs that get a certain number of points? What about visiting dogs? Let's take a look.
Betting Against the Public -- Home Underdogs
Now, what if we look at home underdogs? We used "betting percentages" and took any team that opened as a home underdog (home team getting points). "Betting against the Public" continues to show a profitable bias over the past five seasons as follows:
Table 1: NBA and Betting Against the Public (Home Team Opening as Underdog) (2003-2008, Five Seasons)
Betting % on Home Team
Opening Home Spread >= 0.1
Win % (Units)
35%
49.2% (-39 units)
30%
49.9% (-17 units)
25%
49.7% (-12 units)
20%
52.6% (+6 units)

We can see that using "betting percentages" gives us an edge -- although at the 20% level, there aren't many games generated. We'll also take a look at home underdogs that are getting more points (3 or more points, 5 or more points, and 7 or more points).
Table 2: NBA and Betting Against the Public (Home Team Opening as Underdog) (2003-2008, Five Seasons)
Betting % on Home Team
Opening Home Spread >= 0.1
Win % (Units)
Opening Home Spread >= 2.9
Win % (Units)
Opening Home Spread >= 4.9
Win % (Units)
Opening Home Spread >= 6.9
Win % (Units)
35%
49.2% (-39 units)
49.7% (-22 units)
48.6% (-23 units)
49.3% (-7 units)
30%
49.9% (-17 units)
50.2% (-10 units)
48.9% (-15 units)
50.6% (-1 units)
25%
49.7% (-12 units)
49.6% (-10 units)
48.4% (-11 units)
50.5% (-1 units)
20%
52.6% (+6 units)
50.0% (-3 units)
50.0% (-2 units)
52.6% (+1 units)

Again, we can see that "Betting against the Public" marginally improves results. Now, let's take a look at visiting underdogs.
Betting Against the Public -- Visiting Underdogs
The Table below shows the results for "Betting Against the Public" and selecting Visiting Dogs getting at least 1 point, 3 points, 5 points and 7 points.
Table 3: NBA and Betting Against the Public (Visiting Team Opening as Underdog) (2003-2008, Five Seasons)
Betting % on Visiting Team
Opening Visiting Spread >= 0.1
Win % (Units)
Opening Visiting Spread >= 2.9
Win % (Units)
Opening Visiting Spread >= 4.9
Win % (Units)
Opening Visiting Spread >= 6.9
Win % (Units)
35%
52.7% (+29 units)
52.4% (+23 units)
51.3% (+4 units)
49.9% (-11 units)
30%
55.4% (+32 units)
54.5% (+25 units)
53.2% (+14 units)
53.3% (+11 units)
25%
53.1% (+6 units)
52.3% (+4 units)
51.8% (+2 units)
52.2% (+2 units)
20%
54.5% (+2 units)
54.5% (+2 units)
56.7% (+3 units)
55.6% (+3 units)

Interestingly, the results for Visiting Underdogs are better than the results for Home dogs. In Table 3, we highlighted the 30% level for taking visiting dogs. Taking any visiting dog that has less than 30% of the bets would have resulted in a 55.4% winning percentage over the past five seasons. What other conclusions can we make?
Conclusions

• SportsInsights.com's "Betting Percentages" continue to be a useful tool for sports bettors.
• It appears that home court advantage might be over-valued in the NBA. That is, the traditional bias for betting on home underdogs has been reduced in the NBA.
• There is a solid edge to taking Visiting Underdogs in the NBA.
• Again, we want to emphasize that the sports marketplace is "efficient" and that trends and biases often dissipate over time.
  

I like OKC + 7 (CK's style play). Question for CK, should I try to lock the bet now, or wait to the game time. I noticed that public on Houston has dropped to 69% from high 70% since last night.
ATL + 5.5 (probably VERY HEAVY, if CK give me a green light , I am glad to see Drexter on my side already ). Like the article pointed out, there is a solid edge to take a visting dog. Currently public bettors are 69% on ORL.
The trend looking good for ALT, am I missing something.


-- English is not my first language, so please excused me for my gramartically imperfection.

http://sportsinsights.com/sportsbett...rdog_2008.aspx

[Dexter]

its dexter, not drexter! haha

[Dana4U]

DarkEnergy - if you follow the "rules" as you have outlined, then ATL would be the play for now since they are presently the dawg and the majority of the bets are sitting with ORL. This will change throughout the day. I have been following these different RLM theories and what not pretty closely for the last 90 days or so. Some days that are pretty damn accurate and would generate 85% success rates (and you could even take that number higher with a little bit of wisdom; as CK and others provide in this thread). However, other days the "number theories" suck ass and you they are more around the 20% success rate. This was the case last night with college basketball games.

Good Luck to You!!

[Dana4U]

Where on the ESPN website are the basketball picks posted?

ESPN bottom line update
went 8-3 yesterday
i knew that 2 of the plays were going to be shaky cause they were big road dogs in nhl.....i will still count them as losses, but may have to filter out huge hockey dogs.

[NBA Hero]

joanapoker,

where do you see the betting trends?

thnks

[akharlip]

CK
great pick on Niagara
Dont bet much college ball but when i started this year Niagara has been good ATS mostly.
They should cover tonight
Leans for tonight OKC+8
Heat-3.5
Bobcats +6.5
Parlay them all as well