Grinder's Iteration on Stiflers NBA Chase

[imotiv8]

isnt fade Clev an EX 'D' bet?

[samcro1]

We aren't playing 4 game chases anymore bud. Check out grinders previous posts

[Grinder12000]

The chart are days in the season on the bottom and daily units won lost going up the trend line.

3 game chases. When I was charting Stiffler the "D" bets were losing and this year my "D" were basically a 50% bet and I wonder how many people were playing them. They
were just adding stress. The stress per buck ratio was absurd. But that does not stop anybody from playing a "D" game.

and don't get me started on 1-7-5 betting where you hope you lose that first game.

Ill get to the rest of the picks, if there are any in about an hour.

The reason I'm against the 1-7-5 betting system is frankly - I don't understand the value in it besides anecdotal evidence that it works.

Of course I'm not fond of my 1-2.1-4.4 betting system either but it makes slightly more sense. In my chases the average bet size for all three games is 2.5 units. Iin 1-7-5 it's 4.3 units. So you are betting 73% more units, of course it's going to win more . . .when it wins. It's a much higher risk. I just don't understand the underlying logic. Does the 2nd game really offer 600% more value then the 1st game? and the 3rd game 28% LESS value then the 2nd game? Then why not just skip the 1st game and start with a 7 unit bet.

I'm not going to get into what is better, that is not my point. I'm just explaining why I'm not a big proponent of 1-7-5. Just does not have any real logic to it.

sorry. 1-7-5 is actually 1-15-26 which just blows my mind. What the hell is 1 unit then. The average bet is 14 units? Shaking my head. To each his own.

[Grinder12000]

********+*

[Jeremylynn]

Better luck tomorrow

[Grinder12000]

I have some inner demons at the moment and it's killing me. No one noticed I should have had Cleveland as a FADE in the EX system. I feel horrible. I have not figured out how to fix this yet.

[Grinder12000]

01/13/14

All systems combined straight betting 190-148
All chases Tot 61.96u
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out
FAQ is on POST 425

Results

S3,H3,O1 = 87-73 +31.37u

92B H3 fade Cleveland Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10 Win
95A S3 Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

EX = 77-57 +21.66u

imotiv8 - I and samcro1 both focused on the "D" part of your question - it was a "B" fade and you were correct-ish - I SHOULD have read you more correctly!
76B EX Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10 Lose

SAS2
SAS2 26-17 +8.93u
"A" Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
"A" Atlanta 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose
"A" fade Sacramento hmmmm let's say Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 Lose

all right - here is the thing - on weekends you guys overseas just need to know that picks will be up later then during the weekdays. I seem to make mistakes when in a hurry on weekend mornings. 76B EX SHOULD have been FADE Cleveland. I apologize. My spread sheet has F Cleve and I just missed it for some reason.

Steps have been taken to correct the problem and I DO appreciate you guys checking for accuracy!

Monday - final

80A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00
81A EX San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00

"C" SAS2 Washington 4.85 to win 4.41
34A SAS2 Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00

"D" BET fade Chicago play at your own risk

More freaking words!

Of note - I've been back filling the SAS2 system starting from the beginning of the year up to December 6th. Those 35 days have resulted in a 72-54 record, +12.6 units. Chase wise 31.30 units. These numbers are actually worse then posted plays since I started.

Combine those 35 days and the 11 posted 99-71 +20.9 straight betting, +40.23 3 game chasing. Just sayin.

[miczz14]

The chart are days in the season on the bottom and daily units won lost going up the trend line.

3 game chases. When I was charting Stiffler the "D" bets were losing and this year my "D" were basically a 50% bet and I wonder how many people were playing them. They
were just adding stress. The stress per buck ratio was absurd. But that does not stop anybody from playing a "D" game.

and don't get me started on 1-7-5 betting where you hope you lose that first game.

Ill get to the rest of the picks, if there are any in about an hour.

The reason I'm against the 1-7-5 betting system is frankly - I don't understand the value in it besides anecdotal evidence that it works.

Of course I'm not fond of my 1-2.1-4.4 betting system either but it makes slightly more sense. In my chases the average bet size for all three games is 2.5 units. Iin 1-7-5 it's 4.3 units. So you are betting 73% more units, of course it's going to win more . . .when it wins. It's a much higher risk. I just don't understand the underlying logic. Does the 2nd game really offer 600% more value then the 1st game? and the 3rd game 28% LESS value then the 2nd game? Then why not just skip the 1st game and start with a 7 unit bet.

I'm not going to get into what is better, that is not my point. I'm just explaining why I'm not a big proponent of 1-7-5. Just does not have any real logic to it.

sorry. 1-7-5 is actually 1-15-26 which just blows my mind. What the hell is 1 unit then. The average bet is 14 units? Shaking my head. To each his own.

does this mean all systems will end at C bet or just stifler's?

[imotiv8]

----

[Mako-SBR]

does this mean all systems will end at C bet or just stifler's?

I hope we're still going to D on everything, because those are the highest winning straight-bets in this whole thing...

Grinder: You have a big heart (which is a nice change from the norm!) but don't try to babysit the group from losses my friend. We're all big boys and those who want to chase will pay the price (or reap the rewards as it may be). And they will do so regardless of whether you tweak the systems to prevent it or not.

The systems are all doing well, particularly for the straight guys as you mentioned, so keep up the great work as you have been. And as always, thanks so much for everything you do.

[miczz14]

i think ur missing C EX ORL?

[Grinder12000]

miczz14 - if you will notice on Friday we had

74B EX fade Orlando Sacramento 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN then for SOME reason the next day
74B EX Orlando 2.31 to win 2.10

Orlando has lost 7 ATS in a row and are 1-1 in the last 5 years after 7 straight.

The weekend was just a f*cked up mess. Let's just put the weekend in the past and move forward.

For some reason I marked it as a loss on my spread sheet and THEN to make matters worse I continued the chase but in the wrong direction Saturday. 5 systems, 18 games it was a huge learning lesson.

"D" bets - I'll post them but will not included them in any of MY stats. I'm tryign to eliminate mistakes and keeping things simple with 5 systems.

Right now SAD2 "A" and "C" bets are hitting 61% in the backtesting/live games 80-52. I'll look at the other systems.

[Grinder12000]

For Straight Bettors

The original systems

W - L
S3 - streak
"A" 12-16
"B" 9-6
"C" 5-1
"D" 0-1

H3 - Home/Away
"A" 13-14
"B" 10-4
"C" 2-1
"D" 1-0

O1- Overtime
"A" 25-15
"B" 7-9
"C" 5-4
"D" 2-2

EX - my RPI system
"A" 47-34
"B" 24-11
"C" 4-4
"D" 2-2

SAD2 - includes non-posted games Nov2 to Dec 6th
"A" 69-46
"B" 19-19
"C" 11-6
"D" * 1-4 *if we would have played "D" games - Fade Chicago today

So you see "D" games are not a wise bet - but I will make it know where there is a "D" bet.

TODAY
SAS2 "D" BET fade Chicago play at your own risk

Just out of giggles I added all data I have for SAS2 (my favorite system ) which is now 48 days and 117 total chases and at the moment "we" are winning 0.36 units every time we start a new chase. +0.14 units for every straight bet. Of course, I know this is small amount of data with only 185 total plays but 59.4% in 185 plays is nice. I wish I knew how many games I needed to hit some sort of standard deviation in the NBA. 300? 1000?

[Mako-SBR]

That's awesome, thanks for the update Grinder.

[Grinder12000]

Just so there is a record - I'm playing a 3 game chase Phoenix UNDER 198 UNDER UNDER


And just wondering - does anyone else watch The Walking Dead? Is this show shown outside the U.S.? I'm not a zombie fanatic but this has to be one of the best shows on TV. It's the highest rated cable show ever. Fantastic character development. Just curious. I'm still catching up and started season 3.

[Mako-SBR]

Just so there is a record - I'm playing a 3 game chase Phoenix UNDER 198 UNDER UNDER


And just wondering - does anyone else watch The Walking Dead? Is this show shown outside the U.S.? I'm not a zombie fanatic but this has to be one of the best shows on TV. It's the highest rated cable show ever. Fantastic character development. Just curious. I'm still catching up and started season 3.

My personal "top 5 dramatic shows", all time, in NO particular order as all are equally incredible:

-The Sopranos
-The Wire
-Mad Men
-The Walking Dead
-Breaking Bad

Lot of other shows are "good", and of course this doesn't include any comedies (different list), but these 5 are in my dramatic Pantheon for sure above all others.

And great job tonight Grinder, system bounced back nicely. Your PHO Under bet even hit with a damn OT!

[Jeremylynn]

Nice night guys....back on the saddle

[Jeremylynn]

Love the top five.... No sons of anarchy?

[Mako-SBR]

Love the top five.... No sons of anarchy?

No. Good show, but not enough to crack that elite Top 5. Really close though, would definitely be somewhere in a 6-10 spot. Solid pick.

[Grinder12000]

01/14/14

All systems combined straight betting 193-148
All chases Tot 67.27u
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

Results
80A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
81A EX San Antonio 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost by 1/2

"C" SAS2 Washington 4.85 to win 4.41 Win
34A SAS2 Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

Bonus play Phoenix UNDER Win even in OT! whew

**************************************** *********
Tuesdays games

SAS2 28-17 +14.34u
35A SAD2 fade Charlotte NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 **(1)
##B SAD2 Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10
##B SAD2 fade Sacramento Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10

EX = 78-58 +21.56u
82A EX fade LALakers Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00
83A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00

S3,H3,O1 = 87-73 +31.37u
95B S3 Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10
96A O1 fade NYKnicks Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00 **(1)

Bonus 3 game chase Sacramento UNDER 194ish?

**(1) If playing all games - cancel both games to save juice.

That's all for today
**************************************** *********

My CURRENT favorite non-network shows

Deadwood (all time favorite)
Walking Dead
Mad Men
Hell On Wheels
Justified
Forgot Game of thrones
OH Boardwalk Empire!!

Currently watching on network
The Blacklist
Revolution
Person Of Interest
Almost Human (keeps getting better)

[miczz14]

these are my fav tv shows:
Game of thrones
Walking Dead
Sherlock
Breaking Bad
Lost
Prison Break

[Grinder12000]

Closing the gap in the SAS2 system so I'll have a full year of stats soon 9 days to go - THEN I can work on my totals system.

[Grinder12000]

01/15/14

All systems combined straight betting 196-152
All chases Tot 64.66u and treading water
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

Results
SAS2 29-19 +13.03u
35A SAD2 fade Charlotte NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00 LOST
##B SAD2 Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10 Lost
##B SAD2 fade Sacramento Indiana 2.31 to win 2.10 Win

EX = 79-59 +21.46u
82A EX fade LALakers Cleveland 1.10 to win 1.00 Lost
83A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

S3,H3,O1 = 88-74 +30.06u
95B S3 Cleveland 2.31 to win 2.10 Lost
96A O1 fade NYKnicks Charlotte 1.10 to win 1.00 Win

Bonus 3 game chase Sacramento UNDER 194ish? LOST - NOT included in any stats yet

Wednesdays known games as of the night before

35B SAS2 fade Charlotte Philadelphia 2.31 to win 2.10
##C SAS2 Golden State 4.85 to win 4.41
##C SAS2 Cleveland 4.85 to win 4.41

73C EX Golden State 4.85 to win 4.41 two totally different systems both picking G.S.
81B EX San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10
82B EX fade LALakers Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10 ***(1)
84A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00

90C S3 Philadelphia 4.85 to win 4.41
95C S3 Cleveland 4.85 to win 4.41
97A S3 Washington 1.10 to win 1.00
98A S3 Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1)
99A O1 fade Phoenix LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 ***(1)


***(1) Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10

SAS2 "C" games Entire year* are 18-7 straight up (16% chases go to "C") *includes back tested
EX "C" games Entire year are 4-4 ( 9% chases go to "C")
S3,H3,O1 games Entire year are 12-6 ( 26% chases go to "C")

As for "D" games
SAS2 1-5
S3,H3,O1 3-3
EX 2-2

Remember - I'll post the At Your Own risk "D" games but they are not part of this system

And just for the record
Bonus 3 game chase Sacramento UNDER 194ish? LOST UNDER 217 tonight

Twitter @Grinder12000 - changes and corrections!

I'll have final SAS2 back testing completed today with some awesome numbers!

[miczz14]

00:00.1 [LAL 118-120]

Gasol Layup Shot: Made (20 PTS)

welcome to the NBA

[Trep]

Lol what a crap welcome. Kind of surprised lakers came back after the blowout at beginning of 3q

[Mako-SBR]

I rarely watch any of the games but happened to watch the Cleveland/Laker game. That last 30 seconds of brick-laying ridiculousness from the FT line by Cleveland...no words...

[Trep]

I was like...great lead is going to grow...and yea... Meh

Do the Wednesday games look off? Think grinder might have some of the matchups mixed up? Maybe it's too late for me ill look again in morning.

[Grinder12000]

Please not changes 95C S3 Cleveland 4.85 to win 4.41

[Grinder12000]

SAS2 Total Final Numbers up to 1/15/14

This includes ALL data from November 2nd to January 1st that were back filled using the same algorithm and then I added all posted results.

So basically these are the records if we had played this system from the beginning of the season.

BETS
"A" 92-68 57.5%
"B" 39-29 57.4%
"C" 19-8 70.4%

this was designed specifically as a 3 game chase - if we had "D" bets

"D" 1-6 14.2%

Total units won chasing +77.10
Total units won straight betting +34.50

What concerned me was the huge amount of wins with the "C" bets

If we made the "C" bets also 57.5%
Total units won chasing +44.69
Total units won straight betting +27.14

72 days, 98 total chases, 155 total plays

+0.78 units per chase
+0.22 units per straight bet

I suspect "C" plays could come back to 57% which means in the next 72 days "C" bets would be 11-15

IF this correction does happen and all other numbers stay the same
we would be up +12.28 units in the next 72 days CHASING
we would be up +19.4 units in the next 72 days STRAIGHT BETTING

Giving a 144 day total of 89.38 chasing
Giving a 144 day total of 54.3 straight betting

I just want people to know what they are getting into

And of course there is zero guarantee anything will stay the same at all.

[Grinder12000]

EX By the Numbers as of 1/14/14


BETS
"A" 51-38 57.3%
"B" 25-11 69.4%
"C" 5-3 62.5%

Total units won chasing +43.89
Total units won straight betting +23.80

If "B" bets were 57.3% and "C" bets were 57.3%

Total units won chasing +23.33
Total units won straight betting +14.32

I suspect "B" plays could come back to 57% which means in the next 72 days "B" bets would be 16-19

IF this correction does happen and all other numbers stay the same
we would be up +6.33 units in the next 72 days CHASING
we would be up +5.96 units in the next 72 days STRAIGHT BETTING

OR "B" could just hit 57% which is different then combining what we have and future games to = 57% if you get my drift.

I just want people to understand this ain't risk free profits - but as with SAS2 the upside is greater then the downside.

[voodoopulling]

Awesome stuff Grinder. Looks like an excellent system for chasers or straight bettors. Even with a C bet correction. Question for you not related to SAS2. You mentioned earlier in your thread about a RPI generator. I was thinking about creating one in excel to test different theories I have. Is yours an excel spreadsheet you created or is it a software package that does the calculations for you? Although I enjoy working with spreadsheets myself, if there was software that would do it for me at a fair cost I would definitely consider it. Thanks again, really enjoy following your thread.

[Mako-SBR]

We're starting to see a lot of duplicate system picks now in which multiple systems choose the same team to win.

Now that Grinder has the full season's worth of data for the newer systems, I wonder what the win percentage has been for teams chosen to win by two or more systems, like Golden State is tonight.

It's interesting, because straight bettors not doing the chase might want to double their bets on those particular games to take advantage of them...but again only if those duplicate picks have previously won at a higher rate this year versus the normal singular selections (i.e., the dupe winners come in significantly higher than 57-60%).

[Grinder12000]

VooDoo - I have purchased software I use. It's sold as some miracle game picker where you can make your own systems and back test them which is the most ridiculous thing you have ever seen. Makes absolutely no sense at all because it goes on the theory that if you accidentally put in some parameters and see it wins 60% it will continue to win 60%. It's a toy for losers.

HOWEVER!!! it's also a database that once you really understand the interface you can discover things.

It has RPI as one of the unique things it has. It does NOT have OT games. It's software created by people that REALLY don't understand what gamblers really need! Very Frustrating!! No OT games really????

Mako - I have the systems on separate spreadsheets but all dated. I bet I can copy all of them to one WIDE sheet and cross reference the picks. . . not overnight though LOL

I hope y'all are noticing I changed the order of the systems - it's a confidence thing.

Also - The O1 system - awesome for straight betting that 1st game - falls apart after that - I feel it should not be a chase system.

[Grinder12000]

01/16/14

All systems combined straight betting 201-160
All chases Tot 46.85u and treading water
all win and losses include games that cancel each other out

results
by far my worst day of the year
- Portland made three 3 pointers in the last 2 minutes while Cleveland missed 3

SAS2 30-21 +5.43u
35B SAS2 fade Charlotte Philadelphia 2.31 to win 2.10 WIN
##C SAS2 Golden State 4.85 to win 4.41 LOSE
##C SAS2 Cleveland 4.85 to win 4.41 LOSE

EX = 79-63 +10.89.46u
73C EX Golden State 4.85 to win 4.41 LOSE
81B EX San Antonio 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
82B EX fade LALakers Phoenix 2.31 to win 2.10 LOSE
84A EX Toronto 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE

S3,H3,O1 = 92-76 +30.52u
90C S3 Philadelphia 4.85 to win 4.41 WIN
95C S3 Cleveland 4.85 to win 4.41 LOSE
97A S3 Washington 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN
98A S3 Phoenix 1.10 to win 1.00 LOSE
99A O1 fade Phoenix LALakers 1.10 to win 1.00 WIN

Thursday

85A EX NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00
86A EX Indiana 1.10 to win 1.00

36A SAS2 fade Indiana NYKnicks 1.10 to win 1.00
##B SAS2 Atlanta 2.31 to win 2.10

Final

[miczz14]

are we playing Atl B bet at home? i think the game is in London