[Goat Milk]

I have won my last 9 or 10 straight nba threads and this is gonna keep the streak alive. I told everyone how Miami would win game 1 and in Paco's bet thread I told everyone to wait until game 2 to take Dallas because they are the more cerebral team and Rick is better with adjustments.

Everyone knows game 2 is the coaches game and not game 3. As I watched a rerun of game 2, I decided that there was no doubt in my mind Miami would win game 3.

The adjustments for Miami are pretty simple. I don't even expect anything out of Miami's bench in this game--I expect a massive game from Lebron and Wade. Lebron, particularly, was driving to the basket AT WILL during the course of game 1 and showed signs of it in game 2 before he started relying on his jump shot. James can blow by Marion at any time, literally. Marion had his moment in the last game. He will be a non factor in game 3 of this series and he will allow Lebron to get to the rim at will. It really is a much bigger mismatch than even I anticipated. The same thing with Wade. I knew Kidd and Stevenson would both guard Wade in this series, but RIck is playing with fire allowing Kidd to guard Wade during big possessions in the game. That will bite him in the ass next game--Kidd is stubborn- he is no where near the defender that Stevenson is, yet feels obligated to take on the challenge for some reason.

Dirk took a lot of poor shots in the first half, and quite frankly, he was disrupted by Joel Anthony and Haslem. Dirk really didn't even get going until the 4th quarter of last game, when the Heat started taking possessions off, letting Chalmers and Mike Miller take numerous shots in the 4th quarter. Additionally, D Wade took only 2 shots in the last 6 minutes of the game (both which were not quality looks). Lebron was being passive as well.

I predicted Bosh would be average at best in this series. So far he was 5/18 in game 1 and 4/16 in game 2. I knew Tyson Chandler would shut down Bosh. However, when Lebron and Wade dictate the pace right from the beginning of this game which I Know for a fact will happen, Chandler will slowly start to leave Bosh to help clog the paint and he'll get that midrange jumper all game. I expect him to go 9/16ish from the field and knock down that jumper. Mike Bibby played well in the last game and maybe he's finally found his rhythm.

Either way, game 3 is a starters game. This is gonna be just like game 3 last year when LA went into Boston and won. Bryant dropped around 40 in that game. The only people that stepped up were Bryant Gasol and Fisher for the most part. Its a starters game. Dallas' bench might play well but it won't matter.

Miami's defense was laughable in the last game. They gave only 80% in the 4th quarter. When they were trying, Dallas got a shot clock violation and 2 turnovers, before the team took it easy after that Wade 3 to put them up by 15. The thing is Dallas did not play as bad as people think. They have shot the ball well from 3 in both games, and Miami will smother Dallas's shooters in this game. This is an ALL OUT kind of game, and I'll take athleticism and defense over ball movement in a game of this intensity any day.

I expect Dallas to probably win game 4 and perhaps 5, but they are not winning game 3. Miami will come into Dallas and dominate this game from start to finish. Dallas will be trailing the entire game- you will see.

I'm going to be taking Miami ML but my guy isn't giving any spreads on the game until Sunday morning. I know for a fact he is leaning Heat and everyone on this site knows how sharp that guy is. If he doesn't have a good line I will play it at thegreek or BetOnline.

I don't need the 3 points, I'm gonna take the ML and I'll post it when I do. It will be for at least $400

[Karim]

u sir, underestimate momentum and the power of the dallas fans.

miami will just be blown away and start to wonder why they dont have such great fans in miami

also every player of dallas will be motivated big time, while miami is still not done witch hating themselves for game 2.

yes lebron and wade will have a big game, but batman and hulk won´t be able to beat dirkules, joker, spiderman, Amazing Man and Airman at once. Especially not in game 3, maybe game 4 or 5, but not this one.

[Goat Milk]

u sir, underestimate momentum and the power of the dallas fans.

miami will just be blown away and start to wonder why they dont have such great fans in miami

also every player of dallas will be motivated big time, while miami is still not done witch hating themselves for game 2.

yes lebron and wade will have a big game, but batman and hulk won´t be able to beat dirkules, joker, spiderman, Amazing Man and Airman at once. Especially not in game 3, maybe game 4 or 5, but not this one.

Karim, I do not underestimate Dallas at all. I am fully capable of what they can do. It's all in the adjustments. Miami will smother the perimeter. Dallas won't hit more than 6 threes in this game. Everyone knows game 3 is a starters game. Miami will win this game the same way Bryant went into Boston last year and dropped 40+ in game 3.

[plzkthx]

Heat will win the finals...whether its game 5 or game 7. Heat will win.

[MoYaL]

Dallas wins game 3 , heat was lucky with all of those 3's in the first 2 matches , they arent that good 3 point team .. Dallas are 3-1 against heat this season , If things will go right for the mavs they should win this one , thanks anyway .

[Bradyd]

Dallas wins game 3 , heat was lucky with all of those 3's in the first 2 matches , they arent that good 3 point team .. Dallas are 3-1 against heat this season , If things will go right for the mavs they should win this one , thanks anyway .

That means nothing. At one point, Boston was 3-1 and Chicago was 4-0 against the Heat...

[GunShard]

As long as the Heat stops celebrating early and focus on shooting. Then they can win game 3 and the rest of the series.

[Goat Milk]

same exact thing as last year

Doc is the better coach with adjustments, outsmarted phil in game 2 by exploiting Derrick FIsher on the defense end trying to guard ray allen off screens. Game 3 is a starters game, then game 4 goes back to a coaches game.

Same thing. Bryant drops 40+ in Boston. Miami won't lose control of this series. Good luck to all.

[politicin]

If not will you leave the forum?

[Sunde91]

Bryant scored 29 in game 3 not 40+ as stated twice http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=300608002

Your predicted adjustments are that Wade and James have massive games by driving? Oh dear if the Mavs got a hold of this

Heat shot near 100% over their playoff average from 3 (11 and 9 w/ 5.5 avg) with a bunch of wide open 3s that Dallas for sure fixes by correcting blown assignments. That's an adjustment.

Dallas bench has grossly underperformed (Peja 0 points, Barea 3-15, Terry no show til 4th) simply missed shots. They will hit these at home.

Dallas put an emphasis on rebounding in game 2 not yet seen. They win series if they keep it up and would have been blown out yesterday if not for it.

[Karim]

same exact thing as last year

Doc is the better coach with adjustments, outsmarted phil in game 2 by exploiting Derrick FIsher on the defense end trying to guard ray allen off screens. Game 3 is a starters game, then game 4 goes back to a coaches game.

Same thing. Bryant drops 40+ in Boston. Miami won't lose control of this series. Good luck to all.

i don´t think betting works like that

just because bryant dropped 40 points against boston , doesn´t mean lebron/wade will do the same with dallas. thats two whole different storys.

its like a rabbit and turtle having a race. the turtle wins.
and 1 year later a whole different rabbit and turtle run a race and u pick the turtle because last time it happened like that. i dont think such thinking is a good way to think about bets.

if kobe was playing for miami, ur 40 pt. argument would be somewhat ok,
if miami was playing against boston in game 3 u could use it aswell .. but u cant say that lebron will score 40 pts against dallas, because kobe did it against boston one year ago.

[Scorpion]

I think Peja will score over 10 points in game #3

[Scorpion]

I think dallas will win 2 of the next 3 games

[MoYaL]

That means nothing. At one point, Boston was 3-1 and Chicago was 4-0 against the Heat...

Ok , but Mavs is the better team . espcially @ home , and with the momentum after this huge comeback , they will take this one .
thats my pick .. good luck .

[lolbear]

decent analysis.. but a lot of this is unbacked. kidd took up the challenge obviously because rick plays terry over stevenson.

[politicin]

[sweethook]

If not will you leave the forum?

why ?? fukkin no hes not leaving win or lose , he knows more about this shit than you or most all on this site , you best put your $ on things he goes with and youl win more and want be so dam dum or ill , now gl

[politicin]

lmao goat is like 2 and 296 lifetime dweeb

[MB]

Everybody wants to be a negrodamus.

[jose21_us]

Miami will win game 3 for sure.

[William415]

i am putting 110 pts on mav ml. one of us bound to win.

[face]

I think Peja will score over 10 points in game #3

he plays a lot better at home, but they might not give him the ball much, he has been cold. a risky prop bet i think.

[bleek88]

gtfo with this guaransheed crap.

[DwightShrute]

[eberetta1]

Miami still celebrates too early. Hope they do not exit like the Lakers did. I am hoping Dallas is not hungry.

[djpremier36]

Every one of Goat's picks/predictions are about Miami and the Lakers...big whoopty doo!

It's like taking the 49er's in the 90's or the Oilers in the 80's and then bragging about it. It takes balls to take a team NOT full of superstars.

A word to the wise.

BOL!

[No coincidences]

What'd you think of Spoelstra down the stretch in Game 2 Goat?

[Goat Milk]

What'd you think of Spoelstra down the stretch in Game 2 Goat?

terrible

[bigp69]

Great analysis goatmilk thank you for this!

I Agree with you!

Tailing this, heat win game 3 and the title!

GL

[suicidekings]

The Game 1 writeup was a very fair assessment with a couple of points I disagreed with but understood your perspective. But in this one, I see a lot more bias in the opinions expressed.

So the Dallas bench doesn't warrant a mention, under the assumption that they'll be a non-factor for the entire series (despite being one of the most productive and involved benches in the NBA)? Miami will make adjustments but Dallas won't? And the best one... When Dallas doesn't play well it's because the Heat are too good, but when Miami doesn't play well it's because they're not trying? Give me a break...

All this crap about comparing this series to last year's playoffs and how the Lakers won Game 3 on the road is irrelevant. Why would Lakers/Boston from a year ago mean anything this year? Take it back further and in the previous 6 years (2004-09), the home team has gone 5-1 in Game 3 of the Finals (margins of victory = 4,6,20,2,17,-3). Make it a 10 year window and the home team has gone 5-5. So what?

The only thing this writeup is missing is a

That being said, the Heat might win this game, but it's not going to be a wire-to-wire no-doubter...

[Scorpion]

What'd you think of Spoelstra down the stretch in Game 2 Goat?

Its not his fault Wade and Lebron choked in the 4th and missed so many shots

[ShogunRua]

Another long, biased writeup from GM. What's new? BTW, you haven't won 9-10 in a row.

[GAMBLOR777]

I GUARANTEE that the almighty Goat will not put a cent on dallas this entire series.

Pure homer betting shrouded in biased statistics...

that is all.

[ShogunRua]

I GUARANTEE that the almighty Goat will not put a cent on dallas this entire series.

Pure homer betting shrouded in biased statistics...

that is all.

It's pretty obvious at this point what Goat will do.

1. If the Heat win - he will bump his threads and brag over and over again about how he was right.

2. If the Heat lose - He will disappear for a little while and when he comes back, will pretend like everything has been forgotten.

This isn't a theory. Check his threads/picks the last 3-4 months. He is in the red big time, but only replies when it is convenient.

[GAMBLOR777]

I've been a Heat fan since Wade arrived there. I followed him through his college career and I even knew about Wade when he was in high school. I want him to win a championship, but I look at everything unbiasley. I called LA winning the finals last year in 7, if you forget, and everyone knows I was a Miami fan but still picked Boston to win the series in the first round. Get your facts straight.

I swear this guy knows nothing of the NBA