1. 08-13-10 01:15 AM #1
    Optional
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    Sprint Cup 2010 - Carfax 400 - Michigan

    Hope you don't mind me starting the thread this week Onlooker.

    My handicapping model shows Jeff Gordon as head and shoulders above the rest as favorite, with Kurt Busch, Hamlin and Burton looking most likely to fight it out for 2nd.

    That's based almost purely on stats, and before we see practice/qualifying.
    Big change from last race when there was about 6 good chances.


    Here is the list of drivers who have better Qualifying and Race results at Michigan than their overall average. (first number is how much better they qualify, and second is how better their results are)

    Only 2 current chase drivers make the list this week;

    Logano 33% 43%
    Ragan 7% 18%
    Kahne 10% 18%
    Hamlin 4% 18%
    Reutimann 12% 15%
    Truex 24% 13%
    J Gordon 4% 11%
    Dale Jr. 15% 8%
    Sadler 10% 2%

    Michigan is also the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best track, results wise, for Edwards, Kenseth and Biffle respectively... but weirdly, it's near Edwards' worst track for qualifying, and below average for the other 2 as well.

    Based on my ratings the bookmakers have Johnson, Hamlin and Kyle Busch at least 50% below their true odds, but are offering over the odds on Burton, Stewart, Edwards and Montoya.

    Best value bet so far looks to be Dale Jr. at +4000, who I rate a +2000 chance. (I rate JG to win as a +900 chance by comparison)

    I also like the look of Kurt Bush's form here, and current form in general, so if he practices better than JG and Hamlin, I might end up backing him.

    All the Toyotas need to be kept safe too. Apart from Denny and Kyle, Logano has top 10s in his last 2 starts here, and both Truex and Reutimann have good personal records here.

    Unless Jimmie Johnson practices very well, I will likely lay against him, as he is so far under the odds.
    Last edited by Optional; 08-13-10 at 02:13 AM.
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  2. 08-13-10 04:06 AM #2
    SaviorTebow
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    I think all 3 Childress cars will be strong. And Jimmie Johnson will for sure be a contender on Sunday. With the possibility of this being a fuel mileage race, might be worth it to place a small wager on an underdog. Somebody like Truex with nothing to lose by staying out on low fuel trying to win.

    Wouldn't touch Gordon. He and Stewart are the most overvalued drivers in the sport. Wouldn't touch either with a 10 foot pole.
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  3. 08-13-10 04:24 AM #3
    Optional
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    I usually avoid Gordon like the plague too.

    Jimmie has 1 top 5 from his last 10 tries here. And could be thinking more about ensuring the team peaks for the chase than these last few races imho. He's always a genuine chance to win of course, but a +400 favorite seems out of proportion to me. maybe it's because the public sees a lack of other obvious chances to beat him this week I'm thinking.
    Last edited by Optional; 08-13-10 at 04:29 AM. Reason: added comment about Jimmie
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  4. 08-13-10 06:14 AM #4
    hawk 5
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    Well, here's for 10 foot poles, Gordon +1050 and Edwards +1500. Will add 2 more.
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  5. 08-13-10 07:45 AM #5
    rickie65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    My handicapping model shows Jeff Gordon as head and shoulders above the rest as favorite, with Kurt Busch, Hamlin and Burton looking most likely to fight it out for 2nd.
    I see Gordon and Edwards as my clear top 2. Logano my dark horse.
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  6. 08-13-10 11:36 AM #6
    Optional
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    Anyone else watching practice?

    Sounds like Biffle is looking like a potential contender off the truck.
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  7. 08-14-10 06:23 AM #7
    hawk 5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Anyone else watching practice?

    Sounds like Biffle is looking like a potential contender off the truck.
    At the moment he would have been a much better pick for me than Edwards. Still have 2 picks left, I missed bad on my 1st 2.
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  8. 08-14-10 12:55 PM #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawk 5 View Post
    At the moment he would have been a much better pick for me than Edwards. Still have 2 picks left, I missed bad on my 1st 2.
    Yeah, looks like Saviour's ten foot pole advice for Gordon might have been good after all. Although he did practice very well in Happy Hour, 3rd fastest and 4th best average times.

    I'm leaning toward the RCR guys now, like he said too.

    Burton is only +700 where I have money, but see him at +1500 and as high as +2800 at Skybet. I want a piece of that!
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  9. 08-15-10 03:12 AM #9
    SaviorTebow
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    I don't think Burton is worth 7-1 odds, but finding him at 15-1 is definitely good value.
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  10. 08-15-10 04:13 AM #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by SaviorTebow View Post
    I don't think Burton is worth 7-1 odds, but finding him at 15-1 is definitely good value.
    Agree. I have an offer up on Betfair to back him at 15-1, hopefully I'll get matched.

    I stuffed up though. I put a couple of early offers up on Gordon and Kurt Busch too, and forgot about them, so now I own win bets I don't really want on;

    Gordon +1200
    Kurt B +1050

    I might just try to lay them off at the same odds.
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  11. 08-15-10 07:02 AM #11
    Jay Price
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    I've thrown more coin at this race than usual. May toss another pick in there as the race gets nearer and more options become available. Here are my plays thus far:

    Jeff Gordon top 10 finish +130 (3.0 units)
    Jeff Gordon to win +2000 (1.0 units)
    K. Harvick top 5 finish +185 (2.0 units)
    J. Burton top 5 finish +185 (2.0 units)
    C. Bowyer top 10 finish -105 (2.0 units)
    Kasey Kahne over Greg Biffle -105 (1.0 units)
    Dale Earnhardt Jr. top 10 finish +330 (1.0 units)

    Good luck all.
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  12. 08-15-10 07:41 AM #12
    mart59a
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    Is Biffle worth a shot?
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  13. 08-15-10 08:33 AM #13
    Jay Price
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    Quote Originally Posted by mart59a View Post
    Is Biffle worth a shot?
    Heck yeah! Second favorite in most books right now. He's been on a super run of late.
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  14. 08-15-10 08:49 AM #14
    mart59a
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    Quote Originally Posted by dew22 View Post
    Heck yeah! Second favorite in most books right now. He's been on a super run of late.
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  15. 08-15-10 09:45 AM #15
    hawk 5
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    Just took The Biff at +850. Will add 1 more.
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  16. 08-15-10 10:38 AM #16
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by dew22 View Post
    Jeff Gordon top 10 finish +130 (3.0 units)
    Love that one. Like just about all your other plays too.



    Added Harvick +1300, Burton +1000 and a minimum bet on Dale Jr +5000.

    Also marvel at my huge steel balls... lay against Jimmie at +310
    Last edited by Optional; 08-15-10 at 10:43 AM.
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  17. 08-15-10 10:48 AM #17
    onlooker
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    I don't mind, just been busy. Thanks for starting it.

    Jimmie Johnson +415
    Greg Biffle +750
    Carl Edwards +1100
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  18. 08-15-10 11:32 AM #18
    hawk 5
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    Good get on JJ looker. I can't get anything decent on him so I'm passing. Harvick +1300 for my finale pick. GL all.
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  19. 08-15-10 11:35 AM #19
    hawk 5
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    1 more small wager, Kahn +3100 for 10$. What the hell.
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  20. 08-15-10 11:39 AM #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawk 5 View Post
    1 more small wager, Kahn +3100 for 10$. What the hell.
    Wow, that was definitely worth grabbing. He's under +1100 most places.
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  21. 08-15-10 11:41 AM #21
    Jay Price
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawk 5 View Post
    1 more small wager, Kahn +3100 for 10$. What the hell.
    Amazing price there! Great find.
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  22. 08-15-10 03:21 PM #22
    avssakic
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    Good job harvick backers!
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  23. 08-15-10 04:41 PM #23
    Jay Price
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    Congrats to the winners. Harvick could really carry a boatload of speed coming out of the corners. Impressive.

    I took a bit of beating with my bets after J. Gordon went down with a cut tire. He was coming on very strong, but alas, that Hendrick's crew have burned me badly the last three weekends whether directly or indirectly. They owe me! Outside the top three, that race shook out kind of weird the last 50 laps or so.

    Oh well, on to Bristol. The Bullring always provides some surprises. Again, congrats to the winners
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  24. 08-15-10 05:46 PM #24
    hawk 5
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawk 5 View Post
    Good get on JJ looker. I can't get anything decent on him so I'm passing. Harvick +1300 for my finale pick. GL all.
    cool
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