Thatguy's NRL Plays

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 20-1-19 -0.36

Round 7

Play #1
Roosters vs Dragons UNDER 37.5 1x 1.95
1 week's rest for the majority of the players in this game and 2x teams that have struggled to find the try line in the past. Dragons and seemingly incapable of putting on great back to back attacking plays and rely on defense.. similarly the Roosters have built their season around strong defense. PPG averages are high for the Roosters but don't expect a tryfest like we've seen the last few rounds, especially after 1 week break. Model has this game at 32 points and rolling the UNDER for 1x 1.95. GL

Play #2
Storm vs Warriors OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
A few books have moved this number up to 42.5 or higher.. suggest that 40.5 is a key number and would be a no play above that from mine. Warriors have been great at leaking points and with the attacking sting of the Storm expect that to happen on a grand scale today. The key is the average PPG figure for the Warriors against top 5 teams.. and it's pretty good. Expect we'll get at least 12+ points from the Warriors which should push this OVER. Model has it at 48pts and rolling the OVER 1x 1.95 in mostly fine conditions on the ground in Melbourne. GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 21-1-20 -0.41
Round 7 1-1
One up one down to start the round.. Dragons UNDER looked promising early but the UNDER was gone with only 5mins remaining.

Play #3
Sea Eagles vs Rabbitohs UNDER 36.5 1x 1.95
Sea Eagles have played average quality opposition in their first few rounds and have piled on the points.. but their stats against quality teams (top 5) are very ordinary - averaging only 14pts per game. Defense for Manly has been quality across the board and expecting a good ol' fashioned grindfest with a score in the 26-30pt range giving us some room to move. Rabbitohs defense has also been great and see no reason why a collapse would happen tonight.
Locking in the UNDER 1x 1.95. GL

[Crowing Capers]

Keep grinding TG. Hopefully you crack into positive units this round and start some winning momentum
BOL to you mate

[That Guy]

Keep grinding TG. Hopefully you crack into positive units this round and start some winning momentum
BOL to you mate

Cheers mate.. back into the positive units now - remainder of the round looks positive. GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 22-1-20 +0.54
Round 7 2-1

UNDER looked well and truly cashed after a low scoring round 1.. not even some crazy variance in the second half could kill the play. We grind on!

Play #4
Cowboys vs Raiders UNDER 42.5 1x 1.95
Two very lackluster sides face off tonight in Townsville - a venue that so far is proving to be much less than the fortress it was made out to be last year. Cowboys are yet to hit and OVER this year, while the Raiders have only hit 2x OVERS this season. Expecting this game to go thru the motions as both teams stick to what they know best - positional plays thanks to Thurston and Campese. If this game plays out thanks to the playmakers we have a VERY SOLID UNDER.
Model has this game at 36points and rolling 1x UNDER at 1.95. GL

No more plays tonight.. not seeing any value in Broncos vs Tigers match.

[Coopertrooper]

Great hit, a good round to start hitting back TG, was only a matter of time

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 23-1-20 +1.49
Round 7 3-1

Great round so far.. no time for writeups below. Apologies

Play #4
Sharks vs Bulldogs UNDER 38.5 2x 1.95

Play #5
Titans vs Knights UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95


Play #6
Sharks +2 vs Bulldogs 1x 1.95
Rare team play... but great value for a Sharks side that should win this ML. GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 25-1-21 +3.34
Round 7 5-2

Great weekend on the books so far . Disappointing to see a big lack of effort from the Sharks.. but totals model has been really firing and is 5-1 this weekend. 1 more play to come in a few hours time. GL

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 25-1-21 +3.34
Round 7 5-2

Play #8
Panthers vs Eels OVER 42.5 1x 1.95
The cellar dweller game of the round and doubt we'll see spectacular football on display tonight. Bad PPG figures for both sides but we should see more points on the back of ordinary defense both ways. Have this game at 48pts and rolling 1x OVER at 1.95
GL

[rjc]

Good call, champ!

[Crowing Capers]

Great round TG !!!
Cheers for the mail

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 26-1-21 +4.29
END Round 7 6-2

Great end to the round with the Panthers vs Eels game turning into a crapfest..

[bovholty]

Good round TG, excellent stuff

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 26-1-21 +4.29

Round 8
No time for writeups today unfortunately.. GL

Play #1
Broncos vs Rabbitohs UNDER 36.5 1x 1.95
Model at 32 for this game.. not much in it but Rabbitohs away from home avg is much lower whilst Broncos defense is improved. Rolling 1x UNDER for this game

Play #2
Bulldogs vs Tigers UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Had this game as a 2x play early but the unpredictable Tigers have it scaled back to 1x. UNDER looks very solid with PPG avg only pointing to an adjusted total of 32pts and goal kicking not a strong point for both sides so far this season.
Rolling 1x UNDER. GL

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Hodges out makes the Unders even more likely in Brisbane.

Not sure about the Dogs game though.
Hodgkinson didn't miss a kick last week and I have a feeling that with Graham back, it is only a matter of time before they put a score on someone.
The Tigers newbies will be vulnerable in defence, especially in the centres.
Bodene Thompson is a second rower playing in the centres and will most likely line up against Josh Morris, who is itching to turn on his afterburners after some indifferent form so far this year. I'm expecting Pritchard and Eastwood to do some damage on the edges and set up Barba and co with quality offloads.
Matt Utai will also cop a barrage of high balls tonight, given his suspect ability under the bomb.

[That Guy]

Adding:
Play #3
Storm vs Raiders OVER 44 1x 1.95
No time for a write up GL

[aussieH]

Over 42.5 at sportsbet ATM. Good luck all

[That Guy]

Over 42.5 at sportsbet ATM. Good luck all

Great number. Congrats!

[That Guy]

Adding:

Play #4
Warriors vs Titans OVER 36 2x 2.00
Not much time for a writeup.. Apologies. History of big overs for these sides and avgs have this match at 42pts. Rolling 2x OVER for this. GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 27-2-23 +4.29

Play #5
Dragons vs Sea Eagles UNDER 36.5 2x 1.95
Great value for a side that concedes only 10pts per game avg (Sea Eagles) and puts up 20ppg on average. Dragons will be keen to slow down the play and have this one grind out.. I actually think the Dragons have a good chance to nail this game and match up well against the Sea Eagles. Model has this one at 26pts and the lowest predicted total so far this year. Rolling the UNDER on this one 2x. GL

[Crowing Capers]

Done well to get 36.5 TG !
Had to settle for 35.5
Lets cash

[Domestic]

I had to settle for 36, good luck men.

[dRavidC]

good luck mate. with you on the under.

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 27-2-24 +2.29

Well that went against everything that was predicted... Dragons putting the most points on Sea Eagles with their average of letting up only 10ppg, yet Dragons have the worst attacking figures in the NRL. Damn
Not a complete loss of a week despite losing 2x on MNF

[fitguy67]

up 2.3u on less than 60u risked...4%-ish yield...

better than a sharp stick in the eye, i reckon

[That Guy]

up 2.3u on less than 60u risked...4%-ish yield...

better than a sharp stick in the eye, i reckon

Well.. when you look at it like that!

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 27-2-24 +2.29

Round 9

Play #1
Rabbitohs -9.5 vs Cowboys 1x 1.95
Have the Rabbitohs for a big win tonight at home. Cowboys record at ANZ and vs Rabbitohs is very poor.. model has the home side winning by at least 2-3 tries and rolling 1x on the Rabbitohs -9.5. GL

Play #2
Tigers vs Sharks UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
Sharks defense is on the improve and the Tigers are struggling to put any points together. The matchup tonight suggests a low scoring game around 30-34pts which makes it a 1x play for the UNDER.
GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 29-2-24 +4.19

Round 9 2-0
Great night on the books!

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 29-2-24 +4.19

Round 9 2-0

Play #3
Warriors vs Bulldogs UNDER 42 1x 1.95
Conditions in Wellington are extremely windy and should be very problematic tonight. Bulldogs will attempt to control the situational play and grind it away in the forwards. Even with loose defensive records for the Warriors and great attacking figures for the Bulldogs this one still falls UNDER without the weather on the model.
Rolling 1x UNDER 42 at 1.95 GL


Play #4
Eels vs Broncos OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Eels have focused on defense over the last few weeks and it's slowly been on the improve.. however I don't buy it. Tonight it breaks vs a fast moving side that will be willing to attack the fringes. Expect the Eels to play catchup after being pushed to the wall by the Broncos tonight - back to the last ditch Eels of old. Model has this one right on 39pts but think there is value in the OVER and rolling 1x 1.95
GL

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 30-2-25 +4.14

Round 9 3-1

Warriors vs Bulldogs UNDER was solid... only 2pts needed to cash the Broncos match but wasn't too be.
The slow grind continues! No crazy plays risking bankroll.. just a solid season of working into the +POS units.
GL

[That Guy]

Play #5
Titans vs Dragons OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
No time for a writeup. Loose play and two desperate teams. Model at 44. GL

[That Guy]

Adding:
Play #6
Sea Eagles vs Roosters UNDER 35.5 1x 1.95
Everything points to an UNDER at fortress Brookvale. Manly will be without Brett Stewart who is an aggressive attacking player. We have two of the best defensive sides in the competition facing off. Both teams are capable of rock solid defense and hopefully we see that today. Model is at 32pts on this one. GL

[sando]

I'm on it too mate, good luck.


I would say they are the two best defensive units in the game.

Roosters giving up 10.25 ppg
Sea Eagles giving up 11.5 ppg

The next best is the bunnies who are allowing 15.4 ppg.

I'm thinking/hoping something like a 18-12 scoreline in favour of the Roosters...?

[s2230011]

I agree with you guys ... but remember it is Monday night football .. Overs are specials in this timeslot.

I think Roosters would be safer ... Manly has been shaky and leaked some points against the Bunnies and conceded 4 tries to the Dragons too.

[the tross]

No logic to mnf . Fuking hate it. The dog and overs to cover for me. Bol.