AFL opening spreads

**Alt75** · 06-23-11, 09:25 PM

The team averages for per game add up to 183, probably not going to be too wet or windy to affect ball handling or scoring. So it is pretty spot on, looking to be a coin flip, Rioli named as FF, there will probably be lots of rotation in the Hawks forward line though depending on how the 1 on 1 matchups playout. How the Hawthorn goal contributors drop off outside the tall forwards is interesting, their small forwards, flankers and midfielders are averaging only around a goal a game despite two of the better forwards in the game to crumb off. Essendon will have to stop Hawthorns run from midefield/half back, as running out of their midfield/short passing leads to their small forwards is the Hawks main option for goals tonight.

Also the history/rivalry between these teams is a factor, even though Essendon have been on a poor trot lately, these kind of marquee rivalry games, poorer teams form wise can lift and they tend to play the man more than the ball. I think the total and margin basically is determined by if Essendon have given up/lost faith and don't show up to play and get run over or they have another "line in the sand" game.

**Gee** · 06-24-11, 03:18 AM

Loving the discussion in this thread guys.

Not going to cap this weekend - haven't looked at a thing this week. I would basically be throwing darts. I'm back Tuesday for good.

That being said, will play hawks/Bulldogs/pies parlay for 1.5x, one leg at a time though, so not sure what it's paying.

**SoV** · 06-24-11, 04:28 AM

Yer twat, hope you're enjoying you're well deserved vacation. On Bombers spread tonight.

**Alt75** · 06-24-11, 06:15 AM

Bombers have well and truly bombed. Down by 61 at HT. Hopefully the Bombers can do what the Swans did last week and scrape it back under 40.

Well called on em sharing the goals around Lookingtostart, 10 individual goalkickers by HT for the Hawks.

Enjoy the rest of your holiday Gee, without your sage advice we're probably all gonna end up broke this weekend.

**SoV** · 06-24-11, 06:46 AM

**Lookingtostart** · 06-24-11, 08:55 AM

Thanks Alt75

I like Hawthorn's underrated players, I have huge respect for some of them and they play well together as an entire unit.

**Alt75** · 06-24-11, 07:31 PM

Credit where its due, Sir

Aside last week against the Suns the last time I saw them play was the round they played Port off the bye and they were damn awful, their hand and foot skills were excellent last night. As one of the commentators said they made Essendon look like a bottom 4 side.

I need to get the $10 I lost last night and the $5 I lost on SNG's on Thursday night back today.

Leans for AFL
Tigers SU
Bulldogs to cover
Freo to cover
Pies 1-39

**sportscash** · 06-24-11, 09:32 PM

Good luck today i had a good start backing Phoenix in the WNBA

hoping to increase my roll later on.

**Alt75** · 06-24-11, 09:42 PM

I'll need it. What were the odds on Phoenix?

Totals are up for both of this afternoons games. Sportingbet opened both at 196.5, same at Sportsbet for Tigers v Demons, Sportsbet has Suns vs Dogs 200.5 though.

**brumbies** · 06-25-11, 12:47 AM

is geelong's 12 match unbeaten streak the best start in afl history?

**Alt75** · 06-25-11, 01:01 AM

Nope. Collingwood won 18/18 in the 30's or so, 2000 season Essendon won 20 straight and lost in round 21 to Bulldogs, beat Collingwood in RD 22 and went on to win Grand Final.

**NEW_WORLD** · 06-25-11, 01:38 AM

good luck with your plays today

**donkson** · 06-25-11, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by brumbies

is geelong's 12 match unbeaten streak the best start in afl history?

lol wat

**Gee** · 06-25-11, 09:43 PM

Nice work guys. Sorry about your loss sov.

Gotta check out soon so throwing a few darts (and looked over a few things, but not comfortable doing it here - feels off). Cats tt o114.5 and eagles +27.5. 1x each.

Cash my 1.5x parlay at +120. Wooop!

**Pride** · 06-25-11, 11:54 PM

eagles are gonna win SU.

blues are very weak today

**Alt75** · 06-26-11, 12:30 AM

Cats have covered the TT, well done Gee, Eagles looking good too.

Thinking of taking Eagles live, thanks for the tip on bet365 Gee, the in play section is awesome!

Damn Carlton are coming back, fortunately I didn't lay a live bet! I also realised I forgot to finalise Carlton 1-39 as a single bet before closing.

**NEW_WORLD** · 06-26-11, 12:45 AM

thanks for nice thread

**Brian891** · 06-26-11, 01:09 AM

i am thinking of placing a small ml bet on north melbourne. this has to be considered a must win for them doesnt it? since 0-5 start they r 5-2 with a 10 goal win over port. in form right now. anyopinions agreeing or to the contrary would be appreciated. thanks guys!

**Alt75** · 06-26-11, 01:28 AM

North should win SU. Port did ok last week though against the Eagles and it's a home game for Port so they could make a game of it.

**Brian891** · 06-26-11, 01:33 AM

thanks alt. i skipped it and will just sit back and hope it is enjoyable. swept bellator fights and boxing along with yanks in baseball, even with missing reds and tigers because i was at dinner. best day in a long time. no need to let greed get the best of me!

**Pride** · 06-26-11, 01:52 AM

good call. the line was weird to me and i dont think north wins today.

power +13.5 for me

**Alt75** · 06-26-11, 01:57 AM

Originally posted by Brian891

thanks alt. i skipped it and will just sit back and hope it is enjoyable. swept bellator fights and boxing along with yanks in baseball, even with missing reds and tigers because i was at dinner. best day in a long time. no need to let greed get the best of me!

You're welcome, nice to hear you had a good day

hehe Greed always gets the best of me! I didn't bother to watch/bet on Bellator, no value on Mann/Curran/Sandro and didn't wanna risk em in a multi, the events been posted I may download it and see how the fights went.

If it's only a small play it should be ok, hate to give you the green light on a play and it go awry though. I've taken North 1-39, it's another one of those games can go either way. Side v Side North should win without too much resistance, Port being Port could get the upset or get horribly blown out. Not as likely as home but this year you can't tell. Cats to cover -39.5 / -45.5 was the safest play of the day imo.

**Alt75** · 06-27-11, 01:30 AM

Next weeks games from Centrebet, stupid firefox cache.

**donkson** · 06-27-11, 02:07 AM

Geelong line looks alright, apart from that nothing appeals to me.

**Alt75** · 06-27-11, 02:56 AM

First glance my leans would be: Melbourne SU/line, Carlton, Collingwood, Freo, Brisbane, Swans 1-39, North SU/points

Essendon v Geelong is at Etihad too, Cats thumped them there last year 154-83 sterile conditions could lead to another Cats rout, problem with Essendon is one week they're likely going to bounce back when they realise they need to perform or be traded/cut, probably wont beat Geelong but they could cover the + in a slow paced game. They have the talls to defend Podsiadly, but clearly not the class through the midfield. How would you guys compare Geelong and Essendon for pace through midfield/flanks?

I really should download each game I don't see to flick through and start analysing teams and players properly.

**Gee** · 06-28-11, 06:28 PM

Thanks for that.

Interestingly, I noticed the ML on the Bulldogs/Demons game opened at a PK, now its -2.5 Melbourne. Melb have been so inconsistent, but they have been great the last fortnight.

Nothing else looks too appealing. I know I say this early every week, but there may not be that many plays from me.

Anyway, here is the breakdown of the last fortnight while I've been away. Nice to come out of holiday a few hundred up.

**Alt75** · 06-28-11, 09:39 PM

No probs and nice work, oh don't need to give me points Gee for posting the opening lines. I'm happy to post em if I'm around on a Monday arvo to contribute/discuss em. I don't know when I'm going to get round to going pro. When I start winning enough to make a $200+ withdrawal to sign up at pinny. My estimate is 2023.

**donkson** · 06-29-11, 01:53 AM

Agree 100% about Melbourne, loving the dogs drifting out. Melbourne have a lot to prove away from the MCG, and really they still haven't beaten anyone decent.

The quality of the Dogs worries me a bit but I really think their small forward line will cause some problems.

**Gee** · 06-29-11, 02:25 AM

Agreed Donkson.

The shitness of the Dogs and Saints this year have been tough to adjust to. I always hate betting against good sides, but I think the time has come where we can rate them both as mediocre at best. Saints less so... but they don't seem to be able to play 4 quarters.

I will, in all likelihood, have a small play on Melb... but there is a lot I still need to look at. Can I bet on them away from the G? maybe not... hrm.

Alt: lol, you'll get to pro and withdraw $200.00 a lot quicker than you think. You can learn a lot quickly in this game if you are smart and have a clue, which I think you do. At least you seem to have the MM side of things figured out, which is a big plus. The picking winner part is a lot easier

I don't mind giving points - I hardly use mine and its good to have a reference here if I forget to email myself with any moves and my notes. I'm really a bit lost this week as I didn't watch much of any of the games on the weekend... AFL is a game you really need to watch a lot of to cap properly IMO.

**Alt75** · 06-29-11, 07:21 AM

Cheers, well they are appreciated.

I've been using mine for mid week tennis/mlb bets and some fights I'm not keen on for a $ bet. When I go pro if I can eventually accumulate a heap for a high end prize like lappy or tv it would be nice, but not a priority.

Yeah burning my bankroll in a day ain't a problem and I know can cap the sports I follow decently, just regularly making sensible, winning bets is what I have to get down pat. Learnt a lot here if I put it into practice I'm sure I'll do well. I just have a self deprecating sense of humour and know not to get too cocky touting my plays etc.

Melbournes record at Etihad/Docklands

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http://stats.rleague.com/afl/teams/melbourne/allgames_vn.html#34

Very worrying. At first I was leaning Melbourne but I'm undecided on it now, would hate for that trend to sting you as well as Melbourne's up and down form.

Anyhoo I was doing some detective work and found this site you can download all the games Quarter by Quarter from here.

http://spekyselector.webs.com/spekyv5.html

It's better to use the "save link as" and save the .mp4 instead of waiting for it to buffer in the window, low quality is 172kbps, about 40mb per Quarter bit pixelated. Watching Carlton v West Coast now, downloaded the 1 mbps high quality Q2 now. 240mb MP4. This is perfect!

**hedgejob** · 06-30-11, 07:09 PM

Howdy Gee, long time. Good to see you kicking ass.

**Gee** · 06-30-11, 08:29 PM

Hey hedgejob. Yeah its been a while.

Haven't seen you around for a bit... Hope you are doing well.

Struggling a bit finding a play for tonight... A lot of things, EXCEPT the line movement points to the bulldogs tonight. The more I look at it though, I'm 85% sure I'll take the bulldogs.

Alt: good find! I use foxtel IQ to record most games as well as the winners and the talk shows for the breakdowns... Its fair to say i get my AFL fix. I miss foxfooty where you got EVERYTHING 24/7... i think its on its way back in though.

**donkson** · 06-30-11, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by Alt75

http://spekyselector.webs.com/spekyv5.html

That's awesome thanks, 2010 is still on there too if you change the end to spekyv4

**Pride** · 06-30-11, 10:43 PM

tbh you can blame the line movement on people looking at the teams records and betting accordingly

**Gee** · 06-30-11, 10:49 PM

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the public are all over Melb, so it doesn't worry me that much.

Bulldogs +4.5 (2x) locked in. I may add another half unit closer to game time depending on late movement.

edit: line moved to 4.5 before I bet it. I still haven't bet it, but I will regardless of where its at. For some reason its OTB at Iasbet. I just wanna cash in on some $2 lines this week.

2nd edit: got it now. $100 was a freebet, $100 was mine. so 2x total.