Originally Posted by
Coopertrooper
Play #1 - Carlton/Collingwood Under 170.5, $1.88 X 2 units (Sportsbet)
The rivalry between these 2 has produced some high-scoring games in recent times. However, the factors that caused this were wild swings within some quarters, which brought about high scoring quarters (Both games last year had at least 1 quarter where more than 10 goals were scored), good weather and the goal-kicking hauls from Walker, Yarran, Garlett, Cloke and Reid. This time, the game appears like it will be more consistently one-sided, the weather will be cold (with a forecast of some rain) and of the mentioned players are unlikely to kick a bag. Walker has not kicked a goal in 5 outings this year, not playing in a forward role. Yarran appears in doubt with injury and does not play forward very often nowadays. Garlett may be finding some form, with 3 goals last week. Cloke is out of form, with goalless games and a greasy night not set to help. Reid is still injured and won't play. Combine the lack of firepower from previous years with the weather and what looks like being a more dour game, and the under looks the play, despite the low number. Risking 2 units here.