[laxbrah420]

Anybody know expected value on show betting heavy favorites where the $2.10 law needs to kick in? Say, for horses that are 1/4 and more? Seems rare that these horses come out of the money, but is it more than 5% of the time?

[JakeLc]

There are a couple of places where the minimum is $2.20

[wtt0315]

its call bridge jumping i wouldnt recommend it. its like betting a -1000 nba team. They decide to be lazy and not show up and you. I see 1-5 favorites not come in the money quite a bit. bad jump out of box or they get to finish and realize they cant win and pull it. its not worth it

[robmpink]

If you bet offshore and get a hefty rebate it could be $$$$.

[JakeLc]

I'm not advocating bridge- jumping but saying 1-5 horses miss the board often is a bit of a reach.

[aggieshawn]

$2.10 to win horses win at 92% clip. $2.20 to $3.00 win at roughly 78%.
So the math says you can make money betting win but not to Show. As these heavy favorites are only in the money 88% of the time.
You lose money betting to show. This can way better if you know how to handicap and miss the false favorites.

[DaHoss]

you have to win 19 out of 20 bets if betting for a 2.10 show ticket ill play against a bridge jumper any time

[laxbrah420]

$2.10 to win horses win at 92% clip. $2.20 to $3.00 win at roughly 78%.
So the math says you can make money betting win but not to Show. As these heavy favorites are only in the money 88% of the time.
You lose money betting to show. This can way better if you know how to handicap and miss the false favorites.

I think youre confused since any winning horse also takes the show. $2.10 to win can even have better than 2.10 show in some cases.

Looks like Xpressbet actually considered shutting down a bridge-jumper's account (barry meadow) because they were having to pay the "negative breakage". If sites want to shut these guys down --the strategy must be relatively effective.

[aggieshawn]

I have never, ever seen a $2.10 win horse pay $2.20 to show for any track with a reasonable pool.
Even the biggest entry that comes in. If they pay $2.10 to win again I have never seen a $2.20 show with it.
ie $2.10 $2.20 $2.20 pay line.

[laxbrah420]

I have never, ever seen a $2.10 win horse pay $2.20 to show for any track with a reasonable pool.
Even the biggest entry that comes in. If they pay $2.10 to win again I have never seen a $2.20 show with it.
ie $2.10 $2.20 $2.20 pay line.

That's fine but it happens all the time though. It can even be bigger --at AC yesterday, eldaafer was a lock and paid $2.60, $3, $2.80 in the 7th race.

[laxbrah420]

but mostly your point was strange to say that $2.10 wins 92% of the time so therefore show betting is not profitable only win betting is. That just plainly makes no sense.

[aggieshawn]

Show betting for $2.10 horses needs to clarified for my part of the discussion. Are these betting to show $2.30 win horses or $4.00 win horses. They both generally pay $2.10 to show.

[sq764]

I have never, ever seen a $2.10 win horse pay $2.20 to show for any track with a reasonable pool. Even the biggest entry that comes in. If they pay $2.10 to win again I have never seen a $2.20 show with it. ie $2.10 $2.20 $2.20 pay line.

it happens... check out mountaineer, suffolk.. both have 2.20 show minimums.. ive seen 2.10 2.10 2.20 WPS..

[sq764]

Show betting for $2.10 horses needs to clarified for my part of the discussion. Are these betting to show $2.30 win horses or $4.00 win horses. They both generally pay $2.10 to show.

even money horses rarely pay $2.10 to show.. unless there is a 4 horse field

[laxbrah420]

Somebody must have some backlogs. Let's qualify this experiment as horses who go off to win at 1/9 at American non-harness tracks... at what clip do those horses finish in the money?

[wtt0315]

ok very small sample but i look at a couple tracks today. i am looking at even or lower on showing.

belmont
race 1 2 even finished out of money
race 9- 8 4/5 finished out of money

calder race 1-----2 3/5 2.10 to show
2-----7 4/5 2.20 to show
4 8 4.5 2.20 to show
9 1 even 6 horse field still finish out of money

charles town
3 2 even finished out of money
7 4 3/5 220 to show
its just not enough risk reward for me to do this
i guess you could pick your spots but to dangerous for me

[no.1cards]

2008 Tampa Bay derby was a 7 horse field with close to $1,000,000 in the show pool on war pass the 1-9 favorite to win. I remember seeing the show pool so I decided to put $2 to show on the other six horses. Betting War Pass wouldn't hit the board, well he didn't.


March 15, 2008 - 12th Race – Tampa Bay
6 Big Truck $16.40 $5.80 $25.20
7 Atoned $6.60 $27.80
5 Dynamic Wayne $76.40
4 Make Me Zach
$2 Exacta 6-7 paid $64.80
$2 Trifecta 6-7-5 paid $439.20
$1 Superfecta 6-7-5-4 paid $914.10

Not a bad bet, a $129 return. I always look for heavy favorites to bet against in the show pool.

[sq764]

Ive seen $100+ show prices on really bad bridge jump fails.. its always worth a shot to take a chance against.

[Brewers in 7]

Bridgejumping is not a good idea, jockeys are way too crooked to be trusted to hit the board on a 1-9 shot..

[powerhouse]

Not worth the risk...IMHO...

[sq764]

Bridgejumping is not a good idea, jockeys are way too crooked to be trusted to hit the board on a 1-9 shot..

if you think jockeys are crooked why do you play horses at all?

[gjetson]

I ran a couple of simple models on this maybe a year ago... I was trying to find it but I think I may have deleted it... I found that betting the favorite at odds at or below 2:1 and lower had a negative ROI over all. I then created a model where the favorite was less than or equal to 2:1 and the second favorite was minimum 1.5:1 higher than the favorite, so 2:1 vs. min 3.5:1/1:1 vs 2.5:1, etc... the result wasn't as negative of an ROI but it was still negative... It honestly did vary from track to track and sometimes the ROI was positive, but overall it was a losing bet... and long run you'll lose.

The longer I play horses the more I think what I've probably lost if I tallied up the 20some years I've been playing would total whatever the house takeout is. I love hitting a $1500 pick 4, but the reality is it probably took me $1725 in pick 4 bets to do it.... etc... but it is fun, and I love to sit around with my friends, have a few beers, yell at some horses, and raz my friends when my horse beats theirs... and try to find excuses when theirs beats mine... love it and it's worth whatever the long run loss is.

Bottomline, there is no forumla to win, if there was someone would have found it already... you will lose, it's like every form or gambling, just have fun doing it... or buy the track: Churchill is CHDN on the nasdaq.

[Art Vandeleigh]

Bottomline, there is no forumla to win, if there was someone would have found it already... you will lose, it's like every form or gambling, just have fun doing it... or buy the track: Churchill is CHDN on the nasdaq.

Ha ha buy the track, solid advice. Btw George Jetson, how's your daughter Judy looking nowadays

[JakeLc]

Somebody must have some backlogs. Let's qualify this experiment as horses who go off to win at 1/9 at American non-harness tracks... at what clip do those horses finish in the money?

I have about 45k races in my database
horses who went off at 1/9-1/5
win 72% ROI .84/1.00
wps 93% ROI.99/1.00

[Thunder Gulch]

Dr. Z's system capitalizes on inefficiencies in the show and place pools. Everyone always claims to bet against the favorites, but they show how strong favorites to p/s are among the best bets at the track when the pools aren't balanced.

[JakeLc]

same data base
post time chalk

win 36% ROI .83/1.00
wps 71% ROI.90/1.00

it gets bumped up slightly if you eliminate turf racing

[gtkid911]

What track was this database comprised from. Could differ from track to track

[JakeLc]

all Equibase recognized tracks in USA and Canada

[ATP123]

happens everyday, 1-9 blows up somewhere and not just once

[zebra58]

If you bet offshore and get a hefty rebate it could be $$$$.

good thought but chalk place & show bets are excluded from rebates

[sq764]

good thought but chalk place & show bets are excluded from rebates

not at us based adws...

[mr.inpak]

if your going to do it you have to do it in massachusetts west virginia or iowa the minimum payouts are 2.20

[sunshine11]

At Charlestown yesterday a 3/5 favorite finishes 4th. Ran 2nd early on and faded wasn't even close for third. I have a sure thing today. Lol

[sunshine11]

For fun only. See how many I can win out of 20 plays.

First bridge jumper play

Charles. Race #1
Horse #4 20,000 show 8/5 ML
Only 6 horses in race. 3 are longshots. How do I not win? Jockey falls off? Lol

[sunshine11]

There are a couple of places where the minimum is $2.20

Yes charlestown, mountaineer and prairie meadows. Suffolk downs used to.