[JBEX]

oaklawn R10 the rebel

#8 silver dust (15-1)

main thing I like is he's a tapit and they can turn into anything..able to break maiden in 2nd start breaking from the rail in a one turn mile at CD which is pretty impressive. .even effort from the rail last out in the smarty jones off a 3 month layoff would serve as a good primer and back in 4 weeks for today's..workouts leading up to his last race over this course were outstanding. .could see a good effort here today at a decent mutuel



If you like the 8, wouldn't you like the 11-Looking at Lee more? Both 15-1, and Lee competed against some pretty good companies last year as a 2yr old.

figured I'd answer in here..basically I'm looking for things I feel are undervalued and relevant IMO..they're not spending 300k on tapit for nothing..winning at a mile from the rail in a big field at CD as a 2yo good sign..also feel that sometimes they might not want to drain the horse first start as a 3yo and just get some conditioning especially in the first leg of the series of derby preps at a major track

[mrginandtonic]

DRF Race of the Day : Kentucky Oaks

A very interesting race on paper, the 4-Paradise Woods (trained by one of my favorite, Mr. Richard Mandella and ridden by one of the hottest rider in the nation, Flavien Prat) has this monster Beyer figure of 107 in the last race and she is ML favorite at 5-2. The second favorite is the 10-Miss Sky Warrior @ 9-2 who won the Gazelle by 13 lengths with 94 Beyer. Yes, if Paradise runs back to anything close to her last race, I have no doubt she will destroy this field. I guess the question is will she? But when I looked closer to this race, most of the horses are very weak, and most has only 1 or 2 Beyer speed figures that is above 85 (including the favorite). This then made me think that Paradise may not be a "lock" after all and hence the ML is 5-2, instead o like 9-5 or 8-5. So I am gonna go with a couple more for the top honor. I like 3-Mopotism (20-1) and the 7-Farrell (5-1), both of these horse has good tactical speed and I like their mud pedigree. Think my ticket would be something like :

Tri: 3,4,7/ 3,4,7,13,14/ 1,3,6,7,10,13,14

Will also do some Pick 3 Pick 4 and of course the Oaks/Derby Double

As always, feel free to chime in on the discussion,GL all.

[harthebar]

DRF Race of the Day : Kentucky Oaks

A very interesting race on paper, the 4-Paradise Woods (trained by one of my favorite, Mr. Richard Mandella and ridden by one of the hottest rider in the nation, Flavien Prat) has this monster Beyer figure of 107 in the last race and she is ML favorite at 5-2. The second favorite is the 10-Miss Sky Warrior @ 9-2 who won the Gazelle by 13 lengths with 94 Beyer. Yes, if Paradise runs back to anything close to her last race, I have no doubt she will destroy this field. I guess the question is will she? But when I looked closer to this race, most of the horses are very weak, and most has only 1 or 2 Beyer speed figures that is above 85 (including the favorite). This then made me think that Paradise may not be a "lock" after all and hence the ML is 5-2, instead o like 9-5 or 8-5. So I am gonna go with a couple more for the top honor. I like 3-Mopotism (20-1) and the 7-Farrell (5-1), both of these horse has good tactical speed and I like their mud pedigree. Think my ticket would be something like :

Tri: 3,4,7/ 3,4,7,13,14/ 1,3,6,7,10,13,14

Will also do some Pick 3 Pick 4 and of course the Oaks/Derby Double

As always, feel free to chime in on the discussion,GL all.

EXACTLY .......WHY IS THAT 5/2 THAT IS A BIG LINE IN MY IMO 8/5 SOMEWHERE IN THIS RACE THERE MIGHT BE A SPECIAL HORSE...NOW WE HAVE TO FIND HER...NOT SAY PARADISE WONT WIN.....BUT.........................WHAT I DONT GET WHEN SHE WON HER MSW ON 3/11 SHE WAS 4/5 THEN SHE CAME BACK ON 4/8 IN THE OAKS AT 8-1 AND KICKED BUTT SEEMS WHEN YOU KNOW YOU HAVE THAT SPECIAL HORSDE YOU WOULD OF KNOWN IT ON 3/11 SO HOW DOES SHE COME BACK AT 8 TO 1 I KNOW THE FIELD WERE THE BEST OF THE BEST ...Abel Tasman SALTY,Daddys Lil Darling

[mrginandtonic]

EXACTLY .......WHY IS THAT 5/2 THAT IS A BIG LINE IN MY IMO 8/5 SOMEWHERE IN THIS RACE THERE MIGHT BE A SPECIAL HORSE...NOW WE HAVE TO FIND HER...NOT SAY PARADISE WONT WIN.....BUT.........................WHAT I DONT GET WHEN SHE WON HER MSW ON 3/11 SHE WAS 4/5 THEN SHE CAME BACK ON 4/8 IN THE OAKS AT 8-1 AND KICKED BUTT SEEMS WHEN YOU KNOW YOU HAVE THAT SPECIAL HORSDE YOU WOULD OF KNOWN IT ON 3/11 SO HOW DOES SHE COME BACK AT 8 TO 1 I KNOW THE FIELD WERE THE BEST OF THE BEST ...Abel Tasman SALTY,Daddys Lil Darling

Glad we are thinking the same way. Paradise could be a vulnerable favorite. Hart, who do like on the Derby, I'm trying to do the Oaks/Derby double, but can't really come up with anything.

[harthebar]

Glad we are thinking the same way. Paradise could be a vulnerable favorite. Hart, who do like on the Derby, I'm trying to do the Oaks/Derby double, but can't really come up with anything.

Ballagh Rocks if your doing pick 3 derby still looking at it....LOOKING AT LEE POST NOT GOOD....BUT I THINK ....HE WILL JUST STAY ON RAIL AND TAKE HIM BACK.........SAVE GROUND., Battle of Midway GORMLEY Irap ...I CANT PLAY THE FAVORITES....THINK ITS WIDE OPEN

[harthebar]

oday - 03:42 PM

Online Gaming

Oaks Woodford Derby P3

R2

$0.50

Pick 3

R2: 12-14 R3: 12 R4: 1,13,16,18

[mrginandtonic]

Ballagh Rocks if your doing pick 3 derby still looking at it....LOOKING AT LEE POST NOT GOOD....BUT I THINK ....HE WILL JUST STAY ON RAIL AND TAKE HIM BACK.........SAVE GROUND., Battle of Midway GORMLEY Irap ...I CANT PLAY THE FAVORITES....THINK ITS WIDE OPEN

Thanks for the heads up. Gonna do the Pic 3

3,4,7/ 12/ 2,5,11,13,16,17,18 for $10.50

[harthebar]

Thanks for the heads up. Gonna do the Pic 3

3,4,7/ 12/ 2,5,11,13,16,17,18 for $10.50

G.L.

[mrginandtonic]

G.L.

Tks, you too.

[harthebar]

EXACTLY .......WHY IS THAT 5/2 THAT IS A BIG LINE IN MY IMO 8/5 SOMEWHERE IN THIS RACE THERE MIGHT BE A SPECIAL HORSE...NOW WE HAVE TO FIND HER...NOT SAY PARADISE WONT WIN.....BUT.........................WHAT I DONT GET WHEN SHE WON HER MSW ON 3/11 SHE WAS 4/5 THEN SHE CAME BACK ON 4/8 IN THE OAKS AT 8-1 AND KICKED BUTT SEEMS WHEN YOU KNOW YOU HAVE THAT SPECIAL HORSDE YOU WOULD OF KNOWN IT ON 3/11 SO HOW DOES SHE COME BACK AT 8 TO 1 I KNOW THE FIELD WERE THE BEST OF THE BEST ...Abel Tasman SALTY,Daddys Lil Darling

Ran 1 2 and 5th. Still alive in pick 3. Oak derby woodward

[mrginandtonic]

Ran 1 2 and 5th. Still alive in pick 3. Oak derby woodward

Good call, Hart, hope you win that Pick 3. I don't know know why I forget Baffert/Smith.

[harthebar]

Good call, Hart, hope you win that Pick 3. I don't know know why I forget Baffert/Smith.

Thanks. Me too. Look at 1. Tell me what you think I know the 1 is not a good post here. But he will just drop back

[mrginandtonic]

Thanks. Me too. Look at 1. Tell me what you think I know the 1 is not a good post here. But he will just drop back

Sorry Hart, just saw this. I agree with you that he will drop back and save ground on the rail and make that one run. I don't know if he will be fast enough or the pace is hot enough for that late run. I said it earlier in this thread that the Derby winner will not come from horses that was in the Rebel so I'm gonna stick with that. With that said, I wont be surprised if he wins because this race is a mystery to me. I'm gonna bet $5 win bet and all the ML that is 20-1 and just gonna sit back and enjoy the Derby this year. GL to you and I'm rooting for you on that Pick 3, it's gonna be juicy.

[mrginandtonic]

DRF Race of the Day: Kentucky Derby 2017

Well, gonna be honest. I have looked at this form for a few days now and I still have no clue or who is the most likely winner. As I have said earlier in this thread, I don't believe the winner winner will be from the Rebel so I'm gonna stick with that. I even think the 2- Thunder Snow has a good chance. My bet will be $5 win bet on all 20-1 ML horses. GL all. As usual, any comment and discussion are always welcome.

[harthebar]

DRF Race of the Day: Kentucky Derby 2017

Well, gonna be honest. I have looked at this form for a few days now and I still have no clue or who is the most likely winner. As I have said earlier in this thread, I don't believe the winner winner will be from the Rebel so I'm gonna stick with that. I even think the 2- Thunder Snow has a good chance. My bet will be $5 win bet on all 20-1 ML horses. GL all. As usual, any comment and discussion are always welcome.

ouch....im clue less too, but i was looking at the 1 looking at lee..... and he was in the rebel .......but he is over 20-1

[mrginandtonic]

ouch....im clue less too, but i was looking at the 1 looking at lee..... and he was in the rebel .......but he is over 20-1

His ML is also 20-1, so I also put $5 to win

[mrginandtonic]

Why is Pletcher's other horse - Patch has bet down to 13-1 from 30-1 with 33 minutes to post time.

[harthebar]

It's a good question. That's a lot of money. In the derby. ..... to much for the general public to just decide. . .I think it's a stateen from the connections. Saying our his is in better shape than you know....but again. Most connections think there horse is great...not all. Because I have to believe a few put there horses in. Just to have that once in a lifetime chance.....look.at exact Poole. See if there a little out of whack......but who needs them at 15 to 1

[mrginandtonic]

DRF Race of the Day- Race 10/ The Belmont Derby Invitational @ 1 1/4 mile on Turf

What a competitive field, I mean anyone of these can win. The experts @ DRF pick 7- Yoshida (Matt's pick) and 3- Homesman (Dan's pick). The key points that I have is what will the pace be? and which one can take 1 1/4 distance? With a few Euro invaders, we can only guess at the pace. My guess is that there should be decent pace, I don't believe it will be a crawling scenario. With 11 horses signed up, there is probably a lot of traffic for the tactical and closers to overcome. With that said, I think this race is more of a jockey race. Who can steer out of trouble and give the best ride. My picks are: 9- Big Score (with Prat) 20-1, 2- Ticonderoga (with Castellano) 15-1, 6- Arklow (with Smith) 8-1. 9- Big Score, grandson of Dynaformer, out of Unusual Heat trained by Tim Yakteen, should be good for 1 1/4 and excellent turf pedigree top and bottom. I think if Tim will this, it will be his biggest score of the year. Fabien Prat has been one of my favorite turf rider for the last couple of years. 2- Ticonderoga, grandson of Pulpit and out of Johar trained by Chad Brown, should also be good for 1 1/4, pretty good turf pedigree, but probably even better on dirt (from Pulpit). C Brown has been killing it in the east coast along with Pletcher. With Castellano on board, he should be midpack and ready to pounce turning for home. Lastly, 2- Arklow, grandson of Kris S and out of Empire Maker trained by Brad Cox should also be good for 1 1/4 and decent turf pedigree (from Kris S). Brad Cox is on fire, winning at 35%, that's just crazy. And with big game Mike Smith on board, how can you go wrong. ML favorites are from 3-1 to 5-1, I think I will take my chances with these long shots.

Once again, any comments or suggestions are always welcome.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Tough race the Belmont Derby to get a read on. Have to see what the tote says and see where the value may be. 3 Euro invaders adds to the difficulty.

[mrginandtonic]

Tough race the Belmont Derby to get a read on. Have to see what the tote says and see where the value may be. 3 Euro invaders adds to the difficulty.

Looks like a lot of money on the 1-Good Samaritan and 2-Ticonderago, both at 5-1 now 12 minutes to post.

[Easy-Rider 66]

The Fav Yoshida has looked good albeit against much weaker. But she wired a slow paced race and last time she closed into a fast pace saving ground. Going to try and beat her. Think I would play the 1 GOOD SAMARITAN and the 9 BIG SCORE as the longshot that you mentioned. Unless the Euro's show some speed it looks like OSCAR PERFORMANCE will get an easy lead here. I hope somebody challenges him early. GL.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Another wire to wire run for OSCAR PERFORMANCE at 5/1.

[mrginandtonic]

The Fav Yoshida has looked good albeit against much weaker. But she wired a slow paced race and last time she closed into a fast pace saving ground. Going to try and beat her. Think I would play the 1 GOOD SAMARITAN and the 9 BIG SCORE as the longshot that you mentioned. Unless the Euro's show some speed it looks like OSCAR PERFORMANCE will get an easy lead here. I hope somebody challenges him early. GL.

Disappointed that none of the Euro went to the lead with Oscar........

[Easy-Rider 66]

Disappointed that none of the Euro went to the lead with Oscar........

Yeah the #9 was up there early but Oscar took control.

[mrginandtonic]

Disappointed that none of the Euro went to the lead with Oscar........

LOL, I am glad I am not the only one that thought the pace should be more lively. Mike Watchmaker from DRF even wrote an article.....


http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-l...trates-bettors

[Easy-Rider 66]

This is a problem. It really is. And it’s not new. I’ve addressed it here before. And for every time it happens in a big stakes race, it happens multiple times in undercard races. It is valuable information to know when one speed horse will not challenge another early, and it is damaging to the game when that valuable information is kept to only a few select insiders.

From the Watchmaker article.

[mrginandtonic]

This is a problem. It really is. And it’s not new. I’ve addressed it here before. And for every time it happens in a big stakes race, it happens multiple times in undercard races. It is valuable information to know when one speed horse will not challenge another early, and it is damaging to the game when that valuable information is kept to only a few select insiders.

From the Watchmaker article.

, it sure is frustrating

[mrginandtonic]

Gonna try to post my thoughts on DRF Race of Day more egularly for the bigger tracks.

7/20 Race of the Day is Race 7 @ Del Mar

I think this is good betting race. The ML favorite of this race is the 6- Tapped @3-1 and second favorite is 3- Easy Grader @7/2. Tapped is first time on turf is the class of the field that hasn't really done much. With Smith on the mount, she is prolly gonna get bet down quite a bit. According to DRF, Tapit gets about 11% first turfed. Not good enough for me in this field of winners. The experts picks are 4- Evergreen ( from Matt) and 3- East Grader (from Dan). According to them, there isn't a lot pace. But I think there is gonna be a pretty good pace. Good enough pace for me to like the 9- Snow Cloud. While trainer doesn't have great numbers, but I think this race should set up nice for her. She won at this distance twice last summer. So she is capable and @8-1 ML. Gonna take a chance on her.

$5 WP on 9- Snow Cloud
$2 EX 9 with 2, 3
$1 TRI 9/ 2,3/ 2,3,6,7

As always, comments and suggestions are always welcomed. GL all.

(Note: 4- Evergreen has been scratched)

[TonyP]

7-20 dmr 7th

Ill take the 1 and hope blaze gets out of gate and keeps going.

[mrginandtonic]

7-20 dmr 7th

Ill take the 1 and hope blaze gets out of gate and keeps going.

I think Baze has to gun to the front being the 1 pole, I also think the 8, 5 and 6 will follow closely and prolly push the pace a bit. If they run 22 and 45's, I like the 9 closing on them from the outside and avoid all the traffic. At least that is how this race unfolds in my head. GL

[Easy-Rider 66]

Wide open race here Imo. Will wait for the tote. Leaning toward 5&6.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I think Baze has to gun to the front being the 1 pole, I also think the 8, 5 and 6 will follow closely and prolly push the pace a bit. If they run 22 and 45's, I like the 9 closing on them from the outside and avoid all the traffic. At least that is how this race unfolds in my head. GL

Good call Mr. G&T. Came in 9/5/1 Ex paid $152 for a $1.

[mrginandtonic]

Damn, I wished I saw your reply earlier. All I need to do was combine your picks with TonyP's, we have the trifecta and superfecta!! Now all I got was my WP wager.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Damn, I wished I saw your reply earlier. All I need to do was combine your picks with TonyP's, we have the trifecta and superfecta!! Now all I got was my WP wager.

Yeah forgot Tony P took the #1. Race unfolded like you predicted.