[JBEX]

could be

[Louisvillekid1]

2300 to the 1 and 33k to the 5 should be live too

Dammit

[JBEX]

saratoga


R3 #9 big browning (12-1)

interesting jose ortiz picks up mount for horse that did little vs specials in 2 tries.. new trainer, drops and tries the grass which she is bred to like


R4 #6 tiz he the one (9-2)

overmatched, bad post and wrong distance last out.. gets into this race on a little tweak of the conditions made just for him.. laurel races last year make him tough here and has run big off the layoff twice before (including debu win in that)



R5 #5 cartabianca (10-1)

a european who gets into a starter allowance race because of a claiming race she ran in france.. never seen anything like that before.. on races great fit for this field.. favorable running style and post position.. ortiz rides and think she'll definitely be lower..


just to be clear her last 3 races were in north america but prior 7+ in france.. above argument still the same for this one




R6 #4 free wheeler (4-1)


first time starter.. @ $430k very expensive relative (not just expensive) sprint, turf top and bottom.. todd and irad

R7 #4 snaffle (12-1)

first time starter speed, win early pedigree
jose/mcpeek 4 for 6 together
trainer having good meet



R8

#4 noble jewel (8-1)

nice pedigree and could see improvement 2nd time routing (4th career start).. rosario back aboard


#10 barrel of destiny (10-1)

fascinated irad would hop aboard for hertler who is 1/139 with turf horses ( one hundred and thirty nine)


50% more divided by 2



R11 #4 awesome alana (8-1)

showed some life as a 2yo and could see taking to 2 turns on the turf.. at least the top 3 finishers out of her last race came back to repeat.. chance to get a little bit of a price with the brown /castellano combo

[Louisvillekid1]

saratoga


R3 #9 big browning (12-1)

interesting jose ortiz picks up mount for horse that did little vs specials in 2 tries.. new trainer, drops and tries the grass which she is bred to like


R4 #6 tiz he the one (9-2)

overmatched, bad post and wrong distance last out.. gets into this race on a little tweak of the conditions made just for him.. laurel races last year make him tough here and has run big off the layoff twice before (including debu win in that)



R5 #5 cartabianca (10-1)

a european who gets into a starter allowance race because of a claiming race she ran in france.. never seen anything like that before.. on races great fit for this field.. favorable running style and post position.. ortiz rides and think she'll definitely be lower..

Such mixed feelings here, I think the #1 Dream Passage runs huge today, but the speed on the 2 horse to her right could cuz major problems in a duel setting up for horses like the #4 and #5.

The 3rd is wide open, I went deep

in the 4th the 6 is my second choice, I just love the form on the rail. lots coming off the bench with questions

Can't argue with any, BOL today.



SIDE NOTE: just saw Cheek pieces on your choice in the 5th

[Louisvillekid1]

Pretty epic us talking about Personal Ensign less than 24 hours before the passing, btw...

[Louisvillekid1]

Something about the fillies, I enjoy more than the boys...

[JBEX]

Such mixed feelings here, I think the #1 Dream Passage runs huge today, but the speed on the 2 horse to her right could cuz major problems in a duel setting up for horses like the #4 and #5.

The 3rd is wide open, I went deep

in the 4th the 6 is my second choice, I just love the form on the rail. lots coming off the bench with questions

Can't argue with any, BOL today.



SIDE NOTE: just saw Cheek pieces on your choice in the 5th

dream passage will be tough and her pace figures are huge.. don't think the 2 will be able to stay with her and if she does it will be on a much gentler pace as this is a significant drop.. then she will have plenty left in the tank.. problem for me of course is she'll be odds on.. if I were playing horizontal couldn't argue making her a single.. as far as mine it's just very unique circumstances and want to be aboard


what's cheek pieces.. never consider subtle equipment stuff like that?

[JBEX]

Pretty epic us talking about Personal Ensign less than 24 hours before the passing, btw...

yes that's really amazing

[JBEX]

Something about the fillies, I enjoy more than the boys...

I never had any preferences.. always cap them the same

[Louisvillekid1]

dream passage will be tough and her pace figures are huge.. don't think the 2 will be able to stay with her and if she does it will be on a much gentler pace as this is a significant drop.. then she will have plenty left in the tank.. problem for me of course is she'll be odds on.. if I were playing horizontal couldn't argue making her a single.. as far as mine it's just very unique circumstances and want to be aboard


what's cheek pieces.. never consider subtle equipment stuff like that?

Just equipment attached to the nose band , keep focused , nose down

[Louisvillekid1]

I never had any preferences.. always cap them the same

I’m saying from a fan perspective

[JayTris07]

GL JBEX,

[JBEX]

GL JBEX,

thanks jay tris

[JBEX]

added 6 7

[JBEX]

finished saratoga.. gonna look at kentucky downs later tonight or tomorrow

[JBEX]

kentucky downs

R1 #3 appealing way (8-1)
R2 #6 better tapit (10-1)
R3 #10 kitten's cat (9-2)
R4 #9 hitch (15-1) lower


R5 #2 call to victory (8-1)
R5 #6 spinning top (30-1) half unit


R6 #1 wexx (10-1)
R6 #8 lady elsa (10-1) half unit


R7 #1 cascaneuces (15-1)
R8 #2 next shares (7-2)


R9 #9 battleofwinterfell (15-1)
R10 #4 night time (6-1)



saratoga

R1 #4 structor (2-1)

chad monster.. $15k fee.. dam a winner (not stakes).. first foal to race ..$850k!!

R2 #7 brockmoninoff (6-1)

bad start last out in first race off long layoff.. weaver fantastic 2nd off.. sensible drop from sb n1x to clm 2l..(do consider the former much tougher).. exclude the yielding surface 2 back he always gives it a go



R5 #4 risk profile (7-2)

another brown firster who cost a bunch relative and they paid this large amount for him as a weaning.. like that trippi is the dam sire as that's all speed.. have a hunch also when klaravich names a horse with an investment theme they mean business.. belive it or not no pun intended lol


R7 #1 necker island (12-1)

stacked maiden race and sure they'll be some good ones coming out of here.. typical on woodward undercard.. this one fits my go to angle the best but he'll have his work cut out for him


R8 #6 tapaloof (12-1)

finally a first time starter with a monster ped that's not chad or todd..bit of an exaggeration but helps the price


R8 #4 no word (9-2)
R9 #1 hallawallah (4-1)


R10 #5 mrs sippy (4-1)
R11 #7 yoshida (5-2)
R12 #1 somes sound (12-1)

[JBEX]

saratoga through 5

[JBEX]

through 8 saratoga

[mrginandtonic]

kentucky downs

R1 #3 appealing way (8-1)
R2 #6 better tapit (10-1)
R3 #10 kitten's cat (9-2)
R4 #9 hitch (15-1) lower


R5 #2 call to victory (8-1)
R5 #6 spinning top (30-1) half unit


R6 #1 wexx (10-1)
R6 #8 lady elsa (10-1) half unit




saratoga

R1 #4 structor (2-1)

chad monster.. $15k fee.. dam a winner (not stakes).. first foal to race ..$850k!!

R2 #7 brockmoninoff (6-1)

bad start last out in first race off long layoff.. weaver fantastic 2nd off.. sensible drop from sb n1x to clm 2l..(do consider the former much tougher).. exclude the yielding surface 2 back he always gives it a go



R5 #4 risk profile (7-2)

another brown firster who cost a bunch relative and they paid this large amount for him as a weaning.. like that trippi is the dam sire as that's all speed.. have a hunch also when klaravich names a horse with an investment theme they mean business.. belive it or not no pun intended lol


R7 #1 necker island (12-1)

stacked maiden race and sure they'll be some good ones coming out of here.. typical on woodward undercard.. this one fits my go to angle the best but he'll have his work cut out for him


R8 #6 tapaloof (12-1)

finally a first time starter with a monster ped that's not chad or todd..bit of an exaggeration but helps the price

Sorry to bring the bad news; but #6 Tapaloof is scratched

[JBEX]

Sorry to bring the bad news; but #6 Tapaloof is scratched

ok have to look again..thanks mrgnt

[JBEX]

added both tracks

[JBEX]

finished saratoga

[JBEX]

finished kd

[JBEX]

Pretty epic us1 talking about Personal Ensign less than 24 hours before the passing, btw...

https://youtu.be/zjQhB2y3TLQ

[JBEX]

saratoga

R1 #6 chimney rock (4-1)
R3 #1 three outlaws (4-1)


R5 #10 bobbyfromthepalm (4-1)
R7 #4 andiama (15-1)
R8 #1 day dayenu (7-2)

[JBEX]

through 8

[JBEX]

going to take a break from this thread post kentucky downs and for the next few days.. going to do a thread on my theme of "maidens who cost a lot for their pedigree specs" .. first or 2nd starts but if first start is a really good effort will pass as it's too obvious.. these horses could cost as little as $30k (most likely spotted in maiden claimers) or the sky's the limit.. cover all tracks but mostly the better ones.. a large majority of these will be gray area decisions but that's handicapping.. will not tally but final odds and results will be posted.. no explanations will be given

[JBEX]

going to take a break from this thread post kentucky downs and for the next few days.. going to do a thread on my theme of "maidens who cost a lot for their pedigree specs" .. first or 2nd starts but if first start is a really good effort will pass as it's too obvious.. these horses could cost as little as $30k (most likely spotted in maiden claimers) or the sky's the limit.. cover all tracks but mostly the better ones.. a large majority of these will be gray area decisions but that's handicapping.. will not tally but final odds and results will be posted.. no explanations will be given

will be posted well in advance.. no looking at odds

[Louisvillekid1]

Will be following

[JBEX]

Will be following

ok lkid.. hopefully nail some good ones.. may begin today not sure

[JBEX]

will be looking at thursday's kentucky downs card tomorrow..weather looks good through the weekend

[JBEX]

kentucky downs.. thursday

R1 #1 big beautiful wall (3-1)
R2 #11 alien season (5-1)
R3 #4 the drake (12-1)

kind of surprised ml.. 2yo with classy bloodlines..racing and working right along and the works are at fair hill which tends to get them fit.. jose ortiz

R4 #10 comic kitten (9-2)
R5 #6 mr matuschek (5-1)

just missed the cut for the other thread



R6 #2 arabella bella (7-2)

[JBEX]

p:R9 >=4 and op:R9 >=4 and H and total >=8.5 and o:STR and STR

both teams scored >= 4 runs in the 9th previous game
both starters righties..
total >=8.5

8-0 o/u (5.12) big

about 8 unearned in sample but runs wouldn't have affected any of the overs (5 in one game)

nym/was over 10 (1pm)


kentucky downs tomorrow above

[JBEX]

month >=8 and DAY and WP<=40 and op:WP <=35 and season >=2012 and H


6-0 (-129) (3.17)


kc won on this twice last year.. 9-1 and 6-4


kc -105


just do this on occasion for weekday afternoon games..understand the arguments against this method (back fitting, small sample size and logic related)


all horses will be in the contest thread.. not going to double post (except for the "you paid what for that horse" thread)

[JBEX]

parx

R3 #7 trunk of money (7-2)
R5 #7 dennis diamond (10-1)
R6 #7 terry's charm (10-1)
R7 #9 sweet august lady (8-1)


R9 #1 charly's charm (3-1)
R10 #4 no hiding place (12-1)




indiana grande


R8 #2 arch socialite (5-1)