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churchill downs
R11 #6 logical myth (10-1)
lands in the softest spot since breaking his maiden vs special weights 4 starts back..returning quicker than he has in his past few starts and trainer is having a terrific meet at churchill..santana excellent turf rider..horse cost 37k so up for 40k is not a concern for me
belmont
R2 #2 she's not bluffing (8-1)
R4 #8 true blue giant (7-2)
R5 #4 shak's hidden gem (10-1)
R7 #9 labeq (4-1)
R8 #8 dispatcher (8-1)
R10 #2 wacky pal (9-2)
monmouth
R5 #6 mojac cat (6-1)
Last edited by JBEX; 06-02-19 at 11:55 AM.
added monmouth 5.. no more from there
Using the #2 She's not bluffing in a survivor contest on Derby Wars, Surprised she is 6/1. GL. Thought she would be lower.
Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66
I think about right considering no route experience but lots of other positives imo.. below 4-1 would have surprised me
Valid point. Like the last pace figures. Did regress on turf from the dirt experience but Maggie Wolfendale from NYRA gave her a positive paddock report. See what happens.
yeah for me that's not a factor but maybe at another time I'll explain my thinking on this.. gotta run out
OK hit me back later. Interested to see why? Thx.
I will get back to you later with this
delaware
R3 #5 storm net (5-1)
R5 #8 rock solid golfer (5-1)
R6 #4 lonely drifter (8-1)
R7 #3 dynamic miss (8-5)
probably odds-on but looks well meant and tons the best
monticello
R9 #5 cavill hanover (3-1) probably 4-5
finger lakes
R4 #9 cholmondeley (6-1) bad ml
R6 #7 leap to glory (2-1)
R7 #5 bavaro (5-2)
guess who originally owned this horse.. coached a couple of super bowl winners.. changed hands quite a few times since then via the claim..big mistake as this is a rugged, solid 5yo horse (not gelding) with 9 wins in 23 starts and has amassed almost $350k in earnings.. picked the right name .. this is a 50k stakes race for NY breds.. could see him having a future as a cheap ny stallion
R8 #8 queen's dude (15-1)
Last edited by JBEX; 06-03-19 at 10:28 AM.
I don't equate turf figures with dirt ..don't have it right in front of me now but believe it was his 4th or 5th career start..to me it's a positive that he put up pretty good dirt numbers relative to today but not a negative that his turf number was a little lower..in this case his running line in the sprint I thought was a nice set up for the route..I like even efforts in sprint races where the winning figure of the race he exits is at least 4 lengths faster than today's route par or the figure he would need in today's race to win..I think this type of effort legs them up nicely to stretch out..just think if you were going to use a sprint as a prep for a route wouldn't a mid-pack run in a faster paced race make sense as a primer ? I use to use this more freely than I do in recent years (realize didn't work or come close to working here) but feel it works best in cheap races where the form is very shaky (maiden clm,beaten claimers)..even in these situations i'll try to weigh how good the field is relative to this type of race and my horse's last race..I thought this was one of those times where it fit well but obviously no good..I like to use this running line angle now but applied differently and it actually will be part of the reason I like one of my belmont stakes picks..put that up thursday
Thx for the take. Makes sense.
no problem
mountaineer
R7 #5 yenisey (4-1)
R9 #4 lemon sparkle (6-1)
thistledown
R1 #3 moonlit mission (7-2)
R2 #1 anita marie (5-2) entry
R4 #8 evan's calling (9-2)
R5 #3 katalust (5-2)
R6 #3 g's ship load (5-2)
R7 #3 awesome gent (9-2)
R8 #3 appealing jazz (9-2)
looking over this race for a while and realized I was listening to queen's album jazz while doing it.. cinched it.. like the horse anyway.. if no 3's today I'm in trouble..funny only race I skipped is 3
monticello
R4 #5 rusty's treasure (7-2)
R5 #7 miss profitability (9-2)
R8 #6 sudden change (7-2)
indiana
R4 #2 western boy (3-1)
R5 #7 proud dreamer (9-2)
R6 #1 time's ghost (7-2)
R7 #9 soul spirit (7-2)
Last edited by JBEX; 06-04-19 at 02:03 PM.
gulfstream
R5 #6 flaming hot (7-2)
2yo debuter is out of a listed stakes winning dam who in her debut in may at calder lost by a nose as a 2 year old.. 5 winners from as many starters including 2 stakes winners and all who tried as a 2yo won.. freshman sire retired 2/2 and the maiden breaker was from the 14 post at gulfstream as a 3yo..researched this not just written somewhere
didn't like what I saw at indiana and the rest of this card.. probably it for the day.. lots of good stuff next few days
belmont thursday
dirt good or fast... on the turf to be plays
R1 #2 pillar mountain (5-2)
R2 #8 red zinger (3-1)
R4 #3 my happy place (8-1)
R5 #5 ygritte (8-1)
R7 #2 reiterate (6-1)
R8 #4 zonza (8-1) bad ml
R9 #6 appointment (12-1)
thursday belmont above
woodbine
R8 #3 typically (7-2)
belmont friday... do last 2 races tomorrow
R1 #2 per capita (8-1)
R2 #8 lead guitar
extremely expensive for the bloodlines and out of one of the best first out sires there is.. first foal out of a dam who was a stakes winner... in a starter stakes at turf paradise lol.. whether the horse wins a grade 1 or the aforementioned it's a stakes winner.. in this case it makes the auction price more impressive because the turf paradise race shouldn't do much to enhance the horse's value
R3 #3 oggonis (8-1)
another at $750k not only expensive but expensive relative to specs.. think last sets up nicely for the stretchout on turf and way above average pedigree for that
R4 #1 h man (2-1)
R5 #5 dawn the destroyer (5-1) 555
R6 #2 om (8-1)
R7 #6 dixie mo (10-1)
find it intriguing that they'd take a horse who won an off the turf msw at indiana downs in her debut and try her in here vs stakes winners.. she did it easy breaking from the 10 post but figure is slow in this field.. like the fact it's a homebred by elite sire uncle mo.. trained by wesley ward who's having a great meet and knows what he's doing with 2yo's.. lot's of speed in here and this horse sat off the pace in her debut and might prove to be an edge here.. another is sometimes these big figure 2yo debut winners will take a step backwards after their big effort
R8 #7 whitmore (7-2)
R9 #8 homerique (6-5)
won with an extremely slow figure in a grade 3 last out.. on a firm track @ 8.5f they went 52.4 and 1:16.4 on the front end and the pace figure for the race was par.. almost hard to believe.. she closed into that and have a hunch those figures aren't correct and she had to really work for that win.. just feel she's going to get back to her european form which makes her much better than these
R10 #9 canessar (9-2)
took a very similar path to this race last year.. three 1.5 mile races including the last one the same as this year's last one.. last year 1st call 8th by 6 .. exactly same today.. finish 6th by 2.75 exactly the same as today.. never seen anything like that.. quite amazing! came 2nd by a length last year earning a career high figure
R11 #6 brass ring (15-1)
Last edited by JBEX; 06-07-19 at 09:18 AM.
churchill
R8 #5 brightworthy (4-1)
friday's belmont previous post
GL JB! I'm on a few of the same....
thanks batt.. same to you
got one done for tomorrow
belmont saturday
R4 #6 environs (8-1)
broke bad from wide post last out.. give her another shot based on pedigree, lightly raced and running well over in europe where competition is considered better.. get chad brown and jose ortiz on something that's less than obvious
R5 #1 come dancing (6-5)
5 horse field and the #2 is the great midnight bisou (1-1)..looks to me that mine is the clear lone speed.. possible that the 4 will be ridden aggressively but she's not as consistent on the front end.. won her last two by wide margins with big figures at 7f and a mile and today's a 1 1/16.. not a lot of opportunity here.. just trying to pick a winner
R6 #2 om (8-1)
R7 #9 ce ce (9-2)
broke her maiden first time out and last race missed by a neck at 6 and 6.5f respectively.. ran huge figures in both.. good spot to try a 1 turn mile and think could possibly sit off lots of inside speed.. trainer michael mccarthy excellent under the radar guy and excels at many applicable trainer angles here
R8 #1 honest mischief (6-1) lower
his last speed figure was about 3-4 lengths faster than a grade 1 race (2nd start maiden breaker probably explains the morning line)
off the charts pedigree.. by elite sire into mischief out of a graded stakes winning mare who has produced 8 winners from 9 starters including 3 stakes winners.. doesn't end there as the dam is by seattle slew and is a half to the great horse and sire empire maker.. that's american pharaoh's grand dad.. it's no fluke he's so good
chad brown, castellano
R9 #8 pavel (20-1)
encouraged that o'neil would make this cross country journey after making the even longer trip to dubaii the race before.. 3 races in grade 1's at 1 1/4 vs the great accelerate last year.. then send him out to japan after that wtf? first start this year caught the only sloppy track he's ever run on and then of course last race as mentioned dubai.. I like the race last year in the stephen foster at 1 1/8 which he won with a solid figure.. at the eighth pole (mile mark) he was ahead by 3 lengths which makes me think he might like the mile distance.. I've seen doug win with some not so pretty on paper horses shipping out to various locales including the dubai world cup this year.. not interested in taking a short price on mckinzie or mitole
R10 #3 robert bruce (6-1)
was close to the front last out off a 6 month layoff and the pace (by figures) was about 7-8 lengths fast.. think with that one in the tank will be nicely fit for his 2nd race.. the speed he showed last race might serve him well on this course today.. jose ortiz up this time and he won the arlington million with him last year.. very capable when he's on his game
belmont stakes.. other thread
R12 #3 abiding star (9-2)
wired a field of open 40k claimers last out and even though he had a clear lead the pace was rated about 5 lengths fast.. speed couldn't hurt today.. trainer ned allard a real old timer but haven't seen his name in a while.. almost $40 million career earnings.. trainer has excellent and profitable numbers on the turf, repeat winners and 3rd off the layoff.. jose ortiz rides again
R13 #6 rocketry (7-2)
the other 1½ mile race at belmont today (the dwyer for older horses).. horse is a monster marathoner.. feel he was compromised last 2 being behind extremely slow paces..thats about it
Last edited by JBEX; 06-08-19 at 04:54 PM.
belmont
R5 #8 the sinner is you (9-2)
R8 #6 steelersfanforlife (8-1)
monmouth
R1 #2 intimidation (4-1)
$425k 3yo first time starter from the same connections of derby disqualfyed maximum security
R4 #6 bostaleto (8-5)
R12 #3 person to person (6-1)
churchill
R7 #4 special reserve (15-1)
R10 #7 cha mono (12-1)
thinking the wide post off the long layoff may have been a bit much for him.. probably got something out of that and will be tighter today.. many of his races vs 5k beatens (7500 open today)
at fairgrounds would win this.. foley having a terrific meet
santa anita
R9 #4 sunny dale (5-1)
Last edited by JBEX; 06-09-19 at 05:34 PM.
did churchill.. probably look at 2nd half of monmouth
winner of this race a state of minnesota homebred by uncle mo (125k stud elite sire).. rare you see a mn bred like that .. don't follow closely but guess they have a statebred program and most of the runners are local cheap sires ..his trainer is 0/38 with msw debuters and 1/57 with all types of debut horses but horse did have exceptional off track breeding (on the bottom also).. mine finished 3rd a half length off 2nd at 22-1 and the winner paid $24
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