The first 3 races look kind of formful with R1(5-Perfect Trippi 5-2),R2(4-Discreet Dancer 6-5), and R3(1-Nevada 7-5) all figuring to be tough.That's no fun though so I'll try to make a case against .
Race 1
Perfect Trippi would win with a repeat of last race but he got exactly that last out, a perfect trippi.It was also a wet track were both of his wins have came and he is (7)0-2-1 on a fast track.The best scenario would be for Perfect Trippi and
Macarthur Causeway ,the 2 favorites, to get into a duel on the lead setting it up for
9-Favorite Patriot 4-1
4-Island Scholar 8-1
7-Rythm Of The Moon 10-1
Race 2
Is not worth betting imo.Pletcher just kills it in these spots at GP and
Discreet Dancer could be a monster at 6f.Even if he falters somehow the winner is most likely not going to pay enough to take that stand.
Race 3
The thought would be blindly betting that
1-Nevada falls off a cliff making his first start out of the Pletcher barn.That is a big fall though given ,by my figures, he is about 20 points better than anyone else in the field.If that were to happen the race becomes wide open and a WIN bet on
4-Centuar Man at 8-1 looks like the play backed up with a cold 1/4 exacta.
Race 4
The trainer of the 5-2 favorite
Beach Master is all but unstoppable at Arlington/Hawthorne but is very average at GP.
1-Road Agent 8-1 has been running with the best 3 year olds in the US for his past 4 races and
8-Dighton ran 3rd last race behing the G2 Hutchenson winner and another who also ran OK in that race.
8-Dighton 3-1
1-Road Agent 8-1
7-Statutorial 12-1
6-D'nied Permission 6-1
8,1,7/8,1,7,6
Race 5
This is the kind of race where I love to take stabs with horses (w/ turf breeding)making their 2nd lifetime start but 1st time on turf after running horrible in their first on dirt.The horses that fit the mold are
6-Two Term Leader 12-1 and
11-Uncle Gare 20-1 but
7-Keep The Cash 20-1 also makes his first turf start in his 3rd lifetime race.The logical one seems to be
5-Tenforthemoney at 6-1.
5/6,7,11
or dutch 6,7,11
I'll let Harthebar tell us what races 6 thru 10 look like