[str]

where he broke his maiden 1st time out @ 7f..I think this path makes sense if the horse is ready






.

Clement said he will keep all his NY options open. Safe to say the plan is to keep him in NY for the spring and summer I assume.

[JBEX]

Clement said he will keep all his NY options open. Safe to say the plan is to keep him in NY for the spring and summer I assume.

besides the peter pan there is only one other spot in may in ny that fits the bill.. sunday 5/19 @ 1 mile (so 1 turn) a 3up alw2xot or clm62.5..probably be one of those two if he runs in ny next month




.

[str]

besides the peter pan there is only one other spot in may in ny that fits the bill.. sunday 5/19 @ 1 mile (so 1 turn) a 3up alw2xot or clm62.5..probably be one of those two if he runs in ny next month




.

From what little I see and not knowing the horse at all, Where Kingsbarns was in need of a complete intervention to get him straightened out, I have to think that an extreme measure is probably not necessary with Deterministic.
Again, I know nothing from where I sit. But if my assessment was correct in his last race, the rare occurrence leaving the gate, set off a chain reaction in the horses mind that led to one unfortunate thing becoming more than one unfortunate thing.

Clement went back to work with him mentally with a nice easy maintenance work having the horse start a length back, then draw even, al the while relaxed, and then draw away slowly and I'm sure again, relaxed. That stuff will continue but he will get a little more serious each work. I guess it comes down to what Clement thinks the horse needs to continue forward. I assume Clement has lost no confidence in Deterministic at this point so his next start will be big, but the least of my worries will be "if he is ready or not" to run a big race.
He will be IMO.

[JBEX]

From what little I see and not knowing the horse at all, Where Kingsbarns was in need of a complete intervention to get him straightened out, I have to think that an extreme measure is probably not necessary with Deterministic.
Again, I know nothing from where I sit. But if my assessment was correct in his last race, the rare occurrence leaving the gate, set off a chain reaction in the horses mind that led to one unfortunate thing becoming more than one unfortunate thing.

Clement went back to work with him mentally with a nice easy maintenance work having the horse start a length back, then draw even, al the while relaxed, and then draw away slowly and I'm sure again, relaxed. That stuff will continue but he will get a little more serious each work. I guess it comes down to what Clement thinks the horse needs to continue forward. I assume Clement has lost no confidence in Deterministic at this point so his next start will be big, but the least of my worries will be "if he is ready or not" to run a big race.
He will be IMO.

definitely can see that KB was different than DM as far as resetting (if that's a good word)


seems by what you said that he's healthy and clement's preparing him mentally and physically for his next start..
if he gets a clean trip with a fair setup next out see no reason why he couldn't at least run well in the peter pan and a grade 3 seems like a good fit class-wise at this point..also,in spite of the troubled trip, I would imagine it couldn't hurt that he'd be at the same place and distance as his last start

[JBEX]

think I might have another follow str



debut horse bet really well

how much he cost factoring a weanling purchase and gun runner much cheaper in 2021..dam and progeny is nothing special making the price they paid even more of a clue..at least imo


like you to watch the race if you could when you get a chance ..i thought a very tough trip but not an obvious got out bad and blocked type thing..ran 3rd a neck off winner

like the name for an expensive horse..hints at potential

kee
R7 #2 world record






.

[str]

[str]

Only look at their eyes and the area between the white bridles squared off. Between the nose band and the ears. You can see in their eyes that one is dominant and one is conceding. Although even at this point, they both know the outcome. No whip will help that. It's why endless pounding on a horse is a terrible way to ride. It doesn't work like that.

The things you can see if you look hard enough.

And the best part, no announcer needed and you learn so much more with your eyes than you do with your ears during a race.

Thought you folks would like to see that.

[JBEX]

nothing subtle about it..so guess there are times a horse who has more in the tank won't go by another because it's intimidated to do so

[JBEX]

think I might have another follow str



debut horse bet really well

how much he cost factoring a weanling purchase and gun runner much cheaper in 2021..dam and progeny is nothing special making the price they paid even more of a clue..at least imo


like you to watch the race if you could when you get a chance ..i thought a very tough trip but not an obvious got out bad and blocked type thing..ran 3rd a neck off winner

like the name for an expensive horse..hints at potential

kee
R7 #2 world record






.

having a tough time moving within the post so didn't highlight..this really wasn't a tough trip..the thing I found impressive is after being right up there early he seemed to just fall back on the turn and looked like he was
going to finish way out..then he just picked it up again into the stretch, rallied and almost got it

[str]

nothing subtle about it..so guess there are times a horse who has more in the tank won't go by another because it's intimidated to do so

It's not so much that as the rider has not even asked him a bit. When they hit the wire, his rider asked to go on and he responded by going by a length or two. Teaching him to try and wait for commands and be kind of like push button helps take the anxiety out of going head and head. So it's working on the mental as well as the physical if that makes sense. You want the horse to be thinking in tune with the rider and not worrying about dueling or thinking for themselves. If they do, they just get worked up and burn unnecessary energy.

[str]

think I might have another follow str



debut horse bet really well

how much he cost factoring a weanling purchase and gun runner much cheaper in 2021..dam and progeny is nothing special making the price they paid even more of a clue..at least imo


like you to watch the race if you could when you get a chance ..i thought a very tough trip but not an obvious got out bad and blocked type thing..ran 3rd a neck off winner

like the name for an expensive horse..hints at potential

kee
R7 #2 world record






.

having a tough time moving within the post so didn't highlight..this really wasn't a tough trip..the thing I found impressive is after being right up there early he seemed to just fall back on the turn and looked like he was
going to finish way out..then he just picked it up again into the stretch, rallied and almost got it

Yeah, he's a runner. Let's follow him for a while as well.

Here is what happened in that race.

Watch the race and at :32 on the replay time, the rider has to take back off the leader because he is inside and the lead horse has made it tight enough ( smart move), to make the rider of your horse have to check before the turn as everyone will be switching leads. If he stays put, when the leader switches, he will mostly clip the leaders heels and go down.
So he takes back a length and when they switch to the left lead, the leader drops directly over in front of your horse. The dirt comes spraying back and your horses head goes way up as he is not familiar with that feeling. If you try and run with your head up, you will see how much slower you are. Can't do it worth a darn. Don't let the neighbors see you trying, you will look like Forest Gump running. Lol.

Anyway, it takes about a 1/18th at least to get the horse back on the bit somewhat but cannot get totally clear as you can see he is trying hard to do that. He has to stay towards the inside but the wall in front of him splits enough that his rider slides into that spot with only a little kick back or none and as soon as he moves out of the spray, your horse accelerates immediately. I have to think that dirt spray never happened to him in the morning.

Once he overcomes that somewhat, (which is an impressive thing by itself as many cannot in their first race and sometimes never really get over it), he starts to rally and finishes very very well. At the 1/8th pole, ( green and white pole 1/2 way down the stretch) his head is back down where it needs to be and he is running great. He got tired right at the end costing him 2nd but that really doesn't matter in the long run.

All in all, a very fine effort. Let's watch his next race for sure. Can't imagine him losing especially if he draws a better post with the speed being inside of him. He will probably break better as well as he had to stand in the gate quite a while with the 2 post and he broke just a step slow most likely because of that.

Watch the replay and let me know if you have any questions.

Thanks JBEX.

[str]

Yeah, he's a runner. Let's follow him for a while as well.

Here is what happened in that race.

Watch the race and at :32 on the replay time, the rider has to take back off the leader because he is inside and the lead horse has made it tight enough ( smart move), to make the rider of your horse have to check before the turn as everyone will be switching leads. If he stays put, when the leader switches, he will mostly clip the leaders heels and go down.
So he takes back a length and when they switch to the left lead, the leader drops directly over in front of your horse. The dirt comes spraying back and your horses head goes way up as he is not familiar with that feeling. If you try and run with your head up, you will see how much slower you are. Can't do it worth a darn. Don't let the neighbors see you trying, you will look like Forest Gump running. Lol.

Anyway, it takes about a 1/18th at least to get the horse back on the bit somewhat but cannot get totally clear as you can see he is trying hard to do that. He has to stay towards the inside but the wall in front of him splits enough that his rider slides into that spot with only a little kick back or none and as soon as he moves out of the spray, your horse accelerates immediately. I have to think that dirt spray never happened to him in the morning.

Once he overcomes that somewhat, (which is an impressive thing by itself as many cannot in their first race and sometimes never really get over it), he starts to rally and finishes very very well. At the 1/8th pole, ( green and white pole 1/2 way down the stretch) his head is back down where it needs to be and he is running great. He got tired right at the end costing him 2nd but that really doesn't matter in the long run.

All in all, a very fine effort. Let's watch his next race for sure. Can't imagine him losing especially if he draws a better post with the speed being inside of him. He will probably break better as well as he had to stand in the gate quite a while with the 2 post and he broke just a step slow most likely because of that.

Watch the replay and let me know if you have any questions.

Thanks JBEX.

Is it correct that we should NOT be posting replays anymore? Kind of a shame as a lot of people would have rapid access to that replay and be able to see exactly what I'm talking about.
If not, I use the replays on NYRA Bets. Do you have another suggestion as to a link we could provide to help everyone see this?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Is it correct that we should NOT be posting replays anymore? Kind of a shame as a lot of people would have rapid access to that replay and be able to see exactly what I'm talking about.
If not, I use the replays on NYRA Bets. Do you have another suggestion as to a link we could provide to help everyone see this?

is there a new policy here at SBR on posting you tube vids STR? You can find KEENELAND R7 replay on the KEE website. They have all the KEE replays there.

[str]

is there a new policy here at SBR on posting you tube vids STR? You can find KEENELAND R7 replay on the KEE website. They have all the KEE replays there.

Don't think so. I see you tube all over the place.


This particular replay would be great for people to see. It explains everything as to why that horse did what he did.

[str]

is there a new policy here at SBR on posting you tube vids STR? You can find KEENELAND R7 replay on the KEE website. They have all the KEE replays there.

Maybe someone can post the link here. I don't know what I'm doing.

I'm lucky I'm still not using a pay phone when I'm not home. Lol.

[JBEX]

Yeah, he's a runner. Let's follow him for a while as well.

Here is what happened in that race.

Watch the race and at :32 on the replay time, the rider has to take back off the leader because he is inside and the lead horse has made it tight enough ( smart move), to make the rider of your horse have to check before the turn as everyone will be switching leads. If he stays put, when the leader switches, he will mostly clip the leaders heels and go down.
So he takes back a length and when they switch to the left lead, the leader drops directly over in front of your horse. The dirt comes spraying back and your horses head goes way up as he is not familiar with that feeling. If you try and run with your head up, you will see how much slower you are. Can't do it worth a darn. Don't let the neighbors see you trying, you will look like Forest Gump running. Lol.

Anyway, it takes about a 1/18th at least to get the horse back on the bit somewhat but cannot get totally clear as you can see he is trying hard to do that. He has to stay towards the inside but the wall in front of him splits enough that his rider slides into that spot with only a little kick back or none and as soon as he moves out of the spray, your horse accelerates immediately. I have to think that dirt spray never happened to him in the morning.

Once he overcomes that somewhat, (which is an impressive thing by itself as many cannot in their first race and sometimes never really get over it), he starts to rally and finishes very very well. At the 1/8th pole, ( green and white pole 1/2 way down the stretch) his head is back down where it needs to be and he is running great. He got tired right at the end costing him 2nd but that really doesn't matter in the long run.

All in all, a very fine effort. Let's watch his next race for sure. Can't imagine him losing especially if he draws a better post with the speed being inside of him. He will probably break better as well as he had to stand in the gate quite a while with the 2 post and he broke just a step slow most likely because of that.

Watch the replay and let me know if you have any questions.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str

so the dirt spray on the turn was not to his liking..I guess by what you are saying that some horses will get some experience with this while training..great info that running again afterwards is a sign that he might be a quality runner..in addition I thought if he was able to get between the 6 and 7 at the top of the stretch and not have to shift inside he might have won comfortably

thanks for the feedback str

have a hunch we might see him at saratoga but probably would be a start before that..i'll keep an eye out for him

[str]

no problem str

so the dirt spray on the turn was not to his liking..I guess by what you are saying that some horses will get some experience with this while training..great info that running again afterwards is a sign that he might be a quality runner..in addition I thought if he was able to get between the 6 and 7 at the top of the stretch and not have to shift inside he might have won comfortably

thanks for the feedback str

have a hunch we might see him at saratoga but probably would be a start before that..i'll keep an eye out for him

1. This horse will get this experience most likely in his next work or two. Probably do the spray thing a few times. It's not that he does not like it necessarily, it is that he had never experienced it before, and it caught him off guard. As a result, he started thinking about the spray instead of his job and the rider.

I doubt the trainer ever put him in that position before but I can't think I would have either. The horse has a natural turn of foot and is obviously a nice horse. With all the different things that a baby needs to learn before running, dirt spray is way down the list unless he has shown to be a slow plodder type since the beginning. Can't imagine that is the case here.

He will understand the spray better next time but probably will not have to deal with much or any with his natural speed and quality.

2. I agree with the 2nd highlighted comment. If that angle out was available it would have been much easier for him no doubt. But at some point he would have encountered that spray so it had to eventually happen. He will be just fine and a better horse for it next out.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: Derby week is upon us. As usual any thoughts you have on the race are appreciated. Thx in advance

[str]

Hey STR: Derby week is upon us. As usual any thoughts you have on the race are appreciated. Thx in advance

Sure will EZ. I'm going to start looking later today or tomorrow morning for sure.

[str]

Apparently Derby week includes daily vet checkups from an independent team of vets to examine the Derby horses in the days leading up to this Saturday.
While this is a great idea for everyone and especially the horses, it can also have it's share of controversy with the way it seems to work. I do not know all the details but I would hope that those that are just getting aquatinted with the horses would have the ability to discuss something that might arise with the normal attending vet. I have to assume that is the case. And I say that because practically every horse will have something, somewhere, albeit small or even larger that can possibly show up and bring forward more questions which could lead to more still.
That has to be tough for trainers to have to deal with IF the occasion arises of a question about something in particular with that horse.
I won't defend trainers on this because for every nice, kind, outgoing or even very normal group of trainers in a particular race, there almost has got be a few that are jackasses about this process. Trainers can be plenty of things and arrogant and condescending are included in that "plenty" I'm talking about. More than a few will be real defensive about anything pertaining to their horse and it will come down to working with the process or being irritated by it.

It will be interesting to see if anything transpires from this . Sure hope not. Hope everything is smooth and works well. The idea of this is great. But some trainers and sometimes some vets can be known to not play well with others. So we'll see how it goes. I'm going to try and keep and eye on this as the week goes by.

I'll keep you posted if I hear anything.

[JBEX]

Apparently Derby week includes daily vet checkups from an independent team of vets to examine the Derby horses in the days leading up to this Saturday.
While this is a great idea for everyone and especially the horses, it can also have it's share of controversy with the way it seems to work. I do not know all the details but I would hope that those that are just getting aquatinted with the horses would have the ability to discuss something that might arise with the normal attending vet. I have to assume that is the case. And I say that because practically every horse will have something, somewhere, albeit small or even larger that can possibly show up and bring forward more questions which could lead to more still.
That has to be tough for trainers to have to deal with IF the occasion arises of a question about something in particular with that horse.
I won't defend trainers on this because for every nice, kind, outgoing or even very normal group of trainers in a particular race, there almost has got be a few that are jackasses about this process. Trainers can be plenty of things and arrogant and condescending are included in that "plenty" I'm talking about. More than a few will be real defensive about anything pertaining to their horse and it will come down to working with the process or being irritated by it.

It will be interesting to see if anything transpires from this . Sure hope not. Hope everything is smooth and works well. The idea of this is great. But some trainers and sometimes some vets can be known to not play well with others. So we'll see how it goes. I'm going to try and keep and eye on this as the week goes by.

I'll keep you posted if I hear anything.

seems like there could be a lot of gray area issues that the trainer and NAV are used to but a new vet might see as a possible red flag..communication between parties involved regarding particuliars of the horse makes a lot of sense

[str]

seems like there could be a lot of gray area issues that the trainer and NAV are used to but a new vet might see as a possible red flag..communication between parties involved regarding particuliars of the horse makes a lot of sense

Yes JBEX. Unfortunately, just like in many areas in life, inflated egos usually rear their ugly heads. If they clash, it becomes ridiculous.

I never really understood that angle. But people are different and some just can't get over themselves.

[str]

Let's talk about the track surface for Friday's card and the Derby on Saturday.

Forecast shows rain 59-65% most of Friday actually starting as early as Friday morning. That means the Track Superintendent has to prepare the track on Thursday night for Friday AND Saturday if that forecast holds. You cannot grade mud so all they will be able to do is squeeze water out by floating it, which is heavy iron flat pieces that squish down the mud and bring the water to the top allowing it to runoff once it is muddy.

So what does this mean?

Do remember that the track has an angle or pitch to it. So the dirt /mud/whatever, slowly goes from the middle portion of the track and up to the crown waaay outside , down towards the inside rail. It moves a little each time the harrows go over it or the floats . If this doesn't made sense...Think of it like a pair of pants with no belt but it needs one. You have to adjust them back up because they constantly want to slowly slide down as you walk. Probably plenty of better analogies but what the heck. Lol.

Most likely, the track on Friday will be "over" graded due to no grading until after the Derby Saturday. As an example let's say they wanted to move two inches of surface off the rail to get an even grade in Friday after the races for Saturdays track. On Thursday evening, their last chance to grade the dirt before it turns to mud, they might decide to grade 3". Or maybe stay with the 2". What's that mean? If it is 3" for instance or what we would call more than usual whatever the exact measurement is, the track should play favoring the inside paths giving inside trip horses an advantage over horses that are maybe 3 or 4 wide. You have to watch the position of the horses everywhere not just through the stretch. An example would be lets say the 1 horse lays 3rd early and wants to get out of the dirt spray so it moves out the the 3 or 4 path. forget the horses number, that is a 3 wide trip. Let's say the 8 horse drops back early and goes down to the rail , sits inside , moves up inside and swings to the two path or stays on the rail. THAT is a rail trip. If you notice this in the first couple of races Friday, and inside trips are winning and beating outside trips, you should adjust your plays accordingly by trying to put the race together hypothetically before it runs and by doing so, see if the inside posts look like they will have inside trips. Maybe box the 1,2,3 if that makes sense or has value. Or the 1,2 and 4 if the 4 looks to stalk behind the 1 or 2 and the 3 is a three wide candidate due to it's running style. Basically, try and draw up the positions of the horses at 3 or 4 various points during the race in your mind.
It is really hard to predict an 8 horse will get a rail trip but it is not that hard to see that the 1,2,3 could indeed stay inside and benefit from what you deem to be a very live rail.

So lets see what Friday brings but lets watch today as well. I would assume todays track would be a fair track with no bias to speak of but that is only an assumption.
Look at the inside part of the track under the rail and write down if you see something. Like dirt clods at the 1/8th pole, or where the harrow ducked in for a second somewhere or ... anything odd in the dirt where the horses hoofs do not land ( the rail is at an angle with the legs further inside than the actual rail ).

You will use what you saw or didn't see Friday morning to see if that debris is still visible or if it is smooth now. If visible, they did not adjust the track. If it's smooth and fresh, they DID. Then go from there and analyze.

Yeah, it's added work but you now know more than probably 99% of all the players playing.

Remember , a hot rail can become fade away at any time so you must watch closely each race.

Hope that makes sense and helps.

[Snowball]

I don't think it's enough actual water to make us change our capping strats.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/un.../2626825?day=3

[str]

I don't think it's enough actual water to make us change our capping strats.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/un.../2626825?day=3

Very true Snowball.

Nobody knows for sure. That said, the decision on how to handle the next two days at Churchill is being made as we type.

Racetracks pay a lot of money for accurate forecasts from private firms. The decision on how to handle the next two days has to be made now. So what do they do?

We don't know but what we do know is that they are deciding now, and therefore gambling on the weather.

So we want to see how they gambled and how it might or might not affect the track the next two days. It might be nothing. It might be everything. Who knows?
All I know is I have given customers the chance to see how the sausage is made in terms of the track depths. Most have no idea this even exists.

What we see or how we treat it is up to each individual.

Let's see what we see and good luck Snowball !

[Snowball]

Very true Snowball.

Nobody knows for sure. That said, the decision on how to handle the next two days at Churchill is being made as we type.

Racetracks pay a lot of money for accurate forecasts from private firms. The decision on how to handle the next two days has to be made now. So what do they do?

We don't know but what we do know is that they are deciding now, and therefore gambling on the weather.

So we want to see how they gambled and how it might or might not affect the track the next two days. It might be nothing. It might be everything. Who knows?
All I know is I have given customers the chance to see how the sausage is made in terms of the track depths. Most have no idea this even exists.

What we see or how we treat it is up to each individual.

Let's see what we see and good luck Snowball !

Without a doubt, and if you have anything to add about it by tomorrow, I'll listen. My lean as of now is to avoid the gutter 4, and IF it's raining or had just rained pretty hard before post time, I'll move off the rail too. I was already leaning on the middle of the pack before this, once Encino was scratched. My bets will be late. I expect LM and need to see the rain as others will also, last I checked it was 35% chance but that's just for post time. Since we have HDTV now it's easier to infer the track depths but if you have info from someone on site that's obviously better.

[str]

OK

Here is what I saw at Churchill today:

There are no real worries about the track being deep in certain spots. Why? From what I see, there is not enough cushion to be deep anywhere they will run.

Certainly I cannot see where 2-3" of cushion could have been graded outward because I don't see anymore than 2-3" of cushion period.

To be fair, I don't follow Churchill. I was used to Md. racing and that meant winter and summer as well as the other seasons. I am not knocking Churchill. Not at all. I assumed the track would have more cushion than it does. I was wrong.
How can I see this?? Look at the horses standing at or near the gate or as they approach it. Look at the boots of the gate crew as they load the horses at any point they are standing. I can see a lot of boot and hoof within that slop. I also see the times run. And yes, they are very nice horses running today. That said, they are running fast.

So, was the rail great today? Well, it was not bad at all. I saw some horses with rail trips at non favorite odds run very well. But not sure I say anymore than the rail was fine and maybe a slight advantage.

What does that mean for tomorrow? I'm not sure but I can't see how bogged down a rail might be if there is not that much surface to slide down to bog it down. From what I saw today, the track might be muddy or dry but I don't think that will matter to the vast majority of the horses. We can watch some early races tomorrow to double check that but seems it will be quite fast and probably fair and if it is still wet it will most likely be a wet fast. I saw nothing tiring about that surface today.
If I see anything different early in the card tomorrow, I will talk about it.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: No Legal Company taking Derby bets in my state that I am aware of even though it is legal to pari-mutual bet here. Strange it is. Anyhow I have narrowed my picks down to 2 ponies. Looking for your take as well. If you could hit us back by 4PM great as that is when I am putting the wagers in with a friend up North. If you are too busy no worries. THX in advance. Good Luck.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Should now be good till 6pm. Again if you are busy STR no worries. Thx

[str]

Should now be good till 6pm. Again if you are busy STR no worries. Thx

Busy this morning but I am good now.
I want to watch the 6th race and then I will share some thoughts and makes some predictions.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Sounds good STR. Look forward to your take. Might add your top play to the mix

[str]

Going to comment a little on each horse.

1. Dornoch- looks like he will gun for the lead at all costs early. All signs point to a very fast first 1/2 mile .
That will make it really tough on the 1 unless he can relax. I can’t see how he can.

[str]

2. Sierra Leone- should get a nice pace to close in to. He is liable to get shuffled back early and will be towards the rear. Will need luck to pass some on the inside or between but that is not impossible.
Looks like a major player and don’t think he will need a great trip to win. Just a decent trip should be enough
Major player for me.

Let me add that after watching the 6th race I think the track is very fast and seems fair inside and outside.

Irad just said the same thing so the jocks feel what we are seeing.

Very fast track with not a lot of cushion.
Likely to stay that way but I’m always watching for a change. If I see it I’ll post it.

[str]

To help understand what I’m looking at and by going from the rail to the outside I must say this now.
This Derby runs through Fierceness. If he runs his race, he will be really tough to beat. Honestly when he runs with maximum effort I am of the opinion that he is simply better and faster than all of these horses.
That said , on to the 3 Mystic Dan.
He has great figures but I cannot identify a solid reason why He is better than all these.
There are multiple horses like him in here and while not impossible I will look elsewhere.

[str]

4. Catching Freedom - solid horse with a solid shot. Can’t really fault him so I have him as one of many contenders.