A couple of things.
1st. Watch the break and you will see that Rosario , in the first 3-4 strides seems to lose his left iron which causes him to bounce his butt on the saddle a couple of times until he gets his foot back in the stirrup. You can't see his foot, but that is sure what it looks like. The 3 comes out a bit at the break and brushed the 4 and in doing so, pushed Rosarios foot out of the stirrup I think. Once you have identified what I'm talking about, now watch how as soon as Rosario gets his foot back in the stirrup and is back to balanced on the horse, with butt off the saddle and trying to sit still, Deterministic takes off and has to be restrained by Rosario. All this takes place in the first roughly 7-8 seconds.
At that point, the horse is running off as we say, or fighting the rider to go on. Certainly not relaxing, and focusing on breathing, switching leads into the first turn, and listening to the rider through the bit, which is what you want to see. He is Burning energy and has lost focus. This running off stuff lasts until all through the clubhouse turn, and clearly shows it is still going on as they go past the chute and down the backside. All Deterministic is doing is burning energy without any focus or professionalism at this point. IMO he is beat already.
As they get to the 1/2 mile pole ( red and white pole with the trailers lined up in the background), he has started to level off some but the energy has been burned since just after the break. However, now he is a head in front of two horses to his outside and must maintain that position . Wanting to keep the horses right eye clear at that point and maintain position, The rider with the orange cap is the reason Rosario has to do what he does. So Rosario has to start to ask for a bit more. Deterministic is totally confused. He has lost any idea of what he is supposed to be doing, or in simple terms, he's running green or dumb. He has barely relaxed for one step, if that, and now he has to go? Well, he actually does, and maintains that position until the orange cap sneaks a head or neck in front of him about 7 10 seconds before the 1/4 pole at the top of the stretch. (Red and white pole).
Deterministic is SO mentally screwed up that he never switches leads through the stretch. Poor horse is a mental train wreck. Totally lost between the ears. Best thing that can happen is for this race to be over and go back home and regroup.
On a side note. I cannot imagine what Clement was thinking during the race. I STILL can remember watching a horse of mine doing something like that and it scars you to think about. A drop of PTSD maybe. And THAT would have been an A OTHER THAN or claimer or something. Certainly not in the Wood or for a spot in the Derby. WOW.
Deterministic was cooked by the time the went past the chute and on to the backside. No horse can overcome that. Especially a horse that has run a handful of times.
Assuming he comes out of the race in good shape physically, Clement will go back to the basics and start over with Deterministic mentally. I don't know if he will send him to the farm for 30 days or what, but he will have to start over with the mental side of things.
I will assume his next start will be around 1 turn. Like a mile. Clement will know that getting that race out of the horses head and getting back to where he was before yesterday is the ONLY objective. No race pointing I would not assume.
But 2 turns will probably be in the long term plans but it's back to baby steps for now in all probability.
I know that is a lot to get out of a replay but I would be a little surprised if it was anything else. As you know, just a guess.
A lengthy prediction but unless it is something other than what I saw and therefore misinterpreted by me, that's what I would assume will happen. Only Clement knows for sure though.
One last thing JBEX. When he does run back and if what I said turns out to be right, it would be my guess that you could play on him aggressively knowing that he is absolutely ready to run and get back to who he was in his previous races.
Hope that all makes sense.