Originally Posted by
str
I think that anytime a horse can run a bit more reserved early, that will always be more manageable for the horse overall than if they are physically pushed to their limits.
However, it becomes ALL about the mentality of the horse in that exact situation. What I mean is, if they have a chance to relax and pace their breathing , will they indeed do that? Or will the intensity of the moment and two turn experience be too much to overcome. Will they control their inner workings mentally, or will the moment get them off topic and they fall prey to the difficult situation because of the newness of the moment?
Does that make sense?
We saw the moment and situation eat up Kingsbarns with lingering side affects in the Derby. In his position of only a few races and always needing to give AND learn more each race, it is not uncommon and should be understood by his trainer. ( Something I had no idea existed when I first started training, nor would close to any trainer with limited experience like I had. Four years from greenhorn to a trainer).
But in this situation, if you had a short list of trainers that had the Derby on their minds all winter, IF it was obtainable, Clement would be on that list. No, he is not a yearly Derby trainer. But he trains just like one. I met him briefly when I was at Saratoga on the backside visiting Tony D. about 10 years ago. Tony gave him very high praise back then. Tony doesn't just throw that around so I heard him loud and clear. Since then, we have seen it time after time with the horses he sends out. The guy is super at training a horse, getting them to relax, and of course, finish. And he is passing that down to his kids, the oldest of which is down in Florida overseeing Deterministic everyday.
That said, this horse , it is now obvious, has been pointing to the Derby for the entire winter. And why not? It does not hurt to point for something and then not make it unless you are pushing the limits to get there. So far from what I have seen, the horse has not been "pushed" towards the 1st Saturday in May, simply been put on a path. If he had run so-so last week, that would have been that. But he passed the test with flying colors. So... The journey continues but running two turns in my mind would seem more natural to him than running one turn. It's just his style, what little we have seen of it. And you can bet that he has a solid understanding from daily training, what two turns is all about. I have to think he has been doing a smaller version of that everyday with the clubhouse turn and far turn this winter to the point where although he has not run 2 turns yet, he has trained like it's all part of the routine. I would be very surprised if his daily routine is to start to relax through the lane the 1st time around, start to pick up the bit as he enters going down the backside, feel another gear mentally if not asked physically as he hits the far turn, and wanting to fly though the lane. while all this can be controlled by the rider, the seed gets planted all the time so it becomes a routine in the horses head. All the small details JBEX. That what sets apart ok, good and great trainers AND horses.
Plenty of critical steps remain for all the horses. Each race will answer questions along the way. The amazing thing is, as soon as the Derby has run, every horse has a new challenge. For some, it will be trying to collect themselves from tough Derby run. For others, build off of the Derby and continue forward.
I'm sure I sound like a broken record but it's all about taking steps forward and keeping your cool doing so. So you know the drill. Can he do so next out around two turns? I'll say probably yes because if their is any place to get a horse ready to relax and be totally fit, it's Payson Park in Florida. If there is a trainer that trains to relax and go on, it's C. Clement. And the horse looked like he knew what he was doing in that last race. So we will cross our fingers and continue to watch.
If Clement was switching gears because of that win and now needed to rush him, that would be a difficult ask, but this is definitely not that.
On a side note, this is two years in a row you have had a solid run in the futures at a real nice price. I have not kept up with the futures thread as much as I would like, but will get caught up soon.
Keep up the good work JBEX and all of you guys in their with you longshots. You have had me drink the Kool-Aid for Derby futures with all that can be learned and applied in everyday handicapping.
Heck of a lot of entertainment and learning for a few bucks here and there.
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