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Breaks are needed. Glad you’re off to a good start! Maybe spring. I have a two month old now so the time for capping has gone away. We’ll see. Honestly, I haven’t missed it as much as I thought I would as I pay attention a little here and there. It’s also the winter and not as big races going on and I’m into college basketball.Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66
OK Jelly good luck with the baby. Yeah I needed a break but glad to be back in the mix. Doing decent on Derby Wars. soon my state will be good to go with pari mutual so look forward to that. Will look for your picks next time you post. GL
Congratulations on the baby Jelly !
And keep up the good work EZ.
Trnr: Dutrow, Jr. Richard E (63 16-10-11 25%) Hey STR: here are the results On Your guy Dutrow's latest work. He is really killing it at the Big A. I guess you are not surprised?
White Abarrio 'Better Than Ever' Approaching Saudi Cup Trip
Dutrow said White Abarrio's raw talent, combined with the expertise from his brother and assistant, Chip, and exercise rider Emily Ellingwood, have made California the perfect place to prepare for the richest horse race in the world
Some more info on Dutrow from the Paulick Report.
I am not at all surprised.
Looks like he is right on schedule for him EZ. It's when you look at everyone else's stats, it looks like he is hot. But Rick... he was born and lives hot.
And the beauty of this is he DOES NOT use ANY illegal drugs. EVER.
He never has.
A truly gifted horseman taught by one of the best teachers to ever walk this planet.
I was so lucky to be a small part of that when I was young. Just incredible.
Thanks EZ. Always a pleasure. You're the man.
CAREER STATISTICS
Add to Compare
2024 STATISTICS*CAREER STATISTICS
Starts Firsts Seconds Thirds Earnings 19 5 5 4 $307,520
Starts Firsts Seconds Thirds Earnings 7,354 1,843 1,325 1,059 $93,361,429
Career 7,354 1,843 1,325 1,059 $93,361,429 $12,695 25% 57%
^^^ Good deal STR. THX for posting Rick's career numbers. pretty impressive.
Thanks, str!
congrats on the baby jelly
Post Bias: RAIL 1-3 4-7 8++ +Impact Values: 2.10 1.15 0.90 0.84Avg Win % 29% 16% 12% 10%
Hey STR: the above is from BRIS on post bias at 4.5 Panels at CT. The 29% rate is for the rail. By far the highest in a 48 race sample. I think you said on these 4.5F sprints at CT that outside posts have an advantage( correct me if I am wrong) Wanted to get your opinion on this. THX in advance.
and of course we would need a bigger sample to gauge this rail success. But don't you think STR since they start in the chute at CT for 4.5 panels that changes the dynamic.
The overall success of the rail will typically be about what you posted at Ct. But, in races where the "box" applies, it will be much less.
The "BOX" is when the outside post horse has early speed and the some inside horses might have early speed. If the outside stall is solo speed, that's even better.
Usually they will load in such a way that the box ( outside horse) will load last and break on top. With that early speed, they can really bother the inside horse or horses by getting into their right eyes as we have talked about. If the outside horse does not have early speed, it is NOT as box situation. It only applies to speed with the outside horse who will work to pin the speed inside of them and have the turn work for that outside horse and impede those inside.
So early speed in the 8 post out of 8 let's say and their are two speeds inside. We will call them the 1 and the 4 (or whatever). The 4 is pinned between 2 speeds and a turn is 27 seconds away when they break. That is a bad spot to be in. The 1 MUST use all it's energy to outrun both those speeds outside it or it gets slammed when they all come over in about 27 seconds when the switch leads into the turn. The 8 can dictate how hard those two inside speeds work by applying outside pressure and having a clean right eye. In all probability, if all three are going to hit the turn equally, the 1 will be forced to take up or get pushed into the rail. The 4 horse will be in between and most likely do the same or be very uncomfortable in that position. The 8 will be controlling the pace with position and therefore: boxing in" the other two. The inside horses check out or balk at running and when they hit the turn, you see the 8 horse open a clear lead. THAT is the perfect scenario for the "box".
It is only a box if that outside stall horse has the speed to run with the inside horses. And if it has just a bit more, it's a perfect setup. But, without speed, there is no boxing going on so the overall PP win% cannot be applied. You need the correct setup.
When it happens, it is an opportunity for a big edge. Most people do not understand that and will play the 1 horse figuring they will have the rail. But with the right eye situation you understand and is in this thread for anyone that does not, that does not work out very often if a true "box" situation is on paper.
When all the horses drop over from switching to their left leads at the turn, the inside gets 6-8 feet tighter and cannot support the width of three bodies. Those jocks are fully aware of that which is why they pull out 3-5 jumps before the turn when they are not clear and are in between horses. They are avoiding getting dropped.
Do make sure you can see this on paper and understand it EZ and everyone for that matter. Nothing better than having that outside horse and watch the two inside horses pull out and all the sudden, you are 2-3 in front and they are getting sprayed with kickback. It's a big edge when the turn is 27 seconds away out of the gate. So it works for 6 furlongs as well going one turn at a mile track.
Please let me know if you still don't get it. I really want you and everyone here to fully understand this and see the potential for it BEFORE the race, not just during or after the race.
When it sets up correctly, it's like a gift and typically at a decent price do to the hopefully over bet rail speed.
^^^OK STR got it. Makes sense. I usually move up speed horses on the outside when the box is present. THX.
Thanks, j! Hope you’re doing well and off to a positive start this year with the horses!congrats on the baby jelly
going bad for a long while jelly..only place to go is up lol ..bol to you this year
hey str
wanted to get your opinion of born noble's effort ..R6 #5 (12:15)
I thought considering the race set up he ran pretty well
https://youtu.be/laRWxiCy548?feature=shared
I have to say that as much as I like and appreciate ALL the questions asked, probably my favorite is reviewing tape. I did that so much with the advent of reruns on TV at 4AM in the 80's. I recorded all of them from my barn office, had a library, and watched for claims until my eyes fell out. LOL.
Gotta admit, I recorded Miami Vice as well and would watch that before the races also. Crazy when those two showed up at the Preakness one year dressed just like when they were in the TV show. Had to laugh. They even walked by, Crockett on the left and Tubbs on the right. All you needed was the music in the background.
Anyway... Yes, he did run well. He simply ran out of air. He was really tired.
Splits for him as you probably saw were 24.3, 22.1, 24.1, 12.4, 13.4
That second split did him in. I get why the other horse did it but it was suicide for that horse and ultimately got Noble Effort beat.
Do keep in mind that he was not perfectly fit for that as the long term goal is a slow build up to the Derby, Preakness or a big one somewhere if they are 2nd tier. All the trainers with prospects they are high on will train these the same. That is, working for a goal to peak in May/June. It is this time of year that an inferior horse who is dead fit, might be able to sneak up on a better horse. I don't know if the winner is that or not. Did not pay attention to the form or the odds. I do feel that if that 2nd split had been more reasonable, Noble Effort would have won at least somewhat in hand.
That is something you have to keep in the back of your head for all these preps towards May, especially the ones in February and March.
Most times the better ones can win 80-85% fit, but it is obviously harder to do when you are forced to throw down a 22 1/5th down the backside. You could even see Irad feeling how tired the horse was the last 1/16th. He knew to hit him twice more was a total waste of time.
Hope that makes sense JBEX.
Thanks for the video question. Crockett and Tubbs, Hahaha. Good times.
Edit: I am assuming this was some sort of a 3 yr. old prep. That might be very wrong. If so, the advice is sound but it doesn't apply.
If that's the case, the horse ran fine but due to the crazy 22 1/5th down the backside, he ran out of gas.
Sorry for the assumption if it was incorrect.
Thanks JBEX.
Last edited by str; 02-07-24 at 08:27 AM.
no problem str
loved miami vice back in the day..the location,plot ,music,characters and celebrity guests always made it interesting ..great show and
must've been cool to see them meandering about on preakness day
should have filled you in more..was an allowance race on the holy bull stakes undercard ..guess todd didn’t want him to face the early ky derby futures favorite "fierceness" who also was trained by him (and wound up losing at 1/9) plus wouldn't make sense to pass on the allowance condition in his 2nd start
being challenged that early in the race and agree the 22 change 2nd quarter really did him in..obviously todd wasn't looking to be in that style of race
..sure he would've preferred kingsbarns 2nd start (easy allowance win at tampa) vs what BN had to endure in that race
understand at the allowance level a horse like that's supposed to win but considering the trip the race was a positive..he certainly got some great conditioning and experience .. in his debut showed that he's capable of stalking which is very important going forward
think with his pedigree and how he won his debut there's a good chance they'll try a stakes with him next out
if i can find his debut race I'll po st a link
here's his debut @ 7f on 12/30
https://youtu.be/6UEiwQUt29s?si=t8XTeCnL7iMaztHD
names kind of ironic considering we were discussing kingsbarns around the same time last ..same track and trainer
He improved mentally quite a bit from race 1 to race 2.
Impressive
Yeah, I realized that. Man, the stock Todd gets. Unreal.
good to hear..interesting to see if they go the louisiana derby path like KB..timing of their careers is very similar..only difference is BN still has that allowance condition..I have a hunch they're gonna place ambitiously but realize it depends on lots of things only todd knows about
KB missed 3 weeks training and has worked twice since ..so if they were thinking the undercard on this saturday's big race day at tampa (the alw n3x I suggested a few weeks ago) that wasn't going to happen..guess there must have been some issue to stop for so long ? anxious to see him run this year
.
yes ..good to be todd lol..a fresh supply of elite potential every year
.
from 1/8..I misread the condition of this race
it's an alw n3l or n2xot or clm $32k (not a n3xot)..KB wouldn't be eligible for this..off the top I don't think there are many alw n3xot races..seem to remember going back a long time before they had optional claiming that this was the case also..either no condition , haven't won a race this year or at or beyond a certain distance .. if they can't find that a low level stakes is probably up next
Back in the day, a 3 other than would fill with 7-8 horses. Not always but probably 1/2 the time. The money won by a date was tricky because Spectacular Bid or crazy stake horses were eligible if they had taken several months off. It was the last chance before the water got VERY deep with heavy hitters. But those stopped filling consistently in the early 80's with too many tacks running at the same time. So they added the high claimer price to help it as well as a distance clause. But that clause make some unbeatable horses eligible if they were inclined to try a different distance. You had to be careful to say the least. Imagine you are worth about 50k and solid and you pick up the overnight and Kingsbarns is in the next stall from you.
Whatever the condition and albeit it Gulfstream or Tampa, Todd will do his best to make it as easy a first try back as he can find I would assume. The horse needs to keep it's cool. Easy will be much better than hard early. I think it's all about the mental end.
so for example you could have (maybe still..not sure) a race in may for horses that haven't won
at a mile or over since the beginning of the year..this type of race may attract a really good horse off a long layoff or 2nd off who may have needed one or possibly had a compromised trip
..guess that could be real appealing to a horse who ran well but didn’t win in a stakes off a layoff
also you could possibly qualify (and be realistically spotted) for that race if you won a high claimer route this year because claiming races were excluded from the conditions ??
couple of possibilities for KB..
3/9 (tampa bay derby day)
tampa bay 4yo + 1 1/16 dirt .. grade 3
3/30 (fla derby day)
gulfstream 4yo + 1/16 dirt .. grade 3
tampa bay probably more likely as it's much sooner. also appealing to be on the undercard of the biggest race days of each tracks meets
highly likely todd will have horses in both or at least one of those big 3yo races
I had a claimer in like my 1st or 2nd year training that I had taken from a Va. trainer for about 11,500 ? Loudon's Wind.
She got good while I had her, won some allowance races or something like that and the racing Secretary hustled me into a 6 horse field of some small amount of money won in the last 6 months at Pimlico.
Young, dumb, and not yet fully understanding the condition book, I said, ok ( I had to do favors for him because he allotted the stalls and I was growing and needed more. It's what you do. I take care of him and he takes care of me.)
So I enter 6 only. It's a nice purse so even if I finish 3rd, it's a decent payday for a former claimer.
I pick up the overnight later that afternoon and Debby's Turn is in the damn race. She was a grade 3 winner but a total monster against Md. allowance horses. She galloped !
Can't remember if I ended up 3rd. Think I did but whatever... that was a lesson learned about money won in the last 6 months or something like that. Never did that again. But I did get more stalls when I needed them so there was that.
I would love to see an allowance race where he could relax, finish and win easily. But I know that's old school these days but what the hell, I AM old school. Lol.
I'm very concerned that if he starts running off early like we saw after the Derby, he might and I think more like probably, never reach his potential.
Time will tell.
I really feel that he's capable of sitting off if he wants ..did it in first two starts..have a hunch it might have been part of the strategy in his last 3 ..worked in LA derby but got cooked in the "freak show"Ky derby ..possibly also the strategy in pegasus at mth (last start and generally kind to speed there) .. even if that is the case I feel the reset ,like you do,will benefit his career long haul which I think ,barring injury, will be a good one
When you get fried in the head like I feel he did in the Derby, that is really really hard to undo. That Monmouth race , he was all keyed up down the backside as compared to the LA Derby in my eyes. Mentally, just a different horse IMO.
Time is about the only thing that works to try and get him squared away. That and stopping the madness asap, which Todd did do. He has been given every opportunity to mature, put that speed stuff behind him, and get back to who he was prior to the Derby.
I am very hopeful he can. If so, I totally agree that he could have a very nice 4 year old and 5 year old year. But it's a big if and we will have to just hope he can do it. Sure hope so JBEX.
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