[JBEX]

hey str

don't have the pp's right in front of me but if you are coming into the travers with the belmont as your prior race isn't it an advantage to have been within a length at the quarter pole ,open up a few lengths to the stretch call and then give up a couple to the wire (arcangelo) ..compare this to running mid/close early and win or lose by about 2-3 lengths

being that close at the 10f mark and opening up (especially that) a few lengths from there i would think is a conditioning edge considering the cutback in distance..do you agree that even off an approximate 2.5 month layoff doing that in the belmont is going to carryover to the travers if it's your next race

[str]

hey str

don't have the pp's right in front of me but if you are coming into the travers with the belmont as your prior race isn't it an advantage to have been within a length at the quarter pole ,open up a few lengths to the stretch call and then give up a couple to the wire (arcangelo) ..compare this to running mid/close early and win or lose by about 2-3 lengths

being that close at the 10f mark and opening up (especially that) a few lengths from there i would think is a conditioning edge considering the cutback in distance..do you agree that even off an approximate 2.5 month layoff doing that in the belmont is going to carryover to the travers if it's your next race

Great question !

I have a few things to say.

Meant to get to this all day but, it's Monday. So... I will talk about this tomorrow for sure. Sorry about that.

[BOA12]

hey str

don't have the pp's right in front of me but if you are coming into the travers with the belmont as your prior race isn't it an advantage to have been within a length at the quarter pole ,open up a few lengths to the stretch call and then give up a couple to the wire (arcangelo) ..compare this to running mid/close early and win or lose by about 2-3 lengths

being that close at the 10f mark and opening up (especially that) a few lengths from there i would think is a conditioning edge considering the cutback in distance..do you agree that even off an approximate 2.5 month layoff doing that in the belmont is going to carryover to the travers if it's your next race

I had Arcangelo in the Belmont too.

[JBEX]

I had Arcangelo in the Belmont too.

nice roll with him..will be a top contender for the bc classic if he stays healthy..would imagine that'll be the next stop

[JBEX]

Great question !

I have a few things to say.

Meant to get to this all day but, it's Monday. So... I will talk about this tomorrow for sure. Sorry about that.

no problem str .. whenever you can and always appreciate your feedback

[str]

I had Arcangelo in the Belmont too.

Both very nice calls sir.

Very well done !

[str]

hey str

don't have the pp's right in front of me but if you are coming into the travers with the belmont as your prior race isn't it an advantage to have been within a length at the quarter pole ,open up a few lengths to the stretch call and then give up a couple to the wire (arcangelo) ..compare this to running mid/close early and win or lose by about 2-3 lengths

being that close at the 10f mark and opening up (especially that) a few lengths from there i would think is a conditioning edge considering the cutback in distance..do you agree that even off an approximate 2.5 month layoff doing that in the belmont is going to carryover to the travers if it's your next race

Q. with the belmont as your prior race isn't it an advantage to have been within a length at the quarter pole ,open up a few lengths to the stretch call and then give up a couple to the wire (arcangelo) ..compare this to running mid/close early and win or lose by about 2-3 lengths

A. Winning is always better. But having the ability to stay close, open up and win but not barely hanging on HAS to be the optimum way to go into the 1 1/4 Travers off 1 1/2 miles I would think. I mean, he was not exhausted in the Belmont, not just galloping home, but kept to task without fully draining the tank. That seems to me to be about as good as it gets for a cutback to the 1 1/4.

And I am so very happy for the trainer. She did a remarkable job! From several reports, this horse was training by far, better than he ever had and was eye catching in the mornings with his accelerated gallops leading up to the Travers. You know I love cutbacks and this one showed why.
With all the people dying to second guess the girl trainer for training up to the race, all she did was shut them all up. Could not be happier for her.
We've talked about female trainers and employees before. I used to love having females work for me. The more the better. Still one of the best kept secrets in racing. Horses can click with a female more so than a male. And when they do, it usually shows in the afternoon. If things go well, he will be a handful in the Classic.

Q. being that close at the 10f mark and opening up (especially that) a few lengths from there i would think is a conditioning edge considering the cutback in distance..do you agree that even off an approximate 2.5 month layoff doing that in the Belmont is going to carryover to the travers if it's your next race

A. Yes. For a few reasons but IMO the biggest is lung capacity going that far. You can't train that but so much. And you don't necessarily get the desired affect if the horse stops or falters at some point.
Seems like it was the perfect setup.

Speaking of lung capacity let's keep an eye on Tapit Trice next time. That race was the first in a while where he ran hard for about 5/8ths before flattening a bit. Blinkers ON certainly got his attention. He should have more lung capacity for his next start. Add to that a bit more settled hopefully and he could jump up and run better at a nice price next out. Never know but worth following.

I think you have the right idea in what you asked. Do know, there are not a lot of handicappers that look at it that way. At least there weren't back when I was doing it.
Good question and one you can use in your favor when it appears.

Nice job JBEX.

[Easy-Rider 66]

If we’re being honest, any defense of dirt racing boils down to just being OK with greater numbers of horses dying.Dirt racing is tradition, but it’s also tradition to turn a blind eye, to place other priorities above horse welfare. It’s tradition to accept the baggage of dirt

Hey STR the above quote is from David Aragona the NYRA Oddsmaker. Do you agree with his sentiments? THX

[BOA12]

Both very nice calls sir.

Very well done !

Been a pleasure knowing you, somebody don't like me here, I have to jump through hoops just to post.

[str]

Been a pleasure knowing you, somebody don't like me here, I have to jump through hoops just to post.

I've been getting a 500 - Internal Server Error

for the last two days and another type error for two or three days before that. It makes it hard to move around on SBR. Also a couple of times I answered and could not post it for some reason. Hopefully, it's internal stuff that the techs will straighten out.

We love you in the horse forum B 12. Wit, personality, and a handicapping Mother shutyourmouth, can ya dig it.

Keep up what you do B12. And I'd ask who you like in the Classic but I already know. Lol.

All the best sir.

[BOA12]

I've been getting a 500 - Internal Server Error


for the last two days and another type error for two or three days before that. It makes it hard to move around on SBR. Also a couple of times I answered and could not post it for some reason. Hopefully, it's internal stuff that the techs will straighten out.

We love you in the horse forum B 12. Wit, personality, and a handicapping Mother shutyourmouth, can ya dig it.

Keep up what you do B12. And I'd ask who you like in the Classic but I already know. Lol.

All the best sir.

Never mind, my mistake, thought this 500 internal Service error was directed at me. I never claimed 2B good, here's

the proof.

Thanks for the personality profile, will use on my resume. LOL.

BOL horse lover brother.

[str]

If we’re being honest, any defense of dirt racing boils down to just being OK with greater numbers of horses dying.Dirt racing is tradition, but it’s also tradition to turn a blind eye, to place other priorities above horse welfare. It’s tradition to accept the baggage of dirt

Hey STR the above quote is from David Aragona the NYRA Oddsmaker. Do you agree with his sentiments? THX

Well, pretty strong words IMO. I have the utmost respect for Mr. Aragona in the job he does. He is very very good.

That said, we all understand what has been witnessed this year on multiple fronts have been terribly horrific. It's one thing to break down. Many survive that. But the literal explosions of ankles and knees at close proximity to the finish line and or key events for all to see have been beyond disturbing.


I have seen the outcry and read what people post about the breakdowns. Many compare the trauma to Go For Wand ( 33 years ago),
Ruffian ( 48 years ago), and Barbaro ( 17 years ago) . All very high profile races that had a tragic ending. But fact is, it has happened since, well, forever. That by no means is me throwing my hands up and saying, that's just the way it is. No way. Not close. But it will always be somewhat inevitable as long as there is competition between horses racing on a track.

I wish I could better understand synthetic surfaces but I never will to the degree I understand dirt surfaces. Are they really all that safer and if so to what degree? And, how so. I do not know.

My question would be, how much safer? And another question would be, let's see statistics on every track that runs individually, NOT collectively.
For instance, when I trained, Laurel in the mud in the fall was hard on a horse. Typically though, it was tendons and ligaments, not bone.
Bowie in the winter was more prone to bone injury. Pimlico in the spring, same thing but not as harsh as dead of the winter racing.
We IMO, should not be mixing results of dirt racing across the country into the same numbers. Each track, each surface and each soil content or turf drainage and makeup are different. Some slight and some drastically so. I would start there and address each tracks strengths and weaknesses based on that.

If you don't think they are different, you never walked it in multiple conditions and temperatures like grooms do taking their horses to the paddock and then back home after the race. I clearly remember wearing certain pants at Delaware Park because if I wore certain other ones, they would be ruined in the mud. Stains and soil content saw to that. Nothing like blue corduroys with that lovely ring of grey you could not possibly wash out around the bottom foot of them to help impress the ladies. Same with Laurel. Blue Jeans with that cool hint of reddish clay that was impossible to get off. Always hoped Travolta would wear a pair of those in a movie so I could pimp into the TD lounge in Laurel on Saturday night to find a girl with any luck. Never happened though. Damn.

So you get what I'm saying EZ. Mixing in different surfaces IMO equates to diluting the true track by track statistics. Lately, we have seen Santa Anita cancel racing for a couple of days in the winter when heavy rains where on the way. Very smart move. It has seemingly helped a lot. But how about other tracks? And how about Saratoga? What if certain tracks formed a plan to cancel the card, especially if they are relying heavily on turf racing that day and fully aware that there will be a ton of scratches? Maybe that is in order. But until they examine wet days vs. dry ones, pop up storms vs. soaking rain and surface, and all these little but very different details, how would we know for sure? And this again IMO, should be protocol for every track. They ALL must have their own %'s of breakdowns in certain weather or not. Let's look at that.

Stop pointing to breeding spindly legged horses and nonsense like that. The buying market takes care of that already. People putting up millions for yearling and 2 yr. olds know the difference. There is more information and gossip flying around at those sales than there is a a high school prom.

I saw someone write OMG what will happen when the Flightlines run? He only ran X amount of times. That's once again , IMO, muddying the waters. So what! You assume he limped because of his short career. And Justify? He ran 6 times. Was he a broken down horse? I don't know. But the economics of the breeding shed was at a peak and he could only devalue himself at that point. So the downside far outweighed the upside from an economic viewpoint. It was pretty much a no brainer to stop both when they did.

Moving on to synthetic surfaces only also mightily shakes up the breeding shed. Who do you breed to? And more importantly who do you NOT breed to? This stuff is right up there with the Lasix issue, discussed in this thread several years before the implementation of no Lasix in grade one races.

If you key word search it or if someone finds it and gives me a page or post number, I will edit this post and include it. It's a "same bag, different groceries" type of discussion. And, I think IMO, they got it right. Time will tell.

What we talked about before the fact was breeding and how stopping the use of Lasix could only start in the highest arenas and slowly work there way down. Going cold turkey was not an option. Over time though, it can be. But then you wonder if all bleeding medications will be banned or just Lasix so as to make the public happy. Slippery slop there folks. I've written about that years ago as well.

That made sense then and what I just wrote makes sense now. But things take time and many have no apatite for that. Sadly, for any horse that falls through that crack between now and whenever making surfaces better and safer are victims of the times they lived. Kind of like smoking cigarettes was in the 40's, 50's and 60's.

Let me end with this:
There are many many people in the industry today that are smarter than I when it comes to these types of decisions. But what makes my stance so easy is I do not have any interference from people that have money invested. Kind of like cigarettes. It only took as long as it did because of the money that did NOT want it to stop.
I don't know if this will be the same thing or not. What I do know is that the outcry from fans, writers and everyone WILL help push something along which , in time will make things better. I think that for all the diversity in what people are saying, some of which is practical and some of which is radical, and all that falls in between, the noise is such that the powers that be are looking and listening.
And what happened at Saratoga, the premier meet in America, was totally unacceptable and changes WILL be made. Like the Lasix issue, I don't know when but it will come. And when it does, it will be a safer place for all involved, especially the horses, to do what they were bred to do.

Compete to the best of their abilities in the safest environment we can create for them.

Again, thanks for reading.

And thanks for a great and timely question EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR solid take thx for the Detailed response. . And yeah good point on the different dirt surfaces and the need to track the stats individually.

[JBEX]

Q. with the belmont as your prior race isn't it an advantage to have been within a length at the quarter pole ,open up a few lengths to the stretch call and then give up a couple to the wire (arcangelo) ..compare this to running mid/close early and win or lose by about 2-3 lengths

A. Winning is always better. But having the ability to stay close, open up and win but not barely hanging on HAS to be the optimum way to go into the 1 1/4 Travers off 1 1/2 miles I would think. I mean, he was not exhausted in the Belmont, not just galloping home, but kept to task without fully draining the tank. That seems to me to be about as good as it gets for a cutback to the 1 1/4.

And I am so very happy for the trainer. She did a remarkable job! From several reports, this horse was training by far, better than he ever had and was eye catching in the mornings with his accelerated gallops leading up to the Travers. You know I love cutbacks and this one showed why.
With all the people dying to second guess the girl trainer for training up to the race, all she did was shut them all up. Could not be happier for her.
We've talked about female trainers and employees before. I used to love having females work for me. The more the better. Still one of the best kept secrets in racing. Horses can click with a female more so than a male. And when they do, it usually shows in the afternoon. If things go well, he will be a handful in the Classic.

Q. being that close at the 10f mark and opening up (especially that) a few lengths from there i would think is a conditioning edge considering the cutback in distance..do you agree that even off an approximate 2.5 month layoff doing that in the Belmont is going to carryover to the travers if it's your next race

A. Yes. For a few reasons but IMO the biggest is lung capacity going that far. You can't train that but so much. And you don't necessarily get the desired affect if the horse stops or falters at some point.
Seems like it was the perfect setup.

Speaking of lung capacity let's keep an eye on Tapit Trice next time. That race was the first in a while where he ran hard for about 5/8ths before flattening a bit. Blinkers ON certainly got his attention. He should have more lung capacity for his next start. Add to that a bit more settled hopefully and he could jump up and run better at a nice price next out. Never know but worth following.

I think you have the right idea in what you asked. Do know, there are not a lot of handicappers that look at it that way. At least there weren't back when I was doing it.
Good question and one you can use in your favor when it appears.

Nice job JBEX.

thanks str and glad you agree the way he ran in the belmont could have benefitted him in the travers


i agree that he's going to be a tough customer in the classic..with 10 weeks (vs 11 for the travers) till that race and with his last 2 wins at extended distances think he will hit it in perfect condition..santa anita can only help things with it's speed favoring surface

[str]

thanks str and glad you agree the way he ran in the belmont could have benefitted him in the travers


i agree that he's going to be a tough customer in the classic..with 10 weeks (vs 11 for the travers) till that race and with his last 2 wins at extended distances think he will hit it in perfect condition..santa anita can only help things with it's speed favoring surface

Agree with SA favoring speed as well.

Early look might be an exacta with Arcangelo, White Abarrio (homer pick) but ran huge for Ricky, and Tapit Trice. Probably save only with Tapit on top but putting him 2nd or 3rd in exactas or a tri might bring in a nice price. Still have to see who Bob has on the front end but it's fun to think about this early. All depends on what they would pay though. No value, no play.
Thanks JBEX

[JBEX]

switching the topic to kingsbarns (who dat lol) if things are going well have to think they might want him to resume at gulfstream where he broke his maiden.. the perfect spot would be an OCn3xot or a listed stakes before he tries better horses..if todd's planning to do thatdoes (can) he know already where they'll be a spot for him at the winter meet or will he have to wait 2-4 months to see the condition book? I guess with listed or graded stakes he could just look at last years calender..an allowance OC might be something he has to wait to find out

[JBEX]

army mule alert !

KD R9 #1 dance macabre (4-1) 5:54

a grade 3 worth $1M even !! he won here as last year at the same distance..amazingly consistent runner and probably the best one of his first crop

[BOA12]

army mule alert !

KD R9 #1 dance macabre (4-1) 5:54

a grade 3 worth $1M even !! he won here as last year at the same distance..amazingly consistent runner and probably the best one of his first crop

I think the Guru is due, I'm joining you.

BOL 2US ALL!

[JBEX]

I think the Guru is due, I'm joining you.

BOL 2US ALL!

I think due happened yesterday at saratoga lol but this would be a nice win




https://youtu.be/oZ62MOvS2hQ?si=K1LYqwmVZ96uQTRC

[BOA12]

I think due happened yesterday at saratoga lol but this would be a nice win




https://youtu.be/oZ62MOvS2hQ?si=K1LYqwmVZ96uQTRC

One great smile, leaves me grinning. LOL.

He sang the Rawhide Theme Song made famous again by the Blues Brothers.

[JBEX]

One great smile, leaves me grinning. LOL.

He sang the Rawhide Theme Song made famous again by the Blues Brothers.

wasn't aware of that but knew of the artist..without cheating was that one of clint eastwood's early shows ? happy I'm slightly lol to young to remember that (at least well)

[BOA12]

wasn't aware of that but knew of the artist..without cheating was that one of clint eastwood's early shows ? happy I'm slightly lol to young to remember that (at least well)

Rowdy Yates? was his character.

Keep them doggies rolling, rawhide.

Don't try to understand 'em, just rope 'em up and brand 'em.

[JBEX]

Rowdy Yates? was his character.

Keep them doggies rolling, rawhide.

Don't try to understand 'em, just rope 'em up and brand 'em.

https://youtu.be/Uw_w-L9SdIM?si=dagt1k3mibE1ZzyR

[str]

army mule alert !

KD R9 #1 dance macabre (4-1) 5:54

a grade 3 worth $1M even !! he won here as last year at the same distance..amazingly consistent runner and probably the best one of his first crop

Thanks JBEX.

Really consistent horse. Very solid.

Tough group but this one looks like it belongs in there.

GL if you play.

[str]

Rawhide.

Rowdy Yates.

Back in the black and white days of TV.

Who knew Rowdy would end up Inspector Callahan after a stint of not having a name at all. Lol.

Man were they all great movies.

Hope you all win at the races today. Ya feelin lucky punk!

[str]

switching the topic to kingsbarns (who dat lol) if things are going well have to think they might want him to resume at gulfstream where he broke his maiden.. the perfect spot would be an OCn3xot or a listed stakes before he tries better horses..if todd's planning to do thatdoes (can) he know already where they'll be a spot for him at the winter meet or will he have to wait 2-4 months to see the condition book? I guess with listed or graded stakes he could just look at last years calender..an allowance OC might be something he has to wait to find out

He won't know yet but that is fine. I assume that the Gulfstream condition book for January would be released around early November. Typically, a tracks first book for a meeting comes out many weeks before the meet starts, and from there, after all the stakes are announced, the exact book 2,3,4,etc. come out as the races start running in the previous book. So 2-3 weeks beforehand. For the trainer, once he or she sees a race and distance date they can kind of count on it repeating in book two on an approximate timeframe. If it's imperative they know before that, they can always ask the racing secretary as they usually write several books in advance and massage those exact dates slightly before the release of book 2 and up start getting printed.

Todd will have plenty of time to point to whatever he is thinking. You really do not have a set time in place until they have trained for about 45-60 days. Then you start to project in a best case scenario and adjust if needed.

Really hope this horse relaxes and gets back to his early styles. Otherwise I'm afraid he will get caught up in the speed deal which will most likely not be the optimum road traveled.

Here's hoping JBEX.

[str]

He won't know yet but that is fine. I assume that the Gulfstream condition book for January would be released around early November. Typically, a tracks first book for a meeting comes out many weeks before the meet starts, and from there, after all the stakes are announced, the exact book 2,3,4,etc. come out as the races start running in the previous book. So 2-3 weeks beforehand. For the trainer, once he or she sees a race and distance date they can kind of count on it repeating in book two on an approximate timeframe. If it's imperative they know before that, they can always ask the racing secretary as they usually write several books in advance and massage those exact dates slightly before the release of book 2 and up start getting printed.

Todd will have plenty of time to point to whatever he is thinking. You really do not have a set time in place until they have trained for about 45-60 days. Then you start to project in a best case scenario and adjust if needed.

Really hope this horse relaxes and gets back to his early styles. Otherwise I'm afraid he will get caught up in the speed deal which will most likely not be the optimum road traveled.

Here's hoping JBEX.

Adding to this, and I sure do hope it is not the case, but he wouldn't be the first very talented horse to get cooked mentally with speed. Todd is giving him every chance possible to develop into something special. Can't ask for more than that.

[JBEX]

Adding to this, and I sure do hope it is not the case, but he wouldn't be the first very talented horse to get cooked mentally with speed. Todd is giving him every chance possible to develop into something special. Can't ask for more than that.

I think he will.. hitting the derby off his previous 2 races (career 2nd and 3rd starts) was a little much for him ..not only the inexperience but the type of races they were.. maybe a little aggression carried over into the haskell prep race also which you thought might be the case..i'm sure spendthrift wants him to be part of their stallion roster when he's through.. probably chillin' out their now till he resumes training

[JBEX]

He won't know yet but that is fine. I assume that the Gulfstream condition book for January would be released around early November. Typically, a tracks first book for a meeting comes out many weeks before the meet starts, and from there, after all the stakes are announced, the exact book 2,3,4,etc. come out as the races start running in the previous book. So 2-3 weeks beforehand. For the trainer, once he or she sees a race and distance date they can kind of count on it repeating in book two on an approximate timeframe. If it's imperative they know before that, they can always ask the racing secretary as they usually write several books in advance and massage those exact dates slightly before the release of book 2 and up start getting printed.

Todd will have plenty of time to point to whatever he is thinking. You really do not have a set time in place until they have trained for about 45-60 days. Then you start to project in a best case scenario and adjust if needed.

Really hope this horse relaxes and gets back to his early styles. Otherwise I'm afraid he will get caught up in the speed deal which will most likely not be the optimum road traveled.

Here's hoping JBEX.

thanks str ..have to think they must be aware that todd may want to run him there and the type of races where he'd fit well.. a top condition allowance race around 2 turns would seem to be something that would appeal to a lot of returning stakes horses although a lot wouldn't qualify on the n3xot condition ..might be written more loosely to allow for a bigger field

[JBEX]

army mule


kentucky downs

R8 #4 sicilian grandma (3-1) 5:21

[JBEX]

tony dutrow (1) and michelle nevin (3) going in the last at saratoga ..both look good to me and don't think anyone will be able to stay with the latter ..probably needed her last and pace was very fast

[str]

army mule


kentucky downs

R8 #4 sicilian grandma (3-1) 5:21

Missed the race. Saw the chart.

She looks to have hurt herself early on. Hope she is OK.

[str]

tony dutrow (1) and michelle nevin (3) going in the last at saratoga ..both look good to me and don't think anyone will be able to stay with the latter ..probably needed her last and pace was very fast

Nice call JBEX. Michelle's horse with a race under her belt was a solid play. She ran real well.

Tony's took too long to get going.

[JBEX]

Missed the race. Saw the chart.

She looks to have hurt herself early on. Hope she is OK.

yes hopefully nothing serious..I guess you can hurt yourself and still cross the wire 50 -100 lengths behind winner..is this a sign it might be less of a debilitating injury ?

[JBEX]

Nice call JBEX. Michelle's horse with a race under her belt was a solid play. She ran real well.

Tony's took too long to get going.

thanks str ..agree on tony's horse..was thinking it'd be cool if somewhere down the road via claim or purchase one of the dutrow brother's got hold of an army mule..if you were still training would you consider keeping an eye out for one running at a mid-atlantic track..realize it would only be one of the criteria to claim it