[str]

so could be one of those ,there's potential to attract jv , and if it does go well he'll have the mount on a potentially very nice horse
..I think with his 1st 2 races that's enough to make him interesting.. the fact it was a grass race last out might explain katie davis riding..weren't really expecting a good effort..did get 6f in under 1:11 that race so couldn't be bad as a conditioner

thanks str

Yes. That better turf effort could be the horses mind at work as he tries to get past that fall, if indeed that is the problem. Seems like it. Nice to see the very sharp workout about 11 days ago as well. It gives optimistic hope the horse can improve.

[JBEX]

reminds me a little of shadow dragon earlier in the year..the nyb army mule trained by mott who ran a bad race after breaking his maiden impressively (far back early) first out..he ships him down to gulfstream and just misses in the holy bull @ big odds..kept the faith he was a good horse

[str]

The Belmont:
On paper, just paper, National Treasure makes the lead fairly comfortably and tries to slow it down. If so, he can hang around a long time.
But... I can't imagine that a trainer that has 3 horses in the race, would want to stalk a slow pace with two of them and have one closer as well. It doesn't make any sense. That trainers best shot on paper is with the closer. So he lets Nat. Treasure walk the dog early? I doubt it.
The tough thing about betting into a race and using what you THINK a strategy MIGHT be, is you have to be right twice with the strategy AND the pick. The game is tough enough to be right once. But I cannot imagine looking back at that race afterwards if I am Brad Cox and talking it over with myself and saying, yeah, letting the solo leader crawl was the right move.
That said, I don't think he has much choice. Not that Nat. Treasure is the best horse. I don't think he is. He might be the 4th or 5th best horse in here. But solo leads and slow fractions make good horses look great at times.


So I am going to hope for a fair, not fast, but at least a fair pace which allows everyone to have a chance. A Fast pace would be even better. That makes my choices an exacta box of the 3-7-8.

The 3, Arcangelo, is bred to love this distance. At a decent price, which I think he will be, I'll use him.

The 7, Hit Show ran a nice Derby considering the way too fast early pace. And yes, he was 8th early, but always fairly close to the front. He held on very well considering the pace and he as well, is bred to run this distance all day long.

The 8, Angel Of Empire, is solid. Adds blinkers today but apparently, he has trained in them for a long time. He was indeed impressive in his races leading up to the Derby and ran well in the Derby.

To put one horse on top, I go for a price and take Arcangelo.

Good luck everyone !

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR thx for your picks. Yeah I read that Angel of Empire trains in blinkers and that Prat suggested to Cox that he use them. Interesting race. See what happens about 7PM. And Tom Durkin is back calling the Belmont on FOX Sports.

[JBEX]

hey str


just in case you didn't know federal judge (army mule who won first out at op) is going in the woody stephens and
RDJ has white abarrio in the met mile

[str]

hey str


just in case you didn't know federal judge (army mule who won first out at op) is going in the woody stephens and
RDJ has white abarrio in the met mile

I did know about both of these.

But thank you for letting me know.

A lot of times I don't. Just happened to look at the whole card today.

Thanks again JBEX !

[JBEX]

I did know about both of these.

But thank you for letting me know.

A lot of times I don't. Just happened to look at the whole card today.

Thanks again JBEX !

no problem str.. have no major opinion on either race but will be rooting for them both.. think they both have a decent shot

[Easy-Rider 66]

The Belmont:
On paper, just paper, National Treasure makes the lead fairly comfortably and tries to slow it down. If so, he can hang around a long time.
But... I can't imagine that a trainer that has 3 horses in the race, would want to stalk a slow pace with two of them and have one closer as well. It doesn't make any sense. That trainers best shot on paper is with the closer. So he lets Nat. Treasure walk the dog early? I doubt it.
The tough thing about betting into a race and using what you THINK a strategy MIGHT be, is you have to be right twice with the strategy AND the pick. The game is tough enough to be right once. But I cannot imagine looking back at that race afterwards if I am Brad Cox and talking it over with myself and saying, yeah, letting the solo leader crawl was the right move.
That said, I don't think he has much choice. Not that Nat. Treasure is the best horse. I don't think he is. He might be the 4th or 5th best horse in here. But solo leads and slow fractions make good horses look great at times.


So I am going to hope for a fair, not fast, but at least a fair pace which allows everyone to have a chance. A Fast pace would be even better. That makes my choices an exacta box of the 3-7-8.

The 3, Arcangelo, is bred to love this distance. At a decent price, which I think he will be, I'll use him.

The 7, Hit Show ran a nice Derby considering the way too fast early pace. And yes, he was 8th early, but always fairly close to the front. He held on very well considering the pace and he as well, is bred to run this distance all day long.

The 8, Angel Of Empire, is solid. Adds blinkers today but apparently, he has trained in them for a long time. He was indeed impressive in his races leading up to the Derby and ran well in the Derby.

To put one horse on top, I go for a price and take Arcangelo.

Good luck everyone !

good call STR.

[mrginandtonic]

Nice pick STR!!

[JBEX]

nice call str

[str]

good call STR.

Nice pick STR!!

nice call str

Thanks guys !

The exacta was looking pretty good at the 1/16th pole. Just couldn't hang on.

Really glad to see a woman trainer win a Belmont. This stuff about the 1st woman to win it is kind of a joke. It is not ability , it's opportunity when it comes to women at the track. Most horses prefer women to most men as far as comfort zone is concerned. Horses feel vibes, and men, especially short tempered, gruff men, are not exactly comforting to a horse. In fact, just the opposite. Some of the best grooms, and assistants I ever had were females.
One day, the world just might catch up to that.

Thanks again guys!

[JBEX]

Thanks guys !

The exacta was looking pretty good at the 1/16th pole. Just couldn't hang on.

Really glad to see a woman trainer win a Belmont. This stuff about the 1st woman to win it is kind of a joke. It is not ability , it's opportunity when it comes to women at the track. Most horses prefer women to most men as far as comfort zone is concerned. Horses feel vibes, and men, especially short tempered, gruff men, are not exactly comforting to a horse. In fact, just the opposite. Some of the best grooms, and assistants I ever had were females.
One day, the world just might catch up to that.

Thanks again guys!

love to see linda rice win one..been around a long time and has had a great career notching a lot stakes races over the decades..don't think there's another woman close to having her accomplishments ..most likely to get that caliber of horse imo

[str]

love to see linda rice win one..been around a long time and has had a great career notching a lot stakes races over the decades..don't think there's another woman close to having her accomplishments ..most likely to get that caliber of horse imo

Agree. In her case though, she will always have that stigma that certain people have that classifies her as a "claiming trainer" which is so totally wrong on many levels. While it is well known amongst trainers that that is a total joke, some high end owners have a tough time getting past it.
Some of the best trainers I ever competed against were primarily claiming trainers. Delp was. Frankel was. Many others as well. That was who their cliental was.
Some of the poorest trainers ability wise I was ever around and competed against had high end horses. It was and I have to think still is one of the most backwards thought processes in racing. But it absolutely exists.
Only in horse racing can so many smart people with big money become so dumb when it comes to trainer selection.

[JBEX]

I've definitely noticed in recent years(and possibly further back than that) she has gotten much better stock to work with..maybe with this belmont in the spotlight she'll pick up a client or two who'll bring her some horses with above avg potential..realize that's no guarantee that they're going to be runners but certainly ups the chances .. time will tell

[StackinGreen]

I had 3-6-8 in a tri box and Tapit Trice, darn that wise guy, got up to mess up a $5 ticket that likely would have been around $700.

It was a great race and I'm happy for the connections.

By the way, Carla Gaines is a good trainer out west. She picks her spots and I've had some really good prices while paying attention to what she's doing/who she is entering.

BOL to all, especially this summer and at the BC!

[JBEX]

I had 3-6-8 in a tri box and Tapit Trice, darn that wise guy, got up to mess up a $5 ticket that likely would have been around $700.

It was a great race and I'm happy for the connections.

By the way, Carla Gaines is a good trainer out west. She picks her spots and I've had some really good prices while paying attention to what she's doing/who she is entering.

BOL to all, especially this summer and at the BC!

too bad .. very close to a nice score in the triple

don't follow west coast as much but I agree her name comes to mind as a very solid trainer..if I had to add a 3rd it would be brittany russell in maryland..not around as long as our two but she always seems to be tearing it up over there


.

[str]

I've definitely noticed in recent years(and possibly further back than that) she has gotten much better stock to work with..maybe with this belmont in the spotlight she'll pick up a client or two who'll bring her some horses with above avg potential..realize that's no guarantee that they're going to be runners but certainly ups the chances .. time will tell

I hope she does. She has certainly earned it.

[str]

I had 3-6-8 in a tri box and Tapit Trice, darn that wise guy, got up to mess up a $5 ticket that likely would have been around $700.

It was a great race and I'm happy for the connections.

By the way, Carla Gaines is a good trainer out west. She picks her spots and I've had some really good prices while paying attention to what she's doing/who she is entering.

BOL to all, especially this summer and at the BC!

So close. That last 70 yards was a bitch.

I don't follow the west coast much at all but good to hear. Female trainers are every bit as qualified as men, and more so sometimes.

Good to hear from you Stackin. Nice try in the Belmont.

[str]

too bad .. very close to a nice score in the triple

don't follow west coast as much but I agree her name comes to mind as a very solid trainer..if I had to add a 3rd it would be brittany russell in maryland..not around as long as our two but she always seems to be tearing it up over there


.

I do not know her at all but she has and is putting up some real nice numbers.

I guess it's not as bad as it used to be but never let a female trainer stop you from playing a horse. If anything, give it a 2nd look.

[JBEX]

saturday mth R10 pegasus stakes


kingsbarns

[JBEX]

saturday mth R10 pegasus stakes


kingsbarns

have to think

there's no question that he's 100% recovered from the colic


running only 1 week later than the belmont that his training up to that race plus his derby effort
will play into his fitness heading into this race .. obviously you would know better than me but I'd have to think the way he ran in the derby (factoring hot pace) is a nice set up to go 8.5f vs the type of horses in this race..of course the purse for this race is 90% less than the belmont and his odds will reflect that

[str]

saturday mth R10 pegasus stakes


kingsbarns

have to think

there's no question that he's 100% recovered from the colic


running only 1 week later than the belmont that his training up to that race plus his derby effort
will play into his fitness heading into this race .. obviously you would know better than me but I'd have to think the way he ran in the derby (factoring hot pace) is a nice set up to go 8.5f vs the type of horses in this race..of course the purse for this race is 90% less than the belmont and his odds will reflect that

Yes. 100% recovered. Colic is one of those things that when it hits you, you are in pain and potential real trouble. But once it is gone, which is usually an impactment where the horse cannot crap allowing the problem to worsen, the horse gets better very quickly. Kind of like terrible gas pains for us, but colic can kill.

So you have to take it step by step for about a week or 10 days and make sure the horse is all finished with that. These horses get their temperature taken and noted every morning. The amount of feed is well documented for each horse daily. There is a lot of information that all needs to regulate before you increase the exercise. Sounds like this was over quickly, thank goodness.

So he is certainly 100% over the colic. But IMO , and just a guess, he probably goes into this race at about 85%. Mainly due to the easy breeze in all probability first back and I assume work two was a slowish 1/2 mile work that was a strong gallop out upwards to 7/8ths or even a mile.

Todd would not be running him if he wasn't ready physically but he should be better for his next start than this one. Again, a guess. But that makes sense.

That is why the bit of class relief that I suggested when we talked about this is a good thing. Moving forward, I'm not sure we have seen him run at 100% yet. He was probably real close to that in the Derby but the pace was too much to overcome.
Playing catch up all spring and now this. Hopefully he comes out of this well and can string 2-3 races where Todd wants to run him, not where Todd has to run him. That should tell the tail.

Excited to see him run.

Thanks for the heads up JBEX !

[JBEX]

Yes. 100% recovered. Colic is one of those things that when it hits you, you are in pain and potential real trouble. But once it is gone, which is usually an impactment where the horse cannot crap allowing the problem to worsen, the horse gets better very quickly. Kind of like terrible gas pains for us, but colic can kill.

So you have to take it step by step for about a week or 10 days and make sure the horse is all finished with that. These horses get their temperature taken and noted every morning. The amount of feed is well documented for each horse daily. There is a lot of information that all needs to regulate before you increase the exercise. Sounds like this was over quickly, thank goodness.

So he is certainly 100% over the colic. But IMO , and just a guess, he probably goes into this race at about 85%. Mainly due to the easy breeze in all probability first back and I assume work two was a slowish 1/2 mile work that was a strong gallop out upwards to 7/8ths or even a mile.

Todd would not be running him if he wasn't ready physically but he should be better for his next start than this one. Again, a guess. But that makes sense.

That is why the bit of class relief that I suggested when we talked about this is a good thing. Moving forward, I'm not sure we have seen him run at 100% yet. He was probably real close to that in the Derby but the pace was too much to overcome.
Playing catch up all spring and now this. Hopefully he comes out of this well and can string 2-3 races where Todd wants to run him, not where Todd has to run him. That should tell the tail.

Excited to see him run.

Thanks for the heads up JBEX !

no problem str

was thinking that by chance this might not be the worst change of path .. the impressive msw win followed by beating an easy bunch of alw horses at tampa..then wiring a field on the front end of a slow pace in the la derby..different world being on the front end of a fast paced ky derby and he held pretty well through 9f considering..think this winds up being a more sensible spot even though it was not the original plan of running in the belmont..IF he's not 100% (as you said might be the case) condition-wise a good effort would be a positive

thanks str


.

[JBEX]

based on the forecast for friday and saturday there's a good chance it'll be an off track..friday's will be much heavier if things happen the way they say so maybe a shot the track will at least be rated good

[JBEX]

8-5 morning line..would have thought a little higher

[JBEX]

another positive aspect is saez is riding .. he hasnt been aboard since his msw debut win in jan which to me was by far his most impressive effort ..I'm factoring in the trip,difficult layout and distance of the race (1 mile) ..would be my #1 choice to ride him in this spot



sorry I'm doing this in pieces..sometimes in too much of a rush to post




.

[lesterdymond]

Don’t laugh guys but if this is Q & A can you tell me why you would key box an exacta ?

[str]

another positive aspect is saez is riding .. he hasnt been aboard since his msw debut win in jan which to me was by far his most impressive effort ..I'm factoring in the trip,difficult layout and distance of the race (1 mile) ..would be my #1 choice to ride him in this spot



sorry I'm doing this in pieces..sometimes in too much of a rush to post




.

Never as problem JBEX. I appreciate the info as it comes in. You are way ahead of me on that stuff so that helps me along the way.

Nice to see Saez back on him. Hopefully that stays consistent for a while.

[str]

Don’t laugh guys but if this is Q & A can you tell me why you would key box an exacta ?

If you were referring to my Belmont choices what I meant was to box the 3-7-8. Not a key, just a simple box of all three.

That way if the 3 didn't fire, I was still in the game with a similar running style horse (7) and a closer(8), because I decided I would trust the 1 horse to go early which I mentioned.

If I was doing that myself typically it would probably have been a five dollar exacta box and a twenty dollar win bet. Something like that.


That assured me that if the 3 won, I would make money. If it ran out, I still had a swing with the 7 and the 8.

Had I just loved the 3 horse and that was that, I would have played more on the win and boxed the 3 with the 7 and the 3 with the 8. I would not have played a 7-8, 8-7 ticket loving the 3 horse.

But what I wanted to do for those reading was to give them my choices of a winner and an exacta box scenario.

Hope that makes sense.

[JBEX]

seeing latest forecast more optimistic it'll be at least a "good" track

[str]

seeing latest forecast more optimistic it'll be at least a "good" track

His fifth start at his fifth racing surface. Pretty incredible.

I won't be able to see it live but will catch a replay.

Kind of like that outside post for his head more than anything after that last mess. Should be able to sit wherever he wants (3rd)maybe, and have every chance to run on when asked.
It will be fun to watch.

Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

His fifth start at his fifth racing surface. Pretty incredible.

I won't be able to see it live but will catch a replay.

Kind of like that outside post for his head more than anything after that last mess. Should be able to sit wherever he wants (3rd)maybe, and have every chance to run on when asked.
It will be fun to watch.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str


yeah by the 5th start and none at same track is pretty amazing.. agree a bout the outside post.. world of difference in a relatively small field vs having a middle post in the derby..lots of speed/stalkers in this field but I think saez will get him in a good spot going into the 1st turn and, as you said, potential for a nice stalking trip.. looking forward to see him run!

[JBEX]

one other thing of interest..army mule has a first time starter 2yo filly at ellis park (churchill meet)..admittedly haven't been following this for a while


R2 #8 miss saipan (10-1) 2:20

maiden claiming $40k @ 5f ..lands the best jockey in the race (tyler) so that's a little interesting





.

[JBEX]

think the 7 being so aggressive led to saez moving earlier than he wanted to on the turn.. thought it was a good effort that Todd's probably happy with and as you said he may not have been @ 100% conditioning wise

take nothing away from the winner who ran a great race..big time pedigree on him so he could be something really good also

[str]

think the 7 being so aggressive led to saez moving earlier than he wanted to on the turn.. thought it was a good effort that Todd's probably happy with and as you said he may not have been @ 100% conditioning wise

take nothing away from the winner who ran a great race..big time pedigree on him so he could be something really good also

The seven could have caused the rider to think that but I did not care for the overall aggression I saw. He was not like that prior to the Derby. IMO, he needs to get back to relaxing more early. No reason for him to be on the bit down the backside like he was.

He looked like he was tired even putting away the speed horse when they were well in front of the rest. That is a sign of too much strain early. And while I am sure he was not 100%, he still could have relaxed more. He will need to if he is to improve the rest of the year.

He will be a better horse next out but all that goes away if he burns forward energy when it isn't needed. Hope he gets himself settled training in the AM. It will need to happen IMO.

Winner ran great. Hats off to him.