[JBEX]

Like carrying 126 lbs. isn't tough enough.

Horse is picking up more weight to carry everyday.

well at least the athlete isn't aware of it lol

[JBEX]

do you think by his demeanor (way he stayed cool in the gate at the la derby) that he might handle the crowds and hoopla better than the average horse ?

[JBEX]

do you think by his demeanor (way he stayed cool in the gate at the la derby) that he might handle the crowds and hoopla better than the average horse ?

for those who don't know the horse next to him reared up and caused quite a ruckus

[str]

do you think by his demeanor (way he stayed cool in the gate at the la derby) that he might handle the crowds and hoopla better than the average horse ?

for those who don't know the horse next to him reared up and caused quite a ruckus

That is always another hurdle that these horses face.

From what I saw, it showed me he is a very smart horse. And it was confirmed yesterday by someone who certainly knows great horses that indeed all those great horses he rode did have one thing in common. They were all very intelligent.

So KB has that going for him. As to will he or any particular horse definitely handle it ? Nobody knows for sure. Just another test they have to try and pass. But at least he has a decent chance to.

[JBEX]

That is always another hurdle that these horses face.

From what I saw, it showed me he is a very smart horse. And it was confirmed yesterday by someone who certainly knows great horses that indeed all those great horses he rode did have one thing in common. They were all very intelligent.

So KB has that going for him. As to will he or any particular horse definitely handle it ? Nobody knows for sure. Just another test they have to try and pass. But at least he has a decent chance to.

thanks str


there is a future's bet for the preakness that closes about an hour before the derby.. KB currently sitting at 19-1

[JBEX]

KB post 6

[str]

KB post 6

You never know how that will work out but it looks like, (and I want to see the form with the actual lineup which helps me lay the race out better)2-3 potential speeds have drawn inside of KB and certainly the Japanese horse drew the 17 .

I think there will be more speed in here than people think.

[Easy-Rider 66]

You never know how that will work out but it looks like, (and I want to see the form with the actual lineup which helps me lay the race out better)2-3 potential speeds have drawn inside of KB and certainly the Japanese horse drew the 17 .

I think there will be more speed in here than people think.

Hey STR:

After you look over the PP's interested to get your thoughts on the race. THX in advance.

[JBEX]

You never know how that will work out but it looks like, (and I want to see the form with the actual lineup which helps me lay the race out better)2-3 potential speeds have drawn inside of KB and certainly the Japanese horse drew the 17 .

I think there will be more speed in here than people think.

I think 7 8 10 all have potential to get to the lead or stay close..that puts a lot of the speed inside..I agree that this lack of speed that many seem to think isn't so

[str]

Hey STR:

After you look over the PP's interested to get your thoughts on the race. THX in advance.

Sure will EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Sure will EZ.

[JBEX]

hey str

how about a 7yo making his 32nd career start trying dirt for the first time ,breaking from10 post (10 field) with a 10 lb bug rider ..last @ churchill paid

$52.64

[JBEX]

hey str

how about a 7yo making his 32nd career start trying dirt for the first time ,breaking from10 post (10 field) with a 10 lb bug rider ..last @ churchill paid

$52.64

claimed last out

[str]

hey str

how about a 7yo making his 32nd career start trying dirt for the first time ,breaking from10 post (10 field) with a 10 lb bug rider ..last @ churchill paid

$52.64

claimed last out

That is really odd to have never run on dirt before.

I see a claim was voided a couple races back. Wonder if it was the same guy that tried previously?
I never raced with that rule. Sure makes the claiming game safer and less of a gamble.

And bled through lasix was the reason for the void. That's strike one on a 3 strike your out rule. If that would happen again, he would be off for I think 60 days, which he would need anyway but a year out if it happened a 3rd time.


Looking at the horses figures, speed, whatever, the horse seemed to belong in this race. Not sure why he was not bet more. Maybe being outside and a 10 lb. bug just made him a horse to glance at and toss.

Great claim for the trainer. He is out and paid for now so interesting where he runs back.

Thanks JBEX.

[str]

Just an observation and not a pick or knock on any horse in the Derby:



I have been looking around and listening to several of the handicappers talk about the Derby and the one word that always comes flying out is "FAST". And in this years addition , it is "he don't look that fast".

I think what gets lost in all this is that the riders are ,as Herm Edwards said, "playing to win the game".


I have heard NOBODY mention how fast any horses have come home. Like from the 1/4 pole to the wire. Or the last 1/8th of a mile.
For me, I just don't get that.

And don't get me wrong, figures are fantastic. It has helped improve the game a lot for handicappers. But where did finishing get lost in all this?

I remember doing quick math all the time on closers and how fast they ran the last half mile or quarter mile when I was reading the form. Those were numbers that were right in front of you but you had to do the math yourself.

So while I applaud the number assignment thing that seemingly every talking head has, I know the game has not changed to the point where closing time does not matter. It really matters.

Good luck everyone.



One last thing.

Practical Move had to be scratched. Pigpen, what a nice play at 83-1. I applaud you for that. Yeah, futures are a bitch. But nice pick man.

Same goes for JBEX and some others I have seen have futures running on Saturday. I think you should get you money back if they even get entered. It is THAT tough.

Well done you guys.

[Pigpen]

Mornin STR!!!!

I am gearing up for today and tomorrow. What a kick to the balls yesterday when I learn PM spiked a fever and scratched. I truly liked his chances. Thanks for the kudos. I am having a gathering tomorrow at my house (approx. 12-15 people) and I wanted to have braggin rights after he won!!!!! Not to be so we move on. Along with JBEX I have a ticket on Disarm from pool 4 (I think) @ 50-1. I think JBEX has a better number from another pool. Good luck today and tomorrow. I will be popping onto the horse forum all day today as I am home and will be playing this Oaks card.

[JBEX]

That is really odd to have never run on dirt before.

I see a claim was voided a couple races back. Wonder if it was the same guy that tried previously?
I never raced with that rule. Sure makes the claiming game safer and less of a gamble.

And bled through lasix was the reason for the void. That's strike one on a 3 strike your out rule. If that would happen again, he would be off for I think 60 days, which he would need anyway but a year out if it happened a 3rd time.


Looking at the horses figures, speed, whatever, the horse seemed to belong in this race. Not sure why he was not bet more. Maybe being outside and a 10 lb. bug just made him a horse to glance at and toss.

Great claim for the trainer. He is out and paid for now so interesting where he runs back.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str

always wondered what that "v" was and that's an important thing to know


as you mentioned he's paid for with the win and actually they about doubled what they claimed him for with the huge purses there ..nice score for them regardless of the bleeding issue


numbers were good especially if you discard his last race at a mile..10lb bug from the 10 post you deserve to rewarded


thanks str

[JBEX]

anthony dutrow got win #2000 today at belmont in R3..he was interviewed after the race and you can see it on today's "america's day at the races" on you tube.. congrats as I know that must mean a lot to you



.

[str]

anthony dutrow got win #2000 today at belmont in R3..he was interviewed after the race and you can see it on today's "america's day at the races" on you tube.. congrats as I know that must mean a lot to you
.

I did not know he was running today.

THANK YOU for letting me know!!!!

I had promised him I would call when he as soon as he won back in the winter.

Really glad I was able to so fast.

And yeah, it means a lot.

I'll go watch it now.

Thanks again JBEX .

[JBEX]

I did not know he was running today.

THANK YOU for letting me know!!!!

I had promised him I would call when he as soon as he won back in the winter.

Really glad I was able to so fast.

And yeah, it means a lot.

I'll go watch it now.

Thanks again JBEX .

no problem str


just saw an odds update..kingsbarns is 11-1 in the early betting

[str]

no problem str


just saw an odds update..kingsbarns is 11-1 in the early betting

That is disappointing.

[JBEX]

That is disappointing.

probably only around 5% will come in today but that's still a bunch of money..honestly if he wound up in the 20's I'd be worried that somethings up but mid -high teens would be perfect

[str]

Derby Day.

I'm sure you have read it somewhere but it seems particularly true this year.

This race is wide open. I think if they ran this 10 times you would have 8 or 9 different winners. But with that said, nobody wants to hear that. Whose going to win?
Here is my take:

If you have read this thread you already know where I am going.

Kingsbarns to win.

He has little experience, Apollo curse going against him, will in all probability be down inside eating dirt early with early movers running up to his outside. That is enough to get almost any horse with only 3 starts beat. Then why pick him?
Because I think he has more upside potential than any other horse in the race. Will that matter today? I don't know, probably not. But being as he ran faster than any horse in this Derby through the stretch and was roused to do so but not all out to do so, he is my pick.

There are plenty of others with decent chances.

I won't go down the whole list . I'll sound like a broken record. They almost all have several reasons why they can win and at least a couple why they might not.

If anyone wants me to talk about any horse in particular, please let me know.

Also, just saw Forte is scratched. Sounds like he stumbled a bit I'm guessing, and grabbed his right front quarter with his hind show mid stride. Kind of like tearing off a finger nail or tearing the skin under the nail. It gets very sore to the touch or to run on and that lasts about 5-7 days. That is why the 3/4rd his shoe yesterday to take pressure off it but once the bute given for todays race wore off from yesterday, sounds like he was just to tender to go.

Tough business.

GL everyone. Enjoy the day.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR thx and GL. #6 is one of the horses I am playing to win. see what goes down.

[mrginandtonic]

Derby Day.

I'm sure you have read it somewhere but it seems particularly true this year.

This race is wide open. I think if they ran this 10 times you would have 8 or 9 different winners. But with that said, nobody wants to hear that. Whose going to win?
Here is my take:

If you have read this thread you already know where I am going.

Kingsbarns to win.

He has little experience, Apollo curse going against him, will in all probability be down inside eating dirt early with early movers running up to his outside. That is enough to get almost any horse with only 3 starts beat. Then why pick him?
Because I think he has more upside potential than any other horse in the race. Will that matter today? I don't know, probably not. But being as he ran faster than any horse in this Derby through the stretch and was roused to do so but not all out to do so, he is my pick.

There are plenty of others with decent chances.

I won't go down the whole list . I'll sound like a broken record. They almost all have several reasons why they can win and at least a couple why they might not.

If anyone wants me to talk about any horse in particular, please let me know.

Also, just saw Forte is scratched. Sounds like he stumbled a bit I'm guessing, and grabbed his right front quarter with his hind show mid stride. Kind of like tearing off a finger nail or tearing the skin under the nail. It gets very sore to the touch or to run on and that lasts about 5-7 days. That is why the 3/4rd his shoe yesterday to take pressure off it but once the bute given for todays race wore off from yesterday, sounds like he was just to tender to go.

Tough business.

GL everyone. Enjoy the day.

Thank you STR, I would like to know what is your take on the 14- Angel of Empire. I am not picking him, but I think he is the current favorite and the Oaks/Derby Double, he actually pays the least (even less than Forte).

Thanks in advance.

[str]

Thank you STR, I would like to know what is your take on the 14- Angel of Empire. I am not picking him, but I think he is the current favorite and the Oaks/Derby Double, he actually pays the least (even less than Forte).

Thanks in advance.

Angel Of Empire was very impressive winning his last race. Came home real fast and not in a full drive. I would not be at all surprised if he won, other than KB getting beat. But we have already talked about his lack of experience.

Angel of Empire's run through the stretch left Flavian Prat no choice but to choose him to ride. It was a very impressive move and I am not surprised he is taking plenty of money. Not sure why he was paying less than Forte in the doubles but I can't remember the last time I heard so little about a favorite leading up the the Derby than I did with Forte.

Every horse in here has their reasons they can win but also knocks against them. In Angel's case, his Dosage index goes against what you look for at this distance is what I heard. And while I put stock in that, it is kind of hard for me to hear the distance is an issue off that last race. So I look at that with some skepticism.

Now that he is bet down, I would not use him. The race is too wide open to settle for a lower price IMO. But on form, there isn't much there to dislike.

[mrginandtonic]

Angel Of Empire was very impressive winning his last race. Came home real fast and not in a full drive. I would not be at all surprised if he won, other than KB getting beat. But we have already talked about his lack of experience.

Angel of Empire's run through the stretch left Flavian Prat no choice but to choose him to ride. It was a very impressive move and I am not surprised he is taking plenty of money. Not sure why he was paying less than Forte in the doubles but I can't remember the last time I heard so little about a favorite leading up the the Derby than I did with Forte.

Every horse in here has their reasons they can win but also knocks against them. In Angel's case, his Dosage index goes against what you look for at this distance is what I heard. And while I put stock in that, it is kind of hard for me to hear the distance is an issue off that last race. So I look at that with some skepticism.

Now that he is bet down, I would not use him. The race is too wide open to settle for a lower price IMO. But on form, there isn't much there to dislike.

Thank you very much for your input. I agree that now he is bet down, I would not use him. Also, the dosage thing, hard to go against history. Thank you again.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: Looks like the only horse that had as few as 3 starts(other than the #6) was the Mage. Any thoughts on the derby and why The #6 faded. too fast a pace and inexperience maybe. THX in advance.

[JBEX]

with that extremely fast pace kb was only 1.5L off @ the ¼ pole and 6.5L @ the stretch call ..I calculated him getting 1 1/8
within a few ticks either way of 1:50..I think this was a solid effort under the circumstances..he will probably miss the preakness and be fresh and ready for the belmont..think he'll be a force to be reckoned with 2nd half of the year

[Easy-Rider 66]

At Belmont, Richard Dutrow, Jr. just won with his first starter back after over 10 years away. Improvement first off the claim

[JBEX]

didn't even notice that the big army mule debut winner at oaklawn a few weeks ago won the 1st race at churchill yesterday..federal judge $5.48


3yo alw n1x ot $127k purse

6.5f

[str]

didn't even notice that the big army mule debut winner at oaklawn a few weeks ago won the 1st race at churchill yesterday..federal judge $5.48


3yo alw n1x ot $127k purse

6.5f

I noticed that at the last minute and saw the race.

Very impressive. Man can they run or what?

[str]

At Belmont, Richard Dutrow, Jr. just won with his first starter back after over 10 years away. Improvement first off the claim

When I talked to Tony the other day after he won #2000 he told me about Rick's first horse back and I made it a point to watch that race as well.

He dominated the race. So happy for Rick, his mom and the family.

I saw the interview after and it's the same old Rick . He has never changed who he is and I hope he never does.

Think I said it before but if you ever got to be around him, you would love him.

He is a great horseman EZ.

Thanks for the heads up !

[Easy-Rider 66]

When I talked to Tony the other day after he won #2000 he told me about Rick's first horse back and I made it a point to watch that race as well.

He dominated the race. So happy for Rick, his mom and the family.

I saw the interview after and it's the same old Rick . He has never changed who he is and I hope he never does.

Think I said it before but if you ever got to be around him, you would love him.

He is a great horseman EZ.

Thanks for the heads up !

[str]

Hey STR: Looks like the only horse that had as few as 3 starts(other than the #6) was the Mage. Any thoughts on the derby and why The #6 faded. too fast a pace and inexperience maybe. THX in advance.

I think we can officially put the Apollo curse on the back burner. Not so much because three starts is enough. It's most likely not. But the most seasoned rivals have run about six times. It's not like they have run 8-10 times by now. Doesn't seem like a big difference between 6 and 8 - 10 but it usually is.

As for why Kingsbarns faded. Simply put , he burned waay too much energy very early. Didn't relax at all until he was on the backside. That's 5/8ths or 3/4's of a mile at a full burn. In my mind, it was ridiculous. He was a beaten horse when he went into the first turn EZ.
He did well to hang around as long as he did IMO.