[JBEX]

no problem str

I agree with missing the spot as probably only so many of those races are carded..now if he runs would have to take on the killer open clm n2 or n3 lifetime horses lol..with the big upgrade in purses for msw and alw races (which includes statebreds) arkansas breds imo are much better stock then they were 10-15 years ago
..it's not as big a jump going to opens as it used to be..wouldn't be surprised if she turns up in one of those 2 races

looked at the 1st race and it's making me rethink what I said..it's nowhere near what ny did..I think it's more bigger purses vs incentives and purses like in ny but I could be wrong

[str]

You guys sniffing out any Derby picks?

Would love to hit a nice longshot.

Kingsbarns.


Of course it is Pre post position draw and no rider named with Jose Ortiz open. Jose or his agent must have something to piss Todd off. I guess? That's usually what happens.

But I have to think Todd will name a rider before next Wednesday or Thursday. I would assume he would want the named rider to work Kingsbarns 5/8ths and out 3/4's and 7/8ths then. But... all just a guess.

[str]

looked at the 1st race and it's making me rethink what I said..it's nowhere near what ny did..I think it's more bigger purses vs incentives and purses like in ny but I could be wrong

I don't know anything about the Ark. breds. Just assumed they were weak. Lol.

And yes, NY has come a really long way. Back in the day NY breds were pitiful. Not any more.

Show them the money and they will come.

[JBEX]

1 more newsworthy item that i just saw..klassy bridgette (army mule) will try her luck today stretching out for the first time in a listed stakes at oak

R9 #4 (5-2) @ 5:30

[JBEX]

1 more newsworthy item that i just saw..klassy bridgette (army mule) will try her luck today stretching out for the first time in a listed stakes at oak

R9 #4 (5-2) @ 5:30

I thought that wasn't a bad first attempt..looked like a little bumping at the start and wound up more towards the back then they would have liked..considering the crawl of a pace that wasn't a bad close..don't think she'll have a problem with 2 turns down the road

[JBEX]

another believer KB


https://youtu.be/_az8_Dp7LV4






.

[Pigpen]

another believer KB


https://youtu.be/_az8_Dp7LV4






.

I'm getting excited JB!!!!! Two weeks away. I am meeting a group out to watch.

[JBEX]

I'm getting excited JB!!!!! Two weeks away. I am meeting a group out to watch.

me too pigpen..I have never approached a derby before buying the pp's where I had my mind made up..you also have a top 3 at a tremendous price (practical move @ 83-1) from the future bets ..hopefully one of us lands it and would cap ,no pun intended lol,a nice day for you if he does it when you're out with friends

[str]

1 more newsworthy item that i just saw..klassy bridgette (army mule) will try her luck today stretching out for the first time in a listed stakes at oak

R9 #4 (5-2) @ 5:30

I thought that wasn't a bad first attempt..looked like a little bumping at the start and wound up more towards the back then they would have liked..considering the crawl of a pace that wasn't a bad close..don't think she'll have a problem with 2 turns down the road

They just keep coming.

These AM's are so solid for a cheaper stallion 7.5k-12.5k.

Boys, girls, short, long.

I don't know how you cannot breed to him for that price.

[str]

I'm getting excited JB!!!!! Two weeks away. I am meeting a group out to watch.

me too pigpen..I have never approached a derby before buying the pp's where I had my mind made up..you also have a top 3 at a tremendous price (practical move @ 83-1) from the future bets ..hopefully one of us lands it and would cap ,no pun intended lol,a nice day for you if he does it when you're out with friends

Me three. Really pulling for you guys. I'll be pulling for me too.

[Pigpen]

Me three. Really pulling for you guys. I'll be pulling for me too.

Good luck str!!!!!! It is one of my favorite days of the year along with the BCup. Full fields and large pools.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Kingsbarns.


Of course it is Pre post position draw and no rider named with Jose Ortiz open. Jose or his agent must have something to piss Todd off. I guess? That's usually what happens.

But I have to think Todd will name a rider before next Wednesday or Thursday. I would assume he would want the named rider to work Kingsbarns 5/8ths and out 3/4's and 7/8ths then. But... all just a guess.

Thank you, str.

I'm marking down Kingsbarns. Gonna give him a long look.

[Pigpen]

Good Magic has opened my eyes as a sire. He has Mage in the Derby. I am looking forward to seeing his babies develop.

[mrginandtonic]

Sir STR, I see a lot talks and likes about Kingsbarn, what do you think is a fair odds for him? Thanks in advance

[JBEX]

Good Magic has opened my eyes as a sire. He has Mage in the Derby. I am looking forward to seeing his babies develop.

I've noticed that also pigpen..seems to get a lot of runners..he stands at the same farm as army mule (hill 'n' dale)

[str]

Good Magic has opened my eyes as a sire. He has Mage in the Derby. I am looking forward to seeing his babies develop.

I've noticed that also pigpen..seems to get a lot of runners..he stands at the same farm as army mule (hill 'n' dale)

Looks like Hill N Dale is on a roll.

Let's keep an eye on those as well.

If they both keep it up, they might consider renaming Hill N Dale Farm to Magic Mule Farm. Lol.

[str]

Sir STR, I see a lot talks and likes about Kingsbarn, what do you think is a fair odds for him? Thanks in advance

Hi Mr. GandT. Hope all is well.

My best guess is he will be somewhere between 6th to 8th choice. This year seems from what I have seen, which isn't that much, to have a lot of "contenders" that should not be 8-1 but also should not be 20-1.

I'm not sure how all that plays out. It seems reasonable to me that after the huge upset last year, plenty of money will be on the real high longshots thus squeezing horses that would be 50-1 or higher down to maybe 35-1. That should allow horses who would be 8-1 through 12-1 to possibly drift up .

So if I had to guess, it would be 15-1 +/- 2 points.

But late press /hype/ steam/wiseguy, whatever you want to call it, will typically have some horse over bet. Hope it's not this guy.

Who are you thinking about playing at this point or are you waiting for the draw like a reasonable person would do? Lol.

I saw what JBEX said about having an opinion well before the draw and I'm the same way. It's been quite a while since I felt this way well before the Derby. And that can be a dangerous way to look at it. You can overlook things that make other horses look better because your mind is kind of closed on the subject. Or make your pick worse and you overlook that.

On the jockey note, I saw J. Ortiz is the regular rider for Major Dude who is hopeful to run if others scratch. Because Todd trains both, he already has Ortiz lined up. And out of respect to Major Dude, you don't steal his rider when you might not have to. So it's probably wait and see if he can get into the draw or not. If so, KB needs a rider. If not, Ortiz makes perfect sense. I did not realize that before but once I saw it, it made everything a lot clearer.

Thanks Mr. GandT. Always a pleasure.

[mrginandtonic]

Sir STR, thanks for your take on this. I have not followed any of the Derby contenders this year. I only read what is on here. Therefore, I have no opinion on any horses. I saw a video from DRF yesterday regarding Kingsbarns and it was interesting to know that Mike Beer thinks that he should be at least 20-1. Also, from them, I found out he did not race as a 2year old. Will the "Apollo Curse" affect your opinion on him? They do think that he is very talented but maybe further down the line on his career. thanks in advance.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Kingsbarns.


Of course it is Pre post position draw and no rider named with Jose Ortiz open. Jose or his agent must have something to piss Todd off. I guess? That's usually what happens.

But I have to think Todd will name a rider before next Wednesday or Thursday. I would assume he would want the named rider to work Kingsbarns 5/8ths and out 3/4's and 7/8ths then. But... all just a guess.

Hey STR: just read that Jose Ortiz is a strong possibility for Kingsbarns in the Derby. He is breezing the horse this week. Pletcher said a conversation with Spendthrift Farm is needed before finalizing.

[JBEX]

Hi Mr. GandT. Hope all is well.

My best guess is he will be somewhere between 6th to 8th choice. This year seems from what I have seen, which isn't that much, to have a lot of "contenders" that should not be 8-1 but also should not be 20-1.

I'm not sure how all that plays out. It seems reasonable to me that after the huge upset last year, plenty of money will be on the real high longshots thus squeezing horses that would be 50-1 or higher down to maybe 35-1. That should allow horses who would be 8-1 through 12-1 to possibly drift up .

So if I had to guess, it would be 15-1 +/- 2 points.

But late press /hype/ steam/wiseguy, whatever you want to call it, will typically have some horse over bet. Hope it's not this guy.

Who are you thinking about playing at this point or are you waiting for the draw like a reasonable person would do? Lol.

I saw what JBEX said about having an opinion well before the draw and I'm the same way. It's been quite a while since I felt this way well before the Derby. And that can be a dangerous way to look at it. You can overlook things that make other horses look better because your mind is kind of closed on the subject. Or make your pick worse and you overlook that.

On the jockey note, I saw J. Ortiz is the regular rider for Major Dude who is hopeful to run if others scratch. Because Todd trains both, he already has Ortiz lined up. And out of respect to Major Dude, you don't steal his rider when you might not have to. So it's probably wait and see if he can get into the draw or not. If so, KB needs a rider. If not, Ortiz makes perfect sense. I did not realize that before but once I saw it, it made everything a lot clearer.

Thanks Mr. GandT. Always a pleasure.

hey str

irad ortiz is the regular jockey for "major dude" and not jose..I've done this before, mistaking the j for jose instead of jr (irad is a jr)..would rather it have been your scenario and back to wondering what's going on with the delay if he ultimately is going to ride him




.

[JBEX]

it's really strange and can't be a good thing that this is going on

[JBEX]

going to take a stab at this trying to be objective..I took this horse as a future position in Jan after he'd broken his maiden impressively in his gulfstream debut ..Expected him with the timing to shoot for the 2nd leg of one of the major track derby preps .. instead he winds up in a weak allowance race at tampa bay and of course wins easy..then gets to the front in the la derby ,rates them into submission and wins big

the fact he didn't go to a 2nd leg race,had two of the easiest races you can have leading up ..prat won't stay aboard and now the capper in jose ortiz won't commit .. putting all those together I'm starting to have doubts about his chances .. not getting off just yet but not liking the direction this is going

[Easy-Rider 66]

going to take a stab at this trying to be objective..I took this horse as a future position in Jan after he'd broken his maiden impressively in his gulfstream debut ..Expected him with the timing to shoot for the 2nd leg of one of the major track derby preps .. instead he winds up in a weak allowance race at tampa bay and of course wins easy..then gets to the front in the la derby ,rates them into submission and wins big

the fact he didn't go to a 2nd leg race,had two of the easiest races you can have leading up ..prat won't stay aboard and now the capper in jose ortiz won't commit .. putting all those together I'm starting to have doubts about his chances .. not getting off just yet but not liking the direction this is going

Yeah get your drift JBEX. But would not worry. STR Raves about Kingbarns Professional manner. You took a shot and If it does not work so be it. At least the horse got this far. my 2 cents. GL.

[JBEX]

Yeah get your drift JBEX. But would not worry. STR Raves about Kingbarns Professional manner. You took a shot and If it does not work so be it. At least the horse got this far. my 2 cents. GL.

nothing you can do at this point if you have a futures bet ..be less enthused to get involved now though..see what plays out over the rest of the week

[str]

Sir STR, thanks for your take on this. I have not followed any of the Derby contenders this year. I only read what is on here. Therefore, I have no opinion on any horses. I saw a video from DRF yesterday regarding Kingsbarns and it was interesting to know that Mike Beer thinks that he should be at least 20-1. Also, from them, I found out he did not race as a 2year old. Will the "Apollo Curse" affect your opinion on him? They do think that he is very talented but maybe further down the line on his career. thanks in advance.

The Apollo Curse does not come into play for me. Why? I think it is kind of outdated. Especially for horses that are forwardly placed. Justify would agree.

Back in the day two year olds ran much more often. And everyone wanted to run them as 2 year olds. In todays game of much more time between races, as well as less overall starts, it has switched somewhat. Way back, many would have run 8 times by now. Some even more.

A lot of these have run 4 or 5 races. He has run 3. And while that still might be a problem, with his natural speed allowing for a forward position , this horse does not need to learn how to eat a ton of dirt and maneuver between or inside of 10 horses when running. If he does, he is in trouble.

With a lack of crazy speed like last years addition, he should be laying anywhere from 2nd to 4th or 5th, depending on post, break, etc. That is not a ton of problems to deal with. And I go back to how impressive I have seen him mentally which really stood out IMO, to have him in a hopefully nice spot early. From there, if he gets swallowed up by horses, it won't be the lack of racing that did it, It will be ability, or a problem that has occurred. And if he is moving forward, that makes the race with less horses around him.
If he was a real closer and was going to lay mid pack or back, yes, the lack of experience would likely show. But with a forward type trip, he has a chance to get away with that lack of experience.

And I do respect those name guys, or girls that talk about all these horses. I really do. But I have heard nobody mention how incredibly well KB handled that gate episode last time out. And handicappers won't necessarily see that and understand how incredible it was. Nor should they. If I hadn't trained and been a customer all those years, I would not have noticed it either. But from a horseman's point of view, it was special. So special I'm not sure I have ever seen a horse with 2 starts prior do that. If I did, I cannot recall. I was stunned.

There is a racetrack reunion at Laurel this Sunday for former Md. workers. Many of us retired or old, yikes, former jockeys, trainers and backside employees will be there. Pretty sure CJ is coming and if so, I will make it a point to ask him about it. If he has not seen the race, I can try and get a replay that we can watch. I would really like his take on the gate stuff, pre break in the Lou. Derby. I'll let you know if that works out.

That impressed me as much or more than the race itself did. All that took place pre race and he walked the dog for the 1st 1/2 mile, responded immediately when asked and finished the last 1/8th in 12 flat while being geared down going 1 3/16's.

I don't know where he will finish but if they ran this exact race 20 times, I have to think he would win more than once. It comes down to ability which maybe we have seen all he has, or maybe he is still improving and he has not yet reached his potential. It's all a guess but there is a reasonable chance he has more room to improve.

He has a chance to be very special. Will he do it? I don't know. But there IS a chance. And in this game, that is all you can ever hope for.

Hope that makes sense.

Thanks Mr. GandT

[JBEX]

I think ultimately they are not running him at less than 100% .. if jose ortiz rides ,albeit being a late decision, I'm convinced things are ok with the horse..if he's ridden by another jock ,will feel less confident about his chances

[mrginandtonic]

The Apollo Curse does not come into play for me. Why? I think it is kind of outdated. Especially for horses that are forwardly placed. Justify would agree.

Back in the day two year olds ran much more often. And everyone wanted to run them as 2 year olds. In todays game of much more time between races, as well as less overall starts, it has switched somewhat. Way back, many would have run 8 times by now. Some even more.

A lot of these have run 4 or 5 races. He has run 3. And while that still might be a problem, with his natural speed allowing for a forward position , this horse does not need to learn how to eat a ton of dirt and maneuver between or inside of 10 horses when running. If he does, he is in trouble.

With a lack of crazy speed like last years addition, he should be laying anywhere from 2nd to 4th or 5th, depending on post, break, etc. That is not a ton of problems to deal with. And I go back to how impressive I have seen him mentally which really stood out IMO, to have him in a hopefully nice spot early. From there, if he gets swallowed up by horses, it won't be the lack of racing that did it, It will be ability, or a problem that has occurred. And if he is moving forward, that makes the race with less horses around him.
If he was a real closer and was going to lay mid pack or back, yes, the lack of experience would likely show. But with a forward type trip, he has a chance to get away with that lack of experience.

And I do respect those name guys, or girls that talk about all these horses. I really do. But I have heard nobody mention how incredibly well KB handled that gate episode last time out. And handicappers won't necessarily see that and understand how incredible it was. Nor should they. If I hadn't trained and been a customer all those years, I would not have noticed it either. But from a horseman's point of view, it was special. So special I'm not sure I have ever seen a horse with 2 starts prior do that. If I did, I cannot recall. I was stunned.

There is a racetrack reunion at Laurel this Sunday for former Md. workers. Many of us retired or old, yikes, former jockeys, trainers and backside employees will be there. Pretty sure CJ is coming and if so, I will make it a point to ask him about it. If he has not seen the race, I can try and get a replay that we can watch. I would really like his take on the gate stuff, pre break in the Lou. Derby. I'll let you know if that works out.

That impressed me as much or more than the race itself did. All that took place pre race and he walked the dog for the 1st 1/2 mile, responded immediately when asked and finished the last 1/8th in 12 flat while being geared down going 1 3/16's.

I don't know where he will finish but if they ran this exact race 20 times, I have to think he would win more than once. It comes down to ability which maybe we have seen all he has, or maybe he is still improving and he has not yet reached his potential. It's all a guess but there is a reasonable chance he has more room to improve.

He has a chance to be very special. Will he do it? I don't know. But there IS a chance. And in this game, that is all you can ever hope for.

Hope that makes sense.

Thanks Mr. GandT

Thank you very much for your input and time.

[str]

Hey STR: just read that Jose Ortiz is a strong possibility for Kingsbarns in the Derby. He is breezing the horse this week. Pletcher said a conversation with Spendthrift Farm is needed before finalizing.

Real good info EZ.

Guess he is working today. We will see.

Thanks for sharing and sorry I couldn't respond yesterday.

[str]

hey str

irad ortiz is the regular jockey for "major dude" and not jose..I've done this before, mistaking the j for jose instead of jr (irad is a jr)..would rather it have been your scenario and back to wondering what's going on with the delay if he ultimately is going to ride him




.

Thanks JBEX. Not the 1st time I have done that either.

"would rather it have been your scenario and back to wondering what's going on with the delay if he ultimately is going to ride him"

"it's really strange and can't be a good thing that this is going on"

Things can happen between rider and trainer/owner sometimes. Not that big a deal if all is ironed out and if indeed that was what this was all about. Just guessing but It just sends a message if that's what it was.

It's kind of like pulling a starter on a team for a game /half/ whatever. Often times it gives the rider more incentive than ever to right the ship. Not that you need that for the Derby but it happens more than one might think.

[str]

going to take a stab at this trying to be objective..I took this horse as a future position in Jan after he'd broken his maiden impressively in his gulfstream debut ..Expected him with the timing to shoot for the 2nd leg of one of the major track derby preps .. instead he winds up in a weak allowance race at tampa bay and of course wins easy..then gets to the front in the la derby ,rates them into submission and wins big

the fact he didn't go to a 2nd leg race,had two of the easiest races you can have leading up ..prat won't stay aboard and now the capper in jose ortiz won't commit .. putting all those together I'm starting to have doubts about his chances .. not getting off just yet but not liking the direction this is going

These can be hard to try and figure out but I doubt Ortiz would not commit to Todd on him. This feels like Todd or the owner got upset by him not riding his/or their horse in a previous spot. It is called "getting spun". Basically, when a trainer has a call on a jock for a race, and the opportunity to ride a better one comes along just before the draw and the agent goes to the trainer and asks off his mount to ride for someone else. Especially if the agent tells the trainer the rider wants to ride another one. That gets a trainer upset sometimes and the retaliation for that is what is seemingly going on here.

Kind of like a coach getting mad at a player for a decision that player made on the field. The response is " sit down and think about it".


Like I said, I cannot say that is at all what this is, but it looks and feels like what goes on now and then between trainer/agent and rider.

Just a guess, but it sure feels like it, if we are left to guess.

He has been working with Major Dude each workout so far and might be working today, like right now. If he does, he has easily handled Dude both times. Lets see what happens today and look at the gallop out for more clues.

[JBEX]

sounds like a reasonable scenario and understand ultimately it's all speculation ..with all the things that have gone on with this horse ,delaying the decision to name jose kind of felt like the final straw for me..have come to feel it's not all that big a deal and as you said might just be a little gamesmanship (if that's the right word) between the connections


thanks str

[str]

sounds like a reasonable scenario and understand ultimately it's all speculation ..with all the things that have gone on with this horse ,delaying the decision to name jose kind of felt like the final straw for me..have come to feel it's not all that big a deal and as you said might just be a little gamesmanship (if that's the right word) between the connections


thanks str

Yeah, it's not all that it might seem.

It's the game inside the game that has to happen from time to time.

Do not let it affect your thoughts.

Just saw J Ortiz worked KB about an hour ago. Most likely, it's now old news.

But we will see for sure soon enough.

"Gamesmanship". I like that.

I used to call it, "pulling the agent or rider up".

Kind of like, let's hit the reset button and get back on track here.

[harthebar]

another believer KB


https://youtu.be/_az8_Dp7LV4






.

10 4. .like it

[JBEX]

10 4. .like it

it is very informative...
he makes it seem like he'll be the next flightline

[str]

it is very informative...
he makes it seem like he'll be the next flightline

Like carrying 126 lbs. isn't tough enough.

Horse is picking up more weight to carry everyday.