[JBEX]

Q. so it's more excusable in your opinion for lightly raced 3yo's form to fluctuate until it settles at the right level and distance.


A. Maybe not so much with a cheaper horse who is running at the same level but for these high end horses who are asked to move around and constantly change distances, tracks, surfaces, levels of competition, riders maybe, etc. it can be a lot for plenty of them.


They are trying to get to the Derby and that is such a tough road to go down. Especially when it is rushed. Takes a special horse to be able to stand up to that IMO.


Q. not automatic plays, , but when other things come together on the particular horse you like?


A. Sure. After the fact, we will see plenty of horses that run improved races and look back and say, now I see it. Something they disliked in their last race or really liked in this one where they ran better.

I don't think you can go looking for that. It's just something that when you read the pp's or watch a replay, it might show up. It very well could only be a hunch but when the horse improves off a not so hot effort , or, regresses off a great trip, it can become apparent so as to better gauge the horse next out.

As we know, it is always a guessing game to some extent. But if you can try and get a feel prior to the race one way or another, you will be wrong on some for sure, but you will also be right on some. And for those, from that point forward, you have a solid inside track on that particular horse, at least for the next race or two. After that, so many things can happen, you often have to recalculate.

I guess that what makes the game so tough and yet compelling at the same time. It is always in motion and moving around. It never becomes automatic.
Nobody is right all the time. But if you can be right just sometimes on a horse that pays a nice price, or even a horse that was bet way down that you played against, it is that, that will pay for many mistakes we all will make when handicapping.

Such a tough game that when you were wrong in seven out of the ten races, you feel good about it because you had three winners.



Hope that makes sense.

think the best way to look at it is another thing you should consider with young horses who have exhibited some talent early in their career..the other parts of the handicapping process can't be dismissed ..we're not talking about obvious things in the comment lines as anyone can see those but something more subtle that may offer some value..believe that's along the lines of what you are saying


thanks str

[JBEX]

federal judge (AM debut winner @ OP last sunday) ran the co-highest beyer for a 3yo @ 6f this year




.

[str]

think the best way to look at it is another thing you should consider with young horses who have exhibited some talent early in their career..the other parts of the handicapping process can't be dismissed ..we're not talking about obvious things in the comment lines as anyone can see those but something more subtle that may offer some value..believe that's along the lines of what you are saying




thanks str

Yes. That is exactly what I am saying.

[str]

federal judge (AM debut winner @ OP last sunday) ran the co-highest beyer for a 3yo @ 6f this year




.

Wow. That's really something.

Thanks for sharing.

[JBEX]

would seem like a good spot..

4/29

oaklawn

bachelor stakes
$150k
3yo
6F


.

have to think now they'll be considering this spot if he's OK..probably meant for some of the horses who run big in their high purse msw races..will keep an eye out

[JBEX]

Wow. That's really something.

Thanks for sharing.

no problem str

[Madison]

Sad to hear this Madison. Maybe, take a break for a long time. Sometimes, it helps clear the mind. Also, you could just bet a lot lower. But, if you want out, I get it.

Thanks for the thought. I haven't lost very much money, but quite a bit of time. I'll still pester you guys once in a while.

[Madison]

no problem madison

most,including myself, cannot win at this especially when you factor the take..I'd say < 2% of players might ..you really have to be extremely talented,bankrolled and put the time in to have a shot..just have a little fun with it while staying within your means is the best way to look at it imo

Thanks JBEX!! Yeah I spent 15 years in the 70's and 80's being one of the 2% betting greyhounds. The death of the sport was the take. When I started we would get million dollar handles on the weekends on a 15% take with very few exotics. When I came back to the real world, the handles were 25% of the heydays, the take was 25% versus 15, and the exotics dominated.

The funny (actually sad) part was that the 10 sharp guys all knew each other and in the beginning we all looked around at 5-10 thousand suckers. In the end the same 10 guys were still there but now we were looking around at 500-1000 patrons. Anyway it was a great run. I guess my inate being is so trained to win or you don't eat it's a very difficult thing to deal with.

[JBEX]

I know nothing about dog racing but those numbers are telling..interesting how both the numbers (take,handle) end up around 25
and they are almost impossible to overcome

[Madison]

I know nothing about dog racing but those numbers are telling..interesting how both the numbers (take,handle) end up around 25
and they are almost impossible to overcome

Well on weekends we were playing into a MIL handle at 15%, so basically 850K available to be returned to winners. Fast forward 10 years and the MIL handle became 400K, and the takeout from 15 to 25%. So basically the same 10 guys were now playing for 300K versus the prior 850K. Hence I was forced to the real world I still speak with a few of those less insightful group who didn't have the insight to move on. It was painful, because it was great life, but the world changes and we must change/adapt or go the way of the dinosaurs.

All my best,

[Madison]

This may or may not give you a laugh, but when I moved I had 18-24 boxes 12x12x18 full of documentation (books/tickets). I actually last fall just threw a shoebox full of IRS tickets that the only reason I held for 20 years was because I couldn't let the past (30 years) go. Sick puppy, but time to grow up and move on. My avatar when I first joined here in 2008 was a greyhound.

Anyway, back to the real world. BOL to all.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This may or may not give you a laugh, but when I moved I had 18-24 boxes 12x12x18 full of documentation (books/tickets). I actually last fall just threw a shoebox full of IRS tickets that the only reason I held for 20 years was because I couldn't let the past (30 years) go. Sick puppy, but time to grow up and move on. My avatar when I first joined here in 2008 was a greyhound.

Anyway, back to the real world. BOL to all.

Ya. But I'll bet you have some stories.

[str]

Ya. But I'll bet you have some stories.

I'm sure he does Chucky.

One thing about the track is whether it's the front side or the backside, you spend enough time there, you will have more stories than you could ever tell.

And no matter how many you hear, most people want to hear another one.

[Madison]

I'm sure he does Chucky.

One thing about the track is whether it's the front side or the backside, you spend enough time there, you will have more stories than you could ever tell.

And no matter how many you hear, most people want to hear another one.

I don't possess the ability to type fast enough to share to many, but let's just say times weren't always roses but it was an experience I'll never forget or regret. One of the toughest things I've done in my life was doing a 180 and becoming part of the conventional world.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I don't possess the ability to type fast enough to share to many, but let's just say times weren't always roses but it was an experience I'll never forget or regret. One of the toughest things I've done in my life was doing a 180 and becoming part of the conventional world.

Very honest comment. I hear you.

Gets boring very quickly. Doesn't it?

I had one weekend where I made a significant haul from the casino after hitting multiple parlays tied to one key NFL play. The feeling of walking out of that casino, pockets stuff with a bunch of $100 bills? Pretty nice.

[Madison]

Very honest comment. I hear you.

Gets boring very quickly. Doesn't it?

I had one weekend where I made a significant haul from the casino after hitting multiple parlays tied to one key NFL play. The feeling of walking out of that casino, pockets stuff with a bunch of $100 bills? Pretty nice.

Yeah, always found it a weird feeling that you get this great return but the fact you can't flaunt/enjoy it publicly was a bit of a downer. In my case it was FLA in the 80's so I lived on the fringe of the Al Pacino Scarface. I'm not proud to admit I've seen an Ouzi or 2. Off the wall times. When I was fortunate enough to cash a big ticket it wasn't unusual for me to cash and flee the premises. LOL.

[Madison]

Gentlemen, my apologies. Just realizing we are kind of hijacking your thread. I've spent 30/40 years trying to move on from my past and look forward not in the rear view mirror.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Yeah, always found it a weird feeling that you get this great return but the fact you can't flaunt/enjoy it publicly was a bit of a downer. In my case it was FLA in the 80's so I lived on the fringe of the Al Pacino Scarface. I'm not proud to admit I've seen an Ouzi or 2. Off the wall times. When I was fortunate enough to cash a big ticket it wasn't unusual for me to cash and flee the premises. LOL.

"I have Nick the Pig as a friend. What kind of life is that?"

[str]

Gentlemen, my apologies. Just realizing we are kind of hijacking your thread. I've spent 30/40 years trying to move on from my past and look forward not in the rear view mirror.

No apology needed.

Please feel free to post any story you have about back in the day. Especially if anyone reading this thread can pick up something from it.

The whole point of this thread started in 2011 is to help people that like the game to better understand what they see, hear, and experience at the track.

It also allowed me to remember some of the greatest moments, people, horses and lessons from my life.

Anytime sir.

All the best Madison.

[str]

It doesn't look like a rider has been named yet for Kingsbarns in the Ky. derby.

Jose Ortiz is available.

Kind of a no brainer .

Seems like something might be going on behind the scenes.

Maybe another horse is only 50/50 to run and it's wait and see.

Interesting to see what happens.

[JBEX]

It doesn't look like a rider has been named yet for Kingsbarns in the Ky. derby.

Jose Ortiz is available.

Kind of a no brainer .

Seems like something might be going on behind the scenes.

Maybe another horse is only 50/50 to run and it's wait and see.

Interesting to see what happens.

would have to think it will be str with all the other big time jockeys committed to others..a possible outsider might be brian hernandez who is one of the best ky based jocks

[JBEX]

https://www.horseraceinsider.com/kenticky-derby-update/

[JBEX]

would have to think it will be str with all the other big time jockeys committed to others..a possible outsider might be brian hernandez who is one of the best ky based jocks

already taken...sun thunder

[str]

https://www.horseraceinsider.com/kenticky-derby-update/

Very helpful.

Thanks and yeah, I see Hernandez is named.

[JBEX]

Very helpful.

Thanks and yeah, I see Hernandez is named.

no problem str




wanted your opinion on a horse i like at a price in the last race at oaklawn

R9 #3 smarty's angel (30-1)

get it out of the way..coming off a very long layoff and not something to be taken lightly..although she is an arky bred so not the kind of horse they're probably going to run out of town "anymore"..on a fast track at this level with a reasonable post could be tough .. seems to be working right along at a nice clip ..doubt odds will be that high



.

[str]

no problem str




wanted your opinion on a horse i like at a price in the last race at oaklawn

R9 #3 smarty's angel (30-1)

get it out of the way..coming off a very long layoff and not something to be taken lightly..although she is an arky bred so not the kind of horse they're probably going to run out of town "anymore"..on a fast track at this level with a reasonable post could be tough .. seems to be working right along at a nice clip ..doubt odds will be that high



.

She fits very well in this race.

When I see a horse with a year plus off, I always like to look at her first lifetime start if we can. It shows she ran a decent race. Not great, but not bad. I do that because it helps give a clue to how fit she might be mentally and physically off a very long layoff. She is not a play or throw off her first race IMO, but if I had to choose, I would lean play.
So that always helps. Next, I look at the works. two 3/8ths, two 1/2's, one 5/8ths, and a nice one, and a 1/2 out of the gate to get her gate card which is mandatory for a horse that has not run in a year.
In a perfect world I would have liked to see another 5/8's in there but , and this is just a guess, the trainer saw this race in the book and it was perfect. And not sure when this meet ends but I guess there is a chance this might be the last Ark. bred n/w 2, 25k they run at 6F ???

I have no clue but if so, I get it. Real hard to turn away an ark. bred beaten for her. If not, that might be good also because that meant he did have time to work another 5/8ths and choose not to. Probably means he feels she is at least close to fit enough if not completely.

So that is how I see it. I just glanced at the others and they look like a fairly weak bunch. Probably typical for Ark. bred mares sprinting in a nw/2. One big drop down but she has questions for sure.

So my opinion would need a couple of pieces filled in for me like when the meet ends, is there another one of these in 2 weeks or whatever.
But all in all, heck yes. Why not. She is probably better than most all things being equal. Just not positive they are equal. It would help to see her on the track as well. Big old hay belly, she will need one. Fit , fresh looking and a nice coat? That's a real good thing.
30-1 would be crazy.
Hope that helps.

GL if you play JEBX.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

You guys sniffing out any Derby picks?

Would love to hit a nice longshot.

[JBEX]

You guys sniffing out any Derby picks?

Would love to hit a nice longshot.

I think it's fairly safe to say chucky that both of us will be backing kingsbarns..been discussing him in this thread and also some in the future pool 3 thread since january. will be the first year I can remember that I will not be doing any further capping on derby day

[JBEX]

She fits very well in this race.

When I see a horse with a year plus off, I always like to look at her first lifetime start if we can. It shows she ran a decent race. Not great, but not bad. I do that because it helps give a clue to how fit she might be mentally and physically off a very long layoff. She is not a play or throw off her first race IMO, but if I had to choose, I would lean play.
So that always helps. Next, I look at the works. two 3/8ths, two 1/2's, one 5/8ths, and a nice one, and a 1/2 out of the gate to get her gate card which is mandatory for a horse that has not run in a year.
In a perfect world I would have liked to see another 5/8's in there but , and this is just a guess, the trainer saw this race in the book and it was perfect. And not sure when this meet ends but I guess there is a chance this might be the last Ark. bred n/w 2, 25k they run at 6F ???

I have no clue but if so, I get it. Real hard to turn away an ark. bred beaten for her. If not, that might be good also because that meant he did have time to work another 5/8ths and choose not to. Probably means he feels she is at least close to fit enough if not completely.

So that is how I see it. I just glanced at the others and they look like a fairly weak bunch. Probably typical for Ark. bred mares sprinting in a nw/2. One big drop down but she has questions for sure.

So my opinion would need a couple of pieces filled in for me like when the meet ends, is there another one of these in 2 weeks or whatever.
But all in all, heck yes. Why not. She is probably better than most all things being equal. Just not positive they are equal. It would help to see her on the track as well. Big old hay belly, she will need one. Fit , fresh looking and a nice coat? That's a real good thing.
30-1 would be crazy.
Hope that helps.

GL if you play JEBX.

thanks str

all that for a scratch..darn

looked at the condition book and looks like there are 2 realistic spots in sprints..on 4/28 clm 12.5-10k n3l and 5/6 clm 20-16k n2l ..meet ends on 5/6..neither said arky bred but I looked at today's race and it didn't say that either (less I'm missing something)..maybe at least one of those two is an arky bred..have to keep an eye out to see if she gets entered into either of those

[str]

thanks str

all that for a scratch..darn

looked at the condition book and looks like there are 2 realistic spots in sprints..on 4/28 clm 12.5-10k n3l and 5/6 clm 20-16k n2l ..meet ends on 5/6..neither said arky bred but I looked at today's race and it didn't say that either (less I'm missing something)..maybe at least one of those two is an arky bred..have to keep an eye out to see if she gets entered into either of those

I guess I saw the Ark. Bred stuff in the conditions and thought it was Ark. bred only. Sorry about that.

So if he shoots for 5/6, the 20k n/w2 he can breeze her 5/8's today or soon and even has time to come back with a 3/8ths if he wants to.

Here I go training again. Lol.

[JBEX]

I guess I saw the Ark. Bred stuff in the conditions and thought it was Ark. bred only. Sorry about that.

So if he shoots for 5/6, the 20k n/w2 he can breeze her 5/8's today or soon and even has time to come back with a 3/8ths if he wants to.

Here I go training again. Lol.

yesterday's race was for arkansas breds but it wasn't clear to me in the index that it was ..they did make notations for statebred on some of the other races and obviously that's not a small detail to leave out

[JBEX]

yesterday's race was for arkansas breds but it wasn't clear to me in the index that it was ..they did make notations for statebred on some of the other races and obviously that's not a small detail to leave out

I apologize (read it wrong) it is listed as a statebred race in the index ..the 2 races I mentioned above are not statebred races

[str]

I apologize (read it wrong) it is listed as a statebred race in the index ..the 2 races I mentioned above are not statebred races

No problem JBEX.

Something prompted him to scratch. Might have been the horse, 2nd thoughts, something. But I doubt it was the field. Have to think he would be a bit frustrated by having to do so as those kind of spots don't come up that often.

Anyway, interesting to see where he runs when he does.

Thanks JBEX !

[JBEX]

No problem JBEX.

Something prompted him to scratch. Might have been the horse, 2nd thoughts, something. But I doubt it was the field. Have to think he would be a bit frustrated by having to do so as those kind of spots don't come up that often.

Anyway, interesting to see where he runs when he does.

Thanks JBEX !

no problem str

I agree with missing the spot as probably only so many of those races are carded..now if he runs would have to take on the killer open clm n2 or n3 lifetime horses lol..with the big upgrade in purses for msw and alw races (which includes statebreds) arkansas breds imo are much better stock then they were 10-15 years ago
..it's not as big a jump going to opens as it used to be..wouldn't be surprised if she turns up in one of those 2 races

[JBEX]

same thing that happened to ny breds I'd say 25-30 years ago..big incentives to win open races so they started breeding to the better stallions ..before that ny breds were a big drop off