[str]

STR; I have heard Maggie Wolfendale say that she regards Blinks on a FTS as a negative. How do you feel about that situation? Thx in advance.

If you see a "blinkers on" firster, that horse probably cannot run as well or fast as the connections hoped it would. Why? Because the trainer is concerned that they have not seen nearly enough of what they expect out of the horse. And often times, that is because the horse just can't run to their bloodlines. That goes for most trainers in general. Blinkers "on" is trying to make the horse wake up. If you are having to try and wake up a firster, chances are you as a trainer are worried about the level of ability.

An exception would be if you see a horse with a see through bubble on one eye and probably nothing on the other eye. That is a protective lens to help a horse that has injured it's eye either temporarily or permanently.
That is not the same thing and is pretty rare but we do see it from time to time.
There are some exceptions to every rule but all in all, Maggie is right.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR good to know. thx again.

[JBEX]

hey str


sar R1#5 sicialian grandma (5-1)


army mule 2nd time starter and like in this spot..just making you aware another one of them is running





.

[str]

hey str


sar R1#5 sicialian grandma (5-1)


army mule 2nd time starter and like in this spot..just making you aware another one of them is running





.

Sorry I missed this one JBEX. I saw the chart and this one ran as expected. I did see that it actually laid third for a bit before drawing off late. An easy win for the horse. I also saw that it was claimed. The cost of the horse was probably worth it but finding a race to run that isn’t a stake might be very difficult so it seems these days. That should be interesting.
Who knows, maybe they want to run the horse in a stake but that race will probably come loaded.
Anyway, nice pick and thanks again for the heads up.

[JBEX]

Sorry I missed this one JBEX. I saw the chart and this one ran as expected. I did see that it actually laid third for a bit before drawing off late. An easy win for the horse. I also saw that it was claimed. The cost of the horse was probably worth it but finding a race to run that isn’t a stake might be very difficult so it seems these days. That should be interesting.
Who knows, maybe they want to run the horse in a stake but that race will probably come loaded.
Anyway, nice pick and thanks again for the heads up.

np and thanks str

yeah I would imagine next spots are difficult to find for this scenario ..maybe as it heads into the fall at bel they'll be some claiming or starter allowance races..don't think they write many allowance races and even if they did those fields would be like stakes races..Sure he gave that some thought when making the claim..Tom Morley (wife of Maggie wolfendale)
is the new trainer so have to think there's a better than avg chance they'll do well with it

[JBEX]

hey str

dmr R6 #6 broadway girls (6-1) 666

fts by army mule

nice works and doug o'neil solid with debuters especially factoring roi..good multiple $ for nothing from the dam..2 baffert firsters breaking right outside of him and a few others look tough (1,10 to me) and Doug has another debuter #2 (10-1)


overall nice betting race

[JBEX]

hey str

dmr R6 #6 broadway girls (6-1) 666

fts by army mule

nice works and doug o'neil solid with debuters especially factoring roi..good multiple $ for nothing from the dam..2 baffert firsters breaking right outside of him and a few others look tough (1,10 to me) and Doug has another debuter #2 (10-1)


overall nice betting race

scratched


@ 6:54 said scratched 5 hours ago .. reason unavailable

then 3 hours ago changed to vet scratch from reason unavailable

think that means it was a vet scratch originally but they didn't know it yet ?

[str]

hey str

dmr R6 #6 broadway girls (6-1) 666

fts by army mule

nice works and doug o'neil solid with debuters especially factoring roi..good multiple $ for nothing from the dam..2 baffert firsters breaking right outside of him and a few others look tough (1,10 to me) and Doug has another debuter #2 (10-1)


overall nice betting race

They all seem to show up or have a darn good reason why they did not. No way to know about the Baffert horses other than they are very expensive and work fast. Because it is a loaded race, really hard to take a stand without knowing more about the others and I hate not knowing as much as others do which is a given in this one but Army Mule has already shown that his horses come to play.
Good luck if you play JBEX.
Thanks for the heads up.

[BetMiddler]

Another 2yo winner from Army Mule, Clear the Deck at Saratoga R5 today. Peeps catching on was only 5/2.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

nICE HIT, jbex.

[JBEX]

Another 2yo winner from Army Mule, Clear the Deck at Saratoga R5 today. Peeps catching on was only 5/2.

this one did figure though..was 3-1 ml and had 3 solid attempts prior..also this was a significant class drop as this race was restricted to horses who were purchased at auction for less than $50k..the others were all open msw which are much more difficult spots


like str I've liked what I've seen with his offspring so far and I believe his foal crop was approaching 150..haven't seen any of the real expensive ones yet and I believe by calculating manually his top 20 avg auction price was in the low $200's..somewhere in here I posted this and will try to find or confirm that number

[JBEX]

nICE HIT, jbex.

thanks chucky but I didn't have this one..may have pointed him out along the way as he was making his 4th career start

[JBEX]

this one did figure though..was 3-1 ml and had 3 solid attempts prior..also this was a significant class drop as this race was restricted to horses who were purchased at auction for less than $50k..the others were all open msw which are much more difficult spots


like str I've liked what I've seen with his offspring so far and I believe his foal crop was approaching 150..haven't seen any of the real expensive ones yet and I believe by calculating manually his top 20 avg auction price was in the low $200's..somewhere in here I posted this and will try to find or confirm that number

checked over the entries in 2yo races today and tomorrow at major tracks for army mule's and just so happens the most expensive AM sold at auction ($450k) goes at monmouth tomorrow in R4

#8 navy goat (5-2) ..gotta love the name


I often mention expensive overall and relative ..both apply here..also the 2nd dam is by lord of war who was a tremendous turf sire (it's a 5f turf sprint)


as a betting prospect imo he's a stickout in a weak field of msw's and will offer no value (odds-on)..the outside posts are not good in turf sprints although it's a relatively small sample size..all relative categories to this race (including roi) trainer imo slightly above avg

[JBEX]

if I looked I could probably find it but I mentioned the sire (AM) before he even made his first start..he cost $800k and was by a cheap $4k sire ..he retired 3/3 winning his these races by I believe in the mid 20 lengths combined ..have a hunch this is going to be a good one

[JBEX]

if I looked I could probably find it but I mentioned the sire (AM) before he even made his first start..he cost $800k and was by a cheap $4k sire ..he retired 3/3 winning his these races by I believe in the mid 20 lengths combined ..have a hunch this is going to be a good one

22+ lengths ** bel.. msw /gulfstream.. alw/ aqu.. carter hcp

[str]

checked over the entries in 2yo races today and tomorrow at major tracks for army mule's and just so happens the most expensive AM sold at auction ($450k) goes at monmouth tomorrow in R4

#8 navy goat (5-2) ..gotta love the name


I often mention expensive overall and relative ..both apply here..also the 2nd dam is by lord of war who was a tremendous turf sire (it's a 5f turf sprint)


as a betting prospect imo he's a stickout in a weak field of msw's and will offer no value (odds-on)..the outside posts are not good in turf sprints although it's a relatively small sample size..all relative categories to this race (including roi) trainer imo slightly above avg

This one finished 3rd at 3-5. Broke slow and a steady pace to go from last to 3rd going 5/8ths.

We just talked about blinkers ON a firster. Not a good scenario.

This horse had blinkers ON as a firster.

[JBEX]

This one finished 3rd at 3-5. Broke slow and a steady pace to go from last to 3rd going 5/8ths.

We just talked about blinkers ON a firster. Not a good scenario.

This horse had blinkers ON as a firster.

disappointing the most expensive foal of his crop might turn out to be an avg horse at best..think it's too early to come to that conclusion?

[str]

disappointing the most expensive foal of his crop might turn out to be an avg horse at best..think it's too early to come to that conclusion?

It is certainly worrisome. Blinkers on suggests disappointment in the morning. Not always, but often.

So then the horse runs just O K ?

It's worrisome IMO.

[JBEX]

hey str


wanted your opinion on the winner of the last race at dmr on friday (#5 slam diego) ..was considering (#8 was my choice) off her 2nd and 3rd starts at churcill but the last effort wasnt enough for for me to pull the trigger ..when i looked back i was thinking that maybe she needed that race as she hadn't worked for 29 days after her last cd start..40 days between her previous 2 starts and 29 days from her last to this start ..plus gets a workout in between the quicker return..realize it could be any number of things that made for the big effort ,including being more acclimated to her new surroundings, but do you think that being more fit is a possible reason ?

[str]

hey str


wanted your opinion on the winner of the last race at dmr on friday (#5 slam diego) ..was considering (#8 was my choice) off her 2nd and 3rd starts at churcill but the last effort wasnt enough for for me to pull the trigger ..when i looked back i was thinking that maybe she needed that race as she hadn't worked for 29 days after her last cd start..40 days between her previous 2 starts and 29 days from her last to this start ..plus gets a workout in between the quicker return..realize it could be any number of things that made for the big effort ,including being more acclimated to her new surroundings, but do you think that being more fit is a possible reason ?

From a handicapping standpoint, I would not have played this horse either. You are right about the previous form, it's fine. But that last race was not good and the training schedule working up to that was very suspicious as was the one 1/2 mile work in a month and spaced in the middle of that month off.

On paper, she looks to have problems. Why? Because her works look shaky at best with long gaps in between and whoever trains her, quickly or immediately runs her back in very claimable spots. Meaning, she seems to take away much hope of keeping her for a while and hoping she develops and improves. Anytime you claim a horse, you typically do so with optimism. Especially a maiden with a start or two, three.
Sometimes you claim one knowing full well they can only win 3 races , Maiden, nw/2 and nw/3 and thats probably it. But those are easy to spot and cheap horses. Maidens for 20k should bring at least some excitement, optimism and a look to improve. This one gets jammed in no matter who has her. That speaks volumes IMO.
More evidence of that was in yesterdays race, 3 horses were claimed and she was not one of them. So the trainers looking are seeing something as well, again, so it seems. Didn't get claimed last time either which is the racer she probably would have. Off a bad 5th last out, nobody wanted her yesterday. So, how did she win like that? I asked myself the same question.

I looked at the charts for yesterdays card. First thing I saw was her chart and the comment said " Start- Poor for all. Lol. I've been reading charts a long time and don't recall seeing that one before. Incredible !
But the next thing I looked for when I saw she went wire to wire and won by 8 lengths was how the track played for the rest of the card. That's the key to this thing IMO. No horse made up more than 2 lengths all day on the dirt races. Third was as far back as any winner was. The horses that laid 2,3,4th in this race finished 5th, 3rd, and 7th.

So my final analysis of this race was that the winner won because the track was very biased in her favor and no horse near the lead had anything to offer from the 1/4 pole home.

Two things I would look for moving forward. First one is, Where do they run this horse back? NW/2 for 20k off an 8 length win? I guess. If I'm right they jam her back in. We will see.
The other thing is the horse that finished 2nd Squillions , rallied from last and was claimed. Seems like this horse ran directly into a bias and should run very well next out. We will see about that one as well.

Q. realize it could be any number of things that made for the big effort ,including being more acclimated to her new surroundings, but do you think that being more fit is a possible reason ?

A. I'm not sure about fitness but it was a couple of more weeks difference so it seems to have been. But if that, something else as well? Maybe she needed a race over that surface? Or, who knows, maybe she was a step slow leaving the gate the time before because she acted up prior to the start and smashed her mouth on the gate doors? That sort of thing goes undetected by the public a lot and depending on the severity of it, it can REALLY affect the effort. But that is pure speculation. Anything could have happened. She could have been stepped on leaving that gate and it hurt her foot? Any number of things. And as a handicapper you cannot guess this stuff. You need to use all your tools, as you do, and leave that intangible stuff behind, knowing that sometimes, no matter how well you did your job, a piece of information was not available that might have changed your play. If you were a serious student of Calif. racing, maybe you could have seen something at the start or in the warm up last time and this time but for a player that does more than one track, it just has to be expected that some things are just not able to be seen or understood all the time.
That's what makes the game as tough as it is. Sometimes things cannot be figured out.

Hope all that helps. I can see why you asked about this horse. I'm betting it was the track favoring speed as much as anything JBEX.

[JBEX]

I agree that there's no way to know with any degree of certainty why she ran bad last out and fitness is pure speculation at best..as you said the sporadic works might works might be a sign but could be any number of things like some of the one's you mentioned


appreciate you taking the time to look at the charts of not only this but the othere races..I think the bias, like you said,is the most logical reason to explain the performance yesterday and also the point you made about her not being taken would lend some credence to her winning that impressively

believe they have a bonus program for horses shipping in from out of state so they had to be some confidence in her and might explain the willingness to run for the same tag again..the purses for class levels in claiming races are pretty nice out there but don't know the specifics of the bonuses




looking at pp's as you said,will never tell the full story and speculating about bad performances will always be part of the process


thanks for the in depth response str

[trytrytry]

a rare place jumper up next Saratoga
Annapolis

flighline show jumper later today

[trytrytry]

a rare place jumper up next Saratoga
Annapolis

flighline show jumper later today

first jumper free money today safe home...flightline late tonight at delmar

[str]

first jumper free money today safe home...flightline late tonight at delmar

IMO Flightline is a really bad bet . Not because he can't win. Of course he can. He is a sensational horse. But.. there are unanswered questions and you will be betting into the teeth of those questions that nobody, and I mean nobody, knows for sure. And I know, we never know for sure but... when a horse has been tested at a distance, a situation, at a certain crucial time, and delivered, it's information that can be seen by all.

This horse tries two turns for the first time. I cannot explain how impossible it is to say anyone could actually know what will happen. The trainer has done his job I am sure. He has backed this horse up, jogging the wrong way for a month and turned him around at the 1/4 pole and made every day seem like a 1 1/4 race. He has had him relax, slowly pick it up, and finish through the lane galloping 1 1/4 everyday for a month. I get that. But until he shows he can run by the loud noise of the grandstand the first time and keep his cool, relax down the backside, and pick it up at the 5/16's pole. ( Just before the turn for home), we cannot know how he will react.

To bet on this horse to run no worse than 3rd at 1/20 odds for show is insane. Reason being if anything goes wrong, the rider will pull the horse up and certainly stop persevering.. No person except the one holding a ticket cares a bit about running 3rd. So any bettor is basically put on an island and hopes several things, which should all be fine, are indeed fine. If any goes wrong, the chance of losing is great. That is NOT a bet I want to be holding at 1-20 odds.

Hope that makes sense. But win or lose, it's true.

[str]

All that said, I hope this horse wins by 10.

The game can always use another hero.

He looks the part.

I'll sure be rooting for him.

Thanks for the post Try. All the best.

[trytrytry]

ok free money day is over.
flightline by 20? i mean omg what an animal

[trytrytry]

IMO Flightline is a really bad bet . Not because he can't win. Of course he can. He is a sensational horse. But.. there are unanswered questions and you will be betting into the teeth of those questions that nobody, and I mean nobody, knows for sure. And I know, we never know for sure but... when a horse has been tested at a distance, a situation, at a certain crucial time, and delivered, it's information that can be seen by all.

This horse tries two turns for the first time. I cannot explain how impossible it is to say anyone could actually know what will happen. The trainer has done his job I am sure. He has backed this horse up, jogging the wrong way for a month and turned him around at the 1/4 pole and made every day seem like a 1 1/4 race. He has had him relax, slowly pick it up, and finish through the lane galloping 1 1/4 everyday for a month. I get that. But until he shows he can run by the loud noise of the grandstand the first time and keep his cool, relax down the backside, and pick it up at the 5/16's pole. ( Just before the turn for home), we cannot know how he will react.

To bet on this horse to run no worse than 3rd at 1/20 odds for show is insane. Reason being if anything goes wrong, the rider will pull the horse up and certainly stop persevering.. No person except the one holding a ticket cares a bit about running 3rd. So any bettor is basically put on an island and hopes several things, which should all be fine, are indeed fine. If any goes wrong, the chance of losing is great. That is NOT a bet I want to be holding at 1-20 odds.

Hope that makes sense. But win or lose, it's true.

could not disagree more that was a 98% situation in my books that pays 5% that's actually a huge mathematical overlay hard to find in negative expectaiton wagering as you know and KElly wager calculation. u dont go all in of course but bet a fraction that makes sense.

[str]

Flightline.

What an incredible performance.

So great to see. Wow !

[str]

could not disagree more that was a 98% situation in my books that pays 5% that's actually a huge mathematical overlay hard to find in negative expectaiton wagering as you know and KElly wager calculation. u dont go all in of course but bet a fraction that makes sense.

The question is, what criteria is used and understood to get to that 98% situation? If it is using other 1-5 shots without separating the different factors that all of the various 1-5 shots will need to overcome, that would be a contaminated pool of results wouldn't it? Same could be said for Flightlines previous race in that it was a one turn mile. A totally different situation.

So when it comes to oddities like never been two turns, is that considered?

I get the Kelly wager Calc. And arguing with math is a losing bet. I just have to see how the 98% was calculated in order to agree with it.

And having witnessed so many incredible things that can go wrong in a race first time around two turns and a 1/4 mile or so further than the horse has ever tried, it would be hard for me to buy into having to win 20 in a row to double my investment.

Really glad you cashed on both. Keep up the good work.

I guess when it comes to horses, I'm scared for life with all the crazy stuff I saw. And because I always remembered the close losses more vividly than I did the close wins, the mental aspect for me is probably shot. Lol.
All the best TryX3.

[Easy-Rider 66]

The question is, what criteria is used and understood to get to that 98% situation? If it is using other 1-5 shots without separating the different factors that all of the various 1-5 shots will need to overcome, that would be a contaminated pool of results wouldn't it? Same could be said for Flightlines previous race in that it was a one turn mile. A totally different situation.

So when it comes to oddities like never been two turns, is that considered?

I get the Kelly wager Calc. And arguing with math is a losing bet. I just have to see how the 98% was calculated in order to agree with it.

And having witnessed so many incredible things that can go wrong in a race first time around two turns and a 1/4 mile or so further than the horse has ever tried, it would be hard for me to buy into having to win 20 in a row to double my investment.

Really glad you cashed on both. Keep up the good work.

I guess when it comes to horses, I'm scared for life with all the crazy stuff I saw. And because I always remembered the close losses more vividly than I did the close wins, the mental aspect for me is probably shot. Lol.
All the best TryX3.

I agree STR with your take. It ain't with the stretch. THX

[Easy-Rider 66]

126 Beyer figure for Flightline yesterday. One of the highest figures ever given.

[Jellymancan]

Flightline.

What an incredible performance.

So great to see. Wow !

Unbelievable performance. Curious to hear where you would place that performance overall compared to the best ones ever?

[mrginandtonic]

I agree also; it is not a win bet that I would do. I remember when Cigar and Gentlemen lost as the favorite. I especially remembered Cigar because Dare and Go who beat Cigar cost me my Pick 6 ticket in his previous race where I singled him and he came in second. To this day, I still don’t understand how he could have lost and then beat Cigar in the next race!! Anything can happen!

[mrginandtonic]

126 Beyer figure for Flightline yesterday. One of the highest figures ever given.

This horse is crazy fast; he could have beaten the track record easy if he wanted

[str]

Unbelievable performance. Curious to hear where you would place that performance overall compared to the best ones ever?

It's right up there with the top dogs.

That was breath taking.