Originally Posted by
str
It is an incredible edge. And while it is usually priced in from the public, it is sometimes not priced in enough. I know. That sounds crazy.
In this case, the horse is bred to dominate this group. So having Irad would give it a significant edge normally but because this horse is a firster , we have no idea of any ability meter or anything to gauge this horse with.
The works are painfully slow but having worked less than 5/8ths since February tells me that all those works are at the tail end of and 2 minute clip mile or mile and a 1/16th. That is the only thing that makes any sense of this.
No typical edge with the trainer in this going long on the race firster circumstance, at least statistically.
So I think it comes down to this. Either the horse has the ability to beat these and probably would with an average rider or the horse can not run at all and probably gets beat.
While having Irad is a HUGE advantage against other top riders which makes this like me against Shaq playing one on one, the horse has to at least be almost good enough or better to win today. And while this horse should win easily on it's own, and therefore is a huge standout with Irad, it's the horse that still has to at least be fit enough and capable of running at least somewhat.
If this was an open claimer and the horse showed the ability to run 2,3,4 against a group with an average rider and gets Irad against average riders, that horse will win most times. This is not that, so it becomes more about the horses fitness and needing at last minimal ability which it should have, instead of about a far superior jockey .
I hope that makes sense. Please follow up if it does not.
Thanks JBEX.