[BOA12]

Was the payout different from DRF vs. the actual track payout?

Yesterday no information. Just looked at results, show 2 races of results. Shows no P3 payout at all. Have nothing to gauge it by. Odd happening, maybe a consolation payout, I don't know.

[str]

Yesterday no information. Just looked at results, show 2 races of results. Shows no P3 payout at all. Have nothing to gauge it by. Odd happening, maybe a consolation payout, I don't know.

Did you have any losing ticket combinations or another way of asking is did you key the winner only in the 2nd race.?

[JBEX]

Yesterday no information. Just looked at results, show 2 races of results. Shows no P3 payout at all. Have nothing to gauge it by. Odd happening, maybe a consolation payout, I don't know.

guessing whatever the pool was divided by the number of combinations of the winning horse
in the p3 pool..since 1 race was run they have to account for it and divide the money

[JBEX]

pressed on the outside but started losing steam about 900 meters in and faded to lose by 4.5 lengths finishing 9th of 12 .. price 25 or 24-1

could see him returning to 1000 meters on the grass
maybe mid/late april..should have some nice conditioning from this race

[BOA12]

Did you have any losing ticket combinations or another way of asking is did you key the winner only in the 2nd race.?

R2 had 3 horses, so two losing combos. Was .50 3X2X1. Must be the consolation payout. Thanks str.

[BOA12]

guessing whatever the pool was divided by the number of combinations of the winning horse
in the p3 pool..since 1 race was run they have to account for it and divide the money

Makes sense J. Thanks. Bad streak of tracks cancelling.

[str]

R2 had 3 horses, so two losing combos. Was .50 3X2X1. Must be the consolation payout. Thanks str.

I think JBEX is probably right. Cancellations stink. We are just about through with the crummy weather though. GL BOA12

[str]

pressed on the outside but started losing steam about 900 meters in and faded to lose by 4.5 lengths finishing 9th of 12 .. price 25 or 24-1

could see him returning to 1000 meters on the grass
maybe mid/late April..should have some nice conditioning from this race

Yep. That race will help a lot with conditioning. Some small class relief might be all it needs.

Thanks JBEX.

[BOA12]

I think JBEX is probably right. Cancellations stink. We are just about through with the crummy weather though. GL BOA12

U2 str. Fast tracks always better.

[JBEX]

Yep. That race will help a lot with conditioning. Some small class relief might be all it needs.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str

horses over there all carry a rating which determines what level they can run at..that number can be adjusted up to 5 points I believe after a race..who's doing the rating ..well..I don't know lol..person(s) at the hong kong jockey club

class 5 .. 0-40
class 4 .. 40-60
class 3 .. 60-80
class 2 .. 80-100
class 1 ..100 -115

believe class 1 could be something like a listed stakes .. I get a little shakey at the higher end but they do have group level stakes there and they are not numbered..not that concerned about that as i'm mostly interested in the day to day avg races

my horse going into yesterday was an 82 but they raised the maximum rating qualification to 85 (they do this on occasion..maybe just to fill a race but I don't know)..he may lose 2 pts off that effort which would allow him back into 60-80's..also there is an 18-20 lb weight differential from lowest to highest rating..with top weight being in the low 130's..if you are top of the range in any category you will be carrying a lot more weight than the bottom..when you jump to the next level you will be weighted low..drop down a level you will be weighted on the high end

might be missing a few things but that's the gist of it

[JBEX]

hey str


gulfstream

R8 #11 easy to love (6-1)


wanted your opinion on this first time starter for bill mott..pedigree impeccable.. sire/dam/dam sire/progeny success
about as good as it gets..comes in from payson park off steady,solid works

one of those situations where I feel with these distance oriented
bloodlines 7f makes more sense
..possibly the reason they are starting him a little later for this crop..in addition the outside posts at 7f have been the place to be

understand this is the typical extremely strong msw field on the undercard of florida derby

while not mott's typical mo to win first out he's not terrible at it either (ok we'll call him avg)..when he does hit lots of times you'll get a nice price .. would think on a day like this
he would like to win with a firster maybe more-so than on a typical
racecard

[str]

hey str


gulfstream

R8 #11 easy to love (6-1)


wanted your opinion on this first time starter for bill mott..pedigree impeccable.. sire/dam/dam sire/progeny success
about as good as it gets..comes in from payson park off steady,solid works

one of those situations where I feel with these distance oriented
bloodlines 7f makes more sense
..possibly the reason they are starting him a little later for this crop..in addition the outside posts at 7f have been the place to be

understand this is the typical extremely strong msw field on the undercard of florida derby

while not mott's typical mo to win first out he's not terrible at it either (ok we'll call him avg)..when he does hit lots of times you'll get a nice price .. would think on a day like this
he would like to win with a firster maybe more-so than on a typical
racecard

I typically discourage looking at workouts on older horses and everyday horses. They are played with and I never trust them after all I saw. But in todays world and with these elite type babies, they can be trusted and sometimes they tell a story. I think this is one of those times.

This horse was stopped in August. She got her 90 days to be all set to train. Probably shins or something minor. Worked in early January and in her 2nd work, she went wild. A great work but no way Mott wanted that 2nd work back. So, he backed her down and worked every 7 days for the next month. Then, he waited 8 days which tells me he was ready to allow the horse to do a bit more in the work. ( maybe the track was off so this could be wrong ).She did not disappoint posting a bullet 1/2 mile work. He stays with 8 days, which is a bit longer than typical and posts a bullet 5/8ths. Gives her 11 days probably included in that are a couple of more trips to the gate to stand and not practice breaking anymore as she is ready to get her card, and posts her 3rd straight bullet out of then gate. She is all set so he waits 8 days for one final easy work and 8 days for todays debut.
You just can't draw it up any better than that JBEX.

She has been and is exactly on schedule. Trainers love that. Having Rosario means he gave that call to the agent at least 3 weeks ago in all probability. So she has done everything just right for the last month plus.

She draws the outside post going 7/8ths which is the best post to have. Never a coincidence when the outside does well with longer than normal runs down the backside. This goes for any distance including 4 1/2 F. at Charlestown out of the chute. You know how I feel about the box.

Great pedigree and distance makes perfect sense just as you noted.

Yes, it's a solid race with heavy hitters in it but if this horse is a nice one, and the horse has prepped like a nice one, she should represent herself well.
Mott wins with enough of these while still teaching relax that if it is in them to be able to win, they can. This one acts , at least in the morning like she can.

Yes, winning today would be an added bonus .

I like her. If I was handicapping and playing the card today, she would be my bet in this race. No doubt about it.
I think this is a great find and admire how you came to like her. You are dead on IMO.
Good luck with the play at what should be a decent price.

[JBEX]

I typically discourage looking at workouts on older horses and everyday horses. They are played with and I never trust them after all I saw. But in todays world and with these elite type babies, they can be trusted and sometimes they tell a story. I think this is one of those times.

This horse was stopped in August. She got her 90 days to be all set to train. Probably shins or something minor. Worked in early January and in her 2nd work, she went wild. A great work but no way Mott wanted that 2nd work back. So, he backed her down and worked every 7 days for the next month. Then, he waited 8 days which tells me he was ready to allow the horse to do a bit more in the work. ( maybe the track was off so this could be wrong ).She did not disappoint posting a bullet 1/2 mile work. He stays with 8 days, which is a bit longer than typical and posts a bullet 5/8ths. Gives her 11 days probably included in that are a couple of more trips to the gate to stand and not practice breaking anymore as she is ready to get her card, and posts her 3rd straight bullet out of then gate. She is all set so he waits 8 days for one final easy work and 8 days for todays debut.
You just can't draw it up any better than that JBEX.

She has been and is exactly on schedule. Trainers love that. Having Rosario means he gave that call to the agent at least 3 weeks ago in all probability. So she has done everything just right for the last month plus.

She draws the outside post going 7/8ths which is the best post to have. Never a coincidence when the outside does well with longer than normal runs down the backside. This goes for any distance including 4 1/2 F. at Charlestown out of the chute. You know how I feel about the box.

Great pedigree and distance makes perfect sense just as you noted.

Yes, it's a solid race with heavy hitters in it but if this horse is a nice one, and the horse has prepped like a nice one, she should represent herself well.
Mott wins with enough of these while still teaching relax that if it is in them to be able to win, they can. This one acts , at least in the morning like she can.

Yes, winning today would be an added bonus .

I like her. If I was handicapping and playing the card today, she would be my bet in this race. No doubt about it.
I think this is a great find and admire how you came to like her. You are dead on IMO.
Good luck with the play at what should be a decent price.

tremendous insight into her workout pattern which only you can give .. realize there's some speculation but like how you feel the 11 day break could be to acclimate her to the gate some more and get her card..I know you've mentioned getting their gate card before

[JBEX]

tremendous insight into her workout pattern which only you can give .. realize there's some speculation but like how you feel the 11 day break could be to acclimate her to the gate some more and get her card..I know you've mentioned getting their gate card before

hit post prematurely lol

[JBEX]

tremendous insight into her workout pattern which only you can give .. realize there's some speculation but like how you feel the 11 day break could be to acclimate her to the gate some more and get her card..I know you've mentioned getting their gate card before

also the fact that getting horses to relax is part of his training regimen but it's still possible for one to have talent enough to win first out anyway

all great stuff to know..glad you like her chances and appreciate the feedback as always

[str]

also the fact that getting horses to relax is part of his training regimen but it's still possible for one to have talent enough to win first out anyway

all great stuff to know..glad you like her chances and appreciate the feedback as always

Well, she was relaxed, that's for sure. She just seemed to find that long steady stride early and never really leave it.
That kind of drives me crazy but Mott gets a ton of possible greats every year so I guess it's ho hum to him.
If it was me, I would be very disappointed.

Maybe she comes into the next race with a better understanding of the competition. Maybe a little more on her toes. At no time did the rider have to restrain her from wanting to go. Maybe that's the whole point with Mott.

Firsters are all different . Heck, Secretariat got beat his first race. Still, I'm a bit disappointed after seeing a horse train literally perfect all the way up to race day.

Sorry about that JBEX.

[JBEX]

Well, she was relaxed, that's for sure. She just seemed to find that long steady stride early and never really leave it.
That kind of drives me crazy but Mott gets a ton of possible greats every year so I guess it's ho hum to him.
If it was me, I would be very disappointed.

Maybe she comes into the next race with a better understanding of the competition. Maybe a little more on her toes. At no time did the rider have to restrain her from wanting to go. Maybe that's the whole point with Mott.

Firsters are all different . Heck, Secretariat got beat his first race. Still, I'm a bit disappointed after seeing a horse train literally perfect all the way up to race day.

Sorry about that JBEX.

no problem str..too often it seems the one's who seem to have everything going for them run poorly
and the ones who have less positives tear it up..almost scary when everything lines up well lol


as you know you only have to be right every once in a while to make it all worthwhile

[JBEX]

hey str


parx R8

#2 jamie dreams (8-1)

I thought debut good experience and leg stretcher.. I have to think the trainer wasn't expecting a win next out with that crazy placement..maybe the kind of race the horse would get something out of to drop back in with maidens .. he didn't run a bad figure running against much better..trainer has very nice big sample numbers.. what do you think and if you like another go right ahead

looks like rain forecasted will start after the card is finished

[str]

hey str


parx R8

#2 jamie dreams (8-1)

I thought debut good experience and leg stretcher.. I have to think the trainer wasn't expecting a win next out with that crazy placement..maybe the kind of race the horse would get something out of to drop back in with maidens .. he didn't run a bad figure running against much better..trainer has very nice big sample numbers.. what do you think and if you like another go right ahead

looks like rain forecasted will start after the card is finished

More often than not, when you see a baby get beat and they run back quickly in a stake ( which means they were nominated prior to the first race run), the owners and barn are excited and they follow through with the Stakes start even though they lost first out. If they weren't, they would not have nominated prior to the first race right?
I used to see that repeat itself with a few trainers over the years. (Eddie Gaudet for one). It was the owners/trainers classic move. It rarely won that stake but they did it often enough to see a pattern. I always viewed it as crazy, but whatever. It is the way they ran their horses. At least they were consistent in doing it. And they probably won once which is one more than I ever would have won because I would not have done it. Lol.

So this one does have a chance. I think the tough part will be trying to beat the outside horse who beat this one the first time by 8 lengths and ran back to finish second but beat the 3rd horse by 6 and the rest by 15 or more. Having the box going 7/8ths makes that one real tough but I get trying to beat the favorite. Maybe play win and save with the outside horse on top of a straight exacta small. Just enough to save?
Like I said, I do understand trying to beat the favorite.

Good luck if you play JBEX !

[JBEX]

More often than not, when you see a baby get beat and they run back quickly in a stake ( which means they were nominated prior to the first race run), the owners and barn are excited and they follow through with the Stakes start even though they lost first out. If they weren't, they would not have nominated prior to the first race right?
I used to see that repeat itself with a few trainers over the years. (Eddie Gaudet for one). It was the owners/trainers classic move. It rarely won that stake but they did it often enough to see a pattern. I always viewed it as crazy, but whatever. It is the way they ran their horses. At least they were consistent in doing it. And they probably won once which is one more than I ever would have won because I would not have done it. Lol.

So this one does have a chance. I think the tough part will be trying to beat the outside horse who beat this one the first time by 8 lengths and ran back to finish second but beat the 3rd horse by 6 and the rest by 15 or more. Having the box going 7/8ths makes that one real tough but I get trying to beat the favorite. Maybe play win and save with the outside horse on top of a straight exacta small. Just enough to save?
Like I said, I do understand trying to beat the favorite.

Good luck if you play JBEX !

makes sense..to enter after the debut (if that's possible with this timing) doesn't

even that being said I like him exiting the fast race and making only his 3rd start..not that he did a lot but the figure was an improvement over his debut..if he ran a complete clunker wouldn't be interested here..no question the 8 is the one to beat


thanks str



.

[JBEX]

hey str

tampa

R9 #7 equinest (12-1) 4:20

can't see ml on this one at all..
1st race with new trainer last out was pretty darn good and you'd think cutting back a furlong would only help matters..returning in 7 days I guess could be positive or a negative (good shape vs too soon) depending on the trainers judgement..he sports a decent record overall..the jock probably helps the price but imo this is the type of race he should be hungry to win considering his poor record


if you can't get around to it it's a write-up..as always feel free to choose another

[str]

hey str

tampa

R9 #7 equinest (12-1) 4:20

can't see ml on this one at all..
1st race with new trainer last out was pretty darn good and you'd think cutting back a furlong would only help matters..returning in 7 days I guess could be positive or a negative (good shape vs too soon) depending on the trainers judgement..he sports a decent record overall..the jock probably helps the price but imo this is the type of race he should be hungry to win considering his poor record


if you can't get around to it it's a write-up..as always feel free to choose another

Just saw this and not much time so I didn't really look at the field. Have to assume they are all what they are in for . 10k claimers.

This one ran it s best race lifetime off extended time last out.
I like that. That says a lot about the horse mentally and physically. Same effort or a bit better cutting back and with that race under it's belt works for me.

GL if you play.

[JBEX]

Just saw this and not much time so I didn't really look at the field. Have to assume they are all what they are in for . 10k claimers.

This one ran it s best race lifetime off extended time last out.
I like that. That says a lot about the horse mentally and physically. Same effort or a bit better cutting back and with that race under it's belt works for me.

GL if you play.

thanks str

I'll try to find something for the opener at kee tomorrow..they are forecasting showers but think there's a reasonable chance they'll get through the card with at least a good track..let's hope

[JBEX]

Command performance simply ran out of air, or fitness. He did everything right and looked far superior down the backside.

He went from in hand and in control at the 1/2 mile pole, the red and white pole, to empty at about the 3/8ths pole. That's the Green and white pole around the far turn.

He looked sound, switched leads and just fine.
Simply not fit enough IMO.

Lets follow him for his next start JBEX.

bluegrass tomorrow..guess todd still very confident

[JBEX]

bluegrass tomorrow..guess todd still very confident

I really think his 2yo form is better than any of these but this crazy path to get here..I don't think todd would put him here if he didn't think he had a reasonable chance..losing a msw AT tampa to a g1 major derby prep .. intriguing

[str]

I really think his 2yo form is better than any of these but this crazy path to get here..I don't think todd would put him here if he didn't think he had a reasonable chance..losing a msw AT tampa to a g1 major derby prep .. intriguing

I tend to agree. His 2 year old form is overall better I think. That includes the favorite who was 2-2. Simply because he ran at 3 different tracks, east and west coast and improved each start. His races were G1 while the favorite was G2. I'm probably biased and making a case but in this one, it's not hard.

Looks like the favorite has pointed for this especially with that real fast bullet work exactly 4 weeks after his last race and 3 weeks before today. I expect him to run as well as he can. Chads horse is solid and should improve as well.
There are plenty of others in here but I don't see anything that is Derby worthy without a breakout performance today.

So that brings us to our boy Commandperformance. So this is race two of a three race plan that ends with the Ky. Derby ( if he is eligible. I don't follow the points thing so I have no clue. If not, I would expect him to run in the Preakness unless he runs a real dud in here or nicks himself up today.)

I guess the answer to the points thing should be looked at. So, can he run in the Derby without winning today? Let me know if you know. That goes a long way as to playing him today or not IMO.


But back to CP. First things first. They have to look back at the form and see what a terrible job they have done managing this horse. And there is only one reason for it. They are training and running according to the calendar and May 7th. Now, if he wins the Derby, they did a great job but if he runs 11th in the Derby, yikes. But this is what the Derby does. And don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking it (well maybe just a little as everything I was shown along the way points to this not working out well the vast majority of the time.), I'm grasping it and trying to analyze it.

So Irad follows this horse down to Ky. today which tells you he believes the same thing I wrote about which was simply being short last time. All things point towards that. So will he improve today? I can't see how he cannot improve today. He goes from the outside to the rail for starters. There is not a ton of speed in here but instead you have several horses that have solid position speed and want to lay 2-3 early.
On form that might include CP but even with the 1 post, I would be surprised if he would be on or right with the lead. I have to think that they want Irad to have a ton of horse down the backside , saving ground and finish up. That's easier said than done sometimes though. So a lot will be about the run to the first turn. But because of that 1 post, how far back can he be? And, Irad can't get shuffled back in to the 1st turn or down the backside either so it's tricky. But again, it's about relax and have horse going past the 1/2 mile pole ( green and white just before the far turn.)
But from that point on, the decisions Irad will be dealing with inside (probably) will control when to go and what to do. It's all about relax and finish today. That's how you win races and especially Derby's.

Do let me know if you can about the points thing. If today is a must win to run in the Derby, then I would absolutely bet him at what I would assume would be about 6-1 . Without knowing, I'm kind of lost on the wagering angle.

Thanks JBEX !

[JBEX]

no problem str

cp has 0 points

final preps

100-40-20-10

lexington next week

20-8-4-2

final preps


https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses




I'd say with a 2nd he has a 50/50 chance..above are the point standings

i guess since he was (and still is ) a maiden the plan was to take advantage of that condition and send him possibly to a major prep which they ultimately did even though they didn't expect him to still be a maiden going into it..I would think that meant they have a high opinion of the horse (msw - g1) if that indeed was the plan..if the plan was the derby without any other points it's questionable whether he'd get in with a 2nd in the major prep and maybe then they figured the preakness would be the choice


irad coming over and staying on the horse has to be a big plus for his chances..never seen anything like the % he hits in route races running on the ny circuit..really is on another level than the rest

[JBEX]

no problem str

cp has 0 points

final preps

100-40-20-10

lexington next week

20-8-4-2

final preps


https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses




I'd say with a 2nd he has a 50/50 chance..above are the point standings

i guess since he was (and still is ) a maiden the plan was to take advantage of that condition and send him possibly to a major prep which they ultimately did even though they didn't expect him to still be a maiden going into it..I would think that meant they have a high opinion of the horse (msw - g1) if that indeed was the plan..if the plan was the derby without any other points it's questionable whether he'd get in with a 2nd in the major prep and maybe then they figured the preakness would be the choice


irad coming over and staying on the horse has to be a big plus for his chances..never seen anything like the % he hits in route races running on the ny circuit..really is on another level than the rest

I think that's being a little kind looking at the other's points and what's happening today and maybe in the lexington next week..going to say 30% chance

[str]

I think that's being a little kind looking at the other's points and what's happening today and maybe in the lexington next week..going to say 30% chance

Well, with needing a big effort today to keep the dream alive, I see him as a play for sure.

The raw ability is there. Hopefully the fitness is as well. That last race got him to the 1/4 pole at least fitness wise. Those subsequent works gets him to the 1/8th pole I would say, maybe the 1/16th pole. The rest needs to come from the horse. The post should help as well.

Will he be better next out? Yes. But hopefully today he is good enough.

It's a play in my book .

Thanks for the info and good luck today JBEX and to anyone who plays along !

[mrginandtonic]

HeySTR, hope all is well. CP is a play in my book today too; considering that Irad is not riding Mo Donegal at the Wood. Don’t know how much of it’s Todd’s decision. Hopefully, he is around 6-1 (ML 12-1)

[str]

HeySTR, hope all is well. CP is a play in my book today too; considering that Irad is not riding Mo Donegal at the Wood. Don’t know how much of it’s Todd’s decision. Hopefully, he is around 6-1 (ML 12-1)

Hi Mr, GandT

Great to hear from you !

The Mo Donegal angle is one I had not thought about. It only strengthens the argument.

I am positive that getting beat in that maiden race was all about fitness last out. So from an ability standpoint, if you can use his previous races and he is still there ability wise, he runs real well today.
I'll take that, Irad and the need for points to the window all day long.
I assumed 6-1 as well. The 12-1 morning line is off it seems. Still think that is a fair price with all we have talked about in here.

Good luck with you plays today sir, I will play on this one as well.

Looking forward, towards the triple crown, don't make yourself so scarce Mr. GandT. I always enjoy talking with you.

All the best and thanks for checking in.

[stevenash]

Hi gang.

Where's the value in the Wood today at the Big 'A'

[mrginandtonic]

Hi Mr, GandT

Great to hear from you !

The Mo Donegal angle is one I had not thought about. It only strengthens the argument.

I am positive that getting beat in that maiden race was all about fitness last out. So from an ability standpoint, if you can use his previous races and he is still there ability wise, he runs real well today.
I'll take that, Irad and the need for points to the window all day long.
I assumed 6-1 as well. The 12-1 morning line is off it seems. Still think that is a fair price with all we have talked about in here.

Good luck with you plays today sir, I will play on this one as well.

Looking forward, towards the triple crown, don't make yourself so scarce Mr. GandT. I always enjoy talking with you.

All the best and thanks for checking in.

The ML is interesting on CP, the winner who beat him is 20-1 ML, I guess they can’t make it too low . Then it would too obvious??!! Lol

GL to you as well and can’t wait till the Derby. So far, haven’t really seen anyone jumps out of group. Today should be interesting.

[mrginandtonic]

Hi gang.

Where's the value in the Wood today at the Big 'A'

I’m taking a shot at 6- Skippylongstocking (ML 15-1)

[str]

Hi gang.

Where's the value in the Wood today at the Big 'A'

Not sure there is any in that race. If I had to pick I would take Chads horse Early Voting. The way I see it, if Chad can't keep that horse off the lead early, he must have some kind of motor. Lol.

A few of us so far think the value might be in Ky. with the horse we've been talking about today. Decent price. Now all he has to do is win. Right? Lol.

GL if you play Nasher.