[str]

the 1 and 2..I was thinking both won vs 25kn2l 2 races ago so being up for 8k today not good..but then I saw the 2 dId it in an off the turf race at 5f (turf sprint distance there)..so that's not really like a legit race at that level while the 1's is
..that fade pattern the 2 ran vs much faster 16's last out would be tough vs these (I like those gradual fades out of faster races as a primer)..won't get too ahead of myself cause i'm not taking either as the 2 will be an underlay here

The 1 horse got beat a head for 16k, came back in a 25k and was even money in a 5 horse field and won. That race must have been terrible. Then he gets crushed for 16nw3. This drop seems to look a little more suspicious but the only other choice I guess would be 12.5, so maybe a little suspicious but we know that the horse really never won a 25k with any kind of quality in it. Just a glorified 16k at best.

The 2 horse comes from a barn that seems to win a lot and dropped off the nw2 win , as it should, to try and compete. Seems this trainer cares about winning 1st. Horse runs a bad 4th in a 6 horse field at 7-2. I am guessing this trainer is a guy that likes to run favorites and try and be the best horse, thus the skip of 12.5 ( assuming there is one). So he jams the horse in. I'm fine with that. The true value of the horse diminished when it lost the nw2 condition so from a winning mindset, you drop in claiming price to try and continue to spot the horse in winning situations.
Neither horse looks " suspicious" like an open claimer winning and double dropping type horse IMO. While many barns will not drop the claiming price off a win and just advance to the next non winners at the same price, the aggressive trainer will cut the claiming price in conjunction with the true value of the horse which will typically lessen with each condition lost. The theory is that if they are going to win an old school wide open 12.5, they need to be better than those that win a nw2 12.5. As you know, those open claimers can have horses that have won 10 races and were winning allowance races when they had nw conditions.
So the final determination for me would be trainers patterns. But because I do not know either trainer, I have to assume soundness is not the problem and go strictly on the numbers and shown ability.
Does that make sense?

[JBEX]

The 1 horse got beat a head for 16k, came back in a 25k and was even money in a 5 horse field and won. That race must have been terrible. Then he gets crushed for 16nw3. This drop seems to look a little more suspicious but the only other choice I guess would be 12.5, so maybe a little suspicious but we know that the horse really never won a 25k with any kind of quality in it. Just a glorified 16k at best.

The 2 horse comes from a barn that seems to win a lot and dropped off the nw2 win , as it should, to try and compete. Seems this trainer cares about winning 1st. Horse runs a bad 4th in a 6 horse field at 7-2. I am guessing this trainer is a guy that likes to run favorites and try and be the best horse, thus the skip of 12.5 ( assuming there is one). So he jams the horse in. I'm fine with that. The true value of the horse diminished when it lost the nw2 condition so from a winning mindset, you drop in claiming price to try and continue to spot the horse in winning situations.
Neither horse looks " suspicious" like an open claimer winning and double dropping type horse IMO. While many barns will not drop the claiming price off a win and just advance to the next non winners at the same price, the aggressive trainer will cut the claiming price in conjunction with the true value of the horse which will typically lessen with each condition lost. The theory is that if they are going to win an old school wide open 12.5, they need to be better than those that win a nw2 12.5. As you know, those open claimers can have horses that have won 10 races and were winning allowance races when they had nw conditions.
So the final determination for me would be trainers patterns. But because I do not know either trainer, I have to assume soundness is not the problem and go strictly on the numbers and shown ability.
Does that make sense?

yes to me the 1 seems a little more suspicious.. even though it may have been a weak 25 he did win.. then he breaks bad at 16 and a double drop in class.. could see one level but 2 seems a lot

the trainer of the 2, per the trainer stats, regularly drops two levels and is successful at it although a sizeable loss for bettors.. so as you said he likes this move.. he's one of the better guys there.. considering that makes me less suspicious along with 3 efforts prior to the win at higher levels were big duds.. and the win itself for 25 was off the turf..so all in all drop seems to make sense but as I said think he'll be low odds

I'm going #3 I'll make you famous (8-1)...won at 88-1 last out and attended a fair pace.. back in 2 weeks.. low profile jock and trainer and spotted right.. I've found there's often a carryover effect when you win at huge odds with low profile connections (usually the case with high odds wins).. another chance to cash at a fair price

[JBEX]

don't know if saw my writeup but #7 in the 1st race is coming back on exactly the 1st day he's eligible for the condition.. like his back numbers besides

[JBEX]

do you feel when low profile connections win or run well they are overall underbet in their following race..just something I've casually noticed over the years without any records to back it up..kind of like the public thinks it's a fluke or something .. thanks str for your earlier response

[JBEX]

I missed the most obvious thing (at least imo).. it's a godolphin owned horse.. billionaires not too worried about $12.5 or $8k..getting unsharper by the day man.. I swear that didn't even cross my mind when I looked at that race and I know eoin harty trains for them which should have alerted me

[str]

don't know if saw my writeup but #7 in the 1st race is coming back on exactly the 1st day he's eligible for the condition.. like his back numbers besides

When this happens you at least know the trainer has been shooting for that exact race for weeks, for whatever that is worth.

[str]

do you feel when low profile connections win or run well they are overall underbet in their following race..just something I've casually noticed over the years without any records to back it up..kind of like the public thinks it's a fluke or something .. thanks str for your earlier response

Yes. We do see it a lot don't we. That has been the case for a long time. I can't really answer it because it is supported by the pool so a lot of people thought the same way. Everybody seems to lean away from the horse that showed up as a big price out of nowhere.
You can write some of those off to a big bias for sure, but certainly not all of them. Seems like not only was there an advantage for the long shot horse but a disadvantage for some of the better horses in the race.

Sometimes it's a pace thing that helps a real long shot win but as we see, sometimes there seems to be no reason at all, other than to say, bet you can't do that again.

[JBEX]

When this happens you at least know the trainer has been shooting for that exact race for weeks, for whatever that is worth.

agree.. have to like the horse besides which I did.. he wound up winning at around 4-1.. thanks

[JBEX]

Yes. We do see it a lot don't we. That has been the case for a long time. I can't really answer it because it is supported by the pool so a lot of people thought the same way. Everybody seems to lean away from the horse that showed up as a big price out of nowhere.
You can write some of those off to a big bias for sure, but certainly not all of them. Seems like not only was there an advantage for the long shot horse but a disadvantage for some of the better horses in the race.

Sometimes it's a pace thing that helps a real long shot win but as we see, sometimes there seems to be no reason at all, other than to say, bet you can't do that again.

the possibility of a bias is something I never thought of in conjunction with a longshot winning.. makes perfect sense why that might be the explanation on occasion.. but glad you agree that this does seem to happen a lot over time for whatever reason.. thanks str

[JBEX]

just so happens there's a horse goi g today that's a great example of this.. if you can look at gulfstream R9 #2 cowboy bob (20-1)..why? winning at 8kn2l and going 8kn3l I.. pace considerably faster than par a nd final fig higher than par.. mean who knows what he'll go off at but shows the lack of respect


side note: terry's the only trainer I've ever met in person.. had a friend who was a jockey agent and he introduced me at the meadowlands about 15 years.. very nice lady

[Barrakuda]

On the same track, how big of a deal is temperature (and/or humidity) in affecting speed figs? E.g., if the same horse runs the same track/dist/surf at 50 deg. vs. 80 deg., is there is general rule of thumb as to what adjustment to make?

[JBEX]

On the same track, how big of a deal is temperature (and/or humidity) in affecting speed figs? E.g., if the same horse runs the same track/dist/surf at 50 deg. vs. 80 deg., is there is general rule of thumb as to what adjustment to make?

when they make speed figures they need to determine how fast on slow the track was on any particular day..not going to go through that process but has to do with how fast a certain level of horse is supposed to run vs what they did run..they do this across the whole card to establish a variant..this is an art and not a science so there is no exact right answer..things often don't line up perfectlly..what they do from there to make the final figure goes beyond what I understand but establishing the variant is the heart of it

but to answer your question what the weather has been on that particular day or over a period of time can certainly contribute to how fast or slow the surface is ..but there doesn't need to be an adjustment to the final figure as the effects of that are included in the variant for that day

str could probably add something to this as he knows more about this than me but I'm pretty sure I'm in the ballpark with what I said

[str]

when they make speed figures they need to determine how fast on slow the track was on any particular day..not going to go through that process but has to do with how fast a certain level of horse is supposed to run vs what they did run..they do this across the whole card to establish a variant..this is an art and not a science so there is no exact right answer..things often don't line up perfectlly..what they do from there to make the final figure goes beyond what I understand but establishing the variant is the heart of it

but to answer your question what the weather has been on that particular day or over a period of time can certainly contribute to how fast or slow the surface is ..but there doesn't need to be an adjustment to the final figure as the effects of that are included in the variant for that day

str could probably add something to this as he knows more about this than me but I'm pretty sure I'm in the ballpark with what I said

Think you laid it out pretty well.

The degree difference should not matter much. As for the humidity, that could affect an individual horse, but not the overall card .

The variant is the key, but the trip can have a ton to do with it as well IMO.

[Barrakuda]

So generally speaking, if two horses run the same time in cold vs. hot weather (same track/dx), there is no blanket adjustment you would make based on temp., correct?

[JBEX]

So generally speaking, if two horses run the same time in cold vs. hot weather (same track/dx), there is no blanket adjustment you would make based on temp., correct?

wouldn't adjust a figure because of temperature

[str]

So generally speaking, if two horses run the same time in cold vs. hot weather (same track/dx), there is no blanket adjustment you would make based on temp., correct?

Correct. No blanket adjustment based on temperature.

[JBEX]

hey str

gulfstream R5 (run already) #8 pricey victory (30-1 ml)

a situation came up that I love and at least I feel like it's an edge but often feel on an island with it (which is kind of good lol).. I can describe it to you so no need to look but if you want to you'll see it better.. 5f turf sprint for clm $12.5k n2l..the gist of this is a mid to high 70's figure (brisnet) puts you in contention here

my horse last race was this (going to round off lengths behind for neatness)

tampa 3yo oc75k/n1x (5f turf) so considerably better race restricted to 3yo

my horse.. 7-4/6-5/7-9/8-12 (9 horse field) ( ran a 71 fig)

so losing by 12 and at 5f each length behind is worth about 2 points means this race's winner ran about a 95..i consider coming out of a race this much faster and running a final figure that's in range of what's needed today a good primer.. he also has back #'s as a 2YO (significant to me) that are fast enough (or close) to be competitive today

also worth noting my horse broke from the 9 post (widest) and was 4 wide on the turn


today he went off 135-1 and finished 10th (2nd to last lol)

line (rounded) 9-6/9-5/9-6/10-7.. 6 wide on the turn

now not trying to say a horse that finishes 10th ran a good race but at that price and figuring that every path on the turn is considered about a length really not terrible considering the price


but the main thing I'm interested in here is do you think his prior race was a nice primer for today's race..

[str]

hey str

gulfstream R5 (run already) #8 pricey victory (30-1 ml)

a situation came up that I love and at least I feel like it's an edge but often feel on an island with it (which is kind of good lol).. I can describe it to you so no need to look but if you want to you'll see it better.. 5f turf sprint for clm $12.5k n2l..the gist of this is a mid to high 70's figure (brisnet) puts you in contention here

my horse last race was this (going to round off lengths behind for neatness)

tampa 3yo oc75k/n1x (5f turf) so considerably better race restricted to 3yo

my horse.. 7-4/6-5/7-9/8-12 (9 horse field) ( ran a 71 fig)

so losing by 12 and at 5f each length behind is worth about 2 points means this race's winner ran about a 95..i consider coming out of a race this much faster and running a final figure that's in range of what's needed today a good primer.. he also has back #'s as a 2YO (significant to me) that are fast enough (or close) to be competitive today

also worth noting my horse broke from the 9 post (widest) and was 4 wide on the turn


today he went off 135-1 and finished 10th (2nd to last lol)

line (rounded) 9-6/9-5/9-6/10-7.. 6 wide on the turn

now not trying to say a horse that finishes 10th ran a good race but at that price and figuring that every path on the turn is considered about a length really not terrible considering the price


but the main thing I'm interested in here is do you think his prior race was a nice primer for today's race..

Yes, I was able to see the pp's.

So here is my question. I see the number he ran last out as a 71. Well beaten 12 lengths at Tampa in what I have to assume as the 8th race on a Wednesday, 12 days ago, was the feature race. Please correct me if I'm wrong. It was a optional claiming 75k n/w of 1 straight 3 year olds. In other words, it was written to be a pretty nice race quality wise ( I assume).

The only other turf race that day was an open F&M 10k claimer going a mile. Do they use mile turf and compare it to 5/8ths turf for number pars if those are the only 2 turf races that day?

I ask because I saw that the mile turf race went very slow early like 24 and 3, then 49 ( so 24 and 2 ), 1:13 which is 12 and 2 and 12 and 3 but they ran the last 1/8th in 12 and 1 as well as the last 1/4 in 24 and 2. So the race finished faster than it started . To look at the final time, you would think it was a poor race but the way they finished says to me, that somebody walked the dog on the lead and the time , while looking slow, was not nearly as bad as it might otherwise be.

Now, when I look at the raw time of the race in question, it does not seem crazy fast, but not knowing Tampa, maybe it is. It would be interesting to see how that 5/8th turf race arrived at a par, in order to see how it arrived at the Beyer. If they used the mile race, the par is off. If not, No clue how they arrived at a number with there only being one 5/8th's turf race. The horse in question got the highest Beyer in his last 4 races while losing by the most lengths of the last 4 races. That seems weird.

It would be interesting to know what I am asking because if you remember, I wrote in here, years ago I think, about how horses were getting very low beyers when the first started coming out, at CharlesTown on Tuesdays and Wednesdays not because of the slowness of the track, but because the slowness of the horses. The lack of quality of horses on the card made the track seem slow. With that , we could figure out which beyer was way off according to if they ran on a Tuesday or Wednesday or a Friday and a Saturday when the track was maybe a tad quicker but the quality of horse was waaay better. I think I remember you saying you read what I wrote about that but I'm not sure. Bottom line was, the Beyer was only as good as the person working at CharlesTown and it sure wasn't Andy. I thought Beyer corrected that after several years. Not sure at all about Tampa's situation though.

Anyway, let me know if you recall that old post and if you know the answer to my questions, let me know.

Like, IS that 5/8th's time crazy fast that allowed for the high Beyer?

And DO they use other distances as pars when there are only 2 turf races and the distances are drastically different ?


As for 135-1, after seeing some of the horses win or run very well down there with the form they show, anything is possible in Florida. Lol.

As for the primer race, it all depends on how the pars get set up with only one race at the distance. That is very important in my mind.

[JBEX]

Yes, I was able to see the pp's.

So here is my question. I see the number he ran last out as a 71. Well beaten 12 lengths at Tampa in what I have to assume as the 8th race on a Wednesday, 12 days ago, was the feature race. Please correct me if I'm wrong. It was a optional claiming 75k n/w of 1 straight 3 year olds. In other words, it was written to be a pretty nice race quality wise ( I assume).

The only other turf race that day was an open F&M 10k claimer going a mile. Do they use mile turf and compare it to 5/8ths turf for number pars if those are the only 2 turf races that day?

I ask because I saw that the mile turf race went very slow early like 24 and 3, then 49 ( so 24 and 2 ), 1:13 which is 12 and 2 and 12 and 3 but they ran the last 1/8th in 12 and 1 as well as the last 1/4 in 24 and 2. So the race finished faster than it started . To look at the final time, you would think it was a poor race but the way they finished says to me, that somebody walked the dog on the lead and the time , while looking slow, was not nearly as bad as it might otherwise be.

Now, when I look at the raw time of the race in question, it does not seem crazy fast, but not knowing Tampa, maybe it is. It would be interesting to see how that 5/8th turf race arrived at a par, in order to see how it arrived at the Beyer. If they used the mile race, the par is off. If not, No clue how they arrived at a number with there only being one 5/8th's turf race. The horse in question got the highest Beyer in his last 4 races while losing by the most lengths of the last 4 races. That seems weird.

It would be interesting to know what I am asking because if you remember, I wrote in here, years ago I think, about how horses were getting very low beyers when the first started coming out, at CharlesTown on Tuesdays and Wednesdays not because of the slowness of the track, but because the slowness of the horses. The lack of quality of horses on the card made the track seem slow. With that , we could figure out which beyer was way off according to if they ran on a Tuesday or Wednesday or a Friday and a Saturday when the track was maybe a tad quicker but the quality of horse was waaay better. I think I remember you saying you read what I wrote about that but I'm not sure. Bottom line was, the Beyer was only as good as the person working at CharlesTown and it sure wasn't Andy. I thought Beyer corrected that after several years. Not sure at all about Tampa's situation though.

Anyway, let me know if you recall that old post and if you know the answer to my questions, let me know.

Like, IS that 5/8th's time crazy fast that allowed for the high Beyer?

And DO they use other distances as pars when there are only 2 turf races and the distances are drastically different ?


As for 135-1, after seeing some of the horses win or run very well down there with the form they show, anything is possible in Florida. Lol.

As for the primer race, it all depends on how the pars get set up with only one race at the distance. That is very important in my mind.

hey str

just want to acknowledge your response and as always appreciate your insight..don't want to rush mine though as i'm getting at something that's important in my handicapping and want to sit on it overnight so I can present it the right way..I'll respond back tomorrow

I do agree on how do you make an accurate speed figure when there's only 1 turf sprint run on the card..also yes that type of race at tampa will draw a nice field...you have it right (alw n1x other than or $75k tag) for 3 year olds only

[JBEX]

Yes, I was able to see the pp's.

So here is my question. I see the number he ran last out as a 71. Well beaten 12 lengths at Tampa in what I have to assume as the 8th race on a Wednesday, 12 days ago, was the feature race. Please correct me if I'm wrong. It was a optional claiming 75k n/w of 1 straight 3 year olds. In other words, it was written to be a pretty nice race quality wise ( I assume).

The only other turf race that day was an open F&M 10k claimer going a mile. Do they use mile turf and compare it to 5/8ths turf for number pars if those are the only 2 turf races that day?

I ask because I saw that the mile turf race went very slow early like 24 and 3, then 49 ( so 24 and 2 ), 1:13 which is 12 and 2 and 12 and 3 but they ran the last 1/8th in 12 and 1 as well as the last 1/4 in 24 and 2. So the race finished faster than it started . To look at the final time, you would think it was a poor race but the way they finished says to me, that somebody walked the dog on the lead and the time , while looking slow, was not nearly as bad as it might otherwise be.

Now, when I look at the raw time of the race in question, it does not seem crazy fast, but not knowing Tampa, maybe it is. It would be interesting to see how that 5/8th turf race arrived at a par, in order to see how it arrived at the Beyer. If they used the mile race, the par is off. If not, No clue how they arrived at a number with there only being one 5/8th's turf race. The horse in question got the highest Beyer in his last 4 races while losing by the most lengths of the last 4 races. That seems weird.

It would be interesting to know what I am asking because if you remember, I wrote in here, years ago I think, about how horses were getting very low beyers when the first started coming out, at CharlesTown on Tuesdays and Wednesdays not because of the slowness of the track, but because the slowness of the horses. The lack of quality of horses on the card made the track seem slow. With that , we could figure out which beyer was way off according to if they ran on a Tuesday or Wednesday or a Friday and a Saturday when the track was maybe a tad quicker but the quality of horse was waaay better. I think I remember you saying you read what I wrote about that but I'm not sure. Bottom line was, the Beyer was only as good as the person working at CharlesTown and it sure wasn't Andy. I thought Beyer corrected that after several years. Not sure at all about Tampa's situation though.

Anyway, let me know if you recall that old post and if you know the answer to my questions, let me know.

Like, IS that 5/8th's time crazy fast that allowed for the high Beyer?

And DO they use other distances as pars when there are only 2 turf races and the distances are drastically different ?


As for 135-1, after seeing some of the horses win or run very well down there with the form they show, anything is possible in Florida. Lol.

As for the primer race, it all depends on how the pars get set up with only one race at the distance. That is very important in my mind.

I certainly understand where you're coming from with accuracy of the figure.. if that is off (especially by a lot) then this whole argument is a moot point.. as you mentioned in your initial response this is meant to be a good race with that condition and good chance it was a solid field.. that would lend credence to that number is possibly in the ballpark but in actuality there's no way of knowing for sure


I would like to go forward assuming it is accurate or close.. if that's the case do you think there's any significance to what I said.. running a 71 in a race that the winner runs around a 94-95 and what's needed today is around 78-80..all else being equal in the prior race(fair pace, no bias) just a good bunch of horses running a very fast race.. when that horse tries against much slower today could there be a positive carryover effect from the prior race?
(understand it didn't work for this horse but he was triple digits lol).. like he's putting forth the same effort as the fast race but now he's going comfortably 3 or 4 lengths off the pace at the 1st call moving very within himself.. maybe that actually gets the horses juices flowing and also he brings forward some conditioning from his last race.. there are other aspects of the previous race I consider (having to do with the running line) but don't want to get too far ahead of myself for now.. I use this strategy a lot (along with type of running line) and find horses come back lively and often at decent prices as they finished mid - back of the pack coming out of these fast races (should also mention these are brisnet figures and not beyers)


on the point about charlestown.. I thought that involved the form before the beyers were included? just going on that "primitive" average ticks off the track record from sprints and routes separately.. so if you ran in a cheaper race on the weekends the variant number you got would be lower than it should be with the higher quality of horses running.. this could lead to value if that horse came back to run on a weekday

[str]

I certainly understand where you're coming from with accuracy of the figure.. if that is off (especially by a lot) then this whole argument is a moot point.. as you mentioned in your initial response this is meant to be a good race with that condition and good chance it was a solid field.. that would lend credence to that number is possibly in the ballpark but in actuality there's no way of knowing for sure


I would like to go forward assuming it is accurate or close.. if that's the case do you think there's any significance to what I said.. running a 71 in a race that the winner runs around a 94-95 and what's needed today is around 78-80..all else being equal in the prior race(fair pace, no bias) just a good bunch of horses running a very fast race.. when that horse tries against much slower today could there be a positive carryover effect from the prior race?
(understand it didn't work for this horse but he was triple digits lol).. like he's putting forth the same effort as the fast race but now he's going comfortably 3 or 4 lengths off the pace at the 1st call moving very within himself.. maybe that actually gets the horses juices flowing and also he brings forward some conditioning from his last race.. there are other aspects of the previous race I consider (having to do with the running line) but don't want to get too far ahead of myself for now.. I use this strategy a lot (along with type of running line) and find horses come back lively and often at decent prices as they finished mid - back of the pack coming out of these fast races (should also mention these are brisnet figures and not beyers)


on the point about charlestown.. I thought that involved the form before the beyers were included? just going on that "primitive" average ticks off the track record from sprints and routes separately.. so if you ran in a cheaper race on the weekends the variant number you got would be lower than it should be with the higher quality of horses running.. this could lead to value if that horse came back to run on a weekday

I broke these apart so I was sure to answer all of them as accurately as possible. Great discussion !

Q. I would like to go forward assuming it is accurate or close.. if that's the case do you think there's any significance to what I said.. running a 71 in a race that the winner runs around a 94-95 and what's needed today is around 78-80..all else being equal in the prior race(fair pace, no bias) just a good bunch of horses running a very fast race.. when that horse tries against much slower today could there be a positive carryover effect from the prior race?

A. Yes, I think your thinking is sound. It makes sense. Mainly because what the heck, the horse seemed to run a better overall effort according to the numbers. The logic of.. run back to the same effort and the horse is right in the mix. I don't think you have a choice if you follow numbers. That , in my mind, is exactly what they are made to do, which is show ability and even better, hidden ability, like that effort was trying to show.

Q. (understand it didn't work for this horse but he was triple digits lol).

A. Yes, but in defense of that poor race, it is not fair to scrutinize after the fact win or lose. It has to make sense and your angle does just that. I am just concerned as to how they arrived at a par in order to assign a number.

Q. like he's putting forth the same effort as the fast race but now he's going comfortably 3 or 4 lengths off the pace at the 1st call moving very within himself..

A. agreed.

Q. maybe that actually gets the horses juices flowing and also he brings forward some conditioning from his last race.

A. Not only the horses confidence and juices flowing but that of the riders as well.

Q. there are other aspects of the previous race I consider (having to do with the running line) but don't want to get too far ahead of myself for now..

A. I would love to hear them.

Q. I use this strategy a lot (along with type of running line) and find horses come back lively and often at decent prices as they finished mid - back of the pack coming out of these fast races

A. I used to use that theory claiming horses long before any figures. All I had was the track variant. It actually worked often enough to go back to it and certainly consider it. Had to know the days in conjunction with the dates though for reasons I explained in my previous post about days of the week and strength of card. And honestly, I never heard ANY trainer or owner ever talk about that so I don't know if the whole world thought they had the secret Lol, or if nobody really used that method. But I did, a lot !


Q. (should also mention these are brisnet figures and not beyers)

A. Yes. And we really have to know how they calculate solo races at a distance and surface if we are going to trust them IMO.

Q. on the point about charlestown.. I thought that involved the form before the beyers were included?

A. It was the variant for sure prior to the figures being published but for the first couple of years after being in the form in the early 90's I'm pretty sure, IMO, the Beyers were a mess.
In the beginning, if I understand it correctly, they relied a lot on the person at each track making the figures. And maybe they just had someone inexperienced at CT. I just don't know. But for a few years, I felt they were terribly inaccurate. I lost track somewhere in the mid 90's and left the game several years after that.

Q. just going on that "primitive" average ticks off the track record from sprints and routes separately.. so if you ran in a cheaper race on the weekends the variant number you got would be lower than it should be with the higher quality of horses running.. this could lead to value if that horse came back to run on a weekday

A. Those were the days JBEX.

[JBEX]

I broke these apart so I was sure to answer all of them as accurately as possible. Great discussion !

Q. I would like to go forward assuming it is accurate or close.. if that's the case do you think there's any significance to what I said.. running a 71 in a race that the winner runs around a 94-95 and what's needed today is around 78-80..all else being equal in the prior race(fair pace, no bias) just a good bunch of horses running a very fast race.. when that horse tries against much slower today could there be a positive carryover effect from the prior race?

A. Yes, I think your thinking is sound. It makes sense. Mainly because what the heck, the horse seemed to run a better overall effort according to the numbers. The logic of.. run back to the same effort and the horse is right in the mix. I don't think you have a choice if you follow numbers. That , in my mind, is exactly what they are made to do, which is show ability and even better, hidden ability, like that effort was trying to show.

Q. (understand it didn't work for this horse but he was triple digits lol).

A. Yes, but in defense of that poor race, it is not fair to scrutinize after the fact win or lose. It has to make sense and your angle does just that. I am just concerned as to how they arrived at a par in order to assign a number.

Q. like he's putting forth the same effort as the fast race but now he's going comfortably 3 or 4 lengths off the pace at the 1st call moving very within himself..

A. agreed.

Q. maybe that actually gets the horses juices flowing and also he brings forward some conditioning from his last race.

A. Not only the horses confidence and juices flowing but that of the riders as well.

Q. there are other aspects of the previous race I consider (having to do with the running line) but don't want to get too far ahead of myself for now..

A. I would love to hear them.

Q. I use this strategy a lot (along with type of running line) and find horses come back lively and often at decent prices as they finished mid - back of the pack coming out of these fast races

A. I used to use that theory claiming horses long before any figures. All I had was the track variant. It actually worked often enough to go back to it and certainly consider it. Had to know the days in conjunction with the dates though for reasons I explained in my previous post about days of the week and strength of card. And honestly, I never heard ANY trainer or owner ever talk about that so I don't know if the whole world thought they had the secret Lol, or if nobody really used that method. But I did, a lot !


Q. (should also mention these are brisnet figures and not beyers)

A. Yes. And we really have to know how they calculate solo races at a distance and surface if we are going to trust them IMO.

Q. on the point about charlestown.. I thought that involved the form before the beyers were included?

A. It was the variant for sure prior to the figures being published but for the first couple of years after being in the form in the early 90's I'm pretty sure, IMO, the Beyers were a mess.
In the beginning, if I understand it correctly, they relied a lot on the person at each track making the figures. And maybe they just had someone inexperienced at CT. I just don't know. But for a few years, I felt they were terribly inaccurate. I lost track somewhere in the mid 90's and left the game several years after that.

Q. just going on that "primitive" average ticks off the track record from sprints and routes separately.. so if you ran in a cheaper race on the weekends the variant number you got would be lower than it should be with the higher quality of horses running.. this could lead to value if that horse came back to run on a weekday

A. Those were the days JBEX.

i'm glad to hear that you agree with the angle.. I will definitely share some of the running lines that go along with it that I feel make it more effective.. generally speaking without much explaining I like horses who fade gradually exiting races that are at least 4 lengths faster than what they'd need to win today..that's a baseline and other things have to fall in place also.. I feel there's a certain conditioning they get from those type of races that sets them up for a better effort next out..I have been observing this with the addition of speed figures since the mid 90's.. the thinking process for this started with a system I bought back in 1986.. still have the small book lol.. I modified it a lot and of course back when I bought it there were no beyer figs in the racing form.. it's never bad value-wise to be on horses who lost ground in their last race as obviously bettors are looking for the opposite

I like the rider part that you mentioned.. must be a great feeling for a jockey to be on a horse who's relaxed, in control and you know when he needs to be called on it'll be there.. can see that leading to making better decisions over the course of the race


thanks for the feedback str and I'll definitely get back to you with some additional things I feel are important.. just give me a little time as want to present things in a coherent manner and I won't if I rush it

[JBEX]

hey str

there's a horse in R7 @ tampa that's coming out of the same race as the horse you answered my question about yesterday..he's dropping and stretching out vs 3yo 20k clm today..not quite the running line I look for but something I think will be useful for him..without the drop and that last race being fast wouldn't be interested in this spot..trained by ed allard (called ned??) someone i'm sure you know of..he's a solid long term guy I believe and having a decent tampa meet..has a modest pedigree and drop doesn't bother me..actually broke his maiden first try in a $25k mdn claimer at laurel going 5f on the turf last year as a 2yo ..interesting they shipped him to saratoga for start 2 in a listed stakes going 2 turns but that was probably a little much to ask..this more realistic assignment


#1 river hawk (10-1)

[str]

hey str

there's a horse in R7 @ tampa that's coming out of the same race as the horse you answered my question about yesterday..he's dropping and stretching out vs 3yo 20k clm today..not quite the running line I look for but something I think will be useful for him..without the drop and that last race being fast wouldn't be interested in this spot..trained by ed allard (called ned??) someone i'm sure you know of..he's a solid long term guy I believe and having a decent tampa meet..has a modest pedigree and drop doesn't bother me..actually broke his maiden first try in a $25k mdn claimer at laurel going 5f on the turf last year as a 2yo ..interesting they shipped him to saratoga for start 2 in a listed stakes going 2 turns but that was probably a little much to ask..this more realistic assignment


#1 river hawk (10-1)

Sorry for the late response. Yesterday was nuts.

Yeah, I do know Ned enough to exchange hellos but never was very close . Very capable horseman. But.. he does shoot for the moon with a baby every now and then. Always has.. sometimes. Not a knock, that's just how he has played it over the years.



Saw the charts and it seems he was rank and fighting the rider early, and ducked in at some point. Sounded like a rough trip.

[JBEX]

Sorry for the late response. Yesterday was nuts.

Yeah, I do know Ned enough to exchange hellos but never was very close . Very capable horseman. But.. he does shoot for the moon with a baby every now and then. Always has.. sometimes. Not a knock, that's just how he has played it over the years.



Saw the charts and it seems he was rank and fighting the rider early, and ducked in at some point. Sounded like a rough trip.

no problem str.. very rough and was rank .. he was very game though at least I thought so.. gave him to harthebar to follow

[str]

no problem str.. very rough and was rank .. he was very game though at least I thought so.. gave him to harthebar to follow

Perfect.

[Louisvillekid1]

When your crossed entered in 2 races , what’s the cut off the decide?

I ask because if you have a horse that needs the lead or needs pace to run into, something specific

can you cross entered , look at the fields and see which fits better?

I know the condition book your entering blind, but I do remember hearing about kinds rice getting caught

getting info from the clerk / secretary

thanks

[Louisvillekid1]

Do you have to pay double to cross enter ?

I hear people say “ so and so” trainer did an excellent job , spotting this horse in the field as it sets up perfectly ..

if you could handicapp and enter , of course

but that isn’t the case

if so that would be my perfect job

I wonder if trainer to trainer phone calls are made

after condition book is out

anyway , you understand what I’m asking as a whole


im basically speaking to the depth of the condition book
-just to ice the cake on the topic , do you have to pay to enter mto ? How much in general cost to ship a horse?

what do you pay entering a race that doesn’t require qualification?

[str]

When your crossed entered in 2 races , what’s the cut off the decide?

I ask because if you have a horse that needs the lead or needs pace to run into, something specific

can you cross entered , look at the fields and see which fits better?

I know the condition book your entering blind, but I do remember hearing about kinds rice getting caught

getting info from the clerk / secretary

thanks

There are a bunch of different scenarios with cross entering. I would need a specific situation to address it completely.

Can you give me more info like a stake race, entered two days in a row, or two different tracks the same day? I will give you some answers now but they are probably not going to nail the exact situation.

Q. I ask because if you have a horse that needs the lead or needs pace to run into, something specific

can you cross entered , look at the fields and see which fits better?

A. When you could run entries, I would do that all the time in mid level claiming races when I had multiples to run. And depending on how the race shaped up, I took my best shot. But that is when you could scratch 1/2 the entry very late and not mess up the betting public.

On a single entered horse a trainer can get into a boat load of trouble entering same day at 2 different tracks. The Penn. Nat. Stewards got so angry at King T. when he entered an old starter handicap horse at both Pimlico and Penn. Nat. same day that they made him run the horse at both places if he ran at all. And he did! At Pimlico ( I think, maybe Bowie) that day and finished 3rd, and Penn. Nat. that night and finished 2nd. Both were small fields and neither track would let him out of it. Needless to say, that ended that stuff.

Now if you see a horse entered one day and then the next, chances are, the Racing Secretary has asked the trainer to enter back to help fill a race. I saw that happen with Wesley Ward at Gulfstream with a baby a few weeks ago.

Q. I know the condition book your entering blind, but I do remember hearing about kinds rice getting caught

getting info from the clerk / secretary

A. Yes. She is some real trouble there. Not sure how she avoids suspension for that. You are not supposed to be able to know who is in the race prior to entering. If they can prove she paid for that info, Uh Oh.

Which I could answer better but please provide some more info or specifics.

Thanks.

[str]

Do you have to pay double to cross enter ?

I hear people say “ so and so” trainer did an excellent job , spotting this horse in the field as it sets up perfectly ..

if you could handicapp and enter , of course

but that isn’t the case

if so that would be my perfect job

I wonder if trainer to trainer phone calls are made

after condition book is out

anyway , you understand what I’m asking as a whole


im basically speaking to the depth of the condition book
-just to ice the cake on the topic , do you have to pay to enter mto ? How much in general cost to ship a horse?

what do you pay entering a race that doesn’t require qualification?

Q. Do you have to pay double to cross enter ?

A. You only pay to enter into Stake races. All other races are free to enter.

Q. I hear people say “ so and so” trainer did an excellent job , spotting this horse in the field as it sets up perfectly ..

A. Yeah, that's a load of crap. It worked out that way. It's against racing law to know the horses entered and then decide who to enter. Again, that is why Linda is in hot water, right?

Q. if you could handicapp and enter , of course

but that isn’t the case

if so that would be my perfect job

A. Lol. Yes, it would be your perfect job Kid. And yes, I did that, totally legally by entering a speed horse and a closer or stalker , in an entry, which enabled me to see the layout of the race as well as post position and weather, and decide which was better suited. Of course, you need the owners to be on board with that or you lose a client right? Nobody wants to be used to help another owner at your expense.
It always sounds easier than it really is.

Q. I wonder if trainer to trainer phone calls are made

after condition book is out

A. I guess a few might talk every now and then but overall, no. I never told people who I was using for what race. That could lessen my edge of paying more attention to claiming racers than most others did. If it was the favorite, I would never tell others about that. That might cost me a race filling. But... the agent knew who I was wanting to ride, for instance, I wanted Kent or Edgar and I ask the agent are you taken in some race and they say, no or yes, I'm riding one for (whoever) in that spot. Well, it didn't take much for me to have a pretty clear idea of who that horse was and that gave me info on a race as to at least one horse that will probably be in it. But in most cases, I already knew that going in. And the agent would not divulge the horses name, so sometimes I assumed wrong but if I knew the race and who he was on last time for that other trainer, I had a decent idea of who that horse might be.

Also, that agent would be possibly shooting themselves in the foot to tell you who the horse was, then I don't enter and the race does not fill. See what I mean? So, it kind of polices itself that way. And you can't train your horse properly while going around ducking a bunch of horses. It's so counter productive, it would drive you nuts. And in almost all cases, if I'm so busy ducking several horses, I should just drop down and none of them will be there and I'm even money.
guess what I'm saying is, if everything needs to be perfect to win at a spot, the spot below it allows for error and still a win.

The most important thing about this is that the trainers are NOT thinking like the bettor. They have a job to do and it would be a very poor training job to try and duck all sorts of horses to be the best. For instance, you work your horse 5/8ths an exact amount of days prior to race day, then alter your plans and work them 3/8ths 2 days before, change up again and repeat the 3/8ths work and now you have worked a horse 3/8ths twice in a week to run a mile and an 1/8th. If you didn't get fired for doing that, you probably should have.
Like I said, if you need all that, just drop.

Q. -just to ice the cake on the topic , do you have to pay to enter mto ?

A. They did not have that when I was there but I cannot imagine you do. It can only help to have horses added to a turf race if it falls apart. Management has to love that concept. Bettors should as well.

The only payments I ever knew of are Stakes races, Like 100 to nominate, 500 to enter and 500 to start. Something like that. The conditions usually spell that out.

Q. How much in general cost to ship a horse?

A. I would probably get sticker shock for today's prices but it was all about purse structure. Just like shoeing a horse. You charge as much as you can knowing what owners can afford to pay to go to certain places. My guess. Probably 400 to go from Md. to Parx. and back. Maybe 600 to Monmouth and back. Less for Penn. Nat and CT as they are closer to Md. Shipping two or sharing a ride helps a lot with that if you can do it. Of course, it's not 1/2 the price for one but it's like 150% charge split , so you do save some money but if you are in the 1st and the other is in the last, that sucks and is not worth making your horse and groom stick around for 3 more hours that could be used for sleeping. There are a lot of things to consider when doing that stuff.

Q. what do you pay entering a race that doesn’t require qualification?

A. Not sure what you mean, but again, other than Stakes, no cost to enter was always the deal .

[Louisvillekid1]

Thanks for the responses str

great info

and when scenario comes up ill share

[Louisvillekid1]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._Cup_bound_123

in case you missed in my thread

thought you wanna she is Amazing mare

will win breeders cup this year even with the short kenneland stretch

just wanted to ask if you ever seen a horse switch leads that many times

she does it all the time

I’ll try to find the head on

[Louisvillekid1]

Lol jock says go

pushes button

she says ok no problem I can do that

[str]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._Cup_bound_123

in case you missed in my thread

thought you wanna she is Amazing mare

will win breeders cup this year even with the short kenneland stretch

just wanted to ask if you ever seen a horse switch leads that many times

she does it all the time

I’ll try to find the head on

No head on needed, I could see her switching just fine.

Usually I would be concerned about that switching as it might show she is not comfortable. But that does not appear to be the case here.

Watching her run and looking at her head, ears, and mannerisms she looks like she is extremely intelligent. I know that might sound dumb but many really nice horses are of above average intelligence. She shows that IMO.

Did you check out her blinkers? They are not blinklers as they have no cups but instead they cover her ears. Man, she looked like Batgirl out there. Several horses wore those.

Very cool and very impressive.

Thanks for the link !

[mrginandtonic]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._Cup_bound_123

in case you missed in my thread

thought you wanna she is Amazing mare

will win breeders cup this year even with the short kenneland stretch

just wanted to ask if you ever seen a horse switch leads that many times

she does it all the time

I’ll try to find the head on

Wow, she went 1:30.6!! just off the course record according to the article... that's with a hand ride??!! Impressive!!

Who has the fastest course record for the mile?? Fastest in the states is 1:31.23.