[str]

hey he came to life in his 3rd career start and got a win at 35-1and was triple digits before that just like his last race..anything possible at these tracks

This is a one mile track?? HAHAHA. Didn't we watch a race here last week where the 6F race started just before the wire??? LOLOLOL.
I'm so confused.

[JBEX]

This is a one mile track?? HAHAHA. Didn't we watch a race here last week where the 6F race started just before the wire??? LOLOLOL.
I'm so confused.

it is a 1 mIle track..I started out calling it a bullring because I had some preconceived notion it was..then I thought it wasn't but you told me it was lol..that's on me as I'm the one playing it regularly ..the race we watched last week was a 1 mile race..honestly I've never had so much doubt about the dimensions of a track as i've had with this one ..but is a mile

[str]

Yes. Mile track. Not a bullring.
Guess I thought the other race was 6F.
Unreal. Hope I didn’t mess you up.
So the rail wins at 22% on a mile track?? Hmm.

[JBEX]

Yes. Mile track. Not a bullring.
Guess I thought the other race was 6F.
Unreal. Hope I didn’t mess you up.
So the rail wins at 22% on a mile track?? Hmm.

looks like 26 of the 42 routes are won by the inside 3 posts and 10 of those wins are the rail..pretty extreme inside bias to say the least

[JBEX]

only 2 of 42 from the 8 post out so mine put in a pretty nice effort

[str]

only 2 of 42 from the 8 post out so mine put in a pretty nice effort

The 8 horse ran a great race. That poor post % is tough to overcome. Great call JBEX.

[JBEX]

The 8 horse ran a great race. That poor post % is tough to overcome. Great call JBEX.

thanks..that's one of the more extreme biases I've ever seen and it's over a decent sample of races but not big enough imo..you recall anything like that from posts 1-3 ?

[Louisvillekid1]

We should make a thread showing the tracks

like which mile races are 1 turns , etc...



if no turns its basically a sprint


but the tracks turning going 6.5, might as be a route

[JBEX]

a horse running well at 7f holds more weight to me than a horse going two turns @ 8-9f when evaluating a 1 turn mile race

[harthebar]

str i bought this at a yard sale for 25 can you see the details

[NoDraMa4YoMaMa]

Weird generic question. What tracks have low end horse. I assume tampa and gulf are relatively equal with fonner and will rodgers lower. Where does remington and oaklawn fit?

[JBEX]

Weird generic question. What tracks have low end horse. I assume tampa and gulf are relatively equal with fonner and will rodgers lower. Where does remington and oaklawn fit?

major: oaklawn gulfstream
next level :sam houston, remington
another level down:will rogers,tampa
lowest: fonner

purses at sam houston and remington are significantly better than will and tampa at least at the allowance and maiden level..think there's a big drop off when it gets to claiming races (meaning purse differential not as drastic) but could be wrong about that as I don't follow sam and remington regularly..but above would be my hierarchy

[NoDraMa4YoMaMa]

major: oaklawn gulfstream
next level :sam houston, remington
another level down:will rogers,tampa
lowest: fonner

purses at sam houston and remington are significantly better than will and tampa at least at the allowance and maiden level..think there's a big drop off when it gets to claiming races (meaning purse differential not as drastic) but could be wrong about that as I don't follow sam and remington regularly..but above would be my hierarchy

Thanks bro

[JBEX]

Thanks bro

no problem

[JBEX]

You see it perfectly. It IS incredible, the money that they can reap from it.

His foals have been really solid so far. Capitalism , as you said, at it's best.

And sure, they can try and work any deals they want to. If the buyer is willing , it's all free game.

guess yearling sales like this justify, no pun intended lol, it..half to into mischief,beholder and mendelsohn..wow


https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...y_and_more_123

[JBEX]

hey str..thought you might be interested in knowing..hot springs had close to 2 inches of rain yesterday and about half of it came between 10-11pm last night (I look at natonal weather service site )..ended by 1am and no rain predicted today..with the off days thought that might be interesting to you but probably other variables would come into play as to how it might affect the track

[str]

hey str..thought you might be interested in knowing..hot springs had close to 2 inches of rain yesterday and about half of it came between 10-11pm last night (I look at natonal weather service site )..ended by 1am and no rain predicted today..with the off days thought that might be interesting to you but probably other variables would come into play as to how it might affect the track

Because they were dark, they had ample time to prepare the track for the heavy rain. Watching the races or looking at charts there for the first time ever, what I have seen is a railish type track the first day back from being dark for a few days. What that told me was, (which makes perfect sense), is that the track is graded during the dark days before the 4 day week of racing. But, like most tracks, on very important Grade 1 Saturdays or Sundays, they want a fast ( time wise) track for those days. We have talked about that in here fairly recently. That , IMO, seemed to be the case when they ran the Apple Blossom last week. ( I have been trying to identify a pattern ever since we saw such a crazy outside closers/ deep inside 2 weeks ago). So it stands to reason that today would be sloppy, probably inside and probably favor speed to at least some extent as most sloppy tracks do, again, for reasons we have discussed. Hard to believe with all that rain coming that they would let the rail get deep but.. you never know.
You cannot handicap for anything but a typical off track at this point, but watching the 1st and 2nd race, and betting them if you want, is a must in order to get the bias, if any, understood. Hopefully, there is none. But, if a bias exists, it is really important in my eyes to see it and use that knowledge to help decide who to bet and who not to bet and why throughout the rest of the card as well as take notes on horses affected by a bias for their next start. A huge edge IMO when those notes are plugged into your form but not most players forms.
Thanks JBEX. We will keep an eye out for that.

[harthebar]

guess yearling sales like this justify, no pun intended lol, it..half to into mischief,beholder and mendelsohn..wow


https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...y_and_more_123

they paid 8,2 mill for the horse wow....... good luck to them....

[str]

major: oaklawn gulfstream
next level :sam houston, remington
another level down:will rogers,tampa
lowest: fonner

purses at sam houston and remington are significantly better than will and tampa at least at the allowance and maiden level..think there's a big drop off when it gets to claiming races (meaning purse differential not as drastic) but could be wrong about that as I don't follow sam and remington regularly..but above would be my hierarchy

Agreed, but I do admit I have no clue about Remington. Only thing I might add is Gulfstream, in normal years, does tail off quality wise in late March most years when the NY trainers go back north until the following January.
When in doubt, check the purses. Money attracts the quality and bad purses chase it away is the rule of thumb.

[str]

str i bought this at a yard sale for 25 can you see the details

I can see the details. Is this cloth and what exactly is it?

[JBEX]

they paid 8,2 mill for the horse wow....... good luck to them....

that's really about as good as it gets pedigree-wise.. beholder was a monster, into mischief $175k stud fee and mendelsohn cost $3M and she's a half sibling to those by american pharoah

[JBEX]

Because they were dark, they had ample time to prepare the track for the heavy rain. Watching the races or looking at charts there for the first time ever, what I have seen is a railish type track the first day back from being dark for a few days. What that told me was, (which makes perfect sense), is that the track is graded during the dark days before the 4 day week of racing. But, like most tracks, on very important Grade 1 Saturdays or Sundays, they want a fast ( time wise) track for those days. We have talked about that in here fairly recently. That , IMO, seemed to be the case when they ran the Apple Blossom last week. ( I have been trying to identify a pattern ever since we saw such a crazy outside closers/ deep inside 2 weeks ago). So it stands to reason that today would be sloppy, probably inside and probably favor speed to at least some extent as most sloppy tracks do, again, for reasons we have discussed. Hard to believe with all that rain coming that they would let the rail get deep but.. you never know.
You cannot handicap for anything but a typical off track at this point, but watching the 1st and 2nd race, and betting them if you want, is a must in order to get the bias, if any, understood. Hopefully, there is none. But, if a bias exists, it is really important in my eyes to see it and use that knowledge to help decide who to bet and who not to bet and why throughout the rest of the card as well as take notes on horses affected by a bias for their next start. A huge edge IMO when those notes are plugged into your form but not most players forms.
Thanks JBEX. We will keep an eye out for that.

no problem str.. will keep an eye out for it.. don't have a good feel for the card there today so give me something to look for

[harthebar]

I can see the details. Is this cloth and what exactly is it?

yes its cloth inside its framed ..... my buddy wanted to buy it from he is a sports collector he offered me 200 i said no lol its cool and i never seen anything like it ..have you

[JBEX]

str i bought this at a yard sale for 25 can you see the details

that's a neat thing hart.. ends my birth year

[str]

yes its cloth inside its framed ..... my buddy wanted to buy it from he is a sports collector he offered me 200 i said no lol its cool and i never seen anything like it ..have you

No, I had not seen that before.

Very cool piece from over 50 years ago. I would hang on to that for now if I were you.

Might post a few old things I have come across from the track years. Nothing else to do right? Lol.

[Louisvillekid1]

Hey I shared in my thread

But in case you missed

So cool

I feel so close to this horse, my buddy mike came over today to watch

And just to hear Mr. Casse call him after race , is awesome for me

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...tream_Park_123

-They messed up the article

My good friend mike , still owns 20% but sold the horse to Gary Barber , didn’t purchase after. He bred the horse

The shek owned Khozan and they bred with his broodmares , but Mike always wanted to target Khozan , his sire fee going way up.

Great find , by him ... horse was 2 for 2 and got hurt

Khozan has to be freshman sire of the year

[Louisvillekid1]

str i bought this at a yard sale for 25 can you see the details

I want it! What a steal!

[str]

Hey I shared in my thread

But in case you missed

So cool

I feel so close to this horse, my buddy mike came over today to watch

And just to hear Mr. Casse call him after race , is awesome for me

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...tream_Park_123

-They messed up the article

My good friend mike , still owns 20% but sold the horse to Gary Barber , didn’t purchase after. He bred the horse

The shek owned Khozan and they bred with his broodmares , but Mike always wanted to target Khozan , his sire fee going way up.

Great find , by him ... horse was 2 for 2 and got hurt

Khozan has to be freshman sire of the year

Thanks Kid.

Yes, I did miss that.

Any word on his progress from the pics you posted ?

He is hopefully about back on track but of course, no need to hurry at this point.

[JBEX]

hey str

wondering what you think of the even money favorite in R5 @ gulfstream #2 tiger blood..he's been protected in those soc25k for quite a while now and just's eats them up..looks like those race''s winners share a little under $20k..must have gotten through alw n2x sometime in the past so now they have to put him up for sale here ..realize they're not giving him away @ $62.5k but if he was 100% would you want to lose him for that price ?

[str]

hey str

wondering what you think of the even money favorite in R5 @ gulfstream #2 tiger blood..he's been protected in those soc25k for quite a while now and just's eats them up..looks like those race''s winners share a little under $20k..must have gotten through alw n2x sometime in the past so now they have to put him up for sale here ..realize they're not giving him away @ $62.5k but if he was 100% would you want to lose him for that price ?

I do not think that they want to lose him but could live with it if they did. But he loves that track and maybe they are ok with it if the meet ends soon . Just don't know Gulfstream dates. Also, will the purses stay the same if the stay open? That would be a big factor as well.Should be 60% of 47K but you are probably talking net, not gross. There is also 7k net from the Fla. Breeders fund it looks like.

Sometimes, when they ae 7 , people figure , and wrongly usually, how many does he have left in him? But you could also look at it like, he picks up 30k every time he wins there so just keep him right there.
I have to think he is real sound now, running back more often than most these days. Not much goes wrong with 7 year olds if something already hasn't. So I would say he would be claim worthy just on paper. Now if he has a scary set of wheels on him, I guess you can't do it, but I have to think someone is tempted today if that meet continues so they can stay on that exact surface which he seems to love.
Everything would need to fall just right I think but it is possible.

[Louisvillekid1]

Thanks Kid.

Yes, I did miss that.

Any word on his progress from the pics you posted ?

He is hopefully about back on track but of course, no need to hurry at this point.

Came out of the race great, and connections are still targeting the Wood,

But i keep that from them, not sure when it will run.

[JBEX]

I do not think that they want to lose him but could live with it if they did. But he loves that track and maybe they are ok with it if the meet ends soon . Just don't know Gulfstream dates. Also, will the purses stay the same if the stay open? That would be a big factor as well.Should be 60% of 47K but you are probably talking net, not gross. There is also 7k net from the Fla. Breeders fund it looks like.

Sometimes, when they ae 7 , people figure , and wrongly usually, how many does he have left in him? But you could also look at it like, he picks up 30k every time he wins there so just keep him right there.
I have to think he is real sound now, running back more often than most these days. Not much goes wrong with 7 year olds if something already hasn't. So I would say he would be claim worthy just on paper. Now if he has a scary set of wheels on him, I guess you can't do it, but I have to think someone is tempted today if that meet continues so they can stay on that exact surface which he seems to love.
Everything would need to fall just right I think but it is possible.

I was thinking of mentioning that the meeting goes till the end of september..as you said that's certainly an important consideration..I can see at that price and with a reasonable shot at notching another win why it might not be the worst risk to possibly lose him..and the breeders bonus which I didn't know about (but i'll keep in mind from here on out) sweeten's the pot a little more..you've told me how good 7yo geldings can be and here's another example. .thanks str

[str]

Came out of the race great, and connections are still targeting the Wood,

But i keep that from them, not sure when it will run.

That was the horse that got run up on behind and you posted the pictures right?

[Louisvillekid1]

I’m
Not sure which one your talking about

[str]

I’m
Not sure which one your talking about

No. It's not him.

You sent me some pictures of "biancone said ete indien lost a shoe , cut his hind leg and had a grabbed heel "