Handicapping over the next 30 days Is going to be ultra interesting ... I have to factor in these regressions coming , from barns I Suspect... could be a big month for the single digit guys
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03-11-20 06:48 AM #4061
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03-11-20 12:49 PM #4062
I do not think it is fair for me to speculate about trainers that I do not know about. The one on the bottom of your list was the exact trainer I was referring to in post 4034 when receiving better horses from superior tracks and being 3-5 and winning because they are superior to what is at that track.
Originally Posted by littlekona
I dealt with him first hand for a long time. In the words of my favorite coach of mine growing up, he is a toad. I have nothing good to say about him so I will leave it at that.
But for the others, without seeing them operate, it would not be right in my book. I also said, where there's smoke there is fire. Unless they have a way to constantly collect superior horses, nobody is always that much better without a little help from their friends. A meet? Sure. Years on end? Not IMO.
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03-11-20 12:51 PM #4063
Ain't that the truth. I doubt I would bet a favorite from a barn like what we are talking about in the next month under these circumstances. Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1
Any slumps or drop off of horses entered will be interesting.
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03-11-20 01:10 PM #4064
Headed over to play some Gulfstream , I’ll post anything I notice ... not that one day is gonna be telling ...
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03-11-20 01:37 PM #4065
No. Not this fast. But see if the scratches are up from any single trainer. That’s what you would see right away. Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1
The slumps would start in a week or two if someone was cheating. Just depends how quickly it leaves the system.
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03-11-20 01:45 PM #4066
Yeah they scratched those guys horses already
At first I thought we needed 30-60 days off from those horses and pass test but then I realized that only hurts the horses....
They are probably going to go through withdraw from those drugs as is...
I’m all about protecting the horses and doing what’s right for them... can’t love and have this much passion I do about this sport , without that...
We need a commissioner style setup like other sports do... but it’s gotta be the right person...
Our Game is so far beyond in many areas
Ask any true daily handicapper we will tell you what’s going on ...
When I get home From track , and if I can figure out to copy and paste...
The horse “H Man” past performances I want you to see, not a big name , but I remember servis turning this one into a monster then when he left barn, looked like he had zero interest in running...
From Saratoga into Belmont last meets
Maybe one of your kind followers can show you, because it’s the main one I thought of.
Typing on phone , so forgive grammar , but we know
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03-11-20 01:47 PM #4067
I don’t even like when a guy roots for a horse to break a leg jokingly during a race, I r exchanged plenty of words at the track , str you know me... I’m all about this game
That poster little Kona has been on point asking for transparency like over seas ( which I don’t really follow)
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03-11-20 01:53 PM #4068
I think it’s funny how NY HORSES which I follow the most have done so well in Florida the last few months, I get no turf racing in NY, but NYRA, will always be the first to act and our neighbors out west who knows...
There is a lot more to come out over the next few weeks...
Root my buddies horse untitled to make derby, I would love to go back to my hometown in the owners box with Mark casse ...
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03-11-20 08:30 PM #4069
This is just starting
Blackberry wine is running in MSW after 2 wins
DQ’s gonna be all the place
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03-12-20 06:57 AM #4070
Steroids typically take about 45-60 days to leave the system if I'm not mistaken. There might be trace amounts after that, not sure, but pretty sure that is the timeline. Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1
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03-12-20 07:05 AM #4071
People say stupid stuff like break a leg sometimes. Don't think they mean it but who knows. Too me, it's sign of ignorance and a lack of understanding. Unless that person is simply a jerk, if you get them around that same horse, at the barn for instance, they turn on a dime quite often and find a new appreciation for the horse, and the game. Guess you have to want to in order for that to happen. Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1
I've seen some pretty vulgar people do that and they never spoke like that again. At least not that I heard.
The game can be great. It is great. But for it to show it's great, people have to respect it. And by people I mean track owners, management, and all the people that work there. Most truly care. But not enough. Obviously.
I don't follow overseas at all, but I also agree with Kona on what he is saying about transparency.
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03-12-20 07:07 AM #4072
I'm rooting for you Kid. Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1
Sounds like that would be special.
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03-12-20 07:08 AM #4073
Where did this happen? Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1
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03-14-20 08:01 PM #4074
Won for fun today in the 5th I believe In Arkansas Originally Posted by str
By 15... and the horse was loaded , jock was fighting until the the top of stretch
Very cool race to watch , don’t see that a lot ... think went off 1/2 but still... proves the horse legit ...
And I’m all about the horse well being...
People don’t understand race horses know exactly what they doing , and want to compete...
They are some of the athletes in the world
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03-15-20 05:43 PM #4075
OK. Time out. Seems this time I have some questions.
That seems to be the starter. The footprints show he walked there and is now walking back.
Why in the hell isn't he on the inside of the rail?
The one horse is saying WTF. Ear up and looking right at him.
Is this normal ?
Seriously?
What the hell is this guy doing standing on the track?
He could get killed!
Oh My !
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03-15-20 07:28 PM #4076
Why is nobody posting in this thread ?
Best thread on the site
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03-16-20 04:41 AM #4077
A deer caught in headlights STR. and yeah LKID one of more informative threads on SBR. stay safe guys.
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03-21-20 06:45 AM #4078
While we find ourselves in the midst of this mess, and with more time on our hands than we know what to do with, I want to remind everyone to try and use some of that time to reach out to grandparents, older parents, maybe an old coach or teacher, or anyone that you can think of. Give them a call, a text, an email, anything , and check on them.
As you all know better than I do, finding contact info on someone is easier than ever these days.
Probably one of the more difficult things to deal with in this distancing we need to do right now is loneliness and nobody to talk to. I think everyone is getting at least a little stir crazy.
I know it might sound lame on the surface but people need one another. People are scared, especially older people and there are plenty of misleading headlines floating around. A chance to talk or hear someone's voice might be just what someone needs and it will no doubt make you feel better for doing it as well.
Thanks for reading this. I sure don't mean to preach but if it helps one person, it's worth suggesting it.
Stay safe everybody.
And if you play the Gulfstream contest today, good luck!
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03-21-20 06:57 AM #4079
Good words STR. Thx for posting, Stay safe.
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03-22-20 06:13 AM #4080
hey str
hope things going as well as possible for you in these crazy times
when you were training at laurel all things being equal as far as track surface speed (avg),what would be the approximate pars at 6f (boys )for a grade 1 vs bottom maiden claiming $7500 (guessing that tag for middle of your career but you can correct me)..going to take a crack at it myself factoring in the track..1:08:4 grade 1 and 1:13:2 mcl 7500..think times and spread about right there? did they run claimers n2l,n3l
n1y,n2y back in the 80's in maryland..for some reason I have memories that in ny there were more open claimers then vs the restricted ones ?
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03-22-20 09:20 AM #4081
Seems like a solid thread. Let's band together and cash some tickets before it all stops.
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03-22-20 09:24 AM #4082
just realized laurel doesn't have a grade 1 6f sprint on their schedule.. general george @ 7f and de francis memorial @ 6f both grade 3's..the former I knew off the top of my head and the latter had to look up and then remembered ..getting a little off the topic here but at a track that has grade 1 sprints would you say 4-5 secs top to bottom?
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03-22-20 11:06 AM #4083
Originally Posted by JBEX
Things are fine here so far. Thank you for asking.
Back then, several things came into play. You had 3 tracks, Laurel, Bowie, and Pimlico. (Not counting Timonium or Marlboro). They were 3 completely different surfaces. Long story short, Laurel had a lot of clay and was run during the fall. Once it got wet, it stayed wet because at the time it was built very close to the water table. Clay and wet equal 3.4's in 1:12 for the feature race and 1:15 or 16 or even worse for the cheap maidens.
Bowie was run in the summer and winter and back then they ran on a frozen track ( I mean seriously frozen. Zero cushion. Ice marks where the horses toe grabs hit.) Mid level claimers were running 1:08 and change. They only had a grade 2 in the winter and it was the Barbara Fritchie for Fillies and Mares going 7/8ths.
Pimlico ran in the spring and was on top of a hill. If you got the wind just right and it rarely had enough cushion back then no matter the elements, They could run 1:09 which was incredible because of the lack of runup.
To sort all this out, the Defrancis might have been a grade 1 for a year or two. I thought it was. At 6F. and this was early July, yes, they ran 8 and maybe some change.
The General George was always run on Washington's Birthday at Bowie in February. That race was run around 1:21 and change or 1:22 and change each year. Kind of depended on the cold at the time.
But the track record was 1:21 held from 1967 by a local allowance horse who ran on Feb. 25th 1967. I was only a kid but you can bet they could have played hockey on the track that day.
The 3/4's record was 1:08 flat held by a 10k claimer. That was Jan. of 1976. Was an asst. trainer then.
So to get to your exact question, all things being equal as best I can, a Grade 1 6F. race would have been just about 1:08 and probably 2 or 3 fifths. So lets say 1:08 3/5ths. The bottom claimer back in the 80's was still Maiden 5k I think. But the bottom is the bottom so no real difference in quality of horse from a bottom of Maiden 7500. The all things being equal number for those would have been about 1:13 3/5ths.
They did not run N/W claiming races at all until I am guessing around mid 80's. Maybe late 80's. Just after most larger tracks started doing it because of the horse crunch to fill races do to too many tracks running year round.
Back in the day, no such thing as n/w of anything except big time allowance races like n/w of a race in 6 months other than maiden, claiming, or starter races. What that did was allow a monster like Christopher R., Daves Friend, North Sea, Jameela, etc. to get a layup in for their 1st race back in the spring.
All the n/w of stuff claimers only happened out of necessity to keep horses on the grounds and fill cards. Those horses usually went to Charlestown or Penn. Nat. to win 2 or 3 more back in the day. It was kind of rare to be able to win a bottom maiden race and then be able to win an open 5k claimer. Too many hard knockers were around. It did happen, but like I said, it was rare.
Your memories are indeed accurate. NY was the same in that it was open claimers always. No N/W stuff, except for what I spoke to in big money allowance races. Never claimers. All the tracks changed around the same time period to the beaten stuff.
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03-22-20 11:08 AM #4084
Thanks. I rarely post plays mainly because I don't handicap too often. But these guys in here that post plays are pretty darn solid. I give them a ton of credit for that. Originally Posted by Capybara
Best of luck and don't hesitate to ask a question if needed.
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03-22-20 11:12 AM #4085
I would say yes. I think most tracks would have the same speed gap between the G1 and the bottom claimers. Originally Posted by JBEX
Funny thing with that is if it is a 25 length difference, we know that in a race, the gap would be much greater than 25 lengths. Just goes to show the importance of the horse and rider not getting discouraged and lessening the effort doesn't it.
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03-22-20 12:04 PM #4086
Originally Posted by str
might have asked you something like this before but if you ran a legit g1-g2 sprinter vs bottom maidens (hypothetical of course) be cool to see just how easy it is for him/her to get it done.. probably be asked more in a workout than winning that type of race
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03-22-20 01:06 PM #4087
Doing a check In. .hope all is well with you ...and family. ..gl
Double bounctious. Ha ha
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03-23-20 09:23 AM #4088
Thanks Harthebar. All is well. Originally Posted by harthebar
Stay healthy my friend.
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03-24-20 06:37 PM #4089
I'll ask a question
What is the point of a 3/8's work.
I have no clue, what to make of it...
Maybe because they want to be forwardly placed, maybe because they just don't want the horse to use any energy in the morning and still get a little workout.
It does nothing for me as a handicapper, unless like a horse who has 3 of them b2b2b, and they are just trying to get this one used to running early and be more forwardly placed, but even that's rare.
Ty
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03-25-20 08:21 AM #4090
I saw this write up and assume you are talking about this horse? Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1
#2 Fast Pass 5/2, This is just a really cool horse for any real fan. this 7 year old was a 25k purchase that has earned over 260k. Kinda just plots along and really builds up his stride, because look how they finish. I mean its not really a crazy late kick, its more of just building up and shows heart. Warrior -eske horse. 41 11 11 6 lifetime, 12 4 3 3 @ GP and 18 4 6 3 at the distance. Drops in from a graded stake where ran 5th by 4 splitting the field, can really make up ground late. Then I scroll down I see the 3/8’s work, I never know what to make of the 3/8’s work, gotta ask STR about that, because I believe its a meaningless work as it tells me nothing, unless maybe want to be more forwardly placed. Rooting for this one, and will be using.
This horse is a total pro. I don't know if the trainer has done this before but my guess would be yes, in that it is not a fitness work at all. It's simply a way to blow the pipes out a few days before the race. And, it tells the horse that it is close to race time. This would not work with a younger horse but an old pro like this horse, it is a big positive. Why? Because if the horse was not fine going into the race at that age, he wouldn't be running him. But this horse is better than fine. He is either too sharp, and that will be if this 3/8's work is not normal, or the trainer wants him on his toes after maybe not being as sharp early in his last race. It's kind of hard without seeing the form but no matter the exact reason, there is no way it is anything but positive. I just can't see HOW positive.
Is there another work on the form that matches up time wise, like 3 days before the race ( a guess) ? And if so, did the horse show slightly more early position ( adjusting for the opening 1/4 time), and win? Or just miss?
These are things that will piece the story together and give you all the info you need.
Was the work something like 37 3/5ths? Again, just a guess but that type of work is perfect for an old timer. The horse will understand, because he is a pro, that it's race day in a couple of days. More signals will come by walking the day after the short work, and maybe just a light jog or easy gallop that day before. Then, he will walk only this morning telling this old warrior that it is game day. The feed will be lighter than normal for his lunch and the hay will be pulled. That classy old horse will be focused to the max by the time they put his bridle on .All this is a build up to the hopefully solid effort today.
Please let me know if you can see this pattern in the form from races past. I will try and look around for it as well.
But let's talk about the 3/8ths work in general. To better understand that type of work let me say this. It will only be a negative in one situation. That situation is when a horse has just been claimed, or, after running every 2-3 weeks in the past, the horse has 30-40 days between races and only shows a slowish 3/8ths work. That usually spells trouble. Why? Because the horse will have needed more to stay fit after that period of time but the trainer was probably leary of putting any more pressure than that on the horse. And while that theory, or educated guess as to the horses current physical ability can never be absolute, it is correct much more often than it is not. At that point, you look for fronts on, or a bug rider or change of rider from a top rider last time to a lesser rider this time. More possible negatives.
Try and watch the horse warm up. If they don't warm up much at all, another negative. But what would ice the decision is if you knew the warm up pattern from previous races. THAT, is where doing one track becomes a big edge. But I do understand that even with that, you can only see what the camera shows unless you are standing there.
So it's things like that, that gives a player a discernible edge over others which leads over to the discussion I see alot lately about the quote of "juice will bury you". That is correct if you bet 4 tracks and spend 3-4 minutes looking at each race. But it is dead wrong if you are focused on 1 track or two and put in the required time. If you do that, as I have said a thousand times, the races are beatable, even with the takeout. And it is because you know way more than the others you are competing against. But it takes a ton of time. It's not easy.
I rarely join into those type of discussions because the right or wrong depends on the player. There is no blanket answer that fits everybody. It totally depends on the level of understanding of the game, along with the amount of time one dedicates to each day. But enough of that.
If you can let me know about those couple of questions I would appreciate it.
Go get em Kid.
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03-25-20 08:38 AM #4091
After writing the last post, I remembered how to try and find the pp's on this horse and was able to see the race from Brisnet ( Thank you JBEX and EZ ).
I will look at this race and get back in here.
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03-25-20 08:41 AM #4092
HAVE to agree that cherry picking 4 tracks is not the best way to approach the game. Yeah concentrate on 1 or 2 tracks and spend some time studying the form. BUt I do like the action so trying to limit those plays. yeah STR hopefully one day like i have stated you play some tourneys. would like to see how you fare. think you would do quite well. GL stay safe.
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03-25-20 09:02 AM #4093
yeah good deal. Originally Posted by str
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03-25-20 09:10 AM #4094
Originally Posted by str
I think it's great if you have the knowledge and the time to understand and spot a lot of the things you mentioned..but remember before the early 90's how different the pp's were..until the racing times came out the drf had slacked off for a long time..rt forced them to improve their product to compete..when I looked at the form before that it was the speed rating which was just how far off you were from the fastest time that was rin at that distance in the past 3 years I believe..then the average time off the track record for sprints and routes separated for the variant..primitive as that's greatly affected by how good the races were on that particular day..wasn't just average 86 speed rating but an 86-24 vs average 86-16..at least that's how I did it lol..point is there's a ton more (better) information if you look at the pp's now vs then..that's why I feel you can pick up pp's from anywhere and get a pretty good feel for what's up at that particular track..certainly if you have extra knowledge like you and harthebar that's even better
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03-25-20 09:14 AM #4095
yeah I would assume quite better info today on the market. ANd STR is the KING so to speak on knowledge around these parts, (and Hart is an excellent capper)but have to throw LKID1, Mr. G&T and you in the mix as well. The pace ratings are huge. imo that's probably one of the main reasons why DRF bought out Timeform. Originally Posted by JBEX
Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 03-25-20 at 09:22 AM.
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