Originally Posted by
str
I saw this write up and assume you are talking about this horse?
#2 Fast Pass 5/2, This is just a really cool horse for any real fan. this 7 year old was a 25k purchase that has earned over 260k. Kinda just plots along and really builds up his stride, because look how they finish. I mean its not really a crazy late kick, its more of just building up and shows heart. Warrior -eske horse. 41 11 11 6 lifetime, 12 4 3 3 @ GP and 18 4 6 3 at the distance. Drops in from a graded stake where ran 5th by 4 splitting the field, can really make up ground late. Then I scroll down I see the 3/8’s work, I never know what to make of the 3/8’s work, gotta ask STR about that, because I believe its a meaningless work as it tells me nothing, unless maybe want to be more forwardly placed. Rooting for this one, and will be using.
This horse is a total pro. I don't know if the trainer has done this before but my guess would be yes, in that it is not a fitness work at all. It's simply a way to blow the pipes out a few days before the race. And, it tells the horse that it is close to race time. This would not work with a younger horse but an old pro like this horse, it is a big positive. Why? Because if the horse was not fine going into the race at that age, he wouldn't be running him. But this horse is better than fine. He is either too sharp, and that will be if this 3/8's work is not normal, or the trainer wants him on his toes after maybe not being as sharp early in his last race. It's kind of hard without seeing the form but no matter the exact reason, there is no way it is anything but positive. I just can't see HOW positive.
Is there another work on the form that matches up time wise, like 3 days before the race ( a guess) ? And if so, did the horse show slightly more early position ( adjusting for the opening 1/4 time), and win? Or just miss?
These are things that will piece the story together and give you all the info you need.
Was the work something like 37 3/5ths? Again, just a guess but that type of work is perfect for an old timer. The horse will understand, because he is a pro, that it's race day in a couple of days. More signals will come by walking the day after the short work, and maybe just a light jog or easy gallop that day before. Then, he will walk only this morning telling this old warrior that it is game day. The feed will be lighter than normal for his lunch and the hay will be pulled. That classy old horse will be focused to the max by the time they put his bridle on .All this is a build up to the hopefully solid effort today.
Please let me know if you can see this pattern in the form from races past. I will try and look around for it as well.
But let's talk about the 3/8ths work in general. To better understand that type of work let me say this. It will only be a negative in one situation. That situation is when a horse has just been claimed, or, after running every 2-3 weeks in the past, the horse has 30-40 days between races and only shows a slowish 3/8ths work. That usually spells trouble. Why? Because the horse will have needed more to stay fit after that period of time but the trainer was probably leary of putting any more pressure than that on the horse. And while that theory, or educated guess as to the horses current physical ability can never be absolute, it is correct much more often than it is not. At that point, you look for fronts on, or a bug rider or change of rider from a top rider last time to a lesser rider this time. More possible negatives.
Try and watch the horse warm up. If they don't warm up much at all, another negative. But what would ice the decision is if you knew the warm up pattern from previous races. THAT, is where doing one track becomes a big edge. But I do understand that even with that, you can only see what the camera shows unless you are standing there.
So it's things like that, that gives a player a discernible edge over others which leads over to the discussion I see alot lately about the quote of "juice will bury you". That is correct if you bet 4 tracks and spend 3-4 minutes looking at each race. But it is dead wrong if you are focused on 1 track or two and put in the required time. If you do that, as I have said a thousand times, the races are beatable, even with the takeout. And it is because you know way more than the others you are competing against. But it takes a ton of time. It's not easy.
I rarely join into those type of discussions because the right or wrong depends on the player. There is no blanket answer that fits everybody. It totally depends on the level of understanding of the game, along with the amount of time one dedicates to each day. But enough of that.
If you can let me know about those couple of questions I would appreciate it.
Go get em Kid.