[mrginandtonic]

Hi Mr. GndT.
Always a pleasure to talk with you.

Q. These horses clearly don't belong in this race, hence the ML were 30-1, 50-1 and 30-1. They went off at 60-1, 77-1, 43-1. Shouldn't there be some kind of restrictions or accomplishment before you are allowed to enter?

A. Sometimes it is over zealous owners that force a trainer to run in terrible spots. And I'm not sure about this race but... was this race part of a promotion like a rainbow 6 race or whatever?

If so, and depending on the betting allowed for the race, more times than you might guess, the racing dept. will "ask" meaning put pressure on a trainer or owner, to run in a race if it needs to fill to a certain size field or if it's part of a gimmick bet. Management wants a 9 horse field and only have 5-6 horses in it. So they call the trainers and ask if they will enter. This is especially true if there is like one odds on horse and the rest are not very good. They can gently let the trainer know that the race is coming up "light" other than the 1-5 shot for instance to try and lure them into running for 2nd or 3rd for G-1 black type. Granted this happens much more often in the female division for broodmare status but I have seen it happen in all types depending on the situation.
Don't know if this is what happened here or not . Just saying that it could have.



Q. Shouldn't the trainer tell these over zealous owners the reality?

A. If it was not what I stated above, yes, the trainer should try and get the owner to be realistic. That said, that owner might have plenty more horses in the barn or on the way and the trainer has to weigh the prospects looking forward as well as the downside of running in that race.
Alot depends on the entire picture but it is sometimes tough to tell an owner no when they help put food on the trainers table and create jobs for a couple of grooms a hot walker and an exercise rider.
It can be tough to deal with for sure. If that is the case, it becomes a give and take but in the long run, it helps neither side long term. IMO, the game is tough enough when you spot to win.

Hope that helps Mr. GandT.
Keep up the good work in your thread !

Thanks you for your take as always.!! Seems to me it’s for filling the field. Seems stupid to fill a Grade 1 Race with these simply overmatched horses.

[cutchemist42]

I would have chosen B.

B) other by a $20k stallion,dam was a minor winner (not stakes) who produced 1 decent winner (no stakes) from 2 foals to race .. $300k makes no sense .


Why? Because the other one sounds like a fine opportunity but this one is obviously very very special as far as upside is concerned.

If it was a yearling it might be a different story but as a 2 year old, the horse has been broken, ridden, and probably flashed a 10 for an 1/8th or is such a superior mover and has no doubt shown several dominant traits along the way.
You don't just pay 300k for a horse that should go for far less without a long list of boxes checked along the way going back to whoever had the horse as a yearling, etc.

For those reasons, I would choose B.

Something I've never thought until seeing this post......is there a difference between buying a yearling and buying an older horse?

Do the horses at Keeneland sales then come through the ring as yearlings or as 2yos??

[JBEX]

Yes, it is an astute angle that not everyone thinks of.

The key though from there is to make sure the firster is trained by someone who wins 1st out. For instance, if Wesley Ward, Benny Perkins back in the day, Salzman family, in Md., etc. has the horse, bet with confidence. But if it was myself when I was there, or a trainer that looks to peak at race 3 or 4 and build off of the 1st race, then you have to way the odds, post, rider, trainer, probably no lasix 1st out, ( that is usually 2nd time out if they scope evidence of bleeding so they can be eligible, which these days, is rare not to.), you have to decide weighing all of that, if it has value or not.

And that is not to say that my firster or another trainer that does not go all in first out won't win, it just means that trainer A who HAS gone all in for the 1st race will have a somewhat improved horse in race 3-4 whereas my style will have a vastly improved horse in race 3-4. At least, that is the plan that some trainers choose over the all in approach that will probably , but not always include, lasix as a firster and blinkers right off the bat if that was noticed by "aggressive trainer of group A win 1st out" type trainers.

Hope that makes sense.

yes it does str.. only thing is when these types go to a todd pletcher, chad brown or ward cat's usually out of the bag..like it hidden a little more with a middle of the road trainer but only so many of those opportunities come along..but understand the trainer has a say in it also and as you pointed out some may go in not expecting a win and get one anyway.. probably even better angle to get a price is a so so effort but back in less than 3 weeks.. now the horse has a little experience, doesn't show too much and probably in good shape or he wouldn't be back so quick


chad brown had an extreme example in the first race at saratoga on Friday..2yo purchase (2yo now)..at the March ocala breeders sale.. $3500 stallion (didn't forget a zero lol), dam was a winner who had 1 winner from as many starters and the dam production index was very low so that one wasn't anything special.. $270k lot of dough for that..went off 3-2 in a 5.5f turf ..broke from the rail to the lead and pressured to the stretch call and gave it up pretty bad..just saying since I brought her up

have seen horses as low as $30k who I felt cost a lot or somewhat more than they should for the specs.. have found this to be a good angle over the long haul and usually prefer these types to the ones whose pedigree justifies the big price tag.. thanks again

[str]

Something I've never thought until seeing this post......is there a difference between buying a yearling and buying an older horse?

Do the horses at Keeneland sales then come through the ring as yearlings or as 2yos??

Q. is there a difference between buying a yearling and buying an older horse?

A. It is night and day.

Yearlings have never been ridden. Never had a saddle on.

2 year olds have learned to have a saddle and rider on their backs. They can gallop and workout . Being able to see them move across the track is a HUGE edge. Also, they are 6 -8 months older which does not seem like that much until you realize they have only been alive for about 17 months +/- when the Sept. yearling sale takes place as compared to 23-25 months as a 2 year old. That's about 25% so it is a really big deal. The prices can about double in that time period which they should being as there is so much more to scrutinize as a 2 year old. Plus, there is a getting injured factor during all the work that is performed teaching them. It is hard on those young horses. Something they have never before experienced.

Q. Do the horses at Keeneland sales then come through the ring as yearlings or as 2yos??


A. Both. There are yearling sales in Sept. That is the really big sale that attracts the best of the best . There is the Ocala March 2 year old sale , where you see tons of money and many other sales. Saratoga is probably had a yearling sale in the last few weeks.
The quality of the sale is also important to understand as 100k at Sept. yearling is no big deal but 100k at Timonium 2 year old sale is.

[str]

yes it does str.. only thing is when these types go to a todd pletcher, chad brown or ward cat's usually out of the bag..like it hidden a little more with a middle of the road trainer but only so many of those opportunities come along..but understand the trainer has a say in it also and as you pointed out some may go in not expecting a win and get one anyway.. probably even better angle to get a price is a so so effort but back in less than 3 weeks.. now the horse has a little experience, doesn't show too much and probably in good shape or he wouldn't be back so quick


chad brown had an extreme example in the first race at saratoga on Friday..2yo purchase (2yo now)..at the March ocala breeders sale.. $3500 stallion (didn't forget a zero lol), dam was a winner who had 1 winner from as many starters and the dam production index was very low so that one wasn't anything special.. $270k lot of dough for that..went off 3-2 in a 5.5f turf ..broke from the rail to the lead and pressured to the stretch call and gave it up pretty bad..just saying since I brought her up

have seen horses as low as $30k who I felt cost a lot or somewhat more than they should for the specs.. have found this to be a good angle over the long haul and usually prefer these types to the ones whose pedigree justifies the big price tag.. thanks again

While I agree with everything the part in bold is an absolute in my book.

[cutchemist42]

Q. is there a difference between buying a yearling and buying an older horse?

A. It is night and day.

Yearlings have never been ridden. Never had a saddle on.

2 year olds have learned to have a saddle and rider on their backs. They can gallop and workout . Being able to see them move across the track is a HUGE edge. Also, they are 6 -8 months older which does not seem like that much until you realize they have only been alive for about 17 months +/- when the Sept. yearling sale takes place as compared to 23-25 months as a 2 year old. That's about 25% so it is a really big deal. The prices can about double in that time period which they should being as there is so much more to scrutinize as a 2 year old. Plus, there is a getting injured factor during all the work that is performed teaching them. It is hard on those young horses. Something they have never before experienced.

Q. Do the horses at Keeneland sales then come through the ring as yearlings or as 2yos??


A. Both. There are yearling sales in Sept. That is the really big sale that attracts the best of the best . There is the Ocala March 2 year old sale , where you see tons of money and many other sales. Saratoga is probably had a yearling sale in the last few weeks.
The quality of the sale is also important to understand as 100k at Sept. yearling is no big deal but 100k at Timonium 2 year old sale is.

Thanks so much for this. I had never even thought of this before and feel almost dumb never knowing this haha.

So not sure if you listen to it, but I was listening to the latest In the Money Podcast where Jonathan Kichen was reviewing the Travers Day. They were discussing the Allen Jerkins featuring the beast horse from a few weeks ago, Shancelot, that we talked about briefly.

I can't directly post the video but it was on Saturday. https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/replays

He was of the opinion that they overrated Shancelot and when you do that, you invite off-pace horses into the race and you can see the flurry of closers this race featured. Do you see that in this race? Do you agree that overrating can possibly lead to this result?

[str]

Thanks so much for this. I had never even thought of this before and feel almost dumb never knowing this haha.

So not sure if you listen to it, but I was listening to the latest In the Money Podcast where Jonathan Kichen was reviewing the Travers Day. They were discussing the Allen Jerkins featuring the beast horse from a few weeks ago, Shancelot, that we talked about briefly.

I can't directly post the video but it was on Saturday. https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/replays

He was of the opinion that they overrated Shancelot and when you do that, you invite off-pace horses into the race and you can see the flurry of closers this race featured. Do you see that in this race? Do you agree that overrating can possibly lead to this result?

Q. He was of the opinion that they overrated Shancelot and when you do that, you invite off-pace horses into the race and you can see the flurry of closers this race featured. Do you see that in this race? Do you agree that overrating can possibly lead to this result?


A. No, I do not see what he is talking about in terms of overrating.

The horse broke a step slow rushed up to get the lead from the rail and relaxed well while not fighting the rider at all.

Maybe he sees 23.1 and thinks that is way to slow but Shancelot did not cut that fraction. He was 2 lengths behind when the timer went off so he ran more like a 22 and 4/5ths first 1/4. Then 45 and2/5ths and 1:09 flat. I have no idea what the person is seeing quite honestly. What was he supposed to do?
Seeing the charts, no horse went wire to wire all day and most races were won while closing or looping the pace setter. This horse got beat the last jump by 2 noses in 1:21 2/5ths. Further, the winner was laying a close 3rd the entire way . That was not a real closer was it?

So I will agree to totally disagree with that analysis.

Q. Do you agree that overrating can possibly lead to this result?

A. It all has to do with whether or not the horse being rated is benefitting from it or fighting it. If they fight it, you might as well just let them go because they are burning the same amount of energy either way. But if they relax and truly get a breather, it is the right thing to do.

Honestly, that comment sounds like someone was fishing for an excuse. I did not see it that way and the rail was not the best part of the track that day IMO. The horse got nosed at the wire. The only thing I could say that might have helped is if the rider had gone left handed at some point. But I do not know if the horse ducks from that or sulks from that or who knows what else. Maybe there was a reason for it, or maybe not. Also, can't say I am a fan of whoever that rider is. Does that rider ride at Saratoga daily? Didn't look like it from that one race which can be very unfair. But...He hit the horse 14 times right handed . What was that? IMO, the last 7-8 strikes were a total waste of time. The horse got nothing out of those.

[Louisvillekid1]

No that rider does not

He’s navarro’s Boy down in Florida

I have no clue what goes on in that barn

He is the “miracle trainer”

[str]

No that rider does not

He’s navarro’s Boy down in Florida

I have no clue what goes on in that barn

He is the “miracle trainer”

He is probably ok down there as long as the big boys are up north but he looked a little over his head riding against the best in the business. That Saratoga horse wins with a solid rider that rides there every day. Not that he over rated or anything like that. Just not as talented as some of those guys. Hope that makes sense.

Like watching college on Saturday and pros on Sunday Kid.

Not sure what to make of Navarro. They HAVE to be all over the guy. If he's cheating they will catch him but at what cost right? Usually guys cheat, make the money, get the clients, and stop when they have a barn full.

I used to get so pissed at that when I saw it I wanted to explode. Kind of did a couple of times. But the last one was pretty bad. It was to all the Stewards up in their stand at Timonium. I went nuts. One of them was a pretty close friend at the time too. Told them if they won't stop it, I'm out. Nine months later, I left. No regrets.

[Louisvillekid1]

Makes complete sense

Wow

I’m sure you got some great stories

Betting football this year?

Actually not sure if I asked , did you ever / do you ever play the ponies anymore after retiring?

[str]

Makes complete sense

Wow

I’m sure you got some great stories

Betting football this year?

Actually not sure if I asked , did you ever / do you ever play the ponies anymore after retiring?

Have a ton of stories from Secretariat, Spectacular Bid , John Henry and down to a cheap maiden. Happy to share although some are already in this thread.

I follow the NFL a lot. Dabble in college.

For the most part I do not follow the horses anymore. I play in the SBR tournaments which gets me interested but have to pick all races before the 1st race. I probably only actually handicap 3-4 races on the card. No form usually. Use the program, and try and go by who I know and what I see from the posts, riders, trainers, equipt. changes and just wing it.

I try to go to Laurel or CharlesTown for the Breeders Cup or Triple Crown but lately only made one or two of the events. Mainly to see my high school buddies that I used to cut class with in high school and go to the races with. More talking than handicapping but we bet and laugh. That's a hell of a daily double IMO.

[JBEX]

hey str

remember you mentioned some association with patrick mcburney I believe.. in R7 (2yo nyb msw) he has a horse that shipped here for his debut on 8/7 and ran a decent race.. back up here for start 2 today and brings paco lopez along again.. been training at mth before and between races.. he's my choice.. #8 saratoga beauty (9-2) even the name lol

[str]

hey str

remember you mentioned some association with patrick mcburney I believe.. in R7 (2yo nyb msw) he has a horse that shipped here for his debut on 8/7 and ran a decent race.. back up here for start 2 today and brings paco lopez along again.. been training at mth before and between races.. he's my choice.. #8 saratoga beauty (9-2) even the name lol

Pat has been stabled in NJ for many years. I knew him from the Tammaro/Forbes stable he learned under. They were right next to use when I was an asst. trainer at Bowie. 1974-5. Ouch! We used to borrow stuff on the fly when we were prepping horses to walk over to run in a race sometimes. Real nice guy. Very quiet and soft spoken. Solid horseman who definitely knows what he is doing. Hope he and you win.

[JBEX]

hey str

lacey has one going in saratoga R6 (last day of the meet as you probably know).. debut horse, very modest pedigree, homebred and this is an open msw with a deep field of expensive, extremely well bred horses (2yo colt) .. intrigued she would try a field like this..top it off irad rides.. going to probably be an off track more than likely.. thought you'd be interested #5 runaway star (10-1) love the name !!

last work 4f at laurel on 8/26

[str]

hey str

lacey has one going in saratoga R6 (last day of the meet as you probably know).. debut horse, very modest pedigree, homebred and this is an open msw with a deep field of expensive, extremely well bred horses (2yo colt) .. intrigued she would try a field like this..top it off irad rides.. going to probably be an off track more than likely.. thought you'd be interested #5 runaway star (10-1) love the name !!

last work 4f at laurel on 8/26

Thanks for the heads up JBEX.

The only reason that comes to mind as to why she would do this is winning in Md. is a given and she is convinced the horse deserves a shot against top notch potential.

That said, as I have said before, they are never shy to ship to NY with a baby. It's in their blood. And I say that with nothing but good thoughts.

They must have a pretty convincing story to have landed Irad. I have to think the money will show on this one, typically early from that barn and then possibly drift up but with Irad, maybe not.
FTL for their FTS is typical as well.
I doubt mud will be a problem if it comes up. At that point, it's usually all about the break. I see City Zip and Kissen Kris and will assume Kris S behind her . If so that bloodline should help out with an off track quite a bit.

Those gate works are all slower than the off the pole works. That makes sense as well.
Homebred owner I have not heard of PA bred. Interesting !
Be surprised if you see 10-1 on this one.

Sure hope she runs well.

Thanks again !

[JBEX]

Thanks for the heads up JBEX.

The only reason that comes to mind as to why she would do this is winning in Md. is a given and she is convinced the horse deserves a shot against top notch potential.

That said, as I have said before, they are never shy to ship to NY with a baby. It's in their blood. And I say that with nothing but good thoughts.

They must have a pretty convincing story to have landed Irad. I have to think the money will show on this one, typically early from that barn and then possibly drift up but with Irad, maybe not.
FTL for their FTS is typical as well.
I doubt mud will be a problem if it comes up. At that point, it's usually all about the break. I see City Zip and Kissen Kris and will assume Kris S behind her . If so that bloodline should help out with an off track quite a bit.

Those gate works are all slower than the off the pole works. That makes sense as well.
Homebred owner I have not heard of PA bred. Interesting !
Be surprised if you see 10-1 on this one.

Sure hope she runs well.

Thanks again !

np str... unfortunately scratched but have to keep an eye out for him.. if he runs at lrl that'd be great information to know (was entered at saratoga) although probably be bet heavier there.. better off trying belmont as that is a killer field today.. be some good ones coming out of this race for sure

[JBEX]

parx has some nice purses for statebreds so maybe there in the fall.. possibly bonus for winning in open company but not sure

[str]

np str... unfortunately scratched but have to keep an eye out for him.. if he runs at lrl that'd be great information to know (was entered at saratoga) although probably be bet heavier there.. better off trying belmont as that is a killer field today.. be some good ones coming out of this race for sure

Scratched is odd. That is not their style at all.

Irad with no mount. This was not the plan.

If coughing or a fever, you might not see him for close to a month.

That would make sense.

If he is entered in a week, that is even more odd.

[JBEX]

Scratched is odd. That is not their style at all.

Irad with no mount. This was not the plan.

If coughing or a fever, you might not see him for close to a month.

That would make sense.

If he is entered in a week, that is even more odd.

sick makes sense.. too bad.. you think the positive name might shed some light on their feeling about him.. I've always felt that way??

[Louisvillekid1]

When you see this


Previously trained by Baffert Bob (as of 08/10/2019): (187 40-50-28 21%)
10Aug19Dmr ̄ 6f ft :22 :45 ̈ :57« 1:11 ̈ ̈ ̈* BestPal-G2 ̈ ̈« 96 103/ 73




Horse switches barns outside of a claiming race , what happened?

[JBEX]

When you see this


Previously trained by Baffert Bob (as of 08/10/2019): (187 40-50-28 21%)
10Aug19Dmr ̄ 6f ft :22 :45 ̈ :57« 1:11 ̈ ̈ ̈* BestPal-G2 ̈ ̈« 96 103/ 73




Horse switches barns outside of a claiming race , what happened?

what horse is that lkid ? (if it's going today)

[Louisvillekid1]

Its the #7 WERE STILL HERE in race 3 thursday at kentucky downs

[JBEX]

Its the #7 WERE STILL HERE in race 3 thursday at kentucky downs

not sure if that means that he's going to stay with brisset after that race or just with him for that race

[JBEX]

could be new ownership also

[JBEX]

my guess the former..expensive ky bred who they want to campaign in the east for the fall

[JBEX]

sick makes sense.. too bad.. you think the positive name might shed some light on their feeling about him.. I've always felt that way??

think the fact that the sire's name is "run away and hide" dispels that notion..the sire did however win 1st out as a 2yo breaking from the 12 post at keeneland

[str]

When you see this


Previously trained by Baffert Bob (as of 08/10/2019): (187 40-50-28 21%)
10Aug19Dmr ̄ 6f ft :22 :45 ̈ :57« 1:11 ̈ ̈ ̈* BestPal-G2 ̈ ̈« 96 103/ 73




Horse switches barns outside of a claiming race , what happened?

As long as the owner stayed the same, it is simply a trainer switch. In this case, probably the owner wanted to run at this short meet and Baffert could not accommodate the man power needed so they sent the horse to a trainer in Ky. When that happens, as long as the horse will eventually go back to Baffert, it can be a friend or someone that either the trainer or owner knows.

If the horse does not go back, it was a decision made by the owner that actually happens more than you would think. There can be a variety of reasons for that. Happy to name them but they are plentiful and I would be simply speculating.

So what can you do with this info? Well, it tells you that the horse has been pointed towards a certain race for some time and should be in peak condition to run its best race.

That is what I would take from that.
Did the horse work there? Typically, this plan would have been in the works for a month or 2 so the horse would have caught a flight a ways back maybe 2-4 weeks ago?, and had a chance to acclimate. If so, that just shows you that indeed the preparation for this race has taken place for a while .That is usually a good thing.

[str]

think the fact that the sire's name is "run away and hide" dispels that notion..the sire did however win 1st out as a 2yo breaking from the 12 post at keeneland

Sounds like a horse that they knew was really fast before they named it or by a real fast sire and dam. My guess would be a horse they bought in Ocala March 2 year old sale ?

[JBEX]

Sounds like a horse that they knew was really fast before they named it or by a real fast sire and dam. My guess would be a horse they bought in Ocala March 2 year old sale ?

lacey's horse is a homebred (PA).. ironically the dam's only stakes win was a listed stakes at the ocala breeders sale

[Louisvillekid1]

Thanks STR as always

[littlekona]

did anyone see the Delmar Futurity yesterday...Crazy!! I had the damn Baffert singled in pick 5....Ron Ellis said on TVG it looked like the Baffert Colt was spooked by the Grey horse and that some young horses are afriad of greys....

Replay

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3e2e...Y#action=share

[Louisvillekid1]

Yeah I saw it

had a 2,3,7 box

just missed 35/1 over 35/1

[str]

did anyone see the Delmar Futurity yesterday...Crazy!! I had the damn Baffert singled in pick 5....Ron Ellis said on TVG it looked like the Baffert Colt was spooked by the Grey horse and that some young horses are afriad of greys....

Replay

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3e2e...Y#action=share

These days, they cut out the moments leading up to and during any spill, so watching the video only helps so much. But, it is clear that the 2 horse does not have running on his mind from the moment the gates open. He was looking to his right and shying early and my best guess without seeing it happen is that the area when a chute ties into the main course, which is always a concern of riders on the inside in races out of a chute or even in the morning if they were in the chute doing gate work, is that the horse tried to make a left when the opportunity presented itself.

That is not all that uncommon for young horses to try and do. That is why tracks usually have an extended portable rail that helps close the left turn area but never fully. I could not see if it was used in this case or not. Have to guess it was. But when you add to it that the horse was preoccupied with either the horse next to him or certainly something to his right and worst of all, thinking on their own, thus being out of his comfort zone which is to be controlled by the rider, bad decisions typically happen.

I cannot say that it was the grey horse that caused that. Yes, it has happened before but only a very small % of horses are bothered by that. Such a small % in fact, that it is true but pretty rare from my experience. But... Ron is right in that it does happen, just not very often.

Indeed there was definitely something to his right that he was shying early from and once he lost his mental handle on things, as most do, he made a dumb decision to try an make a left.

Tough way to lose a bet. Sorry about that.

[JBEX]

hey str


mark casse has a 3yo fts that was an $825k fasig tipton yearling purchase in R2 @ woodbine tonight.. he worked the horse regularly last year at kee after the spring meet from late april till early june (6 to be exact).. then we don't see her again till today with 4 works leading up to this race.. do you think this was a serious problem to put her on the shelf this long?? think the fact they're trying her at woodbine vs keeneland next month is a sign something might be amiss??
woodbine purses are on par with keeneland (and of course woodbine poly) but big gap prestige wise.. have to think she'd be shooting for keeneland if all was right with this one.. understand there's a lot of speculation with stuff like this

[cutchemist42]

hey str


mark casse has a 3yo fts that was an $825k fasig tipton yearling purchase in R2 @ woodbine tonight.. he worked the horse regularly last year at kee after the spring meet from late april till early june (6 to be exact).. then we don't see her again till today with 4 works leading up to this race.. do you think this was a serious problem to put her on the shelf this long?? think the fact they're trying her at woodbine vs keeneland next month is a sign something might be amiss??
woodbine purses are on par with keeneland (and of course woodbine poly) but big gap prestige wise.. have to think she'd be shooting for keeneland if all was right with this one.. understand there's a lot of speculation with stuff like this

I'm wondering if you meant Royal Mandate in the WO3 as I was literally coming to ask in general what happens with big purchases that debut late because of this horse.

Went off as 6/5 face but didnt show much.....the winner was a logical winner....3rd start with first 2 being competitive on turf twice.