Originally Posted by
str
Yes, I do believe in speed figures. But, I do not use any of them. I do like the Timeform US. pace projections. They make perfect sense to me.
Because I just don't handicap much anymore, and because Beyers and the Rag sheets were all that were around to my knowledge back in my day, and neither were around in my early years of training and obviously not around when I was capping regularly, I did scrutinize those two. I just never saw how either of those found more winners than handicapping any other way. For me, they just never proved to be a tool I felt improved my abilities. It seemed to me to always point to the favorites. But that's just me.
I have never tried or examined the process of those other figs. I have to assume that they are anywhere from decent to pretty darn good.
As for my major criteria, I used times, lengths off, who the rider was, replays, and in my case because I actually saw almost every race run in Md., and believe it or not, the old track variant. Apparently they have changed the variant now so I don't look at that much anymore. But back before Beyers, and even when they started, the variant was Great when used the way a buddy of mine from school and I figured out. Now that I think about it, I guess they were OUR set of figures.
You could look at days of the week at a place like Md. or C.T. and constantly find very solid price horses. How? On Tuesdays or mid week cards, the horses were almost always bottom to mid level claimers. The good horses ran on Friday and Saturday and Holidays. ( Pretty much, but not entirely).
So if you found a horse that ran a number on a Tuesday or Wed. that was real close, equal to or better than a horse that ran on a Friday or Saturday, you had a solid mid price to longshot. Not only was the track playing seemingly slow in mid week races due to the quality of the fields but the maintenance crew rarely souped the track up until weekends and especially Saturdays and Holidays. They loved fast times for good horses. It made fans happy. So you can see that a Tuesday or Wednesday horse on a slower surface and with a slower rated track due to slower horses throughout the card, that could have the same numbers as the horse that ran on a Friday or Saturday on the faster track with better horses would be a stand out. Honestly, we killed it doing that for years until biases became a household word. That was 70's and early 80's. It was almost like a dream sometimes when we could cash out on a price horse. It was really something Easy.
I do not know if that equates today or not. There is much more scrutiny towards the surface these days. There was zero scrutiny by the players back then.
Our focus was Md. but more so C.T. Sometimes it felt like we had tomorrow's paper with the results today. A dream we have all had. Lol.
Today I just look at what the form offers, rarely the comments, mostly times, post positions ,lengths back, race set up, like speeds, stalkers, closers, and who ran against whom kind of stuff. A few replays if needed for the big races. And of course, trainers tactics which is where I guess I have quite an edge. They jump right off the page for me sometimes.
That's about it. But heck, I'm a dinosaur and only play 3 or 4 times a year. I could not get away with that if I played more often. The players have gotten much better. I am pretty sure they have run right by me. And I'm ok with that because I am a casual fan these days. Heck, I get almost all my racing info day to day from you guys.
If I ever got back into handicapping daily, I would have to find something more for sure. I just don't know which one it would be.
Thanks for asking Easy. Keep up the good work !