[str]

is justify going to win the triple crown? I already know the answer just seeing what you know.

Q. is justify going to win the triple crown? I already know the answer just seeing what you know.

A. As for what I know, I still learn something new just about everyday.

As for what I think ? IMO the post draw will mean very little to most but a whole lot to Justify. He has had three straight garden trips. If he draws the inside he must clear, slow down , which he has never done before and last. Things will have to be perfect for him to win in more ways than just that.


Justify's ongoing foot problems make this far different than managing American Pharoah through his triple crown. They can flare up in a minute, with no prior warning.
And having managed plenty of those feet, it's no easy feat, no pun intended (well maybe a little).

Those hoof injuries can really suck. Just ask Big Brown.

People are very sure on both sides of the win or lose discussion so far from all I have seen and heard. Strong opinions everywhere. Not me. Without knowing all the facts I can't take a side in that debate yet. Much more to see IMO.

This game will humble anybody. Spent too many years in it. If asked on Belmont day for a pick I will post it. But until then any opinion from me would be premature.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I will be asking you about your opinion on Belmont day. Appreciate the insight.

[str]

I will be asking you about your opinion on Belmont day. Appreciate the insight.

We have to keep an eye on his foot Easy. And I want to play against obviously for a bombs away payoff. Time will tell and I will post something that day and sooner with any updated info I hear.

[Easy-Rider 66]

We have to keep an eye on his foot Easy. And I want to play against obviously for a bombs away payoff. Time will tell and I will post something that day and sooner with any updated info I hear.

Sounds good.

[jtoler]

Q. is justify going to win the triple crown? I already know the answer just seeing what you know.

A. As for what I know, I still learn something new just about everyday.

As for what I think ? IMO the post draw will mean very little to most but a whole lot to Justify. He has had three straight garden trips. If he draws the inside he must clear, slow down , which he has never done before and last. Things will have to be perfect for him to win in more ways than just that.


Justify's ongoing foot problems make this far different than managing American Pharoah through his triple crown. They can flare up in a minute, with no prior warning.
And having managed plenty of those feet, it's no easy feat, no pun intended (well maybe a little).

Those hoof injuries can really suck. Just ask Big Brown.

People are very sure on both sides of the win or lose discussion so far from all I have seen and heard. Strong opinions everywhere. Not me. Without knowing all the facts I can't take a side in that debate yet. Much more to see IMO.

This game will humble anybody. Spent too many years in it. If asked on Belmont day for a pick I will post it. But until then any opinion from me would be premature.

thanks for the reply sir I appreciate it.

[str]

thanks for the reply sir I appreciate it.

My pleasure.
Feel free to join in here anytime.
And please let us know who you like in the Belmont come race day.
Best of luck.

[JBEX]

you think coming to the belmont off 2 sloppy track first
legs might be a disadvantage more so than if he had gotten it done on good or better tracks ?? that's assuming of course that it's fast on belmont day which might be asking a lot of the weather gods

[str]

you think coming to the belmont off 2 sloppy track first
legs might be a disadvantage more so than if he had gotten it done on good or better tracks ?? that's assuming of course that it's fast on belmont day which might be asking a lot of the weather gods

No way of knowing for sure JBEX. Had he won at Churchill on a dry track it would seem reasonable to think it would have been a better indicator about running on Big Sandy next week. But Pimlico's surface is usually harder and with less cushion (and always has been) than most so the Derby would be what you would try and equate surface wise.
Not sure it is a disadvantage but can't see how it is any kind of advantage.

On another note:How did the maiden run?

[JBEX]

No way of knowing for sure JBEX. Had he won at Churchill on a dry track it would seem reasonable to think it would have been a better indicator about running on Big Sandy next week. But Pimlico's surface is usually harder and with less cushion (and always has been) than most so the Derby would be what you would try and equate surface wise.
Not sure it is a disadvantage but can't see how it is any kind of advantage.

On another note:How did the maiden run?

was within 2 lengths to the 6f mark then folded up completely and finished last.. went off @ 23-1

[str]

was within 2 lengths to the 6f mark then folded up completely and finished last.. went off @ 23-1

Maybe bled. Other than that, probably outrun. Was the horse on lasix? Without a serious drop the only way I consider playing that one is 1st time L next out. Sound right?

[JBEX]

Maybe bled. Other than that, probably outrun. Was the horse on lasix? Without a serious drop the only way I consider playing that one is 1st time L next out. Sound right?

I made a mistake as she actually faltered @ the 4f mark
so that really was a bad effort..she was on lasix in both of her starts.. they have sb mdn clm 25k for dirt races and that's as low as it goes.. have a hunch a ride up the thruway to finger lakes might be in her future

[str]

I made a mistake as she actually faltered @ the 4f mark
so that really was a bad effort..she was on lasix in both of her starts.. they have sb mdn clm 25k for dirt races and that's as low as it goes.. have a hunch a ride up the thruway to finger lakes might be in her future

Might be OK for the 25k races but going to Finger Lakes makes sense. Maybe they have some state bred purses there if she is NY bred.

[JBEX]

Might be OK for the 25k races but going to Finger Lakes makes sense. Maybe they have some state bred purses there if she is NY bred.

they have state bred msw and allowance races up there.. think the drop off in purses from a sb mcl 25k @ belmont to a sb msw @ finger lakes is probably about 40% off the top of my head..have to think that's a pretty serious drop off in competition

[str]

they have state bred msw and allowance races up there.. think the drop off in purses from a sb mcl 25k @ belmont to a sb msw @ finger lakes is probably about 40% off the top of my head..have to think that's a pretty serious drop off in competition

Seems like run her for a quarter at Belmont and if she doesn't run real well, send her to Finger Lakes. Probably wins two allowances races for state breds there as well.

[JBEX]

Seems like run her for a quarter at Belmont and if she doesn't run real well, send her to Finger Lakes. Probably wins two allowances races for state breds there as well.

yeah probably what they'll do...she's by a 5k stallion out of a winning dam and she's the first foal to race.. winning a nyb mcl race downstate was probably at the higher end of the spectrum of what they thought she'd do

[StackinGreen]

My pleasure.
Feel free to join in here anytime.
And please let us know who you like in the Belmont come race day.
Best of luck.

This guy is one of the main instigators around here, always causing distraction from the topics at hand.

I challenge him to let you know who he likes, since

Q. is justify going to win the triple crown? I already know the answer just seeing what you know.

Guy never makes a pick. Just trolls others.

[StackinGreen]

str,

What do you think about Hofburg being bred for the distance and ready to run, but not having won a Graded race here moving on to Belmont? Obviously like any other this game is about price and your shot, and I like some things about him but something tells me the odds will be far too low at least for the WPS pools.

[str]

str,

What do you think about Hofburg being bred for the distance and ready to run, but not having won a Graded race here moving on to Belmont? Obviously like any other this game is about price and your shot, and I like some things about him but something tells me the odds will be far too low at least for the WPS pools.

The not having won a graded Stake yet does not bother me that much especially with this race being such a unique distance. I liked his chances in the Derby and would have to think he would have about the same chances in here. Problem is , he was 27-1 in the Derby and ran decently and he will be something like 4-1,5-1 here? Not sure of the prices yet but that takes a real bite out of the enthusiasm for me.
I think you are right on track with your assessment of him. Need to wait and see about prices and see where he can be used .
I really want to see the form once the draw comes out.


Good to know on the other comment. I appreciate that and will keep that in mind.

[StackinGreen]

I'm getting a little excited only because I think Justify runs 2nd or 3rd and I'll be in the pick 5, certainly pick 4 and possibly pick 6.

If I like the card it might be a very fun day. When Tonalist did I had the pick 4 (they didn't have a pick 5 at that time). The pick 5 in NYRA ending in the main race (Belmont Stakes) is now only offered to intra-state players though, which sorta sucks.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: Justify drew the 1 Hole. Interested to get your take on the race.

[StackinGreen]

Hey STR: Justify drew the 1 Hole. Interested to get your take on the race.

I love it when a plan comes together. Cue str ...

[str]

Hey STR: Justify drew the 1 Hole. Interested to get your take on the race.

Here is what I said about a week ago.

"As for what I think ? IMO the post draw will mean very little to most but a whole lot to Justify. He has had three straight garden trips. If he draws the inside he must clear, slow down , which he has never done before and last. Things will have to be perfect for him to win in more ways than just that. "


Nothing has changed from that. He draws the 1 post and he has Noble Indy outside of him. Noble Indy and Vino Rosso are owned by the same person whose last name is Repole. He is a New Yorker through and through. He has stated that he wants the Belmont badly. He has also stated that Noble Indy WILL be on the lead. That is interesting but comes with a problem. If Noble Indy pushes to get the lead , he and Justify will be clear of the field around the first turn in all probability. If Noble Indy allows Justify to pull back and immediately get outside Justify will be back in that garden spot we have talked about. IMO the key to all of this is exactly what I have talked about for years in here. Noble Indy needs to pin him, be a head or neck in front, make Justify feel claustrophobic, get in Justify's right eye, and make him use energy to move forward to get out of that spot or sit there and have to deal with it.
Once I get the form, I will look through it and see what I can come up with. But it should be no surprise that I will be trying to beat Justify in exotics. We all know that he is the best horse. And it is not even close. But he will need to face enough hurdles, with post, a different track, his foot, a mile and a half, possible pinned, form regression IMO, etc. that the value for me will be in trying to play around him and look for a sizeable payoff.
The forecast is for possible showers that day . Let's hope not. That would dampen the hopes of some of the other starters and possibly make the track favor speed which helps Justify. Time will tell with the weather.
I am seeing an opportunity to hit a big number in this race. Might not happen but only three post time favorites have won the Belmont in the last 20 years. Seven of the last eight odds on favorites have lost and only one favorite has been part of the exacta in the last ten years.
My friend and I banged this race in 2013 and we will try and do it again this year. You don't have to hit many when they pay box car numbers.
If there was ever a race that is worth taking a shot on for big payouts, it's this one. Especially when a 3-5 shot is bidding for a triple crown win. With it's past history of payoffs and all that I have said in this post, it's a no brainer for me.
More as we get closer. Any questions, fire away.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Noble Indy has the speed to set or push the pace in theBelmont Stakes, and if he applies pressure to Justify during the secondhalf-mile, he could potentially make things tricky for the Triple Crownaspirant. But the question is this—will Noble Indy use his speed? Noble Indy isowned in partnership by WinStar Farm (the majority owner of Justify) and RepoleStable (who owns a share of Vino Rosso), which could make things tricky from atactical perspective. If Noble Indy goes out fast, it could benefit Vino Rossowhile putting Justify at a disadvantage; if Noble Indy takes back, he won't bedoing Vino Rosso any favors while conceding the advantage to Justify.The way I see it, this actually leaves the strategy forNoble Indy relatively clear. Three of his four best efforts, including hisLouisiana Derby victory, came when Noble Indy tracked the pace, so unless hedraws an inside post and is forced to commit to the lead, I expect to see NobleIndy settle close to the pace in the Belmont Stakes without getting aggressivein battling for the lead. This strategy would be in line with Noble Indy'sestablished running style and could give him every chance to win or hit theboard without particularly compromising either of his stablemates.

From Part of Blood horse article.

I posted this JBEX's thread. Noble Indy is also partly owned by WInstar which is Justify's majority owner. So I wonder if they employ the tactics you speak of? Will be interesting. Thx for early take.

[MadTiger]

The ownership relationships remind me of NASCAR, and teammates doing "favors" for one another by pacing, blocking, etc.

[str]

It is hard for me to believe that every trainer in the race will allow Justify to walk the dog on a clear lead.

That is as close to handing him the race as it can get.

[JBEX]

It is hard for me to believe that every trainer in the race will allow Justify to walk the dog on a clear lead.

That is as close to handing him the race as it can get.

noble indy appears on paper to be the only one who can stay with him.. I think free drop billy is going to be closer than usual but not sure he wants or is capable of hooking
up with him early.. maybe justify let's noble Indy get the lead and then hounds him from the outside.. at least that doesn't look bad to the public although not ideal for mike repole

[StackinGreen]

Here is what I said about a week ago.

"As for what I think ? IMO the post draw will mean very little to most but a whole lot to Justify. He has had three straight garden trips. If he draws the inside he must clear, slow down , which he has never done before and last. Things will have to be perfect for him to win in more ways than just that. "


Nothing has changed from that. He draws the 1 post and he has Noble Indy outside of him. Noble Indy and Vino Rosso are owned by the same person whose last name is Repole. He is a New Yorker through and through. He has stated that he wants the Belmont badly. He has also stated that Noble Indy WILL be on the lead. That is interesting but comes with a problem. If Noble Indy pushes to get the lead , he and Justify will be clear of the field around the first turn in all probability. If Noble Indy allows Justify to pull back and immediately get outside Justify will be back in that garden spot we have talked about. IMO the key to all of this is exactly what I have talked about for years in here. Noble Indy needs to pin him, be a head or neck in front, make Justify feel claustrophobic, get in Justify's right eye, and make him use energy to move forward to get out of that spot or sit there and have to deal with it.
Once I get the form, I will look through it and see what I can come up with. But it should be no surprise that I will be trying to beat Justify in exotics. We all know that he is the best horse. And it is not even close. But he will need to face enough hurdles, with post, a different track, his foot, a mile and a half, possible pinned, form regression IMO, etc. that the value for me will be in trying to play around him and look for a sizeable payoff.
The forecast is for possible showers that day . Let's hope not. That would dampen the hopes of some of the other starters and possibly make the track favor speed which helps Justify. Time will tell with the weather.
I am seeing an opportunity to hit a big number in this race. Might not happen but only three post time favorites have won the Belmont in the last 20 years. Seven of the last eight odds on favorites have lost and only one favorite has been part of the exacta in the last ten years.
My friend and I banged this race in 2013 and we will try and do it again this year. You don't have to hit many when they pay box car numbers.
If there was ever a race that is worth taking a shot on for big payouts, it's this one. Especially when a 3-5 shot is bidding for a triple crown win. With it's past history of payoffs and all that I have said in this post, it's a no brainer for me.
More as we get closer. Any questions, fire away.

I totally agree, and I'll be doing that, both on my horizontal and vertical wagers.

Here's to a nice payout (I had Tonalist a few years back)

[StackinGreen]

It is hard for me to believe that every trainer in the race will allow Justify to walk the dog on a clear lead.

That is as close to handing him the race as it can get.

Let me also add that while this race can provoke out of the money finishes occasionally, some of the easiest scores I've ever made have been superior horses that are neglected in the other pools. I studied and utilized Ziemba's system of pool inefficiencies for years combined with my own handicapping. Don't take my word for it, just look at the Preakness payouts and you should know exactly what I'm talking about.

Like they say (and in the movie Rounders), if you don't know what I'm referring to after reading that, you're the sucker.

The quote was "If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker."

The origin of the quote is unknown, but is in the lore of gambling, whatever the game.

[str]

noble indy appears on paper to be the only one who can stay with him.. I think free drop billy is going to be closer than usual but not sure he wants or is capable of hooking
up with him early.. maybe justify let's noble Indy get the lead and then hounds him from the outside.. at least that doesn't look bad to the public although not ideal for mike repole

Yeah, I hear you JBEX.

The looks bad to the public thing bothers me though. And I know it is not your stance but indeed the public's stance.

When I trained, having a rabbit challenge the speed and best horse in the race was totally accepted and fine. Heck, I did it with 10k claimers going long more than once to say nothing of allowance races, handicaps or stakes.

But nowadays the public wants to frown upon it. That blows my mind. And where is the line drawn between using a rabbit and double or triple teaming the best player in a game. Or blitzing the QB because the OL is banged up. All of these scenarios are to try and exploit a weakness during competition. So is loosening up a far superior speed horse with an early speed rabbit isn't it?

They sent Sham with the express purpose of beating Secretariat. They went 109:4/5ths for the first 3/4's of the Belmont. We all know how that worked out but it was perfectly acceptable in 1973. But if they use Noble Indy that way, or the way I described it in my earlier post, twitter will explode. Too me, that's insane.
Like Herm Edwards said, you play to win the game.
Now don't get me wrong, you don't run Justify into the fence or try anything malicious whatsoever like Cordero and company did to Spectacular Bid in Florida before the Derby or what Cordaro did to Genuine Risk on the Wayne Lukas trained Codex in the Preakness in 1980 . That mugging of both Bid in Fla. and the filly in the Preakness was frowned upon but that is not the same as simply running a rabbit in the race IMO.

As I said, you pin him, get in his eye and try to make him expend energy early on. If he wins after that, he truly is a champion. But if he loses, Noble Indy shouldn't be any more of a villain than Justify was in the Preakness when he did the exact same thing to Good Magic. But the public had sentiment for Justify so they didn't notice that but you can bet that Chad Brown did. And I would think that if Brown had a chance with Good Magic to repay the favor in the Belmont, he would do it in a second.

If they allow Noble Indy to clear and let Justify get outside and stalk by himself with no outside pressure, they are spitting in the wind. The only thing that will beat Justify in that scenario is the distance or Justify himself. Having a horse to run at around the far turn with a garden trip would be perfect for Mike Smith and Justify just like it was in the last two races.

I guess I am just frustrated because I am hopeful that he gets pinned and it opens up a large payoff. Either way, I will play to beat Justify. And yes, he is tons the best. But the best horse doesn't always win, especially in the Belmont.

I will be interested to see your picks along with Easy's, Mr. Gand T's and others. I know Stackin is getting all revved up.
It has a chance to be a fun day.

[str]

Let me also add that while this race can provoke out of the money finishes occasionally, some of the easiest scores I've ever made have been superior horses that are neglected in the other pools. I studied and utilized Ziemba's system of pool inefficiencies for years combined with my own handicapping. Don't take my word for it, just look at the Preakness payouts and you should know exactly what I'm talking about.

Like they say (and in the movie Rounders), if you don't know what I'm referring to after reading that, you're the sucker.

The quote was "If you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker."

The origin of the quote is unknown, but is in the lore of gambling, whatever the game.

Very true Stackin. I've seen that quote and it doesn't get any better or truer than that.

[JBEX]

on the belmont i just think it's one of those unusual situations of a horse with a chance to win the triple crown
and the owner has a part interest in another whose strategy could foil his bid to do it.. just one of those things
and nothing you can do about it.. one thing I will say though is justify has consistently run big pace figures
whereas noble Indy has only done it once in the louisiana derby.. just have a hunch that even if noble Indy is pressing him from the outside justify might be able to withstand it even though ideally that's not where he wants to be

on another note army mule won't be running in the met mile which was his target race

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...consideration/

[StackinGreen]

I support the anti-rabbit stance for this reason: A horse should be entered to win a race. Not to be a shill or a pawn of another contender. That's why (and I think rightfully so) people are bothered. The toteboard, nor the race, is labeled "Beat Justify" --- quite the contrary --- it is to win the Belmont Stakes. That's why they list odds on each horse and only offshores would do funky props like "Justify will not win" and then associate a price with it.

And you know that I'm with you, str, in hoping that we can score off of Justify having a lackluster performance here. While I want to make money, I must stay true to what I believe which is that each horse should try their best to win the race --- not sacrifice themselves so others have a better shot. That's not racing, that's chicken shit stuff.

[str]

on the belmont i just think it's one of those unusual situations of a horse with a chance to win the triple crown
and the owner has a part interest in another whose strategy could foil his bid to do it.. just one of those things
and nothing you can do about it.. one thing I will say though is justify has consistently run big pace figures
whereas noble Indy has only done it once in the louisiana derby.. just have a hunch that even if noble Indy is pressing him from the outside justify might be able to withstand it even though ideally that's not where he wants to be

on another note army mule won't be running in the met mile which was his target race

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...consideration/

Sorry to hear about Army Mule. He's a really cool horse.

[str]

I support the anti-rabbit stance for this reason: A horse should be entered to win a race. Not to be a shill or a pawn of another contender. That's why (and I think rightfully so) people are bothered. The toteboard, nor the race, is labeled "Beat Justify" --- quite the contrary --- it is to win the Belmont Stakes. That's why they list odds on each horse and only offshores would do funky props like "Justify will not win" and then associate a price with it.

And you know that I'm with you, str, in hoping that we can score off of Justify having a lackluster performance here. While I want to make money, I must stay true to what I believe which is that each horse should try their best to win the race --- not sacrifice themselves so others have a better shot. That's not racing, that's chicken shit stuff.

No problem Stackin. I respect anybody's opinion. One thing I should be clear about is that it is not so much gunning to beat Justify as it is, and was for me in much lesser races when I ran entries with both dimensions involved, it is a horse that wants the lead. If the odds on horse also wants it, somebody will and somebody won't. Not a total sacrifice of an owners horse. More a way to assure the owner or trainer that if the pace is slow or moderate my speed horse should run well but if the pace is crazy, I have a closer coming late. The rabbit stuff comes after the fact and while sometimes right, it is often times incorrect in that the horse would have had a chance if not for the favorite that also flashed early and decided that a duel was necessary. I am not into running a 99-1 shot that will be crushed no matter what. That was not what I was referring to.

I had horses labeled rabbits that won when the odds on horse broke in a tangle, took back, didn't fire or was a late scratch, etc. I was not suggesting to abuse a speed or purely sacrifice a speed horse to pick up the pieces with the other one. But people label the speed horse as a rabbit so I referred to the horse as that. I know that a true rabbit is a horse with no chance to win and a single mission to speed up the pace. While some will call Noble Indy a rabbit if he would pressure early, it's unfair IMO. He can win, especially if Justify backs out and falters. And with the owner saying the Noble Indy WILL be on the lead, you have to wonder if that is a true intention or if he just wants Smith to gun out and hope Justify will run off and not rate as kindly as he might if he slowly cruised up to the lead going into the 1st turn.


I got the form an hour ago and noticed that Noble Indy is Blks. OFF. That is not a rabbit move. They are looking for him to relax to get the distance. But if he hooks up, he will be labeled a rabbit won't he? I guess the public will call him whatever they want to but that won't include me.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: Do you remember the 2005 Derby and the "rabbit" Spanish Chestnut? That year Giacomo scored. If my memory serves me correct he was running to help a certain horse.