Originally Posted by
str
Would like to see a few races before picking for sure. But not sure when I can get back here so here are my thoughts if anybody cares.
Assuming I would be playing a triple:
1. Firenze Fire- Just seems overmatched .
2. Free Drop Willy- Plodder but probably gets a rail trip for a good portion which should be a good thing and he is a winner over the track, ran well in mud if that happens and Romans is the home team. Will have him 3rd in my triples. Currently 42-1
3. Promise Fulfilled- Should make the lead early and with speed doing so well yesterday will probably stick around longer than that last mess he ran when he and another horse went waaaay too fast and burned each other up. It seems like Justify ( as long as he breaks and gets away from the field the first 1/8th) should be laying 2nd to his outside and I would think Justify would be more than happy to allow this horse to carry the field past the 3/8ths pole if he can. That would not surprise me, but once Justify or another horse if Justify gets tangled up early moves to him, I would think, bias or not, that he will have little left for the drive. I am going to leave him off my ticket. Don't bite me in the rear end bias . 41-1
4. Flameaway- This horse always seems to put in a run and I see no reason why he would not today as well. 53-1 has him in the 3rd slot on my ticket every time.
5. Audible - Third start off the layoff which is usually a solid angle and especially if the first two were with this race in mind. I don't see any holes in him on paper. He should be fairly close to the rail, not way back unless he gets tangled up early and from that spot he would have to regress to not be in the hunt. Maybe he will but I can't see that on paper. He will be on all three spots of my ticket. He is currently 6-1.
6. Good Magic- He is by no means a weak horse in here but it seems to me that he will end up laying in the back 7,8,9 or 10 horses early. And while I would not be shocked at all if he would run well and ruin my ticket, I have to take a stand against some of the low prices and laying back like I think he will do early, allows me to toss him, especially off yesterday's speed favoring results and without the benefit of seeing today's earlier races prior to posting this ticket. 8-1
7. Justify- If he does not break clean he can get tangled up early and a lack of experience can bite him in the butt. But he will load 13th out of 20 so he won't be in there THAT long. I worry about him getting off slowly in races so far but three slower horses outside of him gives him two or three extra steps to get going. That said, if he breaks and gets that solo outside 2nd position into the 1st turn with the 3 leading the way, it is his his race to lose from that point on. The first 20 seconds of the race is critical for him IMO. But I do think he is the most talented horse in here so as much as I want to toss him and light up the board, the speed favoring ( I assume it stays the same as yesterday) track and the lack of early speed to get into his right eye early in all probability has me using in in all three slots on my ticket. But as you will see, if he runs out, I have plenty of other chances. 7-2.
8. Lone Sailor- He should be running late and while I am not sure he wants this distance, I like the inside post to help be on the better part of the track early and I never met a longshot closer with a race ( two actually) over the track and whose only win was in the slop and rain being at least a solid maybe over this sometimes tricky surface that I didn't like. 28-1.
9. Hofburg- Another third off the layoff and has improved with every race. Running in the Derby is not Mott's style so that tells you how special this horse has acted up to now. I would not be stunned at all if he won, but I would be upset because I have this guy in the 2nd and 3rd slots on my ticket. Him winning would not shock me a bit but would sting pretty good. 24-1. If I change any part of this ticket it would be to add him in all three spots because of that juicy price on what I perceive to be a live horse.
10. My Boy Jack- If I had any thoughts of using him in the 3rd spot, that all went out the window when I see he is currently 5-1. That blows my mind. No way at anything near that price. If he runs 1,2,3, I lose and that's ok with me at that number.
11. Bolt D'oro- I like him, and will have him in all three spots on my ticket. Another 3rd off the layoff and improving with each start. I see some trainer % numbers that are not the greatest but I'm a believer. 8-1
12. Enticed - I hate throwing out a horse that has won over this track AND won on an off track but I am going to. Hope I don't regret it. 52-1
13.Bravazo- I don't see it. 68-1
14. Mendelssohn- He ran right out of the TV in Dubai but there was such a stupid speed bias that it really muddies the water. He is probably a really nice horse, but the trip over, the bias stuff and knowing I can't use them all has me hoping against him and his short odds. 5-1
15. Instilled Regard- I don't see it. Wish I could at 99-1.
16. Magnum Moon- I might be missing the boat on this horse but he just seems a cut below at least several of these IMO. 13-1
17. Solomini- If I don't see the 16 how can I like this one? I will pass on him. 68-1
18. Vino Rosso- Flameaway beat him twice and I am using Flameaway 3rd on my ticket. That has me not use this guy. 18-1
19. Noble Indy- He is another one that I think looks to be just a cut below several others IMO. I will pass. 49-1
20. Combatant- He just can't seem to make up any ground through the lane so far and I don't think that type of effort will get it done in here. I will pass on him as well. 78-1
So my ticket will be a 1.00 triple that looks like 5,7,11- 5,7,9,11- 2,4,5,7,8,9,11. That works out to be three times four times seven times 1.00 = 84.00. If we add the 9 to the top spot as well it will be 112.00.
Probably split that with one of my best friends from way back in the Bob Gibson era . I will save that gambling story for another day. Might even have already told it in this long and winding road of a thread.
Good luck everybody and please bet within your means. Don't get hurt and enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports!