[str]

hey str

the ortiz brothers since the beginning of 2017 have ridden
in over 3300 races (1700/1600) and are both winning at a 20% clip..if you played all their mounts you would lose about 17 cents on the dollar.. rather than say I'm looking for a system because we know there's no such thing how about some parameters to lower the loss which is not horrible to begin with

ortiz brothers..
lower half or third of the claiming ladder..
finished 4th or worse last out..
not dropping down..


I realize the 4th could be do to a bad trip or a bad ride from another jockey but want simple rules.. could you see a simple method like this lowering the loss over a large sample of races..sure you can see the logic behind these rules..if you think there'd be a good addition feel free to suggest it

I have read plenty on how talented these two are. I have also heard a ton of complaints about one of them, and maybe both, taking hold of pure speed horses and trying to make them do something they do not seem to want to do. That would be the first place I would look.

You know I am and always will be a firm believer that riders have strengths and weaknesses. I also believe that you cannot make a horse do many things that they do not feel comfortable doing. That said, I would start there. Which ever one of these two that has a tendency to take everything back, start with horses they are riding that want the lead or right on the lead.

As for dropping down or lower claiming horses, without knowing these guys it would be just a guess.

If half the bitching about dragging speed back is fair, this has to be of some help in bettering the ROI.

[JBEX]

I have read plenty on how talented these two are. I have also heard a ton of complaints about one of them, and maybe both, taking hold of pure speed horses and trying to make them do something they do not seem to want to do. That would be the first place I would look.

You know I am and always will be a firm believer that riders have strengths and weaknesses. I also believe that you cannot make a horse do many things that they do not feel comfortable doing. That said, I would start there. Which ever one of these two that has a tendency to take everything back, start with horses they are riding that want the lead or right on the lead.

As for dropping down or lower claiming horses, without knowing these guys it would be just a guess.

If half the bitching about dragging speed back is fair, this has to be of some help in bettering the ROI.

i know I led off with the ortiz boys and I was heading more towards a mechanical system to decrease the loss playing them rather than critique their riding (although your information is certainly something to look out for).. I used them as the riders because of their skill and volume of mounts it really could be any top rider at a particular track.. trying to find situations where you question why is he riding such and such a horse and thought maybe some
of the above parameters might detect those situations

.. even the cheapest claiming levels in NY and GP are worth shooting for earnings in so why they would ride in those races not really a good filter..you know, why is johnny v hanging around to ride the cheap mdn claimer in the last race that only looks so so on paper.. that type of logic.. the finishing 4th or worse and not dropping down in claiming price (excluding a bad trip) might mean that there's something better about this horse that's not showing on paper ..therefore top jock's still riding and the reward might be more worthwhile..still ,don't think it's heading anywhere so getting out while the going's good lol..thanks anyhow str

[str]

On my phone so hope it is ok.
Here goes.

I have never seen a solid mechanical therory with jocks.
The johnney v. Waiting in the room comment is actually a solid thought. If he is riding for his regular barn or trying to get into a big name barn that would be why.
But if it is lesser name trainer with12 or less horses that is worth a solid second look.
Basically, if it does not make sense on the surface, there is almost always a good reason. That usually projects to a live horse.

The forth or worse no drop down is great but only if the trainer has a nice win %. If they are a low % it is that type of move that keeps their % low.

Knowing a riders strength and weakness is a key to bettering that riders Roi.
I will post something on that next.
Let me know JBEX what other specifics you might see. There are some angles that really are solid.

[str]

Don't know if you will like this JBEX as this is what you said you were not really looking for but this was the only way I could help ROI in regards to jockeys. And when I was doing this full time, my ROI was trying to get the most out of each horse I had. Or, trying to claim a horse that had a rider that maybe did not suit it as well as another type rider might.

Here it is:


Knowing riders styles and strengths was huge as far as I was concerned. Some riders have a strength as a speed rider and some have more strength as a position or take back rider. When left with a split second decision, the riders instinct and confidence of one or the other will usually rule the decision.


If you play at a track, knowing riders, in my mind is essential. People talk about taking an edge and this is an area where it indeed is an edge to know the colony or riders and their riding styles.
You can have a better shot at predicting pace when you know which riders are more suited on the lead and which riders are more content to sit early on.

If someone struggles learning the jocks, try this. Don't bet much or at all for as long as it takes to at least get started. I say don't bet because you will watch your horse and not every rider in the race. Watch every race but do handicap for speed, pace and position.

Watch each jock for the first 10 seconds of the race. You will need to watch replays several times. Also watch speed duels to see who will back off after a bit and who will not. Compare that to the form of the horse . Also compare the form when another rider rode the horse previously.

Their active or not active hands and elbows are the key areas to look at.

Then watch from the 1/2 mile pole ( red pole just before the far turn at a mile track)to the 3/8ths pole( green and white pole about a third of the way around the far turn at a mile track). This is a telling part of the race. Almost every jock tells you who they are in those 12 seconds.

This will take about 3-4 weeks to get a starting handle on things. Less if you put more time into past replays.
As this time goes by, you can start to bet but continue to take notes on this. Within a few months you will have a solid set of notes on the entire jocks room. Constantly verify your notes to make any adjustments necessary. Do this for as many tracks as you like.

If you want to know who will do what in an early pace speed duel , this is how you do it.

There are speed riders and then there are SPEED riders. Same with patient riders. Its not all just black or white. This is especially true at the major tracks. The best riders in the U.S. usually have more diversity in their styles. But not always.
But other than a few circuits, most colonies are solidly in one group or another.

This is no knock on any riders. It is just history from what I saw everyday for a long time.
And to be fair to jocks, most trainers were the same way. Almost all of them have strengths and weaknesses. Most won't admit it, and I don't blame them, but they do.

Looking forward, how sweet would it be to see in the future for 12 seconds out of the gate before betting the race ? Well, it's not quite all that, but it's a start.

Lastly, I was taught that, the more you see, the more you see.
It seemed so hard at the time to work towards that. But it didn't take THAT long for the fog to start lifting.

Sure hope some of you try it. I don't think you will look back on it as a waste of time.

Hope this helps.

[cutchemist42]

I was reading a thread in players talk where someone asked about money management. I am pretty sure I have talked about this before but have no idea where or when in this thread, so I thought it would maybe help someone if I re posted what helped me a lot .

We all know it depends on what game you are playing so I will try and explain a basic overview of horses and the NFL and you can fill in the same logic with whichever sport you choose.

Like many players, before keeping records, I will say I broke about even. LOLOL. We all know that is a load of crap. I had to lose combining everything, and it was not a lot of money because I never had enough early on to make high plays. But, the amount is relative to the players wealth so that doesn't really matter. But even though I am sure that I made money playing certain sports, overall, I had to be in the negative overall. No doubt about it.

So one year, I started keeping a record of all my plays. It's easier than you think. I made a page for every sport I played. It showed yearly amounts .

But for daily amounts, I just wrote down the amount plus or minus. Then transferred that to monthly, and then yearly. It didn't take long to realize that I needed more categories to help me become a better player. I started breaking down horses into fast or off track. A simple asterisk by the amount told me off track. I then expanded that to sprint or distance, as well as win, place, show, exacta and Daily double. No triples or other back in the day when all this started.

For football it became, Home or road favs or dogs, and Monday night which was a novelty back then. That would soon expand to back to back road games or home games, etc. etc.

It did not take long to see that certain categories I was quite strong in, while others I was pretty bad.

Eliminating playing the losing categories, which for me at the track were place, show, and daily double and keeping the winning ones made gambling almost become investing. Same with football. I eliminated road favs and most home favs.

Because I was so interested in BEATING the game, I lost interest in the need or impulse to have action.

As far as I am concerned, that last sentence was the most important finding in doing what I did.

It changed everything for me. My patience, my tolerance, my outlook on gambling.

No sense in rambling on any further about this without addressing a specific so that's the simple version for now.

I know that what I did and still do, is not for everyone but hopefully it is for someone. And if not to the degree I took it, maybe to a lesser degree for some players.

Whatever the case, I hope this helps someone improve their bottom line.

Great post.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Don't know if you will like this JBEX as this is what you said you were not really looking for but this was the only way I could help ROI in regards to jockeys. And when I was doing this full time, my ROI was trying to get the most out of each horse I had. Or, trying to claim a horse that had a rider that maybe did not suit it as well as another type rider might.

Here it is:


Knowing riders styles and strengths was huge as far as I was concerned. Some riders have a strength as a speed rider and some have more strength as a position or take back rider. When left with a split second decision, the riders instinct and confidence of one or the other will usually rule the decision.


If you play at a track, knowing riders, in my mind is essential. People talk about taking an edge and this is an area where it indeed is an edge to know the colony or riders and their riding styles.
You can have a better shot at predicting pace when you know which riders are more suited on the lead and which riders are more content to sit early on.

If someone struggles learning the jocks, try this. Don't bet much or at all for as long as it takes to at least get started. I say don't bet because you will watch your horse and not every rider in the race. Watch every race but do handicap for speed, pace and position.

Watch each jock for the first 10 seconds of the race. You will need to watch replays several times. Also watch speed duels to see who will back off after a bit and who will not. Compare that to the form of the horse . Also compare the form when another rider rode the horse previously.

Their active or not active hands and elbows are the key areas to look at.

Then watch from the 1/2 mile pole ( red pole just before the far turn at a mile track)to the 3/8ths pole( green and white pole about a third of the way around the far turn at a mile track). This is a telling part of the race. Almost every jock tells you who they are in those 12 seconds.

This will take about 3-4 weeks to get a starting handle on things. Less if you put more time into past replays.
As this time goes by, you can start to bet but continue to take notes on this. Within a few months you will have a solid set of notes on the entire jocks room. Constantly verify your notes to make any adjustments necessary. Do this for as many tracks as you like.

If you want to know who will do what in an early pace speed duel , this is how you do it.

There are speed riders and then there are SPEED riders. Same with patient riders. Its not all just black or white. This is especially true at the major tracks. The best riders in the U.S. usually have more diversity in their styles. But not always.
But other than a few circuits, most colonies are solidly in one group or another.

This is no knock on any riders. It is just history from what I saw everyday for a long time.
And to be fair to jocks, most trainers were the same way. Almost all of them have strengths and weaknesses. Most won't admit it, and I don't blame them, but they do.

Looking forward, how sweet would it be to see in the future for 12 seconds out of the gate before betting the race ? Well, it's not quite all that, but it's a start.

Lastly, I was taught that, the more you see, the more you see.
It seemed so hard at the time to work towards that. But it didn't take THAT long for the fog to start lifting.

Sure hope some of you try it. I don't think you will look back on it as a waste of time.

Hope this helps.

Interesting info STR. The Brisnet PP's break down how each rider does with certain types of running styles, surfaces, and sprint/route. Will take more of a notice of what you describe here as well. Thx.

[JBEX]

hey str..figured you might like to know about this

GP R6 ..5f turf listed stakes for 3yo

#8 clouded judgement (10-1)

lacey gaudet running her first horse of the meet..broke his maiden 5th start (2nd on turf) in his last race at laurel back in november..has been training regularly since that win and the last 6 works are at gulfstream..edgar prado whose having a real bad meet (0-39) gets the mount..have a hunch if you see this you'll be rooting them on

should also mention brisnet pace and final figures are big

[str]

Interesting info STR. The Brisnet PP's break down how each rider does with certain types of running styles, surfaces, and sprint/route. Will take more of a notice of what you describe here as well. Thx.

Thanks Easy.

I was not aware of that.

I wonder though who takes these notes and what their criteria is?

That would be interesting.

Looks like a lot of my edges are long gone. Lol.

[str]

hey str..figured you might like to know about this

GP R6 ..5f turf listed stakes for 3yo

#8 clouded judgement (10-1)

lacey gaudet running her first horse of the meet..broke his maiden 5th start (2nd on turf) in his last race at laurel back in november..has been training regularly since that win and the last 6 works are at gulfstream..edgar prado whose having a real bad meet (0-39) gets the mount..have a hunch if you see this you'll be rooting them on

should also mention brisnet pace and final figures are big

Thank you JBEX.

I sure will be rooting for her.

She is going with the old hometown angle. Edgar, as you know, ruled Md. for years.

Funny how sometimes all a struggling jock needs is a ship in from a place he used to dominate and a name he used to win with. I've seen that happen plenty of times.

I hope so for both of them. That would be cool.


I didn't mention it but Eddie Gaudet, her dad, passed away last month.

As previously mentioned, what a racetrack character.

One of a kind.

He was a good friend.

Thanks again JBEX.

[mrginandtonic]

Don't know if you will like this JBEX as this is what you said you were not really looking for but this was the only way I could help ROI in regards to jockeys. And when I was doing this full time, my ROI was trying to get the most out of each horse I had. Or, trying to claim a horse that had a rider that maybe did not suit it as well as another type rider might.

Here it is:


Knowing riders styles and strengths was huge as far as I was concerned. Some riders have a strength as a speed rider and some have more strength as a position or take back rider. When left with a split second decision, the riders instinct and confidence of one or the other will usually rule the decision.


If you play at a track, knowing riders, in my mind is essential. People talk about taking an edge and this is an area where it indeed is an edge to know the colony or riders and their riding styles.
You can have a better shot at predicting pace when you know which riders are more suited on the lead and which riders are more content to sit early on.

If someone struggles learning the jocks, try this. Don't bet much or at all for as long as it takes to at least get started. I say don't bet because you will watch your horse and not every rider in the race. Watch every race but do handicap for speed, pace and position.

Watch each jock for the first 10 seconds of the race. You will need to watch replays several times. Also watch speed duels to see who will back off after a bit and who will not. Compare that to the form of the horse . Also compare the form when another rider rode the horse previously.

Their active or not active hands and elbows are the key areas to look at.

Then watch from the 1/2 mile pole ( red pole just before the far turn at a mile track)to the 3/8ths pole( green and white pole about a third of the way around the far turn at a mile track). This is a telling part of the race. Almost every jock tells you who they are in those 12 seconds.

This will take about 3-4 weeks to get a starting handle on things. Less if you put more time into past replays.
As this time goes by, you can start to bet but continue to take notes on this. Within a few months you will have a solid set of notes on the entire jocks room. Constantly verify your notes to make any adjustments necessary. Do this for as many tracks as you like.

If you want to know who will do what in an early pace speed duel , this is how you do it.

There are speed riders and then there are SPEED riders. Same with patient riders. Its not all just black or white. This is especially true at the major tracks. The best riders in the U.S. usually have more diversity in their styles. But not always.
But other than a few circuits, most colonies are solidly in one group or another.

This is no knock on any riders. It is just history from what I saw everyday for a long time.
And to be fair to jocks, most trainers were the same way. Almost all of them have strengths and weaknesses. Most won't admit it, and I don't blame them, but they do.

Looking forward, how sweet would it be to see in the future for 12 seconds out of the gate before betting the race ? Well, it's not quite all that, but it's a start.

Lastly, I was taught that, the more you see, the more you see.
It seemed so hard at the time to work towards that. But it didn't take THAT long for the fog to start lifting.

Sure hope some of you try it. I don't think you will look back on it as a waste of time.

Hope this helps.

I can’t agree more. Looking at jockey is just as important and looking at trainers and horse. Back in the says, when I was so into racing, I love P. Valenzuela when he is on the front running horse. To me, he was the best in getting the out of the gate and have them relax in the front. And Eddie D was one of the best if the not the best closer that I have ever seen. There is so much information I horse racing and need to keep up in order to gain an advantage. And to me, that’s the fun of it.

[JBEX]

np str and sorry to hear about him passing..remember you saying he had alzheimers ..my sympathies to you

I saw the race and won't say the result in case you want to watch it

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thanks JW.
Having left the game in 2001 I do not know about all the updated information available.This is exactly what I am talking about.
Thanks again.

STR: This was posted in your thread on 5/9/11. Post #12. You probably forgot about it. But it gives an example of the Brisnet PP's rider info.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Sorry, don't want to take-over the thread its got a lot of good reading in it already - however the Brisnet Ultimate PP's do give some info on riders strengths .. example ...



Here you can see Katie Reynolds has a 6% strike rate at Charles Town - however when riding "P" type horses - her strike rate jumps to 18% .. so she hits @ three times the rate when on "P" horses ... of course more info is needed - but as a basic tool to weed out trends .. the info is out there ...

:0)

Here it is.

[str]

STR: This was posted in your thread on 5/9/11. Post #12. You probably forgot about it. But it gives an example of the Brisnet PP's rider info.

Yeah, Easy. I totally forgot about being told that years ago.

I do remember it now that you showed me the old post.

Sorry about that.

[JBEX]

hey str

just wanted to get your opinion on the topic that I brought up in my recent thread.. long established bad trainers and jockeys who team up together to lose by less than 2 lengths,back within a month at the same level,distance and surface.. my casual observation over time is these types are overlays over the long haul..the betting public just hates to have their money
on bad connections in spite of a good recent effort by the horse

[str]

hey str

just wanted to get your opinion on the topic that I brought up in my recent thread.. long established bad trainers and jockeys who team up together to lose by less than 2 lengths,back within a month at the same level,distance and surface.. my casual observation over time is these types are overlays over the long haul..the betting public just hates to have their money
on bad connections in spite of a good recent effort by the horse

This is very true. Several of these types of connections came into my mind immediately from my Md. days.

But many more should have come back to win, than actually did. IMO, of course.

They would run 3rd or 4th , something like that. Maybe 2nd. But even though they were an overlay, they didn't win much. Probably enough to pay for the angle, but not sure of how much profit . That's obviously the key.
So my question becomes, are they an overlay underneath exactas , triples, etc.? Probably not as much as you would hope. That's not to say don't use them. But I assume you are not alone in playing them underneath.

For me, when I was active in the claim box, I loved these types. I would claim them all the time figuring I could get them to win. Nothing is automatic but more often than not, the claim worked out well.

I think the angle deserves a solid try to actually see if a profit can be had in the win column. But I would check exacta payouts with the horse underneath as well . Maybe a win play, and underneath one or two horses in an exacta. Really depends if the odds hold up underneath though. We have all seen plenty of 12-1 shots that are the third lowest exacta payout underneath the favorite or second choice when they should be more like the fifth lowest price.
Very interested to see the results of this and see if what I always assumed is correct or a bunch of crap. Lol.

Good luck with it JBEX and let me know please.

[JBEX]

This is very true. Several of these types of connections came into my mind immediately from my Md. days.

But many more should have come back to win, than actually did. IMO, of course.

They would run 3rd or 4th , something like that. Maybe 2nd. But even though they were an overlay, they didn't win much. Probably enough to pay for the angle, but not sure of how much profit . That's obviously the key.
So my question becomes, are they an overlay underneath exactas , triples, etc.? Probably not as much as you would hope. That's not to say don't use them. But I assume you are not alone in playing them underneath.

For me, when I was active in the claim box, I loved these types. I would claim them all the time figuring I could get them to win. Nothing is automatic but more often than not, the claim worked out well.

I think the angle deserves a solid try to actually see if a profit can be had in the win column. But I would check exacta payouts with the horse underneath as well . Maybe a win play, and underneath one or two horses in an exacta. Really depends if the odds hold up underneath though. We have all seen plenty of 12-1 shots that are the third lowest exacta payout underneath the favorite or second choice when they should be more like the fifth lowest price.
Very interested to see the results of this and see if what I always assumed is correct or a bunch of crap. Lol.

Good luck with it JBEX and let me know please.

really was more interested in the logic rather than running a long test..I'm always skeptical of small samples anyway..even in the 100's
you're horse wins because another had a bad trip or you should have won if not for a bad trip will often skew reality

if I was gonna play it would just be win/place as I want something I could spend 10-15 mins a day looking for and then put in and play.i understand what you're saying about these types running 2nd and 3rd but really looking for something turn key..

do feel this would have a shot at being profitable over the long haul..I will post when I find them in the other thread..

let me throw another theory at you
..if read this a long time ago in one of mark cramer's books (a great handicapping mind if you've never read his stuff)

there is something about a horse that wins that is good in itself without any considerations of class ,distance,surface trk conditions and speed figures..not that the factors mentioned aren't important but just the fact the horse won has value....when the other factors seem to highly minimize his chances of repeating the public will let the horse who looks impossibly
overmatched go off at an overlay odds forgetting that he did get it done in his last race..again not looking to test a system here but just see if you feel there's any logic to this

[str]

really was more interested in the logic rather than running a long test..I'm always skeptical of small samples anyway..even in the 100's
you're horse wins because another had a bad trip or you should have won if not for a bad trip will often skew reality

if I was gonna play it would just be win/place as I want something I could spend 10-15 mins a day looking for and then put in and play.i understand what you're saying about these types running 2nd and 3rd but really looking for something turn key..

do feel this would have a shot at being profitable over the long haul..I will post when I find them in the other thread..

let me throw another theory at you
..if read this a long time ago in one of mark cramer's books (a great handicapping mind if you've never read his stuff)

there is something about a horse that wins that is good in itself without any considerations of class ,distance,surface trk conditions and speed figures..not that the factors mentioned aren't important but just the fact the horse won has value....when the other factors seem to highly minimize his chances of repeating the public will let the horse who looks impossibly
overmatched go off at an overlay odds forgetting that he did get it done in his last race..again not looking to test a system here but just see if you feel there's any logic to this

Q. if I was gonna play it would just be win/place as I want something I could spend 10-15 mins a day looking for and then put in and play.

A. If I did that I am pretty sure I would play twice as much to place as to win. At least that was the first thing that came to mind.

Q. there is something about a horse that wins that is good in itself without any considerations of class ,distance,surface trk conditions and speed figures..not that the factors mentioned aren't important but just the fact the horse won has value....when the other factors seem to highly minimize his chances of repeating the public will let the horse who looks impossibly
overmatched go off at an overlay odds forgetting that he did get it done in his last race..again not looking to test a system here but just see if you feel there's any logic to this

A. Absolutely !!

A horse with confidence , eats better, sleeps better, trains better and is Happy. To be around a happy horse is really cool. They ooze with confidence. Next time you are at the track live, watch a few winners when they leave the winners circle. See if they are not bouncing for at least the first 10-20 steps. Hopefully you will see that. If you do, that is exactly what I am trying to describe.

Conversely, a horse with no confidence can be off their feed, unhappy, mope around, sulky, and just generally not into it. Also watch the losers and see how many heads are down and just slowly walk away. It's not a perfect picture but you will see my point I am pretty sure.

Now this does not happen all the time and you see many varying degrees of this but a horse that has the right attitude will dig much deeper late in the race than one that is ho hum about it.

No question about it.

[JBEX]

Q. if I was gonna play it would just be win/place as I want something I could spend 10-15 mins a day looking for and then put in and play.

A. If I did that I am pretty sure I would play twice as much to place as to win. At least that was the first thing that came to mind.

Q. there is something about a horse that wins that is good in itself without any considerations of class ,distance,surface trk conditions and speed figures..not that the factors mentioned aren't important but just the fact the horse won has value....when the other factors seem to highly minimize his chances of repeating the public will let the horse who looks impossibly
overmatched go off at an overlay odds forgetting that he did get it done in his last race..again not looking to test a system here but just see if you feel there's any logic to this

A. Absolutely !!

A horse with confidence , eats better, sleeps better, trains better and is Happy. To be around a happy horse is really cool. They ooze with confidence. Next time you are at the track live, watch a few winners when they leave the winners circle. See if they are not bouncing for at least the first 10-20 steps. Hopefully you will see that. If you do, that is exactly what I am trying to describe.

Conversely, a horse with no confidence can be off their feed, unhappy, mope around, sulky, and just generally not into it. Also watch the losers and see how many heads are down and just slowly walk away. It's not a perfect picture but you will see my point I am pretty sure.

Now this does not happen all the time and you see many varying degrees of this but a horse that has the right attitude will dig much deeper late in the race than one that is ho hum about it.

No question about it.

great information str !! interesting to know that winning can affect the horse in a positive way on and off the track..not saying just play any horse off a win but if there are other favorable factors about him and figures
a little on the low side might be worth considering..


good example might be a horse who breaks his mdn @ 30k clm level and is taking the next reasonable step into a clm 15kn2l..the other horse ran decent in a clm 30k n2l and has above avg connections..you will usually not get value with the latter over the long run..if the former (mdn)
won running a below avg figure relative to that level (realize being very general)you might have the makings of an overlay as the public loves drop downs rather than a mdn trying to repeat in its next race..lower hit rate than the other for sure but we're
concerned about our bottom line long haul and not whether we cash this particular race

[Statman]

Hi guys,

New to this thread and enjoy reading all the valuable information. Thanks for keeping it alive and I have some general questions I've often thought about and would like to get your perspective on. Been playing the thoroughbred horses for years and my local track is Woodbine.

Q1: Is there any relation to a horse's performance when a "claim" is in the box? Reason I ask is that I've often seen some horses have "blow out" wins and others finish up the track. Also, why is it that tracks typically announce to the public that a claim has been made AFTER the race and not before? Conversely, I've been to a few harness races at Woodbine and have heard BEFORE the race goes off that claims have been entered on specific horses. Again, not sure if there is any relation but curious as to your thoughts on this. Lastly, from a trainer's perspective, would they use this to their advantage or is this simply 'smoke and mirrors'?

Q2: I've often heard that close to 40% of the money bet on any given race comes from owners and trainers and the rest from 'Joe Public'. In your experience, is this statement true or false? I'm a big believer in watching the tote board and one can often see some interesting movements in the odds when compared to the morning line. It's those horses attracting that attention is typically where I'll begin to look at first.

Thank you and keep up the great work !!

[JBEX]

hey statman..the first question i'm sure str could answer but something I don't know


Q2...I doubt that..I don't think they would even account for 10% but no way to know for sure..

if i see a horse @ 5-1 ml who i think will go off @ around 3-1 and is sitting on the board @ 8-1 feel that's a bad sign

I used to pay more attention to that than I do now but I do try to avoid horses who I feel are going off higher than I think they should..but I prefer to use what I think the ml should be rather than what the track guy has it at

[mrginandtonic]

Sir STR, I don’t know if you are able to look at replays. But if you can, can you give me your input on a horse that ran today at Santa Anita. It is race 5, 7- Beautiful Becca. The race pretty much unfolded exactly how I envision it. She would be on the outside mid pack avoiding traffic and make a run turning for home. She looked really good from gate to even after turning for home in the stretch. I was really excited. Then, I don’t know what happened, it looked like she was full of run making the final turn, then the rider just kinda sit there and didn’t make an effort to ride her to finish. I am not good at looking at horses so I just want to get your thoughts. Thank you very much in advance.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Cal racing has free replays the next day for all Cal racing.

[Statman]

Thank you JBEX for your input...I take the same approach when I see a horse go off at higher than M/L or expected odds as well. What your saying makes sense also on the handle side of things too being that owners and trainers may account for 10% of the handle. On any "feature" race at Gulfstream Park, I see the total handle easily surpasses $1,000,000 so $100k would come from owners/trainers. Appreciate your input and will become a regular follower of this thread.

hey statman..the first question i'm sure str could answer but something I don't know


Q2...I doubt that..I don't think they would even account for 10% but no way to know for sure..

if i see a horse @ 5-1 ml who i think will go off @ around 3-1 and is sitting on the board @ 8-1 feel that's a bad sign

I used to pay more attention to that than I do now but I do try to avoid horses who I feel are going off higher than I think they should..but I prefer to use what I think the ml should be rather than what the track guy has it at

[str]

Hi guys,

New to this thread and enjoy reading all the valuable information. Thanks for keeping it alive and I have some general questions I've often thought about and would like to get your perspective on. Been playing the thoroughbred horses for years and my local track is Woodbine.

Q1: Is there any relation to a horse's performance when a "claim" is in the box? Reason I ask is that I've often seen some horses have "blow out" wins and others finish up the track. Also, why is it that tracks typically announce to the public that a claim has been made AFTER the race and not before? Conversely, I've been to a few harness races at Woodbine and have heard BEFORE the race goes off that claims have been entered on specific horses. Again, not sure if there is any relation but curious as to your thoughts on this. Lastly, from a trainer's perspective, would they use this to their advantage or is this simply 'smoke and mirrors'?

Q2: I've often heard that close to 40% of the money bet on any given race comes from owners and trainers and the rest from 'Joe Public'. In your experience, is this statement true or false? I'm a big believer in watching the tote board and one can often see some interesting movements in the odds when compared to the morning line. It's those horses attracting that attention is typically where I'll begin to look at first.

Thank you and keep up the great work !!

Q1 Is there any relation to a horse's performance when a "claim" is in the box? Reason I ask is that I've often seen some horses have "blow out" wins and others finish up the track.

A1. Simple answer is no. Now I can muddy that up with maybe that was the best horse or one of the favorites or whatever but the simple straightforward answer is no.

Q. Also, why is it that tracks typically announce to the public that a claim has been made AFTER the race and not before?

A. Every track where I participated had a claim cutoff at 15 minutes. So when the claim box closes, the claims clerk must carefully read each claim for accuracy. The date, horses name, race number, signature or authorized agent signature , race number on the envelope as well and the envelope sealed all have to be perfect. If any little thing is off, including crossing a T or doting an i, the claim is voided. To show how tough it can be, if you claim a horse that was bred in say G.B. (Great Britain) and spell out the horses name and do not put next to it, G.B., exactly as the program has it, the claim is voided. It must match the program exactly.
The claims clerk must then verify funds for any and all claims with the horseman's bookkeeper. Claim money must be clear to disperse and all cash .That can take usually 3-7 or 8 minutes depending on how many claims there are. And sometimes there are multiple claims for the same horse. That can take several minutes longer.
After that, the clerk must verify eligibility of the trainer and owner. Usually that takes little time but at the beginning of a meet it can take longer.

If there are multiple claims for a horse a "shake" will occur after the race. A shake is when each claim slip is stapled to the envelope it was delivered in. They are mixed together in front of a representative for each owner and placed across a table for all to see. Then, a number is written on each similar claim, on the back of the envelope so nobody knows which is which and whose is who, 1,2,3,4 etc. Next, the corresponding numbered balls are put into a non see through bottle , shaken up, and whichever ball comes out gets the horse. This cannot happen without a representative for every owner that is involved in the shake is present to witness it.
So, with only 14 minutes to do all these tasks , they might be able to announce a claim 3-4 minutes before post but sometimes they would run out of time. The inconsistency would not fly with the public as you can imagine. Some would cry fix, or collusion or whatever, and that is understandable. As a result of all of this, they announce after the race is over.

Q. Conversely, I've been to a few harness races at Woodbine and have heard BEFORE the race goes off that claims have been entered on specific horses.

A. I suppose they could announce the intent to claim prior to the race, with maybe 8-10 minutes to post, but honestly, from a handicapping perspective, I personally would not see the relevance. Also, if a jock knew that horse was claimed and they rode extremely hard for the slightest bit of purse money, like 4th or 5th or whatever, and the horse fell, or broke down, I could only imagine the outrage that would follow. It is probably best for all parties that they announce after the race. Again, IMO I see no help to the customer by having that info prior to the race being run.


Please let me stray away from the exact questions for a minute and say the following:

Customers understandably think the "insiders" know everything and that goes for all sporting events where bets are placed. And while some do know quite a bit, a lot of these insiders are pretenders in terms of gamblers perception. That is not their fault. They did not ask to be perceived in that light. But we all were and they all are.
Sure, they know plenty about horses, but in my experience, probably 20 % barely knew that, meaning that 8-10 trainers are at least competent. But, probably 80% minimum knew less about wagering than an average fan. They might or might not say they do, but trust me here, they don't . I speak of my timeline at the track on my first post of certainly all of Maryland and to a lesser extent most other east coast tracks. Some more than others , depending how often I raced there. They know what they know, and gambling is not something very many know that much about.

Q. Lastly, from a trainer's perspective, would they use this to their advantage or is this simply 'smoke and mirrors'?

A. Not sure what angle you mean by using it to there advantage. If you mean from a gambling perspective, my last few paragraphs have put that question to rest, but if not, please let me know in a followup.

Q2: I've often heard that close to 40% of the money bet on any given race comes from owners and trainers and the rest from 'Joe Public'. In your experience, is this statement true or false?

A. From the trainers side this is as totally false as any statement I have ever heard. Most trainers I trained with, or against, rarely if ever bet any money. If so, in say 1980, a guy loved his horse so he bet 50 and 50 on it.
I know that many customers are sure that I am not telling the whole story but I am. The owners will bet within there means. But they typically bet on all there horses if they bet, so that is a non factor. Some owners bet 20-20 some while an extremely rich owner might bet bet 500 or 1000 across the board but they do it on all there horses or 99% of them.
OK, we have all heard about a certain ruled off trainer that said after the race the he bet 100k or something like that on the winner. Well, he never said that when they lost did he?
And the guy from New Jersey that had the video and wins 40% or whatever and brags about betting large sums on 3-5 shots. Well, if he bets on all of them , doing the math, he is getting crushed. But he only shows the video of the winners, not the losers. I guess those videos get deleted. Guys like that are similar to airplanes in that they only talk about the ones that don't land. Customers never see or hear the whole truth but I was privy to that type of info when I was there and there were just as many wise guy wannabe's then too. It's a show but all it ever showed me was how insecure most of them were. It's not the whole truth, just the portion they want you to see.


These stories circulate at the track typically by certain customers that find they need an excuse because the game is darn tough and maybe it is because the game is fixed or the guy pulled the horse last time, or this time, or whatever. But don't we read the same thing here in players talk when someone takes a knee, kicks a FG instead of going for the touchdown , etc, etc.
If you have gambling, you have these stories. Thankfully , I , having played a gambling game for a long time, actually know how wrong 99.9% of these thing are and can share the truth with players that want to find out what the track is "really like" instead of listening to someone that thinks they know.

Q. I'm a big believer in watching the tote board and one can often see some interesting movements in the odds when compared to the morning line. It's those horses attracting that attention is typically where I'll begin to look at first.

A. This, is a solid angle to be aware of. (Please do make sure that whoever is setting the morning line knows what they are doing. Most seem to, but some totally do not.) Just as there are many poor gamblers on the backside , there are also a lot of very loose lips. When information is available on a horse that is primed for a big effort, it usually gets out. And it is not just the trainer and owner betting , it is everyone that witnessed it in the morning which can be a lot, and all the people that heard about it and then, players like yourself that pay attention all be it from replays, equipment change, surface, trainer or rider change , or something else.

I applaud you for that as it is as solid a tool as there is to use. I always like checking the doubles for payouts. Why? Because as I have alluded to, most race trackers are not the most savvy bettors. They think that if they avoid the win pool nobody will notice so they wheel in the doubles. Yep, they actually do that. They play ALL into a higher takeout pool that is there for all to see after the first leg. Lol. I told you they weren't the sharpest pencils in the drawer when it comes to gambling.

Great questions. I hope I answered them well enough for you.

[str]

hey statman..the first question i'm sure str could answer but something I don't know


Q2...I doubt that..I don't think they would even account for 10% but no way to know for sure..

if i see a horse @ 5-1 ml who i think will go off @ around 3-1 and is sitting on the board @ 8-1 feel that's a bad sign

I used to pay more attention to that than I do now but I do try to avoid horses who I feel are going off higher than I think they should..but I prefer to use what I think the ml should be rather than what the track guy has it at

I agree JBEX. Finding a cold horse on the board is , from my recollection, a toss out that rarely bites you in the butt. Finding a hot horse on the board can work out much more often . At least that is how it seems.

[str]

Sir STR, I don’t know if you are able to look at replays. But if you can, can you give me your input on a horse that ran today at Santa Anita. It is race 5, 7- Beautiful Becca. The race pretty much unfolded exactly how I envision it. She would be on the outside mid pack avoiding traffic and make a run turning for home. She looked really good from gate to even after turning for home in the stretch. I was really excited. Then, I don’t know what happened, it looked like she was full of run making the final turn, then the rider just kinda sit there and didn’t make an effort to ride her to finish. I am not good at looking at horses so I just want to get your thoughts. Thank you very much in advance.

Gotta go to work now but will do this asap Mr. G and T.

[TonyP]

Sir STR, I don’t know if you are able to look at replays. But if you can, can you give me your input on a horse that ran today at Santa Anita. It is race 5, 7- Beautiful Becca. The race pretty much unfolded exactly how I envision it. She would be on the outside mid pack avoiding traffic and make a run turning for home. She looked really good from gate to even after turning for home in the stretch. I was really excited. Then, I don’t know what happened, it looked like she was full of run making the final turn, then the rider just kinda sit there and didn’t make an effort to ride her to finish. I am not good at looking at horses so I just want to get your thoughts. Thank you very much in advance.

on paper looks like he flattens out, in this race he was moving good in stretch looked like the 9 came over made him slow a little

[Statman]

Thank you STR and YES, you fully answered all my questions - Really appreciate the followup and your detailed analysis covering a variety of points. Always nice to hear a different perspective on things and how others view them. I will bring forward other questions in the future and look forward to hearing from yourself and JBEX. (One of the questions actually revolves around your handle name and JBEX on how you guys arrived at choosing those names but I'll save that for another time as I'm sure there are good stories to be told on that front). Thank you to you both.

Q1 Is there any relation to a horse's performance when a "claim" is in the box? Reason I ask is that I've often seen some horses have "blow out" wins and others finish up the track.

A1. Simple answer is no. Now I can muddy that up with maybe that was the best horse or one of the favorites or whatever but the simple straightforward answer is no.

Q. Also, why is it that tracks typically announce to the public that a claim has been made AFTER the race and not before?

A. Every track where I participated had a claim cutoff at 15 minutes. So when the claim box closes, the claims clerk must carefully read each claim for accuracy. The date, horses name, race number, signature or authorized agent signature , race number on the envelope as well and the envelope sealed all have to be perfect. If any little thing is off, including crossing a T or doting an i, the claim is voided. To show how tough it can be, if you claim a horse that was bred in say G.B. (Great Britain) and spell out the horses name and do not put next to it, G.B., exactly as the program has it, the claim is voided. It must match the program exactly.
The claims clerk must then verify funds for any and all claims with the horseman's bookkeeper. Claim money must be clear to disperse and all cash .That can take usually 3-7 or 8 minutes depending on how many claims there are. And sometimes there are multiple claims for the same horse. That can take several minutes longer.
After that, the clerk must verify eligibility of the trainer and owner. Usually that takes little time but at the beginning of a meet it can take longer.

If there are multiple claims for a horse a "shake" will occur after the race. A shake is when each claim slip is stapled to the envelope it was delivered in. They are mixed together in front of a representative for each owner and placed across a table for all to see. Then, a number is written on each similar claim, on the back of the envelope so nobody knows which is which and whose is who, 1,2,3,4 etc. Next, the corresponding numbered balls are put into a non see through bottle , shaken up, and whichever ball comes out gets the horse. This cannot happen without a representative for every owner that is involved in the shake is present to witness it.
So, with only 14 minutes to do all these tasks , they might be able to announce a claim 3-4 minutes before post but sometimes they would run out of time. The inconsistency would not fly with the public as you can imagine. Some would cry fix, or collusion or whatever, and that is understandable. As a result of all of this, they announce after the race is over.

Q. Conversely, I've been to a few harness races at Woodbine and have heard BEFORE the race goes off that claims have been entered on specific horses.

A. I suppose they could announce the intent to claim prior to the race, with maybe 8-10 minutes to post, but honestly, from a handicapping perspective, I personally would not see the relevance. Also, if a jock knew that horse was claimed and they rode extremely hard for the slightest bit of purse money, like 4th or 5th or whatever, and the horse fell, or broke down, I could only imagine the outrage that would follow. It is probably best for all parties that they announce after the race. Again, IMO I see no help to the customer by having that info prior to the race being run.


Please let me stray away from the exact questions for a minute and say the following:

Customers understandably think the "insiders" know everything and that goes for all sporting events where bets are placed. And while some do know quite a bit, a lot of these insiders are pretenders in terms of gamblers perception. That is not their fault. They did not ask to be perceived in that light. But we all were and they all are.
Sure, they know plenty about horses, but in my experience, probably 20 % barely knew that, meaning that 8-10 trainers are at least competent. But, probably 80% minimum knew less about wagering than an average fan. They might or might not say they do, but trust me here, they don't . I speak of my timeline at the track on my first post of certainly all of Maryland and to a lesser extent most other east coast tracks. Some more than others , depending how often I raced there. They know what they know, and gambling is not something very many know that much about.

Q. Lastly, from a trainer's perspective, would they use this to their advantage or is this simply 'smoke and mirrors'?

A. Not sure what angle you mean by using it to there advantage. If you mean from a gambling perspective, my last few paragraphs have put that question to rest, but if not, please let me know in a followup.

Q2: I've often heard that close to 40% of the money bet on any given race comes from owners and trainers and the rest from 'Joe Public'. In your experience, is this statement true or false?

A. From the trainers side this is as totally false as any statement I have ever heard. Most trainers I trained with, or against, rarely if ever bet any money. If so, in say 1980, a guy loved his horse so he bet 50 and 50 on it.
I know that many customers are sure that I am not telling the whole story but I am. The owners will bet within there means. But they typically bet on all there horses if they bet, so that is a non factor. Some owners bet 20-20 some while an extremely rich owner might bet bet 500 or 1000 across the board but they do it on all there horses or 99% of them.
OK, we have all heard about a certain ruled off trainer that said after the race the he bet 100k or something like that on the winner. Well, he never said that when they lost did he?
And the guy from New Jersey that had the video and wins 40% or whatever and brags about betting large sums on 3-5 shots. Well, if he bets on all of them , doing the math, he is getting crushed. But he only shows the video of the winners, not the losers. I guess those videos get deleted. Guys like that are similar to airplanes in that they only talk about the ones that don't land. Customers never see or hear the whole truth but I was privy to that type of info when I was there and there were just as many wise guy wannabe's then too. It's a show but all it ever showed me was how insecure most of them were. It's not the whole truth, just the portion they want you to see.


These stories circulate at the track typically by certain customers that find they need an excuse because the game is darn tough and maybe it is because the game is fixed or the guy pulled the horse last time, or this time, or whatever. But don't we read the same thing here in players talk when someone takes a knee, kicks a FG instead of going for the touchdown , etc, etc.
If you have gambling, you have these stories. Thankfully , I , having played a gambling game for a long time, actually know how wrong 99.9% of these thing are and can share the truth with players that want to find out what the track is "really like" instead of listening to someone that thinks they know.

Q. I'm a big believer in watching the tote board and one can often see some interesting movements in the odds when compared to the morning line. It's those horses attracting that attention is typically where I'll begin to look at first.

A. This, is a solid angle to be aware of. (Please do make sure that whoever is setting the morning line knows what they are doing. Most seem to, but some totally do not.) Just as there are many poor gamblers on the backside , there are also a lot of very loose lips. When information is available on a horse that is primed for a big effort, it usually gets out. And it is not just the trainer and owner betting , it is everyone that witnessed it in the morning which can be a lot, and all the people that heard about it and then, players like yourself that pay attention all be it from replays, equipment change, surface, trainer or rider change , or something else.

I applaud you for that as it is as solid a tool as there is to use. I always like checking the doubles for payouts. Why? Because as I have alluded to, most race trackers are not the most savvy bettors. They think that if they avoid the win pool nobody will notice so they wheel in the doubles. Yep, they actually do that. They play ALL into a higher takeout pool that is there for all to see after the first leg. Lol. I told you they weren't the sharpest pencils in the drawer when it comes to gambling.

Great questions. I hope I answered them well enough for you.

[str]

Sir STR, I don’t know if you are able to look at replays. But if you can, can you give me your input on a horse that ran today at Santa Anita. It is race 5, 7- Beautiful Becca. The race pretty much unfolded exactly how I envision it. She would be on the outside mid pack avoiding traffic and make a run turning for home. She looked really good from gate to even after turning for home in the stretch. I was really excited. Then, I don’t know what happened, it looked like she was full of run making the final turn, then the rider just kinda sit there and didn’t make an effort to ride her to finish. I am not good at looking at horses so I just want to get your thoughts. Thank you very much in advance.

Just watched it. I see what you mean how the horse was in a great spot and all looked fine and then the horse flattens out quickly.
In the replay as they went around the turn , when the 7 came up next to, and pinned the 10 I think it was, the 10 came out slightly and they did seem to bump but that is pretty typical stuff when you ride that tight. ( Tony P mentioned the 9 I think. Maybe that was it but it was around the far turn past the 3/8ths pole.)( Green and White pole).
But, from that point on, and that was a little past 1/2 way around the turn, your horse, the 7, just started to flattened out. Really impossible to say without knowing more but as a for instance, that type of effort is a prime look of a horse that could have bled. Don't know if the horse was on lasix or not, but they can bleed on lasix as well. That would be a horse I would definitely want to scope after the race just to see what is going on. Just seemed like breathing could have been the issue. Bleeding or a displaced pallet is the prime suspect unless of course it was just outrun. Just a guess but with that clean a trip you have to look for an excuse and what I mentioned would be at the front of any list of possible reasons.
If they show how many cc's of lasix a horse gets , watch to see if it increases. Of course, if it is 1st time next time, that's what happened.
Honestly, it could be a ton of things but when a horse goes from running along and in a groove to flat that quickly, it is always something unless that is the horses typical race. I doubt that.
The rider could feel the horse out of gas shortly after turning for home. He didn't switch sticks and was not riding with urgency. The rider obviously felt the horse bottom out just as they turned for home.
That is frustrating for you or the owner/trainer to watch. So good one second, all done the next.
Ugg. Tough game Mr. G and T.
Please follow up if you see any lasix or amount changes. Don't know if they show that stuff or not.
Hope that helps.
Thank you sir. Keep up the good work .

[str]

on paper looks like he flattens out, in this race he was moving good in stretch looked like the 9 came over made him slow a little

Not sure what it was but it wasn't much was it?

Those are tough to figure without more info and sometimes you never get a clear reason why.

[mrginandtonic]

Just watched it. I see what you mean how the horse was in a great spot and all looked fine and then the horse flattens out quickly.
In the replay as they went around the turn , when the 7 came up next to, and pinned the 10 I think it was, the 10 came out slightly and they did seem to bump but that is pretty typical stuff when you ride that tight. ( Tony P mentioned the 9 I think. Maybe that was it but it was around the far turn past the 3/8ths pole.)( Green and White pole).
But, from that point on, and that was a little past 1/2 way around the turn, your horse, the 7, just started to flattened out. Really impossible to say without knowing more but as a for instance, that type of effort is a prime look of a horse that could have bled. Don't know if the horse was on lasix or not, but they can bleed on lasix as well. That would be a horse I would definitely want to scope after the race just to see what is going on. Just seemed like breathing could have been the issue. Bleeding or a displaced pallet is the prime suspect unless of course it was just outrun. Just a guess but with that clean a trip you have to look for an excuse and what I mentioned would be at the front of any list of possible reasons.
If they show how many cc's of lasix a horse gets , watch to see if it increases. Of course, if it is 1st time next time, that's what happened.
Honestly, it could be a ton of things but when a horse goes from running along and in a groove to flat that quickly, it is always something unless that is the horses typical race. I doubt that.
The rider could feel the horse out of gas shortly after turning for home. He didn't switch sticks and was not riding with urgency. The rider obviously felt the horse bottom out just as they turned for home.
That is frustrating for you or the owner/trainer to watch. So good one second, all done the next.
Ugg. Tough game Mr. G and T.
Please follow up if you see any lasix or amount changes. Don't know if they show that stuff or not.
Hope that helps.
Thank you sir. Keep up the good work .

Thank you very much for your in-depth analysis. This is the comment from DRF result chart:

“BEAUTIFUL BECCA stalked three deep then outside a rival, continued three wide on the second turn and into the stretch and did not rally”

According to running line, she was 3rd, 1/2 length behind leader turning for home in the stretch. That was in perfect position.

There was no mention of any physical problem in racing form, just said did not rally. What does that mean?? But I think she should be a horse to watch next out. She has won at distance and with same running style.

Thanks again.

[TonyP]

Not sure what it was but it wasn't much was it?

Those are tough to figure without more info and sometimes you never get a clear reason why.

it was like mid stretch you know how horses do when they get between two they are chlosterphobic , dont think the 9 did anything to the 7 just passed him when the 7 had another horse inside of him

[TonyP]

Watching replays is a tool I use , this horse probably a winner next out with better post 3-09-18 SA race 5 #1

[Statman]

Hi guys - Curious to know how this part of the track works regarding the "takeout" from wagers placed. When does the takeout actually occur? Is it during the course of wagering leading up to the race or does it happen after the gates open when the race starts? We all often see a final flash of the odds happen as the horses reach the quarter pole and I'm curious to know is that the point when the takeout actually happens. Is there a way to confirm this and do all tracks typically approach it (takeout removal) in the same manner? Secondly, what are your thoughts on racing syndicates like Team Valor and West Point Thoroughbreds? Is this the best way to get into the game as a owner/part owner? At Woodbine, I've often heard the cost to keep a thoroughbred in training can be around $25k/year. Thank you again.